If all expats left: Little impact on Thai economy

[TPI]

21 hours ago, DannyCarlton said:

Even given the dubious facts you have quoted, they don't support the conclusion you have drawn.

The op hasn't considered the impact on local communities, 200,000 people spending 600 baht a day = 120m baht a day! x 4 (the common multiplier for benefits to the community) becomes 480M Baht a day!!! This money would be totally lost to the economy! 

It would have the same effect on Thailand as loosing Ranong province or Nan! Do you think that Thailand wouldn't notice the loss of THB 175,200,000,000 a year from it's economy?

[saengd]

4 minutes ago, rocketdave said:

I tend to use taxis to get about here (Pattaya) and use the one same firm for years.

Yesterday coming back to my condo O joked with the driver about all his millionaire Chinese and Indian customers. His reply about both groups was less than polite, in fact he said if it wasn't for the expats he'd have no work, no income to pay for his car and licences etc. So all you miserable (add own title) out there stop knocking your own group of people, it shows a mental health problem at very least.

Nobody is knocking the Western expat but people need to be realistic about what their contribution is to the Thai economy. The average Westerner already has an unrealistically  higher opinion of his/her spending impact on the economy and that's true of those who have been here for many years, that's the purpose of this thread. I've no doubt that western expats who have been in country a relatively short time believe they are gods own gift to the central bank.....it's high time to correct that misconception.

[Assurancetourix]

19 hours ago, saengd said:

Interesting how many posters didn't read or comprehend the context, even after it was pointed out to them:

 

The subject is Western expats.....not all expats.

The context is economic impact.....not social impact.

 

Who knows what some posters might think the thread is about at this rate, the level of taxation in Laos perhaps! The OP is correct it's outrageously high. ????

You are wrong ;

come on the first page : If all expats left .....

 

" If all expats left: Little impact on Thai economy

By Roy Baht, 21 hours ago in Jobs, economy, banking, business, investments "

[saengd]

2 minutes ago, TPI said:

The op hasn't considered the impact on local communities, 200,000 people spending 600 baht a day = 120m baht a day! x 4 (the common multiplier for benefits to the community) becomes 480M Baht a day!!! This money would be totally lost to the economy! 

It would have the same effect on Thailand as loosing Ranong province or Nan! Do you think that Thailand wouldn't notice the loss of THB 175,200,000,000 a year from it's economy?

AGAIN, the article in the OP assumes that 3 million baht per western retiree/expat is recycled through the economy every year, until they leave when the impact is measured.....has nobody read the OP!

[saengd]

1 minute ago, Assurancetourix said:

You are wrong ;

come on the first page : If all expats left .....

 

" If all expats left: Little impact on Thai economy

By Roy Baht, 21 hours ago in Jobs, economy, banking, business, investments "

The subject was qualified at the outset, Western expats and retirees, how difficult is that to understand!

[Burma Bill]

Yes I agree if all the ex-pats were suddenly to leave the LOS, this would not have any significant effect on Thailand's overall economy. However it would on LOCAL economies, especially in rural areas throughout the country, where many family "cash only" businesses in towns and villages are supported by ex-pats and their Thai families (who rely on cash from their ex-pat). Remember, out here in "the sticks" it is cash - not plastic cards or mobile phone apps! In my local Issan town, there are two Thai owned bar/restaurant businesses that would collapse overnight if all the local ex-pats were to suddenly up root and leave.

[hansnl]

21 hours ago, saengd said:

In that example Fon would just go to Pattaya and get 1,000 baht each from ten tourists, job done.

But where have all the tourists gone?

[Assurancetourix]

17 hours ago, CGW said:

20 hours ago, Yinn said:

thailand not have enough worker for the job. We must get worker from Burma, Cambodia and Laos. 3 million now. 

This is completely false;
these 3 million foreigners who work in Thailand do it because no Thai would like to make the trades which they make especially when one knows the miserable wages which their employers give them.
They are very far from touching 300 baht per day;
for many of them, it is a passport suppressed, and a food that looks very much like what Thai prisoners eat.
It's a shame but Thailand is not ashamed of anything ...

[Teddy3943]

Your calculation is one sided. It is not only the money in the bank, but the continuous inflow of foreign currencies and the continuous spending of the whole income of the expats. Only a limited kind of businesses benefit of the continuous expat spendings. For these businesses it would be a significant loss. But the whole nation would not collaps, that's true.

I experienced well that Thailand doesn't need me or my income... that's why I left already 6 years ago and I am still happy about that decision.

[saengd]

2 minutes ago, Teddy3943 said:

Your calculation is one sided. It is not only the money in the bank, but the continuous inflow of foreign currencies and the continuous spending of the whole income of the expats. Only a limited kind of businesses benefit of the continuous expat spendings. For these businesses it would be a significant loss. But the whole nation would not collaps, that's true.

I experienced well that Thailand doesn't need me or my income... that's why I left already 6 years ago and I am still happy about that decision.

See post 160

[Skeptic7]

22 hours ago, saengd said:

In that example Fon would just go to Pattaya and get 1,000 baht each from ten tourists, job done.

Hasn't been a ฿1000 girl worth half-a-glance in Patts for better part of a decade. ????

[Yinn]

28 minutes ago, TPI said:

The op hasn't considered the impact on local communities, 200,000 people spending 600 baht a day = 120m baht a day! x 4 (the common multiplier for benefits to the community) becomes 480M Baht a day!!! This money would be totally lost to the economy! 

It would have the same effect on Thailand as loosing Ranong province or Nan! Do you think that Thailand wouldn't notice the loss of THB 175,200,000,000 a year from it's economy?

Ranong. Nooooooo.

 

Ranong is the most beautiful province in Thailand. And people most lovely. Very clever. And so wonderful.

 

But....

we only 192,000 people in province. Pattaya city have more.

 

Thailand can live without Ranong. 

[hansnl]

22 hours ago, cmarshall said:

I'll bet it's a lot closer to 50k foreigners.  The 38 million tourist visits as a whole contribute between 6% and 10% of GDP.  No way the expats amount to half that.

The number of foreign expats living in Thailand is somewhere between 400,000 and 500,000.

On average each foreign expat brings 50,000 Baht per month into the country.

If 400,000 do this, that would mean a total of 240,000,000,000 Baht.

Plus 2.7 jobs per farang, plus investment in houses, cars, motorbikes etc.

All this spent in the local economy and slowly reaching big companies, also employing people.

Rather more as the OP states.

[Yinn]

22 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said:

This is completely false;
these 3 million foreigners who work in Thailand do it because no Thai would like to make the trades

Wrong again. 

Burmese are builder. Thai are builder. Work on same project. 

Burmese work in restaurant, same restaurant have Thai worker.

etc

etc

etc

 

 

22 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said:

 

 

which they make especially when one knows the miserable wages which their employers give them.

Yes. Burmese wages lower.

But is higher more than Burma. 

If not, why they work in Thailand?? For less money? Pfffft. Think please

 

 

22 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said:

 

They are very far from touching 300 baht per day;
for many of them, it is a passport suppressed, and a food that looks very much like what Thai prisoners eat.

You imagine everything.

They go the market, make food themself. 

Husband and wife team, family, kid go to school.

Happy, smile, friendly because Thailand give them better life. We not kidnap them. 

 

 

22 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said:

 

It's a shame but Thailand is not ashamed of anything ...

Thailand ashamed of you. 

Why you live in Sakon Nakhon?

[Caine]

22 hours ago, saengd said:

In that example Fon would just go to Pattaya and get 1,000 baht each from ten tourists, job done.

There ain't 10 tourist in Pattaya at the moment. ????????????

[saengd]

42 minutes ago, hansnl said:

The number of foreign expats living in Thailand is somewhere between 400,000 and 500,000.

On average each foreign expat brings 50,000 Baht per month into the country.

If 400,000 do this, that would mean a total of 240,000,000,000 Baht.

Plus 2.7 jobs per farang, plus investment in houses, cars, motorbikes etc.

All this spent in the local economy and slowly reaching big companies, also employing people.

Rather more as the OP states.

So 240 billion baht is rather more than USD 16 to 36 billion, really, I never imagined that!!! ????

 

BTW the OP restricted himself to Western expats, as per the link provided, not expats overall.

[Expat Tom]

You do not factor in the number of secondary jobs created by the primary influx of expat money nor do you address the long term affects. Dubious at best...

[saengd]

There's an old First World War joke about the general who asks for his message to be sent down the line, he says, "send reinforcements we're going to advance". The message gets passed from soldier to soldier and because only a few people heard what the general actually said, the message arrives as, "send three and four-pence we're going to a dance".

 

This threads a lot like that message.

 

[emptypockets]

21 hours ago, cmarshall said:

I think the net effect of the loss of all the expats on Thai GDP would be zilch.  However, there could be local effects.  The value of real estate at the upper end in Bangkok might suffer because prices in the real estate market, like those in the stock market are set at the margins.  So if the number of transactions were to drop because of the absence of foreigners, the prevailing prices would also drop even if the foreigners were not that numerous.

And fan rooms in Pattaya would plummet from 3000 baht a month to 2500.

I don't think too many traditional farangs (i.e. retirees) are living in upmarket houses/condos in Bangkok.

[brianthainess]

22 hours ago, Yinn said:

thailand not have enough worker for the job. We must get worker from Burma, Cambodia and Laos. 3 million now. 

If 150,000 expat go, maybe = 150,000 less foreign worker. 

Never do i see Thais doing hard manual labour in the full sun 6 days a week, 8+ hrs a day all year, that is why you have so many immigrant workers wake up Yinn. look at the pollution, rather burn off sugar cane, than employ people to clean it or god forbid do it themselves.

[Matzzon]

2 hours ago, Yinn said:

 

Pfffft

 

 

You lost. Not me.

 

Boring to help you understand everything because

1) you so wrong

2) you not listen

3) you like to argue.

 

2 hours ago, Yinn said:

No, Traubert agree with me.

nobody agree with you.

Think.

Nah, I think you are a little bit wrong there. Better check your facts before you make a post. To me it looks like most people agree with my initial post that you quoted against. I will bring you the facts below, so that you can keep track on reality. There you can surely see who lost this discussion. ????????

 

Have a nice day!

[NoshowJones]

On 1/23/2020 at 11:37 AM, DannyCarlton said:

Even given the dubious facts you have quoted, they don't support the conclusion you have drawn.

Let me put something here, what percentage of retirees do not use the 800.000Bt  money in the bank method and use agents instead? I would guess, and it is only a guess, and say about 25%.

 

[DannyCarlton]

1 minute ago, possum1931 said:

Let me put something here, what percentage of retirees do not use the 800.000Bt  money in the bank method and use agents instead? I would guess, and it is only a guess, and say about 25%.

 

I would say considerably less than that. Pattaya maybe but not those living in the boonies. I get the impression that Jomtien IO wished everyone used agents. A nice little earner for them.

[NoshowJones]

On 1/23/2020 at 12:03 PM, Beggar said:

You are right. We expats are a burden for this country. Compared to tourists we don't spend a lot, block valuable rooms that could be occupied by such tourists and are a special burden for the immigration. I hope nobody of the government reads your post and thinks too much about it ????

"compared to tourists we don't spend a lot", I am not sure I would agree with that, how much do the Indians and Chinese spend compared to us retirees?

[Jumbo1968]

Be less queues at Immigration and some redundant Immigration Officers if there were no Expats.

[animatic]

If all expats working in bringing business, foreign investment, purchasing, and general business deals of all

sorts into Thai business for Thailand, all suddenly said.
‘Off to Vietnam’, and/or Malaysia, 

it would be a far bigger hit than the 3-5% of their living expenses being withdrawn. 

It is not just retirees, pensioners, misfits and criminal who are expat in Thailand.

Edited January 24, 2020 by animatic

[ThomasThBKK]

1 minute ago, animatic said:

If all expats working in bringing business, foreign investment and purchasing, and business deals of all

sorts into Thai business for Thailand, all suddenly said.
‘Off to Vietnam’, and/or Malaysia, 

it would be a far bigger hit than the 3-5% of their living expenses being withdrawn. 

 

yes of course because the Foreign direct investment into Thailand from the US and Europe is FAR MORE THAN 5%.

Japan, Europe and USA have more than 50% of all investments coming into Thailand, all of these parties are allies and aligned. 

 

There are tons of US and EU multinationals here like GE, kick them out and see what trump does to lil thailand....

 

 

Unlike china which invests less than mauritius here lol.

 

 

[Traubert]

16 hours ago, Traubert said:

You must be totally diluted!

Your words.

15 hours ago, Matzzon said:

Weakened in water????? Can you please give me some of that you are on.

 

If it doesn´t matter, why do you even consider post about it?

 

'Cos I can.

 

Now, going back to Yinn's questions. Are you going to answer them or simply pour scorn on her second language skills like some playground bully?

[ThomasThBKK]

3 hours ago, Yinn said:

Wrong again. 

Burmese are builder. Thai are builder. Work on same project. 

Burmese work in restaurant, same restaurant have Thai worker.

etc

etc

etc

 

 

Yes. Burmese wages lower.

But is higher more than Burma. 

If not, why they work in Thailand?? For less money? Pfffft. Think please

 

 

You imagine everything.

They go the market, make food themself. 

Husband and wife team, family, kid go to school.

Happy, smile, friendly because Thailand give them better life. We not kidnap them. 

 

 

Thailand ashamed of you. 

Why you live in Sakon Nakhon?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/21/such-brutality-tricked-into-slavery-in-the-thai-fishing-industry

 

 

yeah sure... this is reality. 

 

Quote

He would not see his wife again for five years. After a middleman on the Thai-Cambodian border promised he could earn a lot of money drying fish, Prum was sold into slave labour, sent to sea on a fishing trawler. He was forced to work around the clock and through storms, allowed a maximum two hours’ sleep by day and two hours at night.

Quote

“There are many slaves who die in the ocean, and their children don’t know where they have gone,” says Prum. “If we don’t share these stories, the world doesn’t know what’s going on in the middle of the ocean.”

 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/series/modern-day-slavery-in-focus+world/thailand

Edited January 24, 2020 by ThomasThBKK

[Grumpy John]

Can't get to excited about responding to this hypothetical and to tired to summon up some witty sarcasm.   Time for my siesta.