Corona Virus in Chiang Mai

[samuttodd]

 

 

 

From the dean of Medicine

 

 

[WaveHunter]

40 minutes ago, Logosone said:

No,  it does not make the global mortality rate 2.3%. As you rightly point out in the later part of your post scientists estimate that the actual number of infected people is much greater than China has stated, around 100,000. A mortality of around 100 would mean that the coronavirus has a mortality rate of about 0.1%, exactly the same as influenza.

 

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/how-new-wuhan-coronavirus-stacks-up-against-sars-mers

 

Indeed SARS had a mortality rate of 10%, but you forget that, crucially, it failed to spread among humans to the same degree as influenza.

 

The same goes for MERS. Like MERS and SARS the coronavirus originated among animals and is not yet adapted to spread among humans, something the influenza virus has done for many hundreds of years. Hence the much wider and consistent spreading of influenza. If influenza kills 500,000 people a year and you were not worried, why are you now worried about the coronavirus? It has the exact same mortality rate as influenza. I do not understand why you seem so concerned.

 

Yes, R naught estimates were as high as 5, but the accepted figure is now 3. Either way, these are all guesstimates about an unknown figure. A figure which can not be truly known until the pandemic is over.

 

Of course for those personally affected it's a crisis. Is it a crisis for me and you? No. What are the chances you and I will be personally affected? Slim to unknown. Not impossible, but very, very unlikely. Certainly not as likely as dying of influenza. By a long shot.

 

And btw, I don't believe the Chinese wanted to cover this up, all their actions point to the exact opposite. They're doing what they can. It is too early to know if their measures will have any effect or not. 

 

Either way, if you were not worried about 500,000 deaths each year from influenza, why worry about 100 deaths from a new animal flu mutation? It does not seem proportionate.

 

Anyway, that a virus is infectious during the incubation period is nothing new, it is just unusual for a respiratory disease. Yes it makes containment harder. But even the last real pandemic in 2009, well it had over 500,000 deaths, again flu, but the world carried on and most people don't even remember it now. 

 

This is a media and social media panic. Not a crisis, unless you are personally affected. It  c o u l d  cause a financial crisis if the social media and media panic continues to be spread, in spite of all the evidence.

We are ALL personally affected by this simply as members of the global community.  Maybe our physical health is not threatened...yet.  But what about sense of well being and personal safety, what about our emotional reaction to this.  What about our sense of compassion for those who ARE being affected by this in a very real and physical way right now?

 

Those things play a big role in everyone's life, and something like this challenges the peace of mind of any caring individual, whether or not it is happening in your own backyard.

 

This is indeed a disaster!  Aside from the dead and those infected by the virus to date, over 50 million people's live have been affected with lockdown and quarantine.  That fits the definition of "disaster" in my book.

 

What has happened in China could easily spread to Thailand, or the United States, or anywhere in the world especially when those in political power make stupid or compromised decisions such as the Chinese did in this case.

 

China could have circumvented this disaster last month but ignored the potential seriousness of the first reported cases in Wuhan.  Now it becomes the problem of the global community when it needn't have been.

 

You seem to downplay the significance and potential of pandemics like this or SARS.  I do not.  I am not saying that the Wuhan coronavirus will be a disaster of epic proportions but any novel virus like this easily has the potential to be just that if proper actions are not take quickly and decisively.

 

The Chinese government blew it big time!  How will the Thai government respond with this problem truly on our back doorstep?  How will other nations respond?  THAT is the real question and my real concern.

 

As regards SARS, The only reason it was not a epic crisis is mainly that transmission of the virus did not occur during the incubation period but only occured after symptoms presented themselves.  Such is not the case with 019-nCoV.  To me, that's a real concern.  How can you deny the potential of what this virus could do on a global scale if things got out of hand?

 

FYI, I'm not getting any of my information from social media or sources pandering for ratings through sensationalism.  Most of what I read is from various global national health organizations and recognized scientific journals. 

 

I am very selective about what I consider to be reliable sources, and it sounds like you are too.  Not really sure why we have such a difference of opinion on this to be honest

 

 

Edited January 28, 2020 by WaveHunter

[samuttodd]

God forbid the Chinese Gov't lose face by admitting that there may be a problem.

[WaveHunter]

5 minutes ago, samuttodd said:

God forbid the Chinese Gov't lose face by admitting that there may be a problem.

That, essentially, is the crux of the whole problem in China, not only with this virus but many other things happening in China such as their interaction Hong Kong  and Taiwan, their Belt and Road Initiative, etc... . 

 

CCP Party goals and the Chinese concept of "face" always seem to override moral responsibility.  Sad really because China is really a great nation and so are its' people.

[Logosone]

21 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

We are ALL personally affected by this simply as members of the global community.  Maybe our physical health is not threatened...yet.  But what about sense of well being and personal safety, what about our emotional reaction to this.  What about our sense of compassion for those who ARE being affected by this in a very real and physical way right now?

 

Those things play a big role in everyone's life, and something like this challenges the peace of mind of any caring individual, whether or not it is happening in your own backyard.

 

What has happened in China could easily spread to Thailand, or the United States, or anywhere in the world especially when those in political power make stupid or compromised decisions.

 

That's exactly what happened in China last month when the government ignored the potential seriousness of the first reported cases in Wuhan.  Now it becomes the problem of the global community when it needn't have been.

 

You seem to downplay the significance and potential of pandemics like this or SARS.  I do not.  I am not saying that the Wuhan coronavirus will be a disaster of epic proportions but any novel virus like this easily has the potential to be just that if proper actions are not take quickly and decisively.

 

The Chinese government blew it big time!  How will the Thai government respond with this problem truly on our back doorstep?  How will other nations respond?  THAT is the real question and my real concern.

 

As regards SARS, The only reason it was not a epic crisis is mainly that transmission of the virus did not occur during the incubation period but only occured after symptoms presented themselves.  Such is not the case with 019-nCoV.  To me, that's a real concern.  How can you deny the potential of what this virus could do on a global scale if things got out of hand?

 

FYI, I'm not getting any of my information from social media or sources pandering for ratings through sensationalism.  Most of what I read is from various global national health organizations and recognized scientific journals. 

 

I am very selective about what I consider to be reliable sources, and it sounds like you are too.  Not really sure why we have such a difference of opinion on this to be honest

 

 

We are not affected in a serious way, though are we? We are not dying of lung disease. We are not locked down in Chiang Mai. So yes, we may not be able to buy pollution masks anymore, but my sense of well being is in  no way diminished nor my feeling of personal safety. And as much as I struggle to conjure up an emotional reaction to complete strangers in Wuhan struggling with lung disease, I fail miserably. We are not seriously affected, are we?

 

Let's say it does happen in Thailand. We have 100 deaths of lung disease in Chiang Mai. Or whatever figure it may be. Provided it is well within the 500,000 global total we saw in 2009 how will it affect me more than a few road deaths? It will not. 

 

Even if a pandemic of serious proportions happens globally our socieites are large enough, robust enough and advanced enough to survive. As we have seen time and time again with pandemics.

 

See, I don't think there will be a disaster of epic proportions. This is an animal flu virus mutation. We saw with Sars and Mers, they don't go for long. Even if they do, there are for more dangerous things. 

 

 

[Logosone]

18 minutes ago, samuttodd said:

God forbid the Chinese Gov't lose face by admitting that there may be a problem.

They have admitted there is a problem. They're doing what they can.

[Kelsall]

41 minutes ago, samuttodd said:

 

 

 

From the dean of Medicine

 

 

Well in all seriousness that does it for me.  This guy knows what he's talking about and notice that both of them are wearing masks.  They're the experts and they must think masks are a good idea.

[cornishcarlos]

28 minutes ago, Logosone said:

They have admitted there is a problem. They're doing what they can.

 

Have they admitted the real extent of the problem though ?? Are they doing everything that could be done to prevent further spreading ??

[orang37]

31 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Even if a pandemic of serious proportions happens globally our socieites are large enough, robust enough and advanced enough to survive. As we have seen time and time again with pandemics.

 

You don't mind a little cul, then ?

 

33 minutes ago, Logosone said:

See, I don't think there will be a disaster of epic proportions. This is an animal flu virus mutation. We saw with Sars and Mers, they don't go for long. Even if they do, there are for more dangerous things. 

 

Glad to see an optimistic psychic in these parts, relieved to know that this virus' unique (for coronaviruses, so far) ability to infect before symptoms appear (incubation period) should not concern us.

 

~o:37;

[Logosone]

49 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Have they admitted the real extent of the problem though ?? Are they doing everything that could be done to prevent further spreading ??

 

Too early to say. I can tell you in a few months or a year.

 

41 minutes ago, orang37 said:

 

You don't mind a little cul, then ?

 

 

Glad to see an optimistic psychic in these parts, relieved to know that this virus' unique (for coronaviruses, so far) ability to infect before symptoms appear (incubation period) should not concern us.

 

~o:37;

 

What is the biggest drain by far on any country's resources? Pension payments. Every country has to incur gigantic debts in the capital markets just to pay what the elderly claim in pensions. To say nothing of the spending on health, the vast majority of which goes on the elderly. The biggest issue, fiscally speaking, is that the old are living longer and growing in numbers, and living at the cost of the young, and younger taxpayers. And out of the blue, voila, a number of viruses that disproportionately, almost selectively kill off these elderly. You can't make this stuff up.

 

What my opinion is of this, it does not matter in the big scheme of things. But it is a curious coincidence, don't you think?

 

I'm not a psychic, but given the fact that SARS, by all accounts far deadlier than Cov, killed 800, given the fact that both SARS and MERS failed to infect at a rate even remotely resembling that of influenza, and that the very real and gigantic influenza pandemics, say of 2009 killed around half a million people, a fact that is barely remembered now, I think it is safe to say that the likelihood of a disaster of epic proportions has arrived in the form of Cov is exceedingly slim. I'm not losing sleep at night over this. Maybe you are, but I think that will prove to be an overreaction. Just my view.

 

And btw, it is not unique for a virus to infect during incubation. It is just unusual for a virus that leads to respiratory disease. Sure, it does not help in the containment, but even if the worst happens and there is a large pandemic the likelihood of the Cov coming close to the kills of influenza is very, very small. 

 

So if we were not worried before about 500,000 deaths EVERY year due to influenza, why should we panic over 100 or so deaths from Cov? I don't think we should.

Edited January 28, 2020 by Logosone

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

Problem, reaction, solution.   Mass vaccinations coming. Travel restrictions etc.

 

Go look at flight tracker. Wuhan is not locked down. Smoke and mirrors psyop. The elites are not going to release something they can't control.

 

People are going to get sick but it's activated thru the eye. See how they kind of tell the truth and say it's transmitted by the eye?  People will get sick from their screens/smart phones that can create symptoms. 

[WaveHunter]

As is historically the case, China is very good at reacting to a crisis but very poor at preventing one.

 

China has a very poor track record at dealing proactively with such issues as the current Wuhan coronavirus. During the SARS epidemic in 2002 and 2003, officials covered up the extent of the crisis, delaying the response. The Chinese government has promised far more transparency this time, and the World Health Organization has praised its cooperation with scientists, yet mistrust of the local and national authorities, compounded by missteps and mistakes in handling the current situation, runs deep.

 

China’s initial delay in reporting cases back in early December are an example of its rigidly hierarchical bureaucracy which discourages local officials from raising bad news with central bosses whose help they might need. And it silos those officials off from one another, making it harder to see, much less manage, the full scope of spiraling crises.

 

By the time that the central government hears about it, it’s already become a huge problem.

 

The Wuhan coronavirus, like other health crises before it, is bringing out some of the deepest flaws and contradictions in a Chinese system that, for all its historic feats, remains a work in progress.

 

Those flaws, which have long frustrated Chinese leaders, appear to have played a role in everything from the pace at which officials responded to the coronavirus outbreak, to China’s yearslong inability to address the health risks that experts have long warned could lead to an outbreak just like this one.

 

While the country is now mobilizing a nationwide response — one of the system’s strengths — the incident is already a lesson in the political weak points that can bring grave consequences for China and, as infections spread, the global community.

 

When you look at the coronavirus, it looks a lot like what happened with SARS. It involves a very similar template.

 

The SARS epidemic, which killed hundreds of people in 2002 and 2003, initially spread unchecked when local Chinese officials minimized early reports.  Their fear was not public unrest, it later emerged, but getting in trouble with the party bosses who controlled their careers.

 

Guan Yi, a professor of infectious diseases in Hong Kong who helped identify SARS, has accused Chinese authorities of once more delaying action, including obstructing his own efforts to investigate the Wuhan outbreak, and his informed opinion of the current situation is not too encouraging.  In fact it is quite dire.  Google it!

 

This is a continuous theme in central-local relations in China. You do not want to be the one to bring bad news.  It leads officials on both sides of the center-local divide to do many counterproductive, irrational things.

 

At the same time, China’s quasi-imperial system leaves the top party bosses in Beijing with little direct power over what happens in the provinces — policy proclamations are sometimes ignored or defied — other than promoting or punishing subordinates.

 

The two ends of the system are engaged in a constant push-pull dynamic, putting them occasionally at odds — particularly in moments of crisis, when each is looking to blame the other.

 

This has been an issue throughout China’s modern history.  Once a clear problem has emerged, it’s very good at diverting resources (i.e.: building a 1,000 bed hospital specifically to deal with the Wuhan coronavirus IN ONLY 10 DAYS) but it’s not good at dealing with emerging problems. So it’s built to be reactive instead of proactive.

 

This needs to change.  When it comes to pandemics such as this, we are ALL part of a borderless global community and we should ALL share concern.

 

Edited January 28, 2020 by WaveHunter

[samuttodd]

9 hours ago, CobraSnakeNecktie said:

Problem, reaction, solution.  

 

Go look at flight tracker. Wuhan is not locked down. Smoke and mirrors psyop. The elites are not going to release something they can't control.

 

People are going to get sick but it's activated thru the eye. See how they kind of tell the truth and say it's transmitted by the eye?  People will get sick from their screens/smart phones that can create symptoms. 

I ain't saying you are wrong, Absolutely dead on with the Hegelian dialect.    but I believe any mucous membrane or body tissue that secretes fluid makes a favorable environment for passing viral pathogens (bacterial and microbial too).    Sinus tissue,  all of the digestive tract,  the eyes, and reproductive gear.

 

It is time for full body condoms and more than arm length distance dancing partners.

Edited January 29, 2020 by samuttodd

[cerox]

Thank you for your insight about China WaveHunter. It is a good way to learn about the country.

 

You have to see the good things. Also about coronavirus. We can finally wear a mask without looking weird. Without people thinking we are strange people. Thailands non-stop burning season leaves me no option. But finally, Thai people accept us wearing a mask and think it is because of the virus.

 

The main reason I wear a mask outside is the air pollution. Luckily I have around 70 masks here from my last shopping trip. I am reading it is difficult to get them now, though I am not sure if that is true or hysteria.

[samuttodd]

I was all set to go out and paddle the kayak,  but today the air is choking and thick with nasty blue smog.   What a drag.

[cerox]

Hahaha I do not even bother to check.

But I will soon wear my mask to get some fresh air into the rooms and then purify it again.

I stopped checking the pm2.5 outside - why? Already know the result. Can save the time by just putting on the mask right away. 55555

[stephenterry]

15 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

 

Umm, but it's NOT happening where I live. 

 

Of course it's a crisis for anyone personally affected. The very vast majority of the world's population is not and most likely will not be.

 

There are around 100 deaths from Cov. There are 500,000 deaths from influenza EVERY year. And nobody bats an eye lid. 

 

Both influenza and Cov have a mortality rate of 0.1%. I like my odds here. Even more given that Cov is not adapted to spread among humans, being an animal flu, the way influenza is.

 

It's definitely not a crisis for me. I'm sorry if it is for you. It is not for the very vast majority of the population and is unlikely  to be. Not any more than influenza is anyway.

 

 

Clearly there is a media promotion that hypes up high risk issues like Coronavirus - which is how today's world reacts to events that could particularly adversely affect populations in many countries.

 

However, scientists' main concern now is not comparable with influenza per se, but the possibility of the virus mutating into a far deadlier version that could be readily transmitted from human to human.

 

A good example is HIV. This virus has been very difficult to contain because it's an 'imperfect' virus in that the cells don't reproduce consistently and are thus resistant to the body's immune system. I understand that today's medication includes a combination of drugs to combat and contain its adverse effect on our immune system.

 

Coronavirus could well mutate into a far more deadly version of influenza  - with a higher transition rate, and if it becomes an imperfect version, it could cause pandemic casualties that would far exceed 500,000 influenza victims.

 

 

 

 

[WaveHunter]

1 hour ago, stephenterry said:

Clearly there is a media promotion that hypes up high risk issues like Coronavirus - which is how today's world reacts to events that could particularly adversely affect populations in many countries.

 

However, scientists' main concern now is not comparable with influenza per se, but the possibility of the virus mutating into a far deadlier version that could be readily transmitted from human to human.

 

A good example is HIV. This virus has been very difficult to contain because it's an 'imperfect' virus in that the cells don't reproduce consistently and are thus resistant to the body's immune system. I understand that today's medication includes a combination of drugs to combat and contain its adverse effect on our immune system.

 

Coronavirus could well mutate into a far more deadly version of influenza  - with a higher transition rate, and if it becomes an imperfect version, it could cause pandemic casualties that would far exceed 500,000 influenza victims.

 

 

 

 

Any "novel" virus should be cause for concern by EVERYBODY for just the reason you mentioned...because of the likelihood  of mutations to more virulent forms.  The fact that humans are now (as of December) being infected by this particular coronavirus is evidence that a mutation occurred once and it would foolish to assume further mutations are not possible or likely.

 

Couple this with how poorly the outbreak was initially handled by the Chinese and you have a worrisome situation for everybody not only inside China but everywhere in the world now.

 

Due to the way disasters are initially handled in China, they have again allowed the "Golden Window" for containment to pass, just as has happened numerous times before with health crises in China.  The time that they should have taken quick and decisive action was back in early December when the first cases became known.  Instead, they allowed over a month to pass before any significant action was taken.

 

Although Chinese authorities are now making strident attempts to manage the crisis and showing far more transparency to the global community than was the case with SARS, they again reacted far too late and have made serious errors of judgement in how to effectively manage the crisis. 

 

Consider that half of the population of Wuhan was allowed to leave the region BEFORE the lockdown occurred.  Many left simply because of the Lunar New Year and were completely unaware of the pending crisis, but many left in order to escape the outbreak once the government admitted the problem but before they instituted the lockdown!

 

The timing of the outbreak coinciding with the Lunar New Year cold not have been worse!

 

Many of these people who travelled internationally, if subjected any screening at all, were only subjected to cursory thermo-screening at destination airports. Since most would have been asymptomatic they would not have developed a fever yet so that screening would have been wholly ineffective.

 

Thus, over 5 million people, many of which could possibly be infected are NOT being contained but are out in the general population, not only within China but outside the country as well.

 

Presently, we have no idea how serious the Wuhan coronavirus will be.  It's true there is no reason to panic for people outside of China, but that doesn't mean everyone should be genuinely concerned.  As the saying goes, it's better to plan for the worst and hope for the best"

 

Considering that the incubation period is thought to be as long as two weeks and symptoms apparently do not appear during this time, the real number of non-contained infected people won't be realized for a couple of weeks still.

 

More importantly, most evidence indicates that even during the incubation period, asymptomatic carriers can be spreading the virus to other people.  IMO, that is the single reason that this virus could far more dangerous than SARS was, even though it seems to be less virulent (at least for now) than SARS was.

 

With over 5 million uncontained people from Wuhan out there in the general population (both within China and abroad, that's a big cause for concern for ALL of us IMO.

Edited January 29, 2020 by WaveHunter

[Logosone]

2 hours ago, stephenterry said:

Clearly there is a media promotion that hypes up high risk issues like Coronavirus - which is how today's world reacts to events that could particularly adversely affect populations in many countries.

 

However, scientists' main concern now is not comparable with influenza per se, but the possibility of the virus mutating into a far deadlier version that could be readily transmitted from human to human.

 

A good example is HIV. This virus has been very difficult to contain because it's an 'imperfect' virus in that the cells don't reproduce consistently and are thus resistant to the body's immune system. I understand that today's medication includes a combination of drugs to combat and contain its adverse effect on our immune system.

 

Coronavirus could well mutate into a far more deadly version of influenza  - with a higher transition rate, and if it becomes an imperfect version, it could cause pandemic casualties that would far exceed 500,000 influenza victims.

 

 

 

 

Well, hypothetically a lot of things  c o u l d  happen. The evidence however points to Cov having the same mortality rate as influenza, if you accept Jonathan Read's  of Lancaster University figure of 100,00, the same figure the chinese nurse gave roughly, and the around 107 or so deaths. That would be a 0.1 % mortality rate. Same as influenza. So it would appear Cov is not 'far deadlier' than influenza. It's about the same.

 

Cov's cousins SARs and MERS were unable to multiply in a sustained way, the way influenza does. They were designed for animals and had not yet adapted to humans, the way say influenza has for hundreds of years. It is therefore doubtful Cov will be adapted in this way.

 

Yes, it  c o u l d happen that Cov does show a transmission similar to influenza, ie a sustained long term transmission. A substantial pandemic with a 0.1 death rate has happened before, many times. The last one was in 2009, H1N1, led to some 500,000 deaths. Therefore whilst you may want to cook food products from china, wash your hands, etc, the odds of dying from the disease are still small.

[dcnx]

14 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Therefore whilst you may want to cook food products from china, wash your hands, etc, the odds of dying from the disease are still small.

You could catch the virus, not get sick but still infect others who could die due to their age or various existing health conditions. And they could then spread it to others.

 

We need to think a little bigger than “I probably won’t die.”

[WaveHunter]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Well, hypothetically a lot of things  c o u l d  happen. The evidence however points to Cov having the same mortality rate as influenza, if you accept Jonathan Read's  of Lancaster University figure of 100,00, the same figure the chinese nurse gave roughly, and the around 107 or so deaths. That would be a 0.1 % mortality rate. Same as influenza. So it would appear Cov is not 'far deadlier' than influenza. It's about the same.

 

Cov's cousins SARs and MERS were unable to multiply in a sustained way, the way influenza does. They were designed for animals and had not yet adapted to humans, the way say influenza has for hundreds of years. It is therefore doubtful Cov will be adapted in this way.

 

Yes, it  c o u l d happen that Cov does show a transmission similar to influenza, ie a sustained long term transmission. A substantial pandemic with a 0.1 death rate has happened before, many times. The last one was in 2009, H1N1, led to some 500,000 deaths. Therefore whilst you may want to cook food products from china, wash your hands, etc, the odds of dying from the disease are still small.

It's really far too early to peg a number on mortality rate.  It is, after all, a "novel" virus, thus the name.  Very little is actually known about it at the moment.

 

At present the mortality rate (based on actual deaths) is a little under 3% but that number could change dramatically (up or down) over the next few weeks as more becomes known of the virus's evolution.  The best attitude of course is to "plan for the worst and hope for the best".  True, influenza has a low 0.1% mortality rate but SARS had a 10% mortality rate and MERS had a 35% mortality rate.  There is nothing at present to indicate what the real number is for n-Cov mortality rate.

 

 The matured mortality rate for n-cov will really depend on whether or not the virus mutates further (whether it stabilizes, or becomes more or less virulent than it presently is), and how effective pharma treatment options currently in the pipeline pan out.  At present the only treatment option once ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome) sets in is low tidal volume ventilation, patient induced paralysis, and prone positioning (links included to the New England Journal of Medicine white papers on ARDS. 

 

Pharma treatment options related to HIV are being tested of course, and NIH says that a vaccine could be only several months away so there's a lot more biomedical hope than there was in the past, especially when you consider that it took over 10 years to develop effective vaccines for Ebola.

 

From credible sources I have seen which I will link below, I think 2% mortality rate is likely but what is troubling is that the containment rate in Wuhan is far lower than people first realized when the lockdown was instituted.  It was estimated to be a 90% containment rate, when in actuality it has now been acknowledged by the Chinese that about 5 million people left Wuhan right before the lockdown.  At 90% containment, it was estimated 59,000 infections would occur and 1500 would die, but at 50% containment, it's estimated that 5 million people would be infected and 100,000 would die.  Whether or not these predictions become true only time will tell.

 

In a study published Saturday, Yu Xiaohua, a professor at the University of Göttingen in Germany, concluded that the epidemic cannot be controlled if the quarantine rate of the infectious population falls below 90 percent.

If 90 percent of patients are quarantined, his modeling suggested, the final number of cases might reach 59,000, with 1,500 deaths. But if only half the infected patients are quarantined, the final number of infected people could approach 5 million, with more than 100,000 deaths.

http://uni-goettingen.de/en/infectious+diseases/619691.html

 

Edited January 29, 2020 by WaveHunter

[TheAppletons]

Post #50 from this thread shows screen shots from chiangmainews.co.th - Chinese woman found dead in Chiang Mai hotel room.  Lots of guys in HAZMAT suits in the photos.  (It's in Thai so I can't really read the story.)

 

(If you're trying to reach that website, use a VPN.  Otherwise, 'it can't be found'.)

 

Edit:  

 

Edited January 29, 2020 by TheAppletons

[WaveHunter]

29 minutes ago, TheAppletons said:

Post #50 from this thread shows screen shots from chiangmainews.co.th - Chinese woman found dead in Chiang Mai hotel room.  Lots of guys in HAZMAT suits in the photos.  (It's in Thai so I can't really read the story.)

 

(If you're trying to reach that website, use a VPN.  Otherwise, 'it can't be found'.)

 

Edit:  

 

ENGLISH TRANSLATION (Via Google Translate)

Chiang Mai Province after knowing about Therefore coordinate the rescue team And a medical team from Nakornping Hospital inspected the scene By having to wear dresses and equipment Protect tightly By reaching the scene In the said room Found a Chinese woman lying dead.

Which the officers have jointly conducted an autopsy Initially, no traces of the attack were found. Body in any way The officer therefore has made Recorded data to expedite the investigation and expedited the removal of the corpse at a later time.

 

However, after being informed of the said information, the news media contacted and asked Colonel Manot Sudsawad, Director of Mae Rim Police Station, to disclose that the initial investigation Found that the deceased traveled to Thailand to travel with 5 friends arrived in Thailand yesterday. After entering According to the investigation, a friend said that before death, the dead are healthy and strong. The night rest as usual, but when waking up early to find that died without knowing the reason.

 

However, the cause of death cannot be summarized. And the deceased is a Chinese, it must be carried out in detail. Now, the medical team has taken the dead body to perform an autopsy at Nakornping Hospital To summarize the cause of death In detail again As well as speeding up contact Embassy to be informed To speed up the examination Further information about the said tourists who died

[WaveHunter]

Just in case you think we're all nice and safe here in Thailand and what's happening in China is "someone else's" problem, consider this:  

 

1) According to a report by the WorldPop team at the University of Southampton, Outside of Chinese cities, on a global scale Bangkok faces the biggest threat from coronavirus due to the sheer number of travellers from China, and in particular the number of travellers who originate from Wuhan and neighbouring provinces.  

 

2) The report found that Thailand was also the country most at risk from the spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV).  The report echoes a similar warning by travel market research firm m1nd-set which has predicted the coronavirus outbreak will affect Thailand the most as a destination by “quite a long margin”.  The most 'at-risk' countries or regions worldwide are Thailand (1), Japan (2) and Hong Kong (3).  USA is placed 6th on the list, Australia 10th and the UK 17th, the report said.

 

Thailand is a top foreign holiday destination for tourists from Wuhan.  About 22,000 people from the city at the centre of the coronavirus outbreak have visited in January alone.  Thailand accounts for 33% of the circa 1.4 million outbound flights from Wuhan

 

While all arrivals from China will now be screened and thermal scanned for signs of the disease, this really amounts to nothing since those infected but still in the incubation period will be asymptomatic and without any signs of fever.  Thai officials have made no mention at all about any sort of 7-14 day quarenteening procedures as many other countries such as the USA, Germany and France have instituted for inbound passengers from the affected areas.

 

3) According to official reports, Thailand has confirmed 14 cases of 2019-nCoV infection - the highest number of any country outside of China.  Also yesterday, Thailand’s public health minister Anutin Charnvirakul told Sky News that he expects the number of infections in the country to rise.

 

Like it or not, we are all a part of this story now.  Plan for the worst; hope for the best.  I hope that Thai officials do things a lot better than the Chinese have done so far at containing this, and NOT merely act as glad-handing politicians (in the worst sense of the term).

 

Edited January 29, 2020 by WaveHunter

[Logosone]

4 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

It's really far too early to peg a number on mortality rate.  It is, after all, a "novel" virus, thus the name.  Very little is actually known about it at the moment.

 

At present the mortality rate (based on actual deaths) is a little under 3% but that number could change dramatically (up or down) over the next few weeks as more becomes known of the virus's evolution.  The best attitude of course is to "plan for the worst and hope for the best".  True, influenza has a low 0.1% mortality rate but SARS had a 10% mortality rate and MERS had a 35% mortality rate.  There is nothing at present to indicate what the real number is for n-Cov mortality rate.

 

 The matured mortality rate for n-cov will really depend on whether or not the virus mutates further (whether it stabilizes, or becomes more or less virulent than it presently is), and how effective pharma treatment options currently in the pipeline pan out.  At present the only treatment option once ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome) sets in is low tidal volume ventilation, patient induced paralysis, and prone positioning (links included to the New England Journal of Medicine white papers on ARDS. 

 

Pharma treatment options related to HIV are being tested of course, and NIH says that a vaccine could be only several months away so there's a lot more biomedical hope than there was in the past, especially when you consider that it took over 10 years to develop effective vaccines for Ebola.

 

From credible sources I have seen which I will link below, I think 2% mortality rate is likely but what is troubling is that the containment rate in Wuhan is far lower than people first realized when the lockdown was instituted.  It was estimated to be a 90% containment rate, when in actuality it has now been acknowledged by the Chinese that about 5 million people left Wuhan right before the lockdown.  At 90% containment, it was estimated 59,000 infections would occur and 1500 would die, but at 50% containment, it's estimated that 5 million people would be infected and 100,000 would die.  Whether or not these predictions become true only time will tell.

 

In a study published Saturday, Yu Xiaohua, a professor at the University of Göttingen in Germany, concluded that the epidemic cannot be controlled if the quarantine rate of the infectious population falls below 90 percent.

If 90 percent of patients are quarantined, his modeling suggested, the final number of cases might reach 59,000, with 1,500 deaths. But if only half the infected patients are quarantined, the final number of infected people could approach 5 million, with more than 100,000 deaths.

http://uni-goettingen.de/en/infectious+diseases/619691.html

 

It is called coronavirus because the virus looks like it has a crown, not because it's 'novel', lol.

 

The figure of a 2.1 death rate that you provide is, with a high probability false. Here's why, it is based only on the official number of cases China provides. In reality, as you agreed before, the true, actual number of infected people is likely far higher than 6147. Jonathan Read of Lancaster University has provided an estimate of around 100,000, roughly the same figure was provided by a nurse on the ground. The real figure is thus more likely around 0.1%, which is the same mortality rate as influenza.

 

Thank you though for posting the very interesting estimates from the University of Goettingen, which I regard very highly.  If we examine those figures the death rates provided are estimates ranging from 2.0 % to 2.5%, with a total number of 100,000 deaths. 

 

Those numbers are far better than I had dared to dream, in fact, only one fifth of the total deaths of the H1N1 pandemic of 2009. Though it does not look like it is actually very good news.  

Edited January 29, 2020 by Logosone

[Logosone]

2 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

Just in case you think we're all nice and safe here in Thailand and what's happening in China is "someone else's" problem, consider this:  

 

1) According to a report by the WorldPop team at the University of Southampton, Outside of Chinese cities, on a global scale Bangkok faces the biggest threat from coronavirus due to the sheer number of travellers from China, and in particular the number of travellers who originate from Wuhan and neighbouring provinces.  

 

2) The report found that Thailand was also the country most at risk from the spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV).  The report echoes a similar warning by travel market research firm m1nd-set which has predicted the coronavirus outbreak will affect Thailand the most as a destination by “quite a long margin”.  The most 'at-risk' countries or regions worldwide are Thailand (1), Japan (2) and Hong Kong (3).  USA is placed 6th on the list, Australia 10th and the UK 17th, the report said.

 

Like it or not, we are all a part of this story now.  Plan for the worst; hope for the best.  I hope that Thai officials do things a lot better than the Chinese have done so far at containing this, and NOT merely act as glad-handing politicians (in the worst sense of the term).

 

No, we are not all part of this story. If you look at the SARS figures from the WHO, and remember SARS had a mortality almost 5 times greater than Cov a grand total of two deaths were recorded in Thailand.

 

How many? TWO. I repeat TWO people died of SARS, a virus with a much greater mortality rate than Cov.

 

https://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/2003_07_11/en/

 

Now, since Cov spreads more successfully than SARS, even with its lower mortality rate Cov, is likely to cause more deaths than two. In fact if you extrapolate the Goettingen University estimate worst case scenario of 100,00 deaths, that could mean 250 deaths in Thailand.

 

While regrettable, around 20,000 Thais die on Thailand's roads every year. 250 deaths from the Coronavirus are regrettable, but focusing on better driving in Thailand would make more sense.

Edited January 29, 2020 by Logosone

[opalred]

you+know you will never get the truth / how many affected here / like SARS the true number  was never known / as would affect tourist numbers/ the word through the local

Thais say the Chinese resort near samong 

one has died /it came from the talk of the locals /true or false will never know?

[Logosone]

Probably true, but those are the official WHO figures, 2 people died in Thailand from SARS.

 

https://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/2003_07_11/en/

 

Whilst the real number could be different it is unlikely to greater by a factor of 100 or 1000. We can still extrapolate on the actual numbers, what else can we go on but actual verified evidence?

[stillhereandlovinit]

Bet you Old Gits wished you had bought health insurance now........

[WaveHunter]

16 hours ago, Logosone said:

It is called coronavirus because the virus looks like it has a crown, not because it's 'novel', lol.

 

The figure of a 2.1 death rate that you provide is, with a high probability false. Here's why, it is based only on the official number of cases China provides. In reality, as you agreed before, the true, actual number of infected people is likely far higher than 6147. Jonathan Read of Lancaster University has provided an estimate of around 100,000, roughly the same figure was provided by a nurse on the ground. The real figure is thus more likely around 0.1%, which is the same mortality rate as influenza.

 

Thank you though for posting the very interesting estimates from the University of Goettingen, which I regard very highly.  If we examine those figures the death rates provided are estimates ranging from 2.0 % to 2.5%, with a total number of 100,000 deaths. 

 

Those numbers are far better than I had dared to dream, in fact, only one fifth of the total deaths of the H1N1 pandemic of 2009. Though it does not look like it is actually very good news.  

Don't be obtuse!  I referred to it as "novel" because firstly, that is the specific name of the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV = 2019 NOVEL Coronavirus).  More importantly the reason I stated "novel" is because it is a new (novel) form of coronavirus, and thus very little is known about it or how it will evolve (i.e.: possible mutations in human hosts).

 

You may be correct about mortality rate not beng 2%; it could prove to be lower, but it also could prove to be far higher.  It really all depends on how effective containment efforts are, and what advanced treatment options (i.e.: antiviral drugs) pan out, and how quickly an effective vaccine can be developed.  Nobody will really know until it can be looked at in a historical perspective.

 

However, the current way the Chinese government is managing containment of this outbreak is incredibly concerning, in terms of potential infection and mortality rates, and those numbers are skyrocketing on a daily basis at present! 

 

The Central, provincial and local governments waited almost a month before containment efforts were initiated, even though the Lunar New Year was approaching and tens of millions of people would be migrating for the holiday.  Worst, when they did announce their containment strategy, it's estimated that millions of people had already left the Wuhan area for holiday, and even worse than that, they announced the plan days before it was instituted so many more people were able to flee in panic before the actual containment began. 

 

All told, over 5 million people are estimated to have left the affected areas.  This means that the maximum containment can only be 50% at most, instead of 90% containment which is what most predictions are being based on.  And even worse than all of that is the fact that most of those 5 million people who left the country were only thermo-screened at destination airports, if they were screened at all early on.

 

I totally agree with you that far more infections have probably occurred than are being reported.  ALL figures on infection rate and death rate from sources such as Lancaster University are based on what statistics the Chinese government is releasing so really NOBODY knows the true figures, and will not know until times goes on.  The same confusion existed with the SARS virus when the Chinese government was even less transparent than they are being now, but make no mistake, the CCP is clearly tailoring their statistics to their own means.

 

My concern is not to scare people but to strongly point out that the Chinese government is a) has not handled this well, and continues to poorly manage things...not due to incompetence but by intentional design to "save face" , and b) intentionally misleading their citizens and the global community regarding the severity of this outbreak.

 

I have many friends in China (in the Shenzhen area) , and some work in the medical field...and they are genuinely scared, and also angered by how lax the government reacted early on, and how they are putting out incredibly misleading propaganda to keep the public from panicking. According to most of them who are the front line, this is a true crisis in the making. 

 

It should have never gotten this far!  Had proper action been taken back in early December when the first cases were reported, we would not be in this mess!  But what did the government do?  They covered it up, they glossed over it, and those scientists, doctors, and journalists that voiced concerned were threatened and arrested under the "false rumors" law.  Even after 56 confirmed cases were know, the government was actively promoting a record-breaking 100,000 person public Lunar New Year banquet only 7km from the wet market where this outbreak originated.

 

Personally I have an optimistic attitude that this outbreak will be contained but it will not be due to the Chinese government's actions, but rather the international community.  Nothing new here, that's for sure.

Edited January 30, 2020 by WaveHunter