Thailand faces a reality check

By Don Ross

 

 

BANGKOK, 17 January 2020:  Thailand is scaling back its tourism forecasts to around 5% ditching earlier optimism that eight to 10% increases were still possible in a country that is now one of the top destinations worldwide based on sheer arrival volume.

 

According to a Reuters report, Thursday, the Tourism Council of Thailand president Chairat Triratanajaraspon conceded the days of the 10% annual increases could be over partly due to a strong baht that is making the destination more expensive when compared with its neighbours.

 

The baht has strengthened from THB31.64 to the USD in January 2019 to THB30.27 in January 2020. Last year, the TCT president noted the country notched up 39.7 million visits a headcount that reflects all foreign arrivals including those on annual work or retirement visas as well as overland trips from Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar and Malaysia. At the start of 2019, the country’s Ministry of Tourism and Sports set a target of 40 million.

 

But simple arithmetic rules suggest that expecting 10% annual growth rates even when annual volumes reach 40 million could be overly ambitious.  Growth rates are bound to fall as the volumes hit mega levels.

 

Full story: https://www.ttrweekly.com/site/2020/01/thailand-faces-a-reality-check/

 

-- © Copyright TTR Weekly 2020-01-17

Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking Thailand news and visa info

8 minutes ago, webfact said:

Last year, the TCT president noted the country notched up 39.7 million visits a headcount that reflects all foreign arrivals including those on annual work or retirement visas as well as overland trips from Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar and Malaysia.

And there we have it. I "arrived" in Thailand 6 times last year. I would imagine there are many more that do the same. The "tourist" numbers that they constantly spout are nonsense. Why don't they just count those entering on tourist visas as tourists? Surely that would give them a more accurate number?

And how many of those people are counted multiple times because they travel for work?

Arrivals also include people who change planes on the way to Vietnam.

17 minutes ago, Phuketshrew said:

Why don't they just count those entering on tourist visas as tourists? Surely that would give them a more accurate number?

In that case people like myself would never be counted i.e. those that are lucky enough to come from countries that are visa exempt, visit for more traditional "tourist" time scales and visit numerous times per year. 

39 minutes ago, Phuketshrew said:

Why don't they just count those entering on tourist visas as tourists? Surely that would give them a more accurate number?

And see a drop in the numbers? No chance!

1 hour ago, webfact said:

Thailand faces a reality check

Reality has NEVER been one of their strong points! They are far removed.

14 hours ago, Phuketshrew said:

And there we have it. I "arrived" in Thailand 6 times last year. I would imagine there are many more that do the same. The "tourist" numbers that they constantly spout are nonsense. Why don't they just count those entering on tourist visas as tourists? Surely that would give them a more accurate number?

Agree the figures are nonsense, but not with your suggestion that people on tourist visas only should be counted. Most tourists would probably visit for a week or two on visa exempt entry (or visa on arrival for Indian and Chinese). 

Border-bouncers and in / out business folk are repeatedly counted. Genuine tourist numbers are likely closer to 20M, if that.

I better rely on my own system If i count 3 full song teaws in a row driving on Pattaya second road then its busy otherwise its dead.

17 hours ago, Phuketshrew said:

And there we have it. I "arrived" in Thailand 6 times last year. I would imagine there are many more that do the same. The "tourist" numbers that they constantly spout are nonsense. Why don't they just count those entering on tourist visas as tourists? Surely that would give them a more accurate number?

No it won't. Many countries have a 30 day visa exempt agreement. I live in Australia and have been to Thailand nearly 40 times, never with a visa as we only stay for 3 or 4 weeks.

Tourism may be down but it still took me an hour to drive into Pattaya from Phoenix Golf Course last Saturday evening. The roads were chocker with tour buses, I had to fight my way through mobs of Chinese and Russians strolling around and I couldn't get a table in the Beer Garden at the end of Walking Street. If you want to eat there these days, I'd advise you to get there before 6.30pm. I also did my 90 report at Jomtien a couple of weeks back and you couldn't move in the office. Arrived at about 10am and I was there for about 45 mins, everyone in front of me seemed to have problems, what's up with them? My report took about 30 secs as usual.

Why do they count all these transit tourist, who only stop over and change a flight as their own tourists??

 

No telling how much the air pollution is going to effect these numbers. The 2.5 PM levels were off the charts again this morning, even in Phuket and the south. It's a great day for the beach! ???? I do pity the locals who have no choice but to breath the poison. 

18 hours ago, Phuketshrew said:

And there we have it. I "arrived" in Thailand 6 times last year. I would imagine there are many more that do the same. The "tourist" numbers that they constantly spout are nonsense. Why don't they just count those entering on tourist visas as tourists? Surely that would give them a more accurate number?

Do they count the Burmese going back and forth each day on borders and  the laborers crossing????

18 hours ago, Phuketshrew said:

And there we have it. I "arrived" in Thailand 6 times last year. I would imagine there are many more that do the same. The "tourist" numbers that they constantly spout are nonsense. Why don't they just count those entering on tourist visas as tourists? Surely that would give them a more accurate number?

Well said.

 

A general trend for decades, among real tourists, is using Thailand, well, as a hub if you want to call it that. People fly in & out because of cheap airfare. However they are just as likely to enter, then fly right back out to Myanmar for three weeks. Or spend those weeks circling Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia, & fly home via Bangkok. A lot more than just the old backpackers. You have flashpackers, millennial snowflakes, kitted out with Iphone, selfie stick, and spinner luggage. The main point is a large group of tourists are not spending much time in Thailand any more. TAT loves that head count but if anything they are fooling themselves. They do that a lot of other ways too, natch ... 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 18, 20206 yr by LomSak27

18 hours ago, Phuketshrew said:

And there we have it. I "arrived" in Thailand 6 times last year. I would imagine there are many more that do the same. The "tourist" numbers that they constantly spout are nonsense. Why don't they just count those entering on tourist visas as tourists? Surely that would give them a more accurate number?

I did seven

Talked to a thai friend of mine who runs a tourist related business in Chiang Mai the other day and I asked how is business during high season? She said there isnt any high season nowadays, only a long low year round low season...

42 minutes ago, SuwadeeS said:

Why do they count all these transit tourist, who only stop over and change a flight as their own tourists??

 

I'm pretty sure they only count if they clear Thai Immigration, though of course many do have a one night stopover before departing to their next destination.

 

Saying that, I've never transitted in Thailand to another country. Do you have to fill in a TM6 form if you are just staying in the airport?

19 hours ago, Phuketshrew said:

And there we have it. I "arrived" in Thailand 6 times last year. I would imagine there are many more that do the same. The "tourist" numbers that they constantly spout are nonsense. Why don't they just count those entering on tourist visas as tourists? Surely that would give them a more accurate number?

Change accurate to embarrassing and I'll give you a 'like'.

People in transit do not get counted for TAT figures, neither do land crossings, I posted the AOT airplane traffic stats. from 2018 which seem to corroborate TAT numbers.

 

https://www.airportthai.co.th/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Annual-Airport-2018.pdf

Edited January 18, 20206 yr by saengd

Why let reality get in the way of a good story.  By the way don't forget to include the tourists filling in TM30 forms when travelling inside Thailand. Travelling to Pattaya and Chiang Mai counts as 2 tourists. You have your Pattaya "sexpat" tourist and your "tree hugging" Chiang Mai tourist. Completely different tourists. 

13 minutes ago, madmitch said:

I'm pretty sure they only count if they clear Thai Immigration, though of course many do have a one night stopover before departing to their next destination.

 

Saying that, I've never transitted in Thailand to another country. Do you have to fill in a TM6 form if you are just staying in the airport?

See post 23

With my multiple entry visa, I have no doubt they counted my 3 entries last year as incoming tourist data.

And with Thailand’s overpriced Baht (did anyone see yesterday’s inversion—Chinese Yuan up again with USD and paired currencies down by an equal amount and trading pattern)—Thailand has lost its luster.

 

1 minute ago, Isaan sailor said:

With my multiple entry visa, I have no doubt they counted my 3 entries last year as incoming tourist data.

And with Thailand’s overpriced Baht (did anyone see yesterday’s inversion—Chinese Yuan up again with USD and paired currencies down by an equal amount and trading pattern)—Thailand has lost its luster.

 

If you make three trips into Thailand from another country, sure you will get counted as three people in the course of the year. Please do us a favor don't move about so much, you're screwing up the stats. ????

Pattaya "tourist" area is only so big.  The idea that the TAT wants to increase the number of vacationers every year just makes for too many people occupying the same limited space.  Best to develop and promote alternate areas if you want continued growth in tourism is my opinion.  The number of tourists has already more than doubled in the last 10 years.  Why is that not enough?  What is a sustainable number? 

1 hour ago, SuwadeeS said:

Why do they count all these transit tourist, who only stop over and change a flight as their own tourists??

 

Is maybe because  even transit passengers still attract airport departure fees? It would be interesting to know.

"But simple arithmetic rules suggest that expecting 10% annual growth rates even when annual volumes reach 40 million could be overly ambitious.  Growth rates are bound to fall as the volumes hit mega levels".

 

This is not dissimilar to Thai GDP, when it reaches a certain level the growth rate has to slow, it can't keep on growing exponentially every year, it is after all the second largest in SE Asia. So people claiming that Vietnam's GDP growth outstrips Thailand by almost double need to remember that Vietnam's GDP is half of Thailand's.

1 hour ago, SuwadeeS said:

Why do they count all these transit tourist, who only stop over and change a flight as their own tourists??

 

They don't, why do you think they do?

If you don't have a Non-Immigrant visa when entering, then you counted as a tourist. AFAIK