THB exchange from Euros trend?

[notrub]

I know, I know...  This is a crystal ball question but...   i want to put 1M THB in a fixed account for my annual visa 'proof of wealth' requirement.  (Not that 1M THB is very much in the scheme of things these days).  Currently I have some Euros in a foreign currency account with BKK bank and they pay me no interest on it (I may even be charged a fee). 

 

Any comments on where the THB is going now that the UK has settled down and Trump has not yet started WWIII?

 

Thanks in advance for any Thoughts.

[Surelynot]

First mistake "now the UK has settled down". The reason the Thai baht remains so strong against the euro and GBP is due to Johnson's bellicose attitude and threats to leave with an Australian FTA, meaning no deal. I don't see any significant change in exchange rates unless there is a major change in Thailand's fortunes and we see something like the 1997 collapse. 

[notrub]

Dear Surelynot,  Show a little respect when referring to King Blubbo and his cabinet of clowns please.  They hold the fate of many in their tiny little minds...

[saengd]

The OP can put his 1 million into a fixed deposit account and he'll get somewhere around 1.3% interest but he can always withdraw the funds at any time, with loss of most of the interest so that's a pretty flexible bet in my book. (note: fixed deposits in Thailand must be capable of being encashed at any time, per BOT regs.)

 

As for exchange rates, there are three components to consider:

 

USD - is getting close to fair value, it's now about 99% on the Dollar Index, neither under nor over valued.

GBP - will struggle until there is something definitive regarding trade agreements, expect another year of unceratinty.

THB - will be under pressure from, in this order, the drought (which will impact agriculture and exports), falling exports (because of supply chain disruptions in China re. the virus) and an overly strong Baht. Despite those things the Baht remains strong, expect some reduction in value but not much, whatever is lost today will be clawed back tomorrow. 

 

Yes, I'd do the 1 mill. for 12 months, if things change too much you can always cash in and you've not lost much at all. In fact that's what I've done, I have seven fixed deposits where maturity dates are spread over the year (note: it's better to have four fixes at 250k each than 1 fix at million), try and stagger the maturity dates so if you need money you can en-cash a small one rather than lose everything.

 

 

 

[tomazbodner]

The guarantee on the payouts in case of banks collapsing is dropping from 10 million baht until mid last year to 5 million now, to 1 million sometime this year. So if bank does collapse, anything over 1 million will disappear into thin air.

 

Maybe something worth thinking of.