Thailand faces a reality check

[neeray]

On ‎1‎/‎17‎/‎2020 at 8:55 PM, SuwadeeS said:

Why do they count all these transit tourist, who only stop over and change a flight as their own tourists??

 

It's all about BRAG.

Misleading but excellent brag value.

[thaibeachlovers]

53 minutes ago, saengd said:

Everyone's telling me that tourist numbers are down, people running some businesses I know say that, sales people I know at one large 5 star tell me that plus one or two of the malls feel more empty than normal.....certainly, the Thaivisa Forum herd voice is saying that. Some of the sales at some stores in the mall seem deeper and longer.

 

But last night on Walking Street in Chiang Mai the place was heaving with tourists, not just a few but loads of them. I've been going to Walking Street for years and I've seen it in really busy times, last night was just as busy as ever, lots of Chinese of course but also Europeans and Americans, all nationalities as far as I could tell. 

 

It's difficult to know what the real story is here, could it be that tourists have simply changed their behavior, people now staying in apartments rather than hotels and doing different things? For sure there must be a downturn in the numbers because of the high value of the Baht and the state of the global economy but my eyes tell me there's still plenty of tourists here. The BIL runs a small tour/travel business, he tells me he's just as busy now as a year ago; my wife is a registered tour guide and she says the chatter among the official LINE group of 300 or more is negative; tried to book a flight to Bangkok last week and the ones I wanted were all fully booked.......difficult to know the extent of things and whether the noise is overdone or not. 

 

 

IMO there are so many people going to LOS that a downturn of a few million spread over a year and throughout Thailand is virtually unnoticeable, but would add up to a reduction in income.

In any event, simple numbers do not tell the real story.

In the past it was western tourists that did not follow the flag, but stayed in many small hotels, shopped in many small shops and ate in many small restaurants. The Chinese flag followers do not.

Whatever the reality, IMO Thailand is now a far worse and less inviting country for the independent tourist than it was 30 years ago, and that is down 100% to the Thais being too greedy. They milked the environment for everything they could, without protecting it, did nothing to make the experience better, and made it more difficult to visit on anything but a visa exempt entry. I have to surmise that they do not want tourists staying longer than 30 days.

Edited January 19, 2020 by thaibeachlovers

[saengd]

1 minute ago, thaibeachlovers said:

IMO there are so many people going to LOS that a downturn of a few million spread over a year and throughout Thailand is virtually unnoticeable, but would add up to a reduction in income.

In any event, simple numbers do not tell the real story.

In the past it was western tourists that did not follow the flag, but stayed in many small hotels, shopped in many small shops and ate in many small restaurants. The Chinese flag followers do not.

Makes sense......people converting to FIT status rather than mass tours; tourists staying in AirB&B's and private rentals; an oversupply of hotels; different nocturnal habits, instead of beer bars and go-go's it's a group dinner and an early night.

[spidermike007]

4 hours ago, saengd said:

Everyone's telling me that tourist numbers are down, people running some businesses I know say that, sales people I know at one large 5 star tell me that plus one or two of the malls feel more empty than normal.....certainly, the Thaivisa Forum herd voice is saying that. Some of the sales at some stores in the mall seem deeper and longer.

 

But last night on Walking Street in Chiang Mai the place was heaving with tourists, not just a few but loads of them. I've been going to Walking Street for years and I've seen it in really busy times, last night was just as busy as ever, lots of Chinese of course but also Europeans and Americans, all nationalities as far as I could tell. 

 

It's difficult to know what the real story is here, could it be that tourists have simply changed their behavior, people now staying in apartments rather than hotels and doing different things? For sure there must be a downturn in the numbers because of the high value of the Baht and the state of the global economy but my eyes tell me there's still plenty of tourists here. The BIL runs a small tour/travel business, he tells me he's just as busy now as a year ago; my wife is a registered tour guide and she says the chatter among the official LINE group of 300 or more is negative; tried to book a flight to Bangkok last week and the ones I wanted were all fully booked.......difficult to know the extent of things and whether the noise is overdone or not. 

 

 

The noise is definitely not overdone. All I speak with say business is way down. The numbers are up, and that is what you are seeing. But the quality is way, way down, in line with the ever incessant TAT push for quantity over quality. All the numbers do is lower the quality of the tourism experience for all, and the number of return trips to Thailand is dropping all the time. 

[saengd]

1 minute ago, spidermike007 said:

The noise is definitely not overdone. All I speak with say business is way down. The numbers are up, and that is what you are seeing. But the quality is way, way down, in line with the ever incessant TAT push for quantity over quality. All the numbers do is lower the quality of the tourism experience for all, and the number of return trips to Thailand is dropping all the time. 

The evidence is that the number of trips to Thailand is also increasing, so numbers up, trips up, spending down...can't speak to the quality issue.

[spidermike007]

19 minutes ago, saengd said:

The evidence is that the number of trips to Thailand is also increasing, so numbers up, trips up, spending down...can't speak to the quality issue.

I do not buy that. Not based on what I hear. Sure, there are some who will return. But not the majority. Thailand has a very bad name around the world at this stage. Just one anecdote:

 

https://www.inafarawayland.com/2014/11/13/7-reasons-why-we-won-t-be-returning-to-thailand/

 

 

[saengd]

Just now, spidermike007 said:

I do not buy that. Not based on what I hear. Sure, there are some who will return. But not the majority. Thailand has a very bad name around the world at this stage. Just one anecdote:

 

https://www.inafarawayland.com/2014/11/13/7-reasons-why-we-won-t-be-returning-to-thailand/

 

 

If the numbers of people are up, by definition the number of trips must be up also, or are we talking at cross purposes?

[spidermike007]

8 minutes ago, saengd said:

If the numbers of people are up, by definition the number of trips must be up also, or are we talking at cross purposes?

There are 1.4 billion people in China and over 1.3 billion in India. Their middle class is expanding daily. So, you could tap that pool alone, and never have a repeat tourist.

[saengd]

2 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

There are 1.4 billion people in China and over 1.3 billion in India. Their middle class is expanding daily. So, you could tap that pool alone, and never have a repeat tourist.

OK, you're talking about REPEAT visitors (trips), gottit.

[SkyFax]

21 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

CUT

 

The people wish for the army to get out! Get out now. You are not needed or wanted. You are despised. 

So is that what is called a coup d'moi ?

[tinca tinca]

On 1/18/2020 at 8:34 AM, jesimps said:

Tourism may be down but it still took me an hour to drive into Pattaya from Phoenix Golf Course last Saturday evening. The roads were chocker with tour buses, I had to fight my way through mobs of Chinese and Russians strolling around and I couldn't get a table in the Beer Garden at the end of Walking Street. If you want to eat there these days, I'd advise you to get there before 6.30pm. I also did my 90 report at Jomtien a couple of weeks back and you couldn't move in the office. Arrived at about 10am and I was there for about 45 mins, everyone in front of me seemed to have problems, what's up with them? My report took about 30 secs as usual.

go sign in at the time I do, which is about 3.45 in afternoons. I went a few days ago.....job all done in less than 3 minutes......

[tinca tinca]

no one on here knows how these figures are concocted.....!!!

[5633572526]

On 1/17/2020 at 3:03 PM, Salerno said:

In that case people like myself would never be counted i.e. those that are lucky enough to come from countries that are visa exempt, visit for more traditional "tourist" time scales and visit numerous times per year. 

Don’t think anyone would argue about including visa exempt in the tourist numbers.

[Youlike]

On 1/20/2020 at 9:18 AM, spidermike007 said:

tried to book a flight to Bangkok last week and the ones I wanted were all fully booked.......difficult to know the extent of things and whether the noise is overdone or not. 

I was at superrich moneychanger this week and there was a huge queue there of 20-25....all thai who go abroad for a holiday.

 

So it's not strange that the flights are fully booked..

[saengd]

14 minutes ago, Youlike said:

I was at superrich moneychanger this week and there was a huge queue there of 20-25....all thai who go abroad for a holiday.

 

So it's not strange that the flights are fully booked..

Approximately 10 million Thai people made overseas trips by air in 2018, the estimate for this year is nearly 12 million. https://thaiembdc.org/2019/04/15/thais-becoming-outbound-tourists-in-greater-numbers/

Edited January 22, 2020 by saengd

[Rudie k]

Would someone please give me the name of a government that tells the truth ???...Thailand is trying to attract Indian's and Chinese because it benefits the Hi-so Thai's...the Thais that own the bigger hotels and bus companies that cater to these mass junket trips...been comin here for 14yrs....it has changed....no doubt about it...used to be there was no fat girls ....not anymore...Poom Pui....the Universe is in constant change....and so it this place....sadly to say ...not for the better...Ex-patts that live here want it to be the way it was when they got here....sorry fellas...its 2020...the entire world is <deleted>....and so it this place anymore...but it sure beats the hell outta -20 degrees in Chicago