Majority of people want facts on new coronavirus, removal of fake news: poll

[WaveHunter]

On 2/9/2020 at 11:46 AM, FarFlungFalang said:

During my backpacking days I quickly learned not to trust anybody who said "trust me".

The same can be said for authorities when they make announcements to the public that "there is no reason to panic; everything is under control"

 

As soon as they start doing that is when most intelligent people should become very concerned.

 

Edited February 10, 2020 by WaveHunter

[FarFlungFalang]

41 minutes ago, ExpatLife said:

While the SARS outbreak was ongoing, WHO had it pinned at 4%, after all was said and done it was revealed to be 9.4%. The problem is, especially with his virus, that the symptoms take a long time to become apparent, and also the symptoms are deadly many days after they show, as pneumonia takes a while to kill. 
It's often wise to look at recoveries compared to deaths, or rather in this current situation compare deaths today to infections 10 or so days ago. 
This website has a bucket load of information and statistics 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Another interesting data sample to look at is CFR:
 

CFR = deaths at day.x / cases at day.x-{T}
(where T = average time period from case confirmation to death)

This would constitute a fair attempt to use values for cases and deaths belonging to the same group of patients.

One issue can be that of determining whether there is enough data to estimate T with any precision, but it is certainly not T = 0 (what is implicitly used when applying the formula current deaths / current cases to determine CFR during an ongoing outbreak). 

Let's take, for example, the data at the end of February 8, 2020: 813 deaths (cumulative total) and 37,552 cases (cumulative total) worldwide. 

If we use the flawed formula (deaths / cases) we get:

813 / 37,552 = 2.2% CFR (flawed formula).

Instead, even with a conservative estimate of T = 7 days as the average period from case confirmation to death, we would correct the above formula by using February 1 cumulative cases, which were 14,381, in the denominator:

Feb. 8 deaths / Feb. 1 cases = 813 / 14,381 = 5.7% CFR (correct formula, and estimating T=7).

 

Does this formula take into consideration the number of unreported cases of the virus or is it too ignoring this important statistic to make the figures seem more sever than they are?

[ExpatLife]

12 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Does this formula take into consideration the number of unreported cases of the virus or is it too ignoring this important statistic to make the figures seem more sever than they are?

No it does not, that would bring the mortality rate down somewhat. However, in China there was many reports of people dying in their homes. I heard a statement from one of the emergency workers there who answered calls for the emergency hotline, where people were crying down the phone saying 'I don't want to die' but they literally could not come and collect them because they were understaffed. Those dead in their homes could have simply had pneumonia or the virus, but they get sent off to the crematoriums and are not counted. So it's very difficult to estimate a mortality rate for multiple reasons. I personally think it's a little higher than 2% and probably somewhere between 5-8% .. but that's just me guessing based on everything at the moment 

Edited February 10, 2020 by ExpatLife

[WaveHunter]

13 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Does this formula take into consideration the number of unreported cases of the virus or is it too ignoring this important statistic to make the figures seem more sever than they are?

For the reason you question, Confirmed Fatality Rate (CFR) can not be determined until after the outbreak has peaked.  Because it is invalid at this stage of the outbreak, it serves no useful purpose.

 

Mortality Growth however is a valid indicator, and in the case of n-CoV paints a very scary trend, especially when comparing it with similar viruses:

 

30-Day

 

180 Days

from https://www.2019ncov.report/

Edited February 10, 2020 by WaveHunter

[FarFlungFalang]

22 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

The same can be said for authorities when they make announcements to the public that "there is no reason to panic; everything is under control"

 

As soon as they start doing that is when most intelligent people should become very concerned.

 

I agree whole heartedly and my quote above goes triple those "authorities" which to me are a bunch of self important clowns trying to tell me what is best for me,geez please don't get me started on "authorities".

As for the claims I'm trying to make this outbreak seem less serious than it is this is not the case,I agree that the burden it will place on the health systems of the world could be enormous as is the case in Wuhan.

My only argument is that about trying to calculated a fatality rate that truly reflects the actual fatality rate.Saying the fatality rate is 2.1% without taking into account the unreported infections serves only to worry/scare people unnecessarily.If you look at what the medical establishments view on the death rate you'll see they say the same thing as in the example below.

 

https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203

 

At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude.

[WaveHunter]

1 minute ago, FarFlungFalang said:

...At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude....

See my post right above yours.  I think I was writing it right before you posted this

[Selatan]

Here's what can happen if total freedom of speech (including the right to spread fake news) is allowed. This photo is from Hong Kong:

[rabas]

12 minutes ago, Selatan said:

Here's what can happen if total freedom of speech (including the right to spread fake news) is allowed. This photo is from Hong Kong:

No. this is what happens when people cannot trust the authorities.

In other words, when the authorities start lying.

 

 

 

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, Selatan said:

Here's what can happen if total freedom of speech (including the right to spread fake news) is allowed. This photo is from Hong Kong:

This is what happens when you take a photo of a shopping trolley near some empty shelves!Make of what you will,but I will take it as a photo of a shopping trolley near some empty shelves nothing more nothing less.By the way where does it say this photo is from Hong Kong?Apart from you posting that it is.

Edited February 10, 2020 by FarFlungFalang

[White Christmas13]

On 2/9/2020 at 3:16 PM, WaveHunter said:

Check out social media videos trickling out of China right now and you'll see that is exactly where they have been put. 

 

Even worse are the temporary hospitals: 

Workers prepare the Wuhan International Conference and Exhibition Center to serve as a temporary hospital for new coronavirus patients in Wuhan, China, on Feb. 4

 

Would you want to find yourself in one of these?  It sure does not look like a place where you will receive proper ICU care or be isolated from other infected patients to me.

Add this

 

 

[WaveHunter]

1 hour ago, Selatan said:

Here's what can happen if total freedom of speech (including the right to spread fake news) is allowed. This photo is from Hong Kong:

If this is your attempt at photojournalism, can I offer some advice?  Don't give up your day job.  Nothing personal, just saying...

[Salerno]

6 hours ago, Expat Brad said:

OMG!!! The Coronavirus was not made in bloody China. It is not a new virus either. It was creayed in a Laboratory that was NOT in China. Search your self under US Patents!!!

I did search but, FB will not allow it to be posted!!!

OMG!!! comprehension failure (the guy you where responding to was talking about media coverage of the virus not the virus itself: "Al thai propaganda relating to the virus is made in china.") and you even managed to throw in a misinformed conspiracy theory too  

Edited February 10, 2020 by Salerno

[Selatan]

12 hours ago, rabas said:

No. this is what happens when people cannot trust the authorities.

In other words, when the authorities start lying.

 

 

 

When people couldn't trust the authorities doesn't mean the authorities are lying. They rather believe in rumours and fake news. The same mad rush behaviour is happening in Singapore. 

S’poreans Are Wiping Out Basic Supplies From Supermarkets In Panic After DORSCON Orange Alert

It's easy to see how people are believing in rumours and fake news - the Singaporeans rushed to stock up on toilet paper, just like what the Hongkongers initially did. After the Hongkongers started stocking up food, the SIngaporeans followed suit.

[Selatan]

Talkin’ S**t: False toilet paper shortage rumors see stores’ stocks wiped out

Even Singaporeans too went on toilet paper buying spree and many have even crossed over to Malaysia to stock up on all kinds of stuffs, prompting Malaysians to sarcastically question if we should ban Singaporeans from crossing over to stop the run on our supermarkets.