Corona Virus in Chiang Mai

[samuttodd]

6 minutes ago, saengd said:

Even though all of this is taking place in China there are still many avenues for information to flow out of the country, accurate information. If in fact the number of deaths was almost 25, 000 I'm pretty sure the rest of the world would have got sight of that either through foreign embassies in the country, business people or locals who have traveled or spoken with others overseas. The West has come to accept a certain level of inaccuracy regarding Chinese statistics but not to the level you have stated which I personally think is rumor mongering and irresponsible, given the circumstances today.

 I don't care what you think.  Your opinion is of no importance to me personally.

  I didn't write this,   the Taiwan News wrote this.  They have been 70 years in the news reporting business.   

Edited February 5, 2020 by samuttodd

[saengd]

1 minute ago, samuttodd said:

You can think what you want to think.    I didn't write this,   the Taiwan News wrote this.  They are 70 years in the news reporting business.   

The Taiwan News, so no axe to grind there then!

 

It might be helpful if you were to provide a link to confirm that story otherwise many will see it as rumor mongering.

[samuttodd]

I guess I could,  but since it was in the initial posting,   why don't you go back and click on it?

 

 

You have been placed on my ignore list.  Goodbye  Please place me on yours.

 

Edited February 5, 2020 by samuttodd

[saengd]

10 minutes ago, samuttodd said:

I guess I could,  but since it was in the initial posting,   why don't you go back and click on it?

 

 

You have been placed on my ignore list.  Goodbye  Please place me on yours.

 

What is in the OP is an article from City life Chiang Mai, I was looking for you to post a link in support of your statistics which you claim come from the Taiwan Press, it seems they may not. 

[WaveHunter]

3 hours ago, EricTh said:

If there is only one person who got infected in CM so far out of 25, wouldn't it be paranoid just to have a special thread?

 

Anyway, which hospital in CM is the best to deal with this virus just in case....

 

It would probably be Nakornping Hospital. It was set up as a ‘designated receiving area’ for people with infectious diseases, the first in northern Thailand.  It was also selected as the only hospital in Chiang Mai to care for Ebola patients should that need have ever been a concern back when that virus was front page news.

Edited February 5, 2020 by WaveHunter

[orang37]

New evidence that suggests current Corona virus is not transmissible during incubation period for asymptomatic patients, and that previously analyzed infected patient had symptoms:

 

clickee: Wuhan CV not transmibble during asymptomatic incubation period ?

 

I continue to believe we are a long way from any meaningful overall assessment of what the virus is now, or, may become.

 

imho, every possible permutation of virulence, mortality, symptom severity, rate of recovery, exposure, immune system impairment, symptomatic/asymptomatic, differential genetic vulnerability, mutation frequency, etc., defines a cohort that may be critical to what happens.

 

We may never know to what extent are there people who have been exposed, but did not become infected; or, how many people were exposed, became infected but did not seek medical treatment for the common initial symptoms, and recovered without medical treatment.

 

All of these possible factors are modulated by whether people with the very common initial symptoms seek medical help, and, whether their doctors/hospitals then diagnose based on these symptoms. It's not like smallpox, or bubonic plague, where there were dramatic identifying symptoms

 

And, of course, modulated by the news media, by political forces manipulating the news and/or incidence reporting to international scientific organizations.. Not to mention the inevitable tsunami spew of conspiracy theorists wh will daisy chain this virus onto their paranoid rantings.

 

What a beautiful world !

 

~o:37;

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 5, 2020 by orang37
memory recovered after alien abduction

[WaveHunter]

3 hours ago, saengd said:

Even though all of this is taking place in China there are still many avenues for information to flow out of the country, accurate information. If in fact the number of deaths was almost 25, 000 I'm pretty sure the rest of the world would have got sight of that either through foreign embassies in the country, business people or locals who have traveled or spoken with others overseas. The West has come to accept a certain level of inaccuracy regarding Chinese statistics but not to the level you have stated which I personally think is rumor mongering and irresponsible, given the circumstances today.

With all due respect, I wouldn't agree with that line of reasoning at all.  Very little unsanctioned and viable information is coming out of China about this outbreak from people that are actually on the front-lines except through the brave efforts of some scientists, doctors, nurses, and journalists through social media, who risk government censor and even arrest under the "Rumors Law" which can land them in jail for 7 years!

 

The "official" statistics being delivered through state-sponsored media have been and continue to be quite different than some of these people are relating.

 

I know this is true because I have friends in Shenzhen, many of whom are medical professionals working there in area hospital and they are not only scared but angered by how the government is handling this crisis.  According to them, the death toll is significantly higher than being reported, and the number of actual cases that can not be confirmed becuase they don't have an adequate supply of test kits is staggering!

 

According to very sound epidemiological computer modeling, as reported in Lancet, there is likely around 75,000 infected though unconfirmed cases of n-CoV in Wuhan alone.  That is really staggering when you think about it.

 

As for how cause-of-death is determined in China, a doctor I know in Shenzhen explained it this way: 

 

It is standard procedure for some admitted patients with a pre-existing condition, say flu symptoms or even early stage pneumonia, who then go on and develop more serious conditions that land them in ICU such as ARDS and then die, to have their death certificate list the pre-existing condition as cause of death, even though it was n-CoV virus that ended up killing them.  So, many nCoV deaths are not listed as such on death certificates.

 

You don't have to believe what I am saying; just look at the official statistics in China for death from Influenza.  It is something incredibly low like 100-200 deaths per year LOL!  DO you really believe that death figure?  In the United States, between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths from Influenza occur annually!

 

There are also credible reports that crematoriums in Wuhan are now running 24/7, and running far beyond capacity.  If true, it is almost certain the numbers are incredibly higher than reported.

 

 

No, I don't believe the true statistics for death from n-CoV are being released by the Chinese government at all, and it is intentional so as to avoid public panic, and even more importantly, to save face in the international community, a motive that should never be under-estimated by the Chinese Central government, even when the safety and well being of its' citizens are at jeopardy.  

 

I have no idea what the actual number is, but I am almost certain it is very many more than reports indicate...VERY MANY MORE!

Edited February 5, 2020 by WaveHunter

[WaveHunter]

Just to add to my previous posts, There are also credible reports that The Hankou funeral crematorium in Wuhan is operating 24 hours a day and doing so at far beyond its' capacity even though it has 30 cremation furnaces.  I'm not saying I know this to be an actual fact but I am hearing this from multiple independent and credible sources.  If it turns out to be true, actual numbers of deaths could exceed official figures by 10 times with no less than 200 deaths per day in Wuhan.  As ghoulish as it sounds, it' something to really wonder about.

Edited February 5, 2020 by WaveHunter

[hmficc]

6 hours ago, samuttodd said:

One concern is that at least in the US,  Hospitals are already operating at capacity in many places in the areas where these very sick will need to be treated.

 

The emergency medical response will be unable to deal with the deluge of very sick people,  which is going to mean that many folks will not be able to get well.    They simply don't have the staff or the space to serve everyone.

 

 

I would propose that a very large cruise ships or naval vessels be set up to do emergency and quarrantine off shore near large costal metro areas (LA, San Fransisco, Seattle, nyc, miami...)   They could essentially be MASH units to handle the excess patients.    The military and reserves could be used to help.   

 

 

I would suggest the the difficulty the USA would have would be in providing intensive care ( respirators) to a very large increase in pt.

Rooms with beds could be managed.

[onebir]

On 2/3/2020 at 6:22 PM, khunpa said:

http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/corona/#relative-import-risk

 

I'd like to caution against taking these results at face value. The problem is that the estimates for 'relative import risk' (RIR) within China only use air passenger figures. But passenger traffic on China's rail network is around 5 times air passenger traffic (3x for high speed rail services only).

 

So the RIR estimates for some cities within China are strongly biased up or down depending on how well served they are by rail relative to air. To quantify this I plotted province-level 2019-ncov cases (y) vs RIR (aggregated 40 airports in each province). (See attachment).

 

The n cases/RIR estimated relationship within China is very poor. And it's Chinese airport level RIR estimates that form the basis of the country level RIR estimates.

 

How much does this matter? I'm not sure. Hubei had the bulk of the initial cases, and I think the element of a countries' RIR based directly on air passenger traffic from Wuhan is unaffected. However, the element of country RIRs based on transit via another Chinese airport could be affected quite a bit. For example, I noticed the problem with these estimates because Kunming, which has the highest RIR estimate, ranks 18th by (official) cases. Taking cases, rather than RIR estimates as a measure of infectivity likely to be transmitted from Kunming, the element of country RIR's would be reduced by a factor of perhaps 6 (the n cases/ RIR correlation is very poor, so that's a rough guess).

 

So if 0.6pp (say) of Thailand's RIR reflect flights from Kunming a more realistic figure might be 0.1pp, and Thailand's RIR would be around 1.4%, rather than 1.9%.

 

It's a bit involved, but I hope that makes sense. I've raised the issue with the author of the paper; he's aware of the problem, but perhaps not of its scale (&/ that unfortunates in fora like this may be taking the paper's estimates a bit too literally...)

 

If someone has a handle on the proportion of China-Thailand flights/passengers coming from the various cities in China, it might be possible to get a better idea of whether the rather high estimated RIR for Thailand makes sense. (Or made sense when the flights were running...)

 

 

 

Selection_002.bmp

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

How about this out of China? Could this be propaganda with the sappy music and bad acting?  

 

Edited February 5, 2020 by CobraSnakeNecktie

[saengd]

5 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

With all due respect, I wouldn't agree with that line of reasoning at all.  Very little unsanctioned and viable information is coming out of China about this outbreak from people that are actually on the front-lines except through the brave efforts of some scientists, doctors, nurses, and journalists through social media, who risk government censor and even arrest under the "Rumors Law" which can land them in jail for 7 years!

 

The "official" statistics being delivered through state-sponsored media have been and continue to be quite different than some of these people are relating.

 

I know this is true because I have friends in Shenzhen, many of whom are medical professionals working there in area hospital and they are not only scared but angered by how the government is handling this crisis.  According to them, the death toll is significantly higher than being reported, and the number of actual cases that can not be confirmed becuase they don't have an adequate supply of test kits is staggering!

 

According to very sound epidemiological computer modeling, as reported in Lancet, there is likely around 75,000 infected though unconfirmed cases of n-CoV in Wuhan alone.  That is really staggering when you think about it.

 

As for how cause-of-death is determined in China, a doctor I know in Shenzhen explained it this way: 

 

It is standard procedure for some admitted patients with a pre-existing condition, say flu symptoms or even early stage pneumonia, who then go on and develop more serious conditions that land them in ICU such as ARDS and then die, to have their death certificate list the pre-existing condition as cause of death, even though it was n-CoV virus that ended up killing them.  So, many nCoV deaths are not listed as such on death certificates.

 

You don't have to believe what I am saying; just look at the official statistics in China for death from Influenza.  It is something incredibly low like 100-200 deaths per year LOL!  DO you really believe that death figure?  In the United States, between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths from Influenza occur annually!

 

There are also credible reports that crematoriums in Wuhan are now running 24/7, and running far beyond capacity.  If true, it is almost certain the numbers are incredibly higher than reported.

 

 

No, I don't believe the true statistics for death from n-CoV are being released by the Chinese government at all, and it is intentional so as to avoid public panic, and even more importantly, to save face in the international community, a motive that should never be under-estimated by the Chinese Central government, even when the safety and well being of its' citizens are at jeopardy.  

 

I have no idea what the actual number is, but I am almost certain it is very many more than reports indicate...VERY MANY MORE!

Two things:

 

Firstly, I did look for the official statistics for the number of flu deaths per year in China during a normal year but I quickly realized I didn't need to keep looking because there's s much data out there on the subject. Here's one of many reports that exist from credible sources in China that confirm the number of flu deaths is pretty much the same as the US. Your point therefore that China understates the numbers is therefore not supported.

 

https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/90/4/11-096958/en/

 

Secondly, you talk about the lack of information coming from the the front line to support the very high number of deaths that you claim and you attribute this to Chinese censorship and draconian laws. I submit that if the death rate was as you claim, in the high five figures, the entire city/country would be the front line and that in this age of internet and electronic communications leaks would be bound to occur at some point and they haven't. 

 

I also am quite closely connected to China in several ways, I have lived there for several years, have several Chinese friends and currently live among a Chinese community. My neighbor is Chinese and we talk frequently, he's GM of a government project in Nigeria building an airport, an intelligent educated man who has traveled. He tells me he heard about the Wuhan flu long before the international media made it popular, he has family living not far from Wuhan. He confirms that seasonal flu is a feature of China as much as it is in any other country, he claims the situation in Wuhan is not good but nowhere as dire as you suggest, he doesn't believe even government could contain a lie of that dimension because it would inevitably be found out.

 

Finally, on the subject of mortality rates: I was somewhat bemused by the earlier posters belief that the mortality rate is in the high double digits so I did some research on that point also, everything I see from the WHO downwards talks of mortality rates being circa 3%, NOBODY is talking about even low double digits hence I dismiss that posters theories as nonsense also.

 

 

[XGM]

There are currently 248 confirmed cases outside China, with 2 deaths.

Do those figures support the theory of a huge coverup of mortality rate being done in China? I think not. We'd expect more deaths in other countries had that been the case.

 

My impression is that the 3% mortality rate is the situation when hospitals are flooded with patients, resulting in many receiving subpar treatment (obviously the situation in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei province). Otherwise, lower.

Edited February 6, 2020 by XGM

[englishoak]

15 minutes ago, XGM said:

There are currently 248 confirmed cases outside China, with 2 deaths.

Do those figures support the theory of a huge coverup of mortality rate being done in China? I think not. We'd expect more deaths in other countries had that been the case.

 

My impression is that the 3% mortality rate is the situation when hospitals are flooded with patients, resulting in many receiving subpar treatment (obviously the situation in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei province). Otherwise, lower.

 

It dosnt work like that,  you could have 100 mild cases with zero deaths or 100 cases with 25 deaths. It takes time to work out the R0 and yes when a system has a small number of cases and catch it early enough the risks will drop. 

 

Just by the clips and stories coming out of China its likely the official numbers are under reported below is one outlet that has tried to and had its wings clipped the next update.  If the first is accurate the death rate is 15.9% based on the red  infected to grey deaths.  interestingly the green are the recovered numbers and not so dissimilar 

 

[WaveHunter]

7 hours ago, saengd said:

Two things:

 

Firstly, I did look for the official statistics for the number of flu deaths per year in China during a normal year but I quickly realized I didn't need to keep looking because there's s much data out there on the subject. Here's one of many reports that exist from credible sources in China that confirm the number of flu deaths is pretty much the same as the US. Your point therefore that China understates the numbers is therefore not supported.

 

https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/90/4/11-096958/en/

 

Secondly, you talk about the lack of information coming from the the front line to support the very high number of deaths that you claim and you attribute this to Chinese censorship and draconian laws. I submit that if the death rate was as you claim, in the high five figures, the entire city/country would be the front line and that in this age of internet and electronic communications leaks would be bound to occur at some point and they haven't. 

 

I also am quite closely connected to China in several ways, I have lived there for several years, have several Chinese friends and currently live among a Chinese community. My neighbor is Chinese and we talk frequently, he's GM of a government project in Nigeria building an airport, an intelligent educated man who has traveled. He tells me he heard about the Wuhan flu long before the international media made it popular, he has family living not far from Wuhan. He confirms that seasonal flu is a feature of China as much as it is in any other country, he claims the situation in Wuhan is not good but nowhere as dire as you suggest, he doesn't believe even government could contain a lie of that dimension because it would inevitably be found out.

 

Finally, on the subject of mortality rates: I was somewhat bemused by the earlier posters belief that the mortality rate is in the high double digits so I did some research on that point also, everything I see from the WHO downwards talks of mortality rates being circa 3%, NOBODY is talking about even low double digits hence I dismiss that posters theories as nonsense also.

 

 

Of course you can believe whatever you want and I respect your right to do so BUT there is incredibly strong evidence to support the belief that China is grossly under-reporting deaths in Wuhan (and even more importantly, in other cities and all provinces within China for the reasons I outlined before. 

 

As for rough mortality rate, while any discussion of mortality rate is invalid at this stage of the outbreak, it does serve as one useful benchmark to support my assertion that actual deaths are not being reported at all or being grossly under-reported by the Chinese government.

 

Consider this:  If the current benchmark for Wuhan City is 3% based on dividing the number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases (even though this is an invalid basis for computing mortality rate), the same benchmark "death rate" should be appearing for the other provinces BUT THAT IS NOT THE CASE...not even close!

 

See for yourself:

 

Even in the case of Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces which all are approaching 1,000 confirmed cases, there are zero deaths being reported! 

 

If 3% is the benchmark, then one would expect the number of deaths being reported in Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces to be around 28, yet they are both reported as ZERO !

 

Even given the lag time between the Wuhan outbreak and the outbreaks in the rest of China, there should still be a significant number of deaths in Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces but the number is ZERO!

 

How do you explain that? 

 

I can't explain it any other way except that data is being suppressed!  I have a friend living in Guangzhou that has personally seen body bags being unloaded from a van at a crematorium (expired nCoV patients must be cremated) so I know FOR A FACT that zero deaths in Guangdong province is an outright lie!

 

I'm not going to waste my time or yours by getting into a debate about this.  My posts are merely intended to get others to really think objectively about what's going on right now in China and decide for themselves, not simply accept all the garbage that is coming out of China through the filter of the Central government.

Edited February 6, 2020 by WaveHunter

[samuttodd]

I don't think that any of us here are trusting the numbers out of China,  in fact,  I'd go as far as to say,  I don't think that China truely knows the score.   

 

The racehorse that is the virus,  has gone over the railing and is running on the loose.   The Chinese establishment is fighting an out of control viral sickness,  and trying to deal with over a billion subjects that are in a downright panic.   All the while,  they are trying to maintain that no informaton of the true situation leaks outside of its own borders.

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by samuttodd

[ThaiBunny]

3 minutes ago, samuttodd said:

The racehorse that is the virus,  has gone over the railing and is running on the loose.

And now the stable door is closed?

[samuttodd]

The horse panicked and destroyed it's stable... spooked by the people that were also in a panic.

 

[samuttodd]

I am hereby pledging to stop with the panic spew..  I think the point has been made of the severity of the situation.    More panic is only going to hurt innocent people that are already frightened.    My pledge to Thaivisa.com

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by samuttodd

[WaveHunter]

I read a fascinating letter to the editor on the Nature.com website published 04 February concerning two antiviral drugs that may prove to inhibit the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), so I thought I'd share here.

 

The link is https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0

 

The drugs are Remdesivir and Chloroquine.  The findings reveal that remdesivir and chloroquine are highly effective in the control of 2019-nCoV infection in vitro (in a petri dish), and seem to have actually worked in-vivo (in human)...in the man in Washington State who has recovered.

 

Remdesivir was seriously looked at during the SARS, MERS, and Ebola outbreak, and while it worked in-vitro, it did not work in-vivo.  They now have tried it In-Vivo with the man in Washington State in critical condition with nCoV, and it appears that it may have worked since he felt better within a day, and seems to have fully recovered after a few more days (no viral load detected). 

 

Of course without controlled random trials that can't yet say it actually works so formal trials are now about to begin.

 

The way it works is that once the virus enters a healthy cell, Remdesivir prevents the virus from replicating itself. 

 

Science-Speak:  The way nCov works is that once the virus is able to enter a healthy cell, the virus tries to use the healthy cell's replication machinery to replicate itself by changing the RNA sequence of the healthy cell from ATGCTT to AUGCUU, let's say. 

 

What Remdesivir does is puts an artificial "A" in the healthy cell so when the virus polymerization begins and hits the Remdesivir's "A", the virus' replication process can not go beyond the "A" and the replication process is halted.  

 

I'm grossly simplifying this just to make it clear (and probably doing a poor job of it) but I think you get the idea.

 

Remdesivir has already been tested on humans and its' safety is known.  Even though it is not FDA approved, scientist felt it was proper to use it anyway under the new "compassionate use" laws passed by the Trump Administration.

 

Even though it worked, it is still not "proven" to work in-vivo.  Effectiveness must be determined by randomized, placebo controlled trials which will now be conducted in China, and it should be known by April if it works.

 

Chloroquine has been around for years and used effectively in Malaria.  It has also been found to be promising in treating nCoV.  The way it works is in raising the pH of lysosomes thus preventing the virus from merging to the healthy cell.

 

There are many other drugs being tested as well.  In Thailand for instance, researchers are exploring the use of AIDS drugs (lopinavir and ritonavir) in human cases of nCoV with apparent success.

 

Of course all of these drugs, as promising as they sound, they must go through randomized, placebo controlled trials to determine true effectiveness, but that seems to be what is now about to happen in China, so this is incredibly encouraging!

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by WaveHunter

[WaveHunter]

11 hours ago, onebir said:

... I'd like to caution against taking these results at face value. The problem is that the estimates for 'relative import risk' (RIR) within China only use air passenger figures. But passenger traffic on China's rail network is around 5 times air passenger traffic (3x for high speed rail services only).

 

If someone has a handle on the proportion of China-Thailand flights/passengers coming from the various cities in China, it might be possible to get a better idea of whether the rather high estimated RIR for Thailand makes sense. (Or made sense when the flights were running...) ...

Selection_002.bmp 1.42 MB · 1 download

Statistics aside, I don't think anyone would argue that Thailand is a major (if not premiere international destination for Chinese tourists.  Or, put another way, Chinese is by far the largest group of foreign visitors to Thailand.  If you live in Chiang Mai, Bangkok, or Pattaya, you know that just by being there.

 

It is estimated that normally (before the outbreak) as many as 24,000 passengers from China land in Don Mueang Airport daily. 

 

It is also a confirmed fact that Thailand is the most popular destination for Wuhan residents travelling outside of China.  I showed documentation of that in one of my earlier posts but don't have time to look it up right now, but it is confirmed Thai government source, and I think it was something like 23,000 visitors from Wuhan flew into Bangkok during January...I think.

 

If you want stats that prove that more Chinese tourists visit Thailand than any other nationality , consider these from the Bangkok airports for 2019:

Edited February 6, 2020 by WaveHunter

[saengd]

3 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

Statistics aside, I don't think anyone would argue that Thailand is a major (if not premiere international destination for Chinese tourists.  Or, put another way, Chinese is by far the largest group of foreign visitors to Thailand.  If you live in Chiang Mai, Bangkok, or Pattaya, you know that just by being there.

 

But if you want stats, consider these from the Bangkok airports for 2019:

Those stats only show ATTA bookings so are only a fraction of the total numbers. Also, there are 13 international airports in Thailand to be considered, each of them carry international passengers. The following shows AOT traffic numbers, you have to add traffic from the other airports not owned by AOT.

 

https://www.airportthai.co.th/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Annual-Airport-2018.pdf

[WaveHunter]

18 minutes ago, saengd said:

Those stats only show ATTA bookings so are only a fraction of the total numbers. Also, there are 13 international airports in Thailand to be considered, each of them carry international passengers. The following shows AOT traffic numbers, you have to add traffic from the other airports not owned by AOT.

 

https://www.airportthai.co.th/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Annual-Airport-2018.pdf

Nonetheless I think it is indicative that Chinese nationals visit Thailand more than any other nationality, and with Don Mueang Airport's normal (pre-outbreak) average of over 25,000 arriving passengers from China daily, I don't think we really need to quibble over details.

 

The report you reference is out of date BTW, but if you browse through it, the stats confirm what I am saying, and if you look at the stats for passengers from Wuhan, what said in my earlier post a few weeks ago is also confirmed

Edited February 6, 2020 by WaveHunter

[saengd]

Just now, WaveHunter said:

Nonetheless I think it is indicative that Chinese nationals visit Thailand more than any other nationality, and with Don Mueang Airport's normal (pre-outbreak) average of over 25,000 arriving passengers from China daily, I don't think we really need to quibble over details.

I'm rather partial to a good quibble, from time to time.

[WaveHunter]

9 minutes ago, saengd said:

I'm rather partial to a good quibble, from time to time.

LOL... Me too ????  BTW, I edited my post as you were replying.  I added:

 

The report you reference is out of date BTW, but if you browse through it, the stats confirm what I am saying, and if you look at the stats for passengers from Wuhan, what said in my earlier post a few weeks ago about number of tourists arriving from Wuhan in Bangkok last month (pre-outbreak) is also supported.

 

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by WaveHunter

[saengd]

1 minute ago, WaveHunter said:

LOL... Me too ????  BTW, I edited my post as you were replying.  I added:

 

The report you reference is out of date BTW, but if you browse through it, the stats confirm what I am saying, and if you look at the stats for passengers from Wuhan, what said in my earlier post a few weeks ago is also confirmed

 

 

The 2019 report should be out next month.

[WaveHunter]

19 minutes ago, saengd said:

The 2019 report should be out next month.

Again, I think it needs no further clarification...there is a massive number of Chinese people who visit Thailand, more visitors than any other single nationality.  Anyone who lives in Bangkok or Chiang Mai know this without needing to look at stats, but the stats are out there for anyone to see.

 

Furthermore, Thailand is considered to be the #1 destination for Chinese tourists due to proximity, local populations of people with Chinese heritage, and the similarity of cultures.  Also verifiable by stats.

 

Apparently the numbers of both stats is high enough that Thailand is considered by many knowledgeable experts as the country most likely for there to be an outbreak outside of China should one actually occur.  Hopefully it will not happen of course, but the likelihood still exists and should be appreciated, especially by all of us living here.

 

I'm not saying there's cause to panic, find a bubble to live in, or even avoid going out in public.  I'm just saying we should all be realists, and take appropriate measures, especially the simple things like washing your hands often, using alcohol-based hand sanitizers, wearing masks when appropriate, and most importantly staying well informed from reliable science-based sources and not provocative, hyped up media, or state-sanctioned propaganda coming out of China.

Edited February 6, 2020 by WaveHunter

[WinnieTheKhwai]

I hate to interrupt a good panic and mistrust of China, but you could also ignore China altogether and just look at actual reported cases in other countries.

 

The number is going up in a linear trend (not cubic or exponential as you might expect), with relatively few infections outside of China, and *really* few deaths.

 

If it was highly infections and very lethal then you would definitely know about it by now, without needing any information out of China.

 

[WaveHunter]

54 minutes ago, WinnieTheKhwai said:

I hate to interrupt a good panic and mistrust of China, but you could also ignore China altogether and just look at actual reported cases in other countries.

 

The number is going up in a linear trend (not cubic or exponential as you might expect), with relatively few infections outside of China, and *really* few deaths.

 

If it was highly infections and very lethal then you would definitely know about it by now, without needing any information out of China.

 

I don't think you actually appreciate that the current R-naught estimations of 2.24 to 3.58 means nCoV is highly contagious.  Assuming an R0 of 3, that means that one index case will cause 3 healthy people to become infected, and those three infected people will EACH cause three more infections of healthy individuals...and so on, and so on!  Any R0 greater than one assures an epidemic. 

 

An R0 of 3 is far more serious and means that unless strong and decisive action is taken immediately at the first sign of an outbreak, containment efforts will probably not even be effective, and China waited a month before doing anything at all.  As a result, even with containment in place in Wuhan now, the virus has managed to spread to every single province in China now and all major cities have been heavily seeded. 

 

This is a international pandemic by definition.  The only reason this has not yet become a serious international pandemic is because most countries outside of China took strong and decisive action from the start and have serious containment measures in place that are actually working, but that, by no means, diminishes the potential for outbreaks to occur outside of China, considering the highly infectious nature of nCov.

 

As of yesterday 05 February deaths in China went from 427 to 493. That is a 15% increase.  Confirmed cases went from 20,600 to 24,516.  That is a 19% increase.

 

This is not even taking into account the number of cases not yet reported, nor the number that have yet to be confirmed.  There is a serious shortage of test kits in China right now so many suspected cases have yet to even be tested, let alone confirmed.

 

Also, very trustworthy statistics based on computer modeling, as reported in Lancet (probably the most well respected source of information on medical research in the world) suggest that there are over 75,000 infected people in Wuhan alone, many of which have not even stepped inside a hospital yet.

 

The actual lethality of this virus will not be realized all of those unconfirmed cases are accounted for. 

 

The real danger of nCov is the "Serious Complication Rate" of the virus. That is, the number of confirmed cases that do not recover and instead require ICU care.

 

The SCR is around 20%.  That means that 20% of confirmed cases will wind up requiring ICU care.  The number of cases requiring ICU care will far outpace the number of available ICU beds in Wuhan, despite the well publicized building of a couple of new hospitals, and it will happen very fast, as in a matter of weeks!

 

Do the math.  If just a fraction of the 75,000 infected people become confirmed cases, the number of ICU cases that will be required will be huge and far more than available.  There will not be enough ICU beds to treat them, and THAT is when the true lethality of this virus will become apparent.  You will see a death rate that nobody right now is even considering.

 

...And you really think this is nothing to be concerned about?

 

BTW, your last sentence is complete nonsense, no offence intended:

 

"If it was highly infections and very lethal then you would definitely know about it by now, without needing any information out of China."

 

How would you know anything at all about this virus unless it from information coming out of China about it?  C'mon...think before you talk!

 

All any of us know right now is what is being released by state-sponsored Chinese media (and that includes that stats you show from the Johns Hopkins site BTW).

 

It is only a hand full of brave doctors, scientists, nurses and journalist on the front lines of this crisis that are trying to get the truth out through social media that is presenting the real truth right now, and they do so at great personal risk of government censorship and even arrest under the "Rumors Law" which can land them in jail for 7 years.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by WaveHunter

[ExpatOK]

Then there's this, which might make the official statistics out of China quite a bit on the low side...