Why Is The Baht Not Dropping

[saengd]

4 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

If I could forecast the actual numbers I'd be rich already. Nah. What I do know is that tourism is going to remain dead for at least a few months (AKA 20% of GDP). Exports are already doing poorly due to the high baht. The condo market is saturated with most new units unsold and no buyers in sight. In my building 50% of units are unsold, 33% have been converted to hotel/airbnb - mainly Chinese daily renters, and only 17% owned/occupied. Without the Chinese the building is 83% empty. How long do you think this will last before owners and companies decide to cut their losses short?

 

And that's assuming they actually managed to contain the virus here in Thailand - if they failed then it will tear the country apart both economically and socially. We will know soon.

Sure tourism is 20% of GDP but do you really think that all of that will simply disappear, the flu virus problem last forever and there will be no recovery, I don't think so.

 

Exports are doing poorly you say....they are just now coming of a record high, falling from USD 23 billion in 3Q19 to USD19 bill. today, that rate of growth was never going to be sustainable and everyone who understand economics knows that.

 

Condo's, there's an oversupply, so what, that situation will correct itself over time.

 

I'm going to suggest you are over reacting and looking at an extreme worst case scenario. Thailand has low external debt and no social welfare system to speak of that is costly to support, unlike the West. Most of the population have their roots in rural agriculture, when the going gets tough they return to those roots. This year might be different because of the drought but we're only three months away from Songkran and the first rains, the glass is way more than half full and nowhere near half empty.

 

 

[CharlieH]

reported post removed.

[stament]

OP, it's dropping now and I anticipate further drops when the market opens tomorrow.

 

 

[stament]

23 hours ago, sscc said:

What I noticed in the case of  US$ 1000 conversion is net Baht received and deposited to Thai bank account via Transferwise is just marginally lower than exchanging US$ 1000 cash at TT yellow booth.  The difference in baht is very slim. 

 

If the amount gets higher, then transferwise is more favorable.  

How favourable? What is the TT yellow booth sorry for my ignorance, do you mean a money exchanger booth like superrich? 

[saengd]

Just now, stament said:

How favourable? What is the TT yellow booth sorry for my ignorance, do you mean a money exchanger booth like superrich? 

Read the thread, Transferwise is not always favorable, that's been proven and stated.

[metempsychotic]

On 2/6/2020 at 6:51 PM, TheAppletons said:

It has lost value vis-a-vis the USD, from approx 29.8/1 to approx 31/1 in the last month or so (31.08/1 as I type.)

 

That's over a 3% drop in just over a month.  

I got 31.15 at vasu yesterday. Seems some movement is occurring.

[stament]

Good times ahead

[Chivas]

22 hours ago, stament said:

OP, it's dropping now and I anticipate further drops when the market opens tomorrow.

 

 

Yes and it has a further gradual weakening currently 31.38 just before 08.00 Monday Thai time

 

 

[saengd]

On 2/7/2020 at 7:44 AM, saengd said:

Chinese citizens overseas are restricted to taking USD 50k per person out of the country each year, it's a serious restriction that hinders many who have several young children in international schools in Thailand.

A couple of posters seem to think this isn't true so a few points:

 

Just because some wealthy people are able to get their money out of China doesn't mean that everyone can, the fact is most middle class Chinese can't. We've heard from Chinese friends and neighbors who have kids in the International School here that this is a real problem for them, USD 50k poer year is the max. The rich might be able to pay a government official to look the other way, the less well off can't afford that. Just as it's difficult sometimes for farangs to take their money out of Thailand, the Chinese have a similar problem, in both cases it's the banks refusal to transfer the money that's the problem. In China however it goes one step further where the banks report large withdrawals to government and if the account holder leaves the country and returns but doesn't have that money, they are prosecuted.

[stament]

On 2/6/2020 at 6:05 PM, madmen said:

Zzzzz a month of Chinese flu and the baht should collapse. 

Try looking at foreign reserves 

Ain't going nowhere 

Started to weaken quite a bit today. Let the good times roll. ????

[stament]

WHOA 31.5 today....... Nice...