Thailand Property Depression

[VegasVic]

Get ready for the BIG SALE in a few years when Thai people can't pay off their creditcards, home and carloans anymore.....this people are living above their standards. Do some people here know how bad it really is with credit card debt in Thailand ??? I wonder....

Do farangs know how easy it is to get a loan for thai people or a car loan with a salary of 10,000 baht/month, you should try in the states or Europe........what a difference.........this can't keep on going like this anymore for long...........it's about too burst soon.

Get ready ?

Scottbiker

Scott, That is exactly what I meant when I said in my previous post that the Thai real estate market is heading for a meltdown. Apparently there are many folks out there that do not realize the full scope of the upcoming credit crisis in Thailand. I talked at length with 3 bankers and about 7 or 8 real estate agents this winter while I was over there and they basically all agreed about the situation at hand and are not very optimistic that a new government can get on board soon enough to tackle this problem and try to lessen the blow to the Thai economy. Good luck!

[backflip]

"Get ready for the BIG SALE in a few years..."

OK, Scott, whatever you say. You and your ilk have been predicting another crash for the past decade, so another "few years" won't make a difference.

[Naam]

anybody who buys property to live in and worries about the value is a poor man.

What a foolish statement

did you expect an intelligent statement from a fool like me?

[midas]

"Get ready for the BIG SALE in a few years..."

OK, Scott, whatever you say. You and your ilk have been predicting another crash for the past decade, so another "few years" won't make a difference.

but ten years ago Thailand didn't have to compete so vigorously for investment dollars as it does now with the likes of

China ,India, Vietnam, Cambodia - so maybe this time with no apparent end in sight to these political woes,his prediction

may be right

[jasreeve17]

anybody who buys property to live in and worries about the value is a poor man.

What a foolish statement

did you expect an intelligent statement from a fool like me?

No. You do like to "Big-up yourself", Dr Spoc.

[bingobongo]

"Get ready for the BIG SALE in a few years..."

OK, Scott, whatever you say. You and your ilk have been predicting another crash for the past decade, so another "few years" won't make a difference.

backflip,

you are in the "denial" stage of the investment cycle......

[backflip]

bongobongo,

Are you going to post that "cycle" in every forum?

midas,

"His prediction might be right"

"Might"? Sure....but don't hold your breath.

[bingobongo]

bongobongo,

Are you going to post that "cycle" in every forum?

midas,

"His prediction might be right"

"Might"? Sure....but don't hold your breath.

depends backflip, if you continue to be in "denial"

Slowing growth in housing loans foreseen: KRC

http://etna.mcot.net/query.php?nid=28699

[Dupont]

Get ready for the BIG SALE in a few years when Thai people can't pay off their creditcards, home and carloans anymore.....this people are living above their standards. Do some people here know how bad it really is with credit card debt in Thailand ??? I wonder....

Do farangs know how easy it is to get a loan for thai people or a car loan with a salary of 10,000 baht/month, you should try in the states or Europe........what a difference.........this can't keep on going like this anymore for long...........it's about too burst soon.

Get ready ?

Scottbiker

Scott, That is exactly what I meant when I said in my previous post that the Thai real estate market is heading for a meltdown. Apparently there are many folks out there that do not realize the full scope of the upcoming credit crisis in Thailand. I talked at length with 3 bankers and about 7 or 8 real estate agents this winter while I was over there and they basically all agreed about the situation at hand and are not very optimistic that a new government can get on board soon enough to tackle this problem and try to lessen the blow to the Thai economy. Good luck!

My wife got 600,000 baht credit on our pickup truck! She showed 6,000 baht a month income and me , just me and I didn't have to show anything

Her monthy payments are 14,500 per month, more than twice her salary!

[Phil Conners]

My wife got 600,000 baht credit on our pickup truck! She showed 6,000 baht a month income and me , just me and I didn't have to show anything

Her monthy payments are 14,500 per month, more than twice her salary!

I think you must have had a considerable down payment to get this credit, something like 40-50% ... right?

[MarcHolt]

Most of my net worth is in commercial real estate in the different areas of the US, mostly partnerships in tall office buildings. I agree with some who are down on Thailand in that I am not pulling vast amounts of my net worth and plugging it into Thai assets at this time. However, the money I have brought over in the last six years and invested in condos, land, aircraft, and stocks has done quite well. Will it continue to do so, who knows? If nothing else these Thai investments have been a wonderful hedge against the crashing dollar. Also, I am generally optimistic on condo investing (not speculating) in Hua Hin and Bangkok, markets where I live. This is based on the feeling I get that Thailand is becoming a more attractive location to live for foreigners and looks like it will continue to progress. This has nothing to do with the daily drama of Thai politics or the housing loan situation in Lampang.

There is just a critical mass of foreigners that has arrived in the last 3 years and the ever increasing numbers make it easier to live here as the comforts of home appear here in Thailand for the masses of Scandis, Brits, and others arriving. That said, the condo market in Bangkok particularly, as well as Hua Hin, will be dominated by other Asians seeking inexpensive second homes close to their native land.

As a real estate agent I am inclined to agree. The Thai property market doesn't follow the Western model. The property owning Thais tend to hunker down and hold onto their assets whenever there is a financial crisis. Now that a large number of foreigners are in the property market this may change, but so far I haven't seen any evidence of it. A few clients have reduced their asking price, but overall prices have flattened out over the last 12 months. I don't see a downward trend. When the market picks up again prices will start rising again.

Once again the doomsayers are predicting a property 'meltdown'. Once again they are wrong. Demand is high, and at the moment there are plenty of condos for sale. But no one is rushing in to grab them while the current political instability persists.

When things do start moving again you can expect plenty of these condos to be in high demand again. In other words, this is a good time to invest if you can wait it out.

As to the rumors that I am selling out: As usual, the rumor mongers have it only partly right.

I have the Holt WorldWide up for sale, which is the umbrella company for my IT and real estate businesses. But I am not selling out because of the property market. In fact, my property business is doing very well thank you. Instead of small home and condo buyers, however, my main clients now are big buyers; hotels, golf courses, large land plots, buildings, etc.

The main reason I am planning to move back to Australia is purely personal. My mother is 83 years old and she wants my kids around during her last years. I will continue to maintain a business here, whether I sell the company or not. I think Thailand has a great future. It has a solid manufacturing and agricultural base. Not even the men in green can destroy that without going all out.

Cooler heads are starting to make their voices heard to the government and I believe once the green morons...sorry, government is voted out of office, it will be business as usual and many of the rules they are bringing in now will be overturned for the stupid ideas that they are.

Don't give up on Thailand folks. But do keep your heads down right now. Wait and see. If you want to keep up with the latest news subscribe to my newsletter. You will get an honest and realistic assessment of the property market each month. Opt in at holt-realty.com. Hope you join!

[solo siam]

In regards to the car credit, Its a little different here than say in the UK in that 2nd hand car prices are very high, a car loses about 10% in value a year here, whereas in the UK you've lost 30% when you drive it off the forecourt and a 6-7 year old car is almost worthless.

In terms of property, I've been hearing the same doom and gloom for 5 or 6 years, as long as its so expensive elsewhere in the world I don't see the property prices slumping here anytime soon - Seriously you can buy a luxury 4 bedroom villa with a swimming pool for the same price as a 1 bedroom flat in a dangerous part of the UK.

[stevieff]

Most of my net worth is in commercial real estate in the different areas of the US, mostly partnerships in tall office buildings. I agree with some who are down on Thailand in that I am not pulling vast amounts of my net worth and plugging it into Thai assets at this time. However, the money I have brought over in the last six years and invested in condos, land, aircraft, and stocks has done quite well. Will it continue to do so, who knows? If nothing else these Thai investments have been a wonderful hedge against the crashing dollar. Also, I am generally optimistic on condo investing (not speculating) in Hua Hin and Bangkok, markets where I live. This is based on the feeling I get that Thailand is becoming a more attractive location to live for foreigners and looks like it will continue to progress. This has nothing to do with the daily drama of Thai politics or the housing loan situation in Lampang.

There is just a critical mass of foreigners that has arrived in the last 3 years and the ever increasing numbers make it easier to live here as the comforts of home appear here in Thailand for the masses of Scandis, Brits, and others arriving. That said, the condo market in Bangkok particularly, as well as Hua Hin, will be dominated by other Asians seeking inexpensive second homes close to their native land.

As a real estate agent I am inclined to agree. The Thai property market doesn't follow the Western model. The property owning Thais tend to hunker down and hold onto their assets whenever there is a financial crisis. Now that a large number of foreigners are in the property market this may change, but so far I haven't seen any evidence of it. A few clients have reduced their asking price, but overall prices have flattened out over the last 12 months. I don't see a downward trend. When the market picks up again prices will start rising again.

Once again the doomsayers are predicting a property 'meltdown'. Once again they are wrong. Demand is high, and at the moment there are plenty of condos for sale. But no one is rushing in to grab them while the current political instability persists.

When things do start moving again you can expect plenty of these condos to be in high demand again. In other words, this is a good time to invest if you can wait it out.

As to the rumors that I am selling out: As usual, the rumor mongers have it only partly right.

I have the Holt WorldWide up for sale, which is the umbrella company for my IT and real estate businesses. But I am not selling out because of the property market. In fact, my property business is doing very well thank you. Instead of small home and condo buyers, however, my main clients now are big buyers; hotels, golf courses, large land plots, buildings, etc.

The main reason I am planning to move back to Australia is purely personal. My mother is 83 years old and she wants my kids around during her last years. I will continue to maintain a business here, whether I sell the company or not. I think Thailand has a great future. It has a solid manufacturing and agricultural base. Not even the men in green can destroy that without going all out.

Cooler heads are starting to make their voices heard to the government and I believe once the green morons...sorry, government is voted out of office, it will be business as usual and many of the rules they are bringing in now will be overturned for the stupid ideas that they are.

Don't give up on Thailand folks. But do keep your heads down right now. Wait and see. If you want to keep up with the latest news subscribe to my newsletter. You will get an honest and realistic assessment of the property market each month. Opt in at holt-realty.com. Hope you join!

Most intelligent post I've read in several months. If people expect a real estate price melt-down in Thailand, forget it, it won't happen. Thai's will sit on it forever and will never reduce prices.

[Guest madcow]

Most intelligent post I've read in several months. If people expect a real estate price melt-down in Thailand, forget it, it won't happen. Thai's will sit on it forever and will never reduce prices.

The thing with Real Estate is that everyone looks at it from a different angle .

I will try to explain .

Recently I put two houses on the market in a town in Australia . The town has a population of perhaps 15,000 . It services a huge area of cattle stations , mines , mango and vegetable farms as well as a Airforce Base . There are two Real Estate agents in the town . Between the two they had perhaps a dozen residential properties in the books , all in my opinion at unreasonably high prices . The same town has an abundance of rental properties , flats , apartments , houses etc all occupied . Very few places to rent or buy .

Is the town prospering ? Of course ! The economy is rocketing along , all the local businesses are doing well , everyone has employement , cattle prices are up , commodities prices are up .

Everyone doing well .... except .... the local real estate agents .... they have nothing to sell !

Incidentally my two houses sold within three weeks of listing , I made a good profit and am now cashed up waiting for opportunities in yep you guessed it Thailand !

Which brings me to the Thai Real Estate market . This I have been watching for a number of years , and see irrational exuberance slowly but surely coming to an end .

Developers have been building like there is no end to buyers , and banks have been shovelling money out the door like there is no tomorrow . But all of a sudden where have all the buyers gone ?

What will happen next is the developers stop developing , down tools , all the thousands of people employed in the building trade without a job , no income , no sanook , sell the new motorbike , the new car , whatever , even perhaps the new house .

Recent changes in govt. policies , and we all know what they are , no need for me to mention again , mean that very few foreigners will be buying houses , but more importantly and something that everyone seems to have overlooked is that many foreigners will be forced to bail out of there rented accomodation . This will put further pressure on the housing market , forcing more houses into the market and will have the effect of driving down prices .

In this scenario is the Thai economy going well , no its not , it is certainly on very shaky ground at the moment and getting more so by the day , and in my opinion nothing the government nor the banks can do to prevent a fall . They are certainly aware of the dangers to come , and are making no secret of it .

Now back to the Real Estate agent , whats his point of view ? He has plenty to sell , and more people coming through the door everyday wanting to sell their properties . One only has to look at some of the real estate websites , there are literally thousands of condos and houses on the market . All the property he,s sold over the last few years has enabled him to expand , move into bigger , flasher premises , employ more staff , upgrade his lifestyle and invest in several properties himself . Any agent who is old enough and wise enough will know the bubble is about to burst and will be well insured against it . There will be countless many however who are not prepared and will find all of a sudden they have heaps to sell , but little or no sales .

There will of course be some agents who weather out the storm , these are the ones that give sellers an honest expectation of what their home is worth , and as sellers become a little more desperate , some houses will continue to sell .

So for any agent to tell you it is all blue sky at the moment ..... crap ! They are going to have to work harder , smarter , and be a lot more realistic than they have been for many years .

Something many of them won,t be able to achieve . In summary , agents will tell you now is a good time to buy , simply because for them , they need to sell , and for anyone looking for property , if you see something you like and are comfortable with the price , then by all means , go for it , for me though and for anyone not in a hurry , property prices must go down . Cant do otherwise .

[andy1308]

Most of my net worth is in commercial real estate in the different areas of the US, mostly partnerships in tall office buildings. I agree with some who are down on Thailand in that I am not pulling vast amounts of my net worth and plugging it into Thai assets at this time. However, the money I have brought over in the last six years and invested in condos, land, aircraft, and stocks has done quite well. Will it continue to do so, who knows? If nothing else these Thai investments have been a wonderful hedge against the crashing dollar. Also, I am generally optimistic on condo investing (not speculating) in Hua Hin and Bangkok, markets where I live. This is based on the feeling I get that Thailand is becoming a more attractive location to live for foreigners and looks like it will continue to progress. This has nothing to do with the daily drama of Thai politics or the housing loan situation in Lampang.

There is just a critical mass of foreigners that has arrived in the last 3 years and the ever increasing numbers make it easier to live here as the comforts of home appear here in Thailand for the masses of Scandis, Brits, and others arriving. That said, the condo market in Bangkok particularly, as well as Hua Hin, will be dominated by other Asians seeking inexpensive second homes close to their native land.

As a real estate agent I am inclined to agree. The Thai property market doesn't follow the Western model. The property owning Thais tend to hunker down and hold onto their assets whenever there is a financial crisis. Now that a large number of foreigners are in the property market this may change, but so far I haven't seen any evidence of it. A few clients have reduced their asking price, but overall prices have flattened out over the last 12 months. I don't see a downward trend. When the market picks up again prices will start rising again.

Once again the doomsayers are predicting a property 'meltdown'. Once again they are wrong. Demand is high, and at the moment there are plenty of condos for sale. But no one is rushing in to grab them while the current political instability persists.

When things do start moving again you can expect plenty of these condos to be in high demand again. In other words, this is a good time to invest if you can wait it out.

As to the rumors that I am selling out: As usual, the rumor mongers have it only partly right.

I have the Holt WorldWide up for sale, which is the umbrella company for my IT and real estate businesses. But I am not selling out because of the property market. In fact, my property business is doing very well thank you. Instead of small home and condo buyers, however, my main clients now are big buyers; hotels, golf courses, large land plots, buildings, etc.

The main reason I am planning to move back to Australia is purely personal. My mother is 83 years old and she wants my kids around during her last years. I will continue to maintain a business here, whether I sell the company or not. I think Thailand has a great future. It has a solid manufacturing and agricultural base. Not even the men in green can destroy that without going all out.

Cooler heads are starting to make their voices heard to the government and I believe once the green morons...sorry, government is voted out of office, it will be business as usual and many of the rules they are bringing in now will be overturned for the stupid ideas that they are.

Don't give up on Thailand folks. But do keep your heads down right now. Wait and see. If you want to keep up with the latest news subscribe to my newsletter. You will get an honest and realistic assessment of the property market each month. Opt in at holt-realty.com. Hope you join!

Most intelligent post I've read in several months. If people expect a real estate price melt-down in Thailand, forget it, it won't happen. Thai's will sit on it forever and will never reduce prices.

If anything Thai's will increase their prices in the event of a slow market. It's happening now in other sectors. Poor sales in other parts of the world means sales and price reductions, but here it's an excuse to raise prices to cope with the loss of income. That's what makes Thailand unqiue.

[stevieff]

Most of my net worth is in commercial real estate in the different areas of the US, mostly partnerships in tall office buildings. I agree with some who are down on Thailand in that I am not pulling vast amounts of my net worth and plugging it into Thai assets at this time. However, the money I have brought over in the last six years and invested in condos, land, aircraft, and stocks has done quite well. Will it continue to do so, who knows? If nothing else these Thai investments have been a wonderful hedge against the crashing dollar. Also, I am generally optimistic on condo investing (not speculating) in Hua Hin and Bangkok, markets where I live. This is based on the feeling I get that Thailand is becoming a more attractive location to live for foreigners and looks like it will continue to progress. This has nothing to do with the daily drama of Thai politics or the housing loan situation in Lampang.

There is just a critical mass of foreigners that has arrived in the last 3 years and the ever increasing numbers make it easier to live here as the comforts of home appear here in Thailand for the masses of Scandis, Brits, and others arriving. That said, the condo market in Bangkok particularly, as well as Hua Hin, will be dominated by other Asians seeking inexpensive second homes close to their native land.

As a real estate agent I am inclined to agree. The Thai property market doesn't follow the Western model. The property owning Thais tend to hunker down and hold onto their assets whenever there is a financial crisis. Now that a large number of foreigners are in the property market this may change, but so far I haven't seen any evidence of it. A few clients have reduced their asking price, but overall prices have flattened out over the last 12 months. I don't see a downward trend. When the market picks up again prices will start rising again.

Once again the doomsayers are predicting a property 'meltdown'. Once again they are wrong. Demand is high, and at the moment there are plenty of condos for sale. But no one is rushing in to grab them while the current political instability persists.

When things do start moving again you can expect plenty of these condos to be in high demand again. In other words, this is a good time to invest if you can wait it out.

As to the rumors that I am selling out: As usual, the rumor mongers have it only partly right.

I have the Holt WorldWide up for sale, which is the umbrella company for my IT and real estate businesses. But I am not selling out because of the property market. In fact, my property business is doing very well thank you. Instead of small home and condo buyers, however, my main clients now are big buyers; hotels, golf courses, large land plots, buildings, etc.

The main reason I am planning to move back to Australia is purely personal. My mother is 83 years old and she wants my kids around during her last years. I will continue to maintain a business here, whether I sell the company or not. I think Thailand has a great future. It has a solid manufacturing and agricultural base. Not even the men in green can destroy that without going all out.

Cooler heads are starting to make their voices heard to the government and I believe once the green morons...sorry, government is voted out of office, it will be business as usual and many of the rules they are bringing in now will be overturned for the stupid ideas that they are.

Don't give up on Thailand folks. But do keep your heads down right now. Wait and see. If you want to keep up with the latest news subscribe to my newsletter. You will get an honest and realistic assessment of the property market each month. Opt in at holt-realty.com. Hope you join!

Most intelligent post I've read in several months. If people expect a real estate price melt-down in Thailand, forget it, it won't happen. Thai's will sit on it forever and will never reduce prices.

If anything Thai's will increase their prices in the event of a slow market. It's happening now in other sectors. Poor sales in other parts of the world means sales and price reductions, but here it's an excuse to raise prices to cope with the loss of income. That's what makes Thailand unqiue.

Exactly. People can wait for a price melt-down, show all the economic data they want to inferring a melt-down and yet it will not happen in Thailand.

[Heng]

Get ready for the BIG SALE in a few years when Thai people can't pay off their creditcards, home and carloans anymore.....this people are living above their standards.

Get ready ?

Scottbiker

There are "big sales" going on all the time (foreclosures, seizures, etc.)... and the people buying are also Thai. There are the Thais living on credit and the ones who are not. They are getting rid of the business exception tax on property purchases... that's not the first time they've done it. That is historically the signal to Thai real estate holders to buy. And that's what we do every time this cycle comes around again.

[shochu]

Heng,

your wisdom is infinite,

and,

your wit on some other posts always put a smile on my face,

Cheers

[Nawtilus]

Madcow...was that in Katherine ?

[Guest madcow]

Madcow...was that in Katherine ?

Yes , it was . Full marks .

[Nawtilus]

I used to live there, the airforce base gave it away really.

[pkrv]

Ok I will bite; War is something I wish to not partake in. I am guessing you are talking about one of many of Americas’ many conflicts. It is interesting that as an American war broadened your horizons?

Thailand and its history, is quite murky, even the intellects I have spoken with are not very knowledgeable on the subject.

To some extent I think this subject (of history) needs to be aired and needs its proper place on this forum. That a place I may call home (This is not arrogance, quite frankly my credit card is sufficient for most apartment purchases), needs to understand itself.

I’m afraid that there is going to be a lot more interest in Thailand in future, its history would actually help (after all the English invented the concentrations camps during the Boer War what could be worse than that?)

This is not a dig some things seem to be unspoken, not good news.

[VegasVic]

Most of my net worth is in commercial real estate in the different areas of the US, mostly partnerships in tall office buildings. I agree with some who are down on Thailand in that I am not pulling vast amounts of my net worth and plugging it into Thai assets at this time. However, the money I have brought over in the last six years and invested in condos, land, aircraft, and stocks has done quite well. Will it continue to do so, who knows? If nothing else these Thai investments have been a wonderful hedge against the crashing dollar. Also, I am generally optimistic on condo investing (not speculating) in Hua Hin and Bangkok, markets where I live. This is based on the feeling I get that Thailand is becoming a more attractive location to live for foreigners and looks like it will continue to progress. This has nothing to do with the daily drama of Thai politics or the housing loan situation in Lampang.

There is just a critical mass of foreigners that has arrived in the last 3 years and the ever increasing numbers make it easier to live here as the comforts of home appear here in Thailand for the masses of Scandis, Brits, and others arriving. That said, the condo market in Bangkok particularly, as well as Hua Hin, will be dominated by other Asians seeking inexpensive second homes close to their native land.

As a real estate agent I am inclined to agree. The Thai property market doesn't follow the Western model. The property owning Thais tend to hunker down and hold onto their assets whenever there is a financial crisis. Now that a large number of foreigners are in the property market this may change, but so far I haven't seen any evidence of it. A few clients have reduced their asking price, but overall prices have flattened out over the last 12 months. I don't see a downward trend. When the market picks up again prices will start rising again.

Once again the doomsayers are predicting a property 'meltdown'. Once again they are wrong. Demand is high, and at the moment there are plenty of condos for sale. But no one is rushing in to grab them while the current political instability persists.

When things do start moving again you can expect plenty of these condos to be in high demand again. In other words, this is a good time to invest if you can wait it out.

As to the rumors that I am selling out: As usual, the rumor mongers have it only partly right.

I have the Holt WorldWide up for sale, which is the umbrella company for my IT and real estate businesses. But I am not selling out because of the property market. In fact, my property business is doing very well thank you. Instead of small home and condo buyers, however, my main clients now are big buyers; hotels, golf courses, large land plots, buildings, etc.

The main reason I am planning to move back to Australia is purely personal. My mother is 83 years old and she wants my kids around during her last years. I will continue to maintain a business here, whether I sell the company or not. I think Thailand has a great future. It has a solid manufacturing and agricultural base. Not even the men in green can destroy that without going all out.

Cooler heads are starting to make their voices heard to the government and I believe once the green morons...sorry, government is voted out of office, it will be business as usual and many of the rules they are bringing in now will be overturned for the stupid ideas that they are.

Don't give up on Thailand folks. But do keep your heads down right now. Wait and see. If you want to keep up with the latest news subscribe to my newsletter. You will get an honest and realistic assessment of the property market each month. Opt in at holt-realty.com. Hope you join!

Most intelligent post I've read in several months. If people expect a real estate price melt-down in Thailand, forget it, it won't happen. Thai's will sit on it forever and will never reduce prices.

If anything Thai's will increase their prices in the event of a slow market. It's happening now in other sectors. Poor sales in other parts of the world means sales and price reductions, but here it's an excuse to raise prices to cope with the loss of income. That's what makes Thailand unqiue.

Exactly. People can wait for a price melt-down, show all the economic data they want to inferring a melt-down and yet it will not happen in Thailand.

Stevie, Right on man a melt down can never happen in Thailand, right? People like you were saying the same thing back in 1997 and look what happened. You are obviously in denial about what is currently going on in the Thai economy, you might want to check out a very insightful associated press article in the business section of todays International Herald Tribune. The first sentence in the article is "Four asain nations hit hard by the 1997-98 financial crisis face renewed vulnerability to sudden capital outflows that could cause a currency crisis". I will let you take a wild guess as to which asian nation was first on that list. The Thai finance minister who recently resigned was very well aware of the situation, but apparently his arguments fell on deaf (or perhaps corrupt) ears in the current administration. You don't have to be able to read tea leaves, the signs are all there for anybody to see, just open up your eyes and do a little research as to what occured back in 1997 and then look at the current situation in Thailand.

[LaoPo]

Interesting thread !

MarcHolt is a very good promotor and maybe even a better salesman. I don't know, but I like that.

If he's leaving Thailand for mainly private reasons, his 83 year old mother, remains a question we can't be sure of...(don't wish to insult you MarcHolt !) since real estate people not always tell the -full- truth; I know, since I'm in that business myself, but not as a seller.

However, I think MarcHolt is an intelligent businessman, too intelligent to give up a very prosperous real estate business (his umbrella company) just because of this private reason.

My thoughts ?

He's following the geographical real estate market (now prosperous back home in Australia) and that's clever.

What surprises me is that a lot of posters just talk about "what's happening in Thailand" (obviously, since this is a Thai related website) and are thus, very inwardly looking, losing sight of what's happening in the Asian region, the rest of the World, the US$, Euro, Yen and other -mainly- economical important factors such as declining incoming tourists, mainly from Asian countries (Asian tourism is more than 60% of total incoming tourism in Thailand !).

The fact that there are thousands of houses/condos/apartments for sale in the Bangkok area alone, isn't really a -short term- promising outlook for sellers and real estate agents.

Heng said it right. When the market is down 'they' buy; but that's just a very small portion of the buyers. The 'normal' buyers are sitting in their chairs, sitting still as you have to sit still having a (hair)-cut.

The question remains: who are the sellers ?

I'm following international political, financial and economical news on a daily basis and I'm sensing worldwide heavy weather, not just in Thailand...we'll see.

But, as I said at the beginning:

Interesting thread

LaoPo

[Heng]

Heng,

your wisdom is infinite,

and,

your wit on some other posts always put a smile on my face,

Cheers

Thanks Shochu.

*signs autograph*

It's fans like you that make it all worthwhile.

-Heng

edit: p.s. I am not Shochu

Edited April 20, 2007 by Heng

[craigt3365]

I think a big factor here could be China. I am there now and it is amazing at the construction in progress. If this places melts down, like they are predicting it will, all of Asia will be hard hit. Especially if the US falls in line also...

[stevieff]

Most of my net worth is in commercial real estate in the different areas of the US, mostly partnerships in tall office buildings. I agree with some who are down on Thailand in that I am not pulling vast amounts of my net worth and plugging it into Thai assets at this time. However, the money I have brought over in the last six years and invested in condos, land, aircraft, and stocks has done quite well. Will it continue to do so, who knows? If nothing else these Thai investments have been a wonderful hedge against the crashing dollar. Also, I am generally optimistic on condo investing (not speculating) in Hua Hin and Bangkok, markets where I live. This is based on the feeling I get that Thailand is becoming a more attractive location to live for foreigners and looks like it will continue to progress. This has nothing to do with the daily drama of Thai politics or the housing loan situation in Lampang.

There is just a critical mass of foreigners that has arrived in the last 3 years and the ever increasing numbers make it easier to live here as the comforts of home appear here in Thailand for the masses of Scandis, Brits, and others arriving. That said, the condo market in Bangkok particularly, as well as Hua Hin, will be dominated by other Asians seeking inexpensive second homes close to their native land.

As a real estate agent I am inclined to agree. The Thai property market doesn't follow the Western model. The property owning Thais tend to hunker down and hold onto their assets whenever there is a financial crisis. Now that a large number of foreigners are in the property market this may change, but so far I haven't seen any evidence of it. A few clients have reduced their asking price, but overall prices have flattened out over the last 12 months. I don't see a downward trend. When the market picks up again prices will start rising again.

Once again the doomsayers are predicting a property 'meltdown'. Once again they are wrong. Demand is high, and at the moment there are plenty of condos for sale. But no one is rushing in to grab them while the current political instability persists.

When things do start moving again you can expect plenty of these condos to be in high demand again. In other words, this is a good time to invest if you can wait it out.

As to the rumors that I am selling out: As usual, the rumor mongers have it only partly right.

I have the Holt WorldWide up for sale, which is the umbrella company for my IT and real estate businesses. But I am not selling out because of the property market. In fact, my property business is doing very well thank you. Instead of small home and condo buyers, however, my main clients now are big buyers; hotels, golf courses, large land plots, buildings, etc.

The main reason I am planning to move back to Australia is purely personal. My mother is 83 years old and she wants my kids around during her last years. I will continue to maintain a business here, whether I sell the company or not. I think Thailand has a great future. It has a solid manufacturing and agricultural base. Not even the men in green can destroy that without going all out.

Cooler heads are starting to make their voices heard to the government and I believe once the green morons...sorry, government is voted out of office, it will be business as usual and many of the rules they are bringing in now will be overturned for the stupid ideas that they are.

Don't give up on Thailand folks. But do keep your heads down right now. Wait and see. If you want to keep up with the latest news subscribe to my newsletter. You will get an honest and realistic assessment of the property market each month. Opt in at holt-realty.com. Hope you join!

Most intelligent post I've read in several months. If people expect a real estate price melt-down in Thailand, forget it, it won't happen. Thai's will sit on it forever and will never reduce prices.

If anything Thai's will increase their prices in the event of a slow market. It's happening now in other sectors. Poor sales in other parts of the world means sales and price reductions, but here it's an excuse to raise prices to cope with the loss of income. That's what makes Thailand unqiue.

Exactly. People can wait for a price melt-down, show all the economic data they want to inferring a melt-down and yet it will not happen in Thailand.

Stevie, Right on man a melt down can never happen in Thailand, right? People like you were saying the same thing back in 1997 and look what happened. You are obviously in denial about what is currently going on in the Thai economy, you might want to check out a very insightful associated press article in the business section of todays International Herald Tribune. The first sentence in the article is "Four asain nations hit hard by the 1997-98 financial crisis face renewed vulnerability to sudden capital outflows that could cause a currency crisis". I will let you take a wild guess as to which asian nation was first on that list. The Thai finance minister who recently resigned was very well aware of the situation, but apparently his arguments fell on deaf (or perhaps corrupt) ears in the current administration. You don't have to be able to read tea leaves, the signs are all there for anybody to see, just open up your eyes and do a little research as to what occured back in 1997 and then look at the current situation in Thailand.

Thank you for your long and rambling economic dissertation. Did anything you said effect the price of real property, land, etc., then? Real estate prices (in baht terms) didn't drop then, it only became more reasonable for foreigners to buy it because of currency de-valuation. To replicate the 1997 scenario, in 1997 real estate prices, the baht would have lose over 100 percent of it's current position. Do you really think that's likely? I mean, that is what you're suggesting.

[quiksilva]

China's principal influence on the Thai real estate market has been their demand for construction materials, which drove up development costs here.

A cooling off of demand from that market could be a blessing for those with construction projects in hand, whether you see any of those benefits passed on to the consumer however...

Real estate markets are dependant upon local supply and demand and most of the demand here comes from Thais, no matter how much some Expats like to think the world revolves around them.

I think what you are really alluding to with the US, (Thailand's largest consumer of exported goods) is their inevitable slow down in their Economy.

This could have an impact on local business confidence and individual purchasing power, which of course will have negative ramifications for the real estate market as whole.

[stevieff]

Most of my net worth is in commercial real estate in the different areas of the US, mostly partnerships in tall office buildings. I agree with some who are down on Thailand in that I am not pulling vast amounts of my net worth and plugging it into Thai assets at this time. However, the money I have brought over in the last six years and invested in condos, land, aircraft, and stocks has done quite well. Will it continue to do so, who knows? If nothing else these Thai investments have been a wonderful hedge against the crashing dollar. Also, I am generally optimistic on condo investing (not speculating) in Hua Hin and Bangkok, markets where I live. This is based on the feeling I get that Thailand is becoming a more attractive location to live for foreigners and looks like it will continue to progress. This has nothing to do with the daily drama of Thai politics or the housing loan situation in Lampang.

There is just a critical mass of foreigners that has arrived in the last 3 years and the ever increasing numbers make it easier to live here as the comforts of home appear here in Thailand for the masses of Scandis, Brits, and others arriving. That said, the condo market in Bangkok particularly, as well as Hua Hin, will be dominated by other Asians seeking inexpensive second homes close to their native land.

As a real estate agent I am inclined to agree. The Thai property market doesn't follow the Western model. The property owning Thais tend to hunker down and hold onto their assets whenever there is a financial crisis. Now that a large number of foreigners are in the property market this may change, but so far I haven't seen any evidence of it. A few clients have reduced their asking price, but overall prices have flattened out over the last 12 months. I don't see a downward trend. When the market picks up again prices will start rising again.

Once again the doomsayers are predicting a property 'meltdown'. Once again they are wrong. Demand is high, and at the moment there are plenty of condos for sale. But no one is rushing in to grab them while the current political instability persists.

When things do start moving again you can expect plenty of these condos to be in high demand again. In other words, this is a good time to invest if you can wait it out.

As to the rumors that I am selling out: As usual, the rumor mongers have it only partly right.

I have the Holt WorldWide up for sale, which is the umbrella company for my IT and real estate businesses. But I am not selling out because of the property market. In fact, my property business is doing very well thank you. Instead of small home and condo buyers, however, my main clients now are big buyers; hotels, golf courses, large land plots, buildings, etc.

The main reason I am planning to move back to Australia is purely personal. My mother is 83 years old and she wants my kids around during her last years. I will continue to maintain a business here, whether I sell the company or not. I think Thailand has a great future. It has a solid manufacturing and agricultural base. Not even the men in green can destroy that without going all out.

Cooler heads are starting to make their voices heard to the government and I believe once the green morons...sorry, government is voted out of office, it will be business as usual and many of the rules they are bringing in now will be overturned for the stupid ideas that they are.

Don't give up on Thailand folks. But do keep your heads down right now. Wait and see. If you want to keep up with the latest news subscribe to my newsletter. You will get an honest and realistic assessment of the property market each month. Opt in at holt-realty.com. Hope you join!

Most intelligent post I've read in several months. If people expect a real estate price melt-down in Thailand, forget it, it won't happen. Thai's will sit on it forever and will never reduce prices.

If anything Thai's will increase their prices in the event of a slow market. It's happening now in other sectors. Poor sales in other parts of the world means sales and price reductions, but here it's an excuse to raise prices to cope with the loss of income. That's what makes Thailand unqiue.

Exactly. People can wait for a price melt-down, show all the economic data they want to inferring a melt-down and yet it will not happen in Thailand.

Stevie, Right on man a melt down can never happen in Thailand, right? People like you were saying the same thing back in 1997 and look what happened. You are obviously in denial about what is currently going on in the Thai economy, you might want to check out a very insightful associated press article in the business section of todays International Herald Tribune. The first sentence in the article is "Four asain nations hit hard by the 1997-98 financial crisis face renewed vulnerability to sudden capital outflows that could cause a currency crisis". I will let you take a wild guess as to which asian nation was first on that list. The Thai finance minister who recently resigned was very well aware of the situation, but apparently his arguments fell on deaf (or perhaps corrupt) ears in the current administration. You don't have to be able to read tea leaves, the signs are all there for anybody to see, just open up your eyes and do a little research as to what occured back in 1997 and then look at the current situation in Thailand.

BTW, Vegas, just to clarify, my previous comments had to with a real estate price melt-down. I suppose I didn't clarify that, but since the topic thread is Thailand property depression, I assumed you would know we were talking about real estate prices.

[pkrv]

Most of my net worth is in commercial real estate in the different areas of the US, mostly partnerships in tall office buildings. I agree with some who are down on Thailand in that I am not pulling vast amounts of my net worth and plugging it into Thai assets at this time. However, the money I have brought over in the last six years and invested in condos, land, aircraft, and stocks has done quite well. Will it continue to do so, who knows? If nothing else these Thai investments have been a wonderful hedge against the crashing dollar. Also, I am generally optimistic on condo investing (not speculating) in Hua Hin and Bangkok, markets where I live. This is based on the feeling I get that Thailand is becoming a more attractive location to live for foreigners and looks like it will continue to progress. This has nothing to do with the daily drama of Thai politics or the housing loan situation in Lampang.

There is just a critical mass of foreigners that has arrived in the last 3 years and the ever increasing numbers make it easier to live here as the comforts of home appear here in Thailand for the masses of Scandis, Brits, and others arriving. That said, the condo market in Bangkok particularly, as well as Hua Hin, will be dominated by other Asians seeking inexpensive second homes close to their native land.

As a real estate agent I am inclined to agree. The Thai property market doesn't follow the Western model. The property owning Thais tend to hunker down and hold onto their assets whenever there is a financial crisis. Now that a large number of foreigners are in the property market this may change, but so far I haven't seen any evidence of it. A few clients have reduced their asking price, but overall prices have flattened out over the last 12 months. I don't see a downward trend. When the market picks up again prices will start rising again.

Once again the doomsayers are predicting a property 'meltdown'. Once again they are wrong. Demand is high, and at the moment there are plenty of condos for sale. But no one is rushing in to grab them while the current political instability persists.

When things do start moving again you can expect plenty of these condos to be in high demand again. In other words, this is a good time to invest if you can wait it out.

As to the rumors that I am selling out: As usual, the rumor mongers have it only partly right.

I have the Holt WorldWide up for sale, which is the umbrella company for my IT and real estate businesses. But I am not selling out because of the property market. In fact, my property business is doing very well thank you. Instead of small home and condo buyers, however, my main clients now are big buyers; hotels, golf courses, large land plots, buildings, etc.

The main reason I am planning to move back to Australia is purely personal. My mother is 83 years old and she wants my kids around during her last years. I will continue to maintain a business here, whether I sell the company or not. I think Thailand has a great future. It has a solid manufacturing and agricultural base. Not even the men in green can destroy that without going all out.

Cooler heads are starting to make their voices heard to the government and I believe once the green morons...sorry, government is voted out of office, it will be business as usual and many of the rules they are bringing in now will be overturned for the stupid ideas that they are.

Don't give up on Thailand folks. But do keep your heads down right now. Wait and see. If you want to keep up with the latest news subscribe to my newsletter. You will get an honest and realistic assessment of the property market each month. Opt in at holt-realty.com. Hope you join!

Most intelligent post I've read in several months. If people expect a real estate price melt-down in Thailand, forget it, it won't happen. Thai's will sit on it forever and will never reduce prices.

If anything Thai's will increase their prices in the event of a slow market. It's happening now in other sectors. Poor sales in other parts of the world means sales and price reductions, but here it's an excuse to raise prices to cope with the loss of income. That's what makes Thailand unqiue.

Exactly. People can wait for a price melt-down, show all the economic data they want to inferring a melt-down and yet it will not happen in Thailand.

Stevie, Right on man a melt down can never happen in Thailand, right? People like you were saying the same thing back in 1997 and look what happened. You are obviously in denial about what is currently going on in the Thai economy, you might want to check out a very insightful associated press article in the business section of todays International Herald Tribune. The first sentence in the article is "Four asain nations hit hard by the 1997-98 financial crisis face renewed vulnerability to sudden capital outflows that could cause a currency crisis". I will let you take a wild guess as to which asian nation was first on that list. The Thai finance minister who recently resigned was very well aware of the situation, but apparently his arguments fell on deaf (or perhaps corrupt) ears in the current administration. You don't have to be able to read tea leaves, the signs are all there for anybody to see, just open up your eyes and do a little research as to what occured back in 1997 and then look at the current situation in Thailand.

Thank you for your long and rambling economic dissertation. Did anything you said effect the price of real property, land, etc., then? Real estate prices (in baht terms) didn't drop then, it only became more reasonable for foreigners to buy it because of currency de-valuation. To replicate the 1997 scenario, in 1997 real estate prices, the baht would have lose over 100 percent of it's current position. Do you really think that's likely? I mean, that is what you're suggesting.

Good point, given all these 'problems' why is the Thai Baht so (irritatingly) strong at the moment. The reason I ask is I have to move a lot of cash in July. (The GBPTHB has gone from 75 two years ago to around 65 today, a 20 K difference to me ) This certainly indicates a strong economy. Buildings don't get financial backing (and hence get off the ground) without buyers. With ‘all these apartments coming onto the market’ could that not mean serious capital inflow to Thailand?

Edited April 20, 2007 by pkrv