SuperTed Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 7 hours ago, geriatrickid said: Countries who have new infections have done their mapping and my understanding is that enough link back to Thailand, such that there is legitimate concern. Keep in mind that Thailand is a transit hub and people need not have stayed in Thailand The other issue is that Covid 19 is very infectious, more infectious than influenza, or the common cold. The 3% mortality rate must be taken within the context that far more people will be infected so it is indeed a killer because the disease burden is so heavy. The panic is understandable because too many governments were not truthful. The lack of honesty was due to the fact that there are no effective treatments and no vaccine. A population that has no hope becomes fearful and where there is fear, there is stupidity. That's why some governments were hesitant to be honest. It's the people who will have severe complications that will bring the health care systems to the brink of collapse. If the infections spread we will see the rationing of health care. We may very well see the elderly or those with immune suppressed systems allowed to die because they are refused treatment. To be blunt, if it gets bad, folks with diabetes, or cancer may be neglected or denied care as it would ne needed for otherwise "healthy" people. TVF's heavy smokers should consider stopping smoking now as smokers will be one of the high risk population groups. The Russians do care. Keep in mind that they closed their border with China. it's humidity that keeps the virus alive. Don't get confident because places like the humid and warm BKK airport are an ideal place for a respiratory virus. You are wrong (perhaps purposefully?) about your last point. ALL published work on the Virus which addresses the issue indicates that it does not do well in sunlight, heat and humidity. On the contrary, it requires hard surfaces and air con/cold to last for a long time. (How long it can last is still a big question.) Remember a lot is already known about the Virus because of its similarity to SARS. This explains why the virus was so grimly successful on the Diamond Princess, and spread in Sing (where people do not smoke and live in 24/7 aircon) but not TH (where men smoke, but only a very small percentage of the population lives in 24/7 aircon.) I don't think there is any point in commenting on the risk profile of BKK airport. Any airport with high traffic volume is a risk. As is any air conditioned and crowded bus, train, plane or boat. Furthermore, for your first point above, saying other countries have pointed to TH as a source of the Virus in doing their infection mapping. Please provide your information source. Your statement that the Virus is more infectious than influenza or the common cold is wholly irresponsible, given R0 varies greatly based on environment, human behavior and preventative measures. This is why countries are and should close borders, schools and offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post dutchweller Posted February 25, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted February 25, 2020 Was Just at Don Mung it was so quiet!!! The flight I was on only had 25-30 passengers... Dont worry TOT will come up with a promotion to save the day...oh and some made up numbers about how well they are doing... 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrules Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 3 hours ago, SpanishExpat said: They won`t cancel their services to Thailand 99,9% until there would be an explosion in infection cases like South Korea/ Italy. Kuwait Airways (and also Saudia) are extremely conservative compared to Emirates, Qatar, Etihad and Gulf Air. Kuwait airline already cancelled the flights, link : https://centreforaviation.com/news/kuwait-airways-suspends-services-to-italy-and-thailand-due-to-coronavirus-outbreak-978522 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeyScars Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 (edited) A HOTEL in the tourist hotspot of Tenerife has been put on lockdown after an Italian man tested positive for coronavirus. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51627597 This is not good...Canary Island is right next to the African continent... Also one in Sicily.... https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/international/888736-update-3-italy-reports-coronavirus-case-in-sicily-first-south-of-rome Edited February 25, 2020 by MikeyScars 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperTed Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 8 hours ago, Ventenio said: North Korea: ZERO reported deaths. Paradise. To fall I'll to a foreign virus would be an insult to the PRK and it's glorious leader; the lead remedy gets them before the virus can. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangkok Barry Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 29 minutes ago, Jumbo1968 said: I agree but the staff from the Emirates or not will be staying in Dubai after there trips from various parts of globe where there is coronavirus. Its a bit hypocritical to ban their own citizens from travelling when the Crew could be bringing coronavirus to the UAE as we know aircraft use a recycling ac system. On that basis, all flights should be banned worldwide. As we have been told, someone can carry the virus for 14 days without it showing, and that is a lot of people on a lot of flights to a lot of countries who could be infected and be spreading it. With only an incredibly small number out of 6.4 billion outside of China affected though, a blanket flight ban isn't going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IamNoone88 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Simply put, other Govt's believe the official infection numbers are likely fraudulent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperTed Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, MikeyScars said: A HOTEL in the tourist hotspot of Tenerife has been put on lockdown after an Italian man tested positive for coronavirus. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51627597 This is not good...Canary Island is right next to African continent... Also one in Sicily.... https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/international/888736-update-3-italy-reports-coronavirus-case-in-sicily-first-south-of-rome This will be a good test of how the virus functions in a warm climate. I would turn off the aircon, open the windows and only eat take out (not room service) if I was in that hotel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Lee bamber Posted February 25, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted February 25, 2020 It's absolutely ridiculous that Chinese nationals can still enter Thailand. According to a letter in the Bangkok Post there were no checks on a Thai national when he returned to Suvarnabhumi recently and he observed only 50%of airport staff were wearing face masks. This country needs to grow up and for once act responsibly for all our sakes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperTed Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 21 minutes ago, KhaoYai said: I would agree. I think a lot of countries are gobsmacked that Thailand has not banned Chinese citizens. I was too, until I realized that all but the most powerful Chinese were on lock-down from international travel for the last five weeks. TH welcoming them is just for goodwill and face. The Chinese who can afford to stay in TH are going to start to be an interesting problem for TH immigration 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperTed Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Last thought - the WHO appears beholden to PRC. They should have published guidelines a month ago on screening and testing air, boat, train and bus workers. Where are the guidelines? An ill server is the greatest transmission threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevenl Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 37 minutes ago, terryofcrete said: The cheapest flight from Dublin to BBK is Aeroflot and the duration is as good as Emirates, Qatar or Etihad... the only problem is Aeroflot ... better than they used to be but still so lacking in comfort and other areas .. Used to travel to Moscow to see family posted there and I know. Still it’s there as an option if I need a cheapie Charlie... I think aeroflot is ok, the stopover airport though is awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 8 hours ago, Canuck1966 said: Going to be lots of overstay issues kicking in soon, if these bans continue! Dumb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post WaveHunter Posted February 25, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted February 25, 2020 (edited) 35 minutes ago, SuperTed said: You are wrong (perhaps purposefully?) about your last point. ALL published work on the Virus which addresses the issue indicates that it does not do well in sunlight, heat and humidity. On the contrary, it requires hard surfaces and air con/cold to last for a long time. (How long it can last is still a big question.) Remember a lot is already known about the Virus because of its similarity to SARS. This explains why the virus was so grimly successful on the Diamond Princess, and spread in Sing (where people do not smoke and live in 24/7 aircon) but not TH (where men smoke, but only a very small percentage of the population lives in 24/7 aircon.) I don't think there is any point in commenting on the risk profile of BKK airport. Any airport with high traffic volume is a risk. As is any air conditioned and crowded bus, train, plane or boat. Furthermore, for your first point above, saying other countries have pointed to TH as a source of the Virus in doing their infection mapping. Please provide your information source. Your statement that the Virus is more infectious than influenza or the common cold is wholly irresponsible, given R0 varies greatly based on environment, human behavior and preventative measures. This is why countries are and should close borders, schools and offices. Both of you guys have made some real "iffy" comments I'm sorry to point out. First off, very little is really known about the COVID-19 virus at this point. Nothing is really known about whether it thrives better in cold or warm environment. Same is true for how it reacts outside of the body, and while there are some similarities with the SARS virus, COVID is a brand new coronavirus and you can't really say whether it reacts the same as SARS or not in this regard. Some rough studies have suggested longer active time outside of the body than a few hours but nothing conclusive. Smoking has not been definitely been shown to have an effect one way or another on getting the virus; only some statistical suggestions but from from being conclusive. I don't think it is so irresponsible to say the COVID is more infectious than Influenza. It actually could be much more infectious if some of the R0 studies that have been conducted lately prove to be correct. The Basic Reproductive Number (R0) for Influenza (the 1918 pandemic strain) was 2.0 - 3.0 (median 1.8). The median R0 for seasonal flu is 1.28 For Covid-19, it is not really well understood yet but most trusted estimates place the R0 between 2-3. However, some studies indicate it could be as high as 6.6. I get a lot of flack everytime I say this about the R0 possibly being that high, so here are the sources for that assertion: Li, Qun and Guan, Xuhua and Wu, Peng and Wang, Xiaoye and Zhou, Lei and Tong, Yeqing and Ren, Ruiqi and Leung, Kathy S M and Lau, Eric H Y and Wong, Jessica Y and Xing, Xuesen and Xiang, Nijuan and Wu, Yang and Li, Chao and Chen, Qi and Li, Dan and Liu, Tian and Zhao, Jing and Li, Man and Tu, Wenxiao and Chen, Chuding and Jin, Lianmei and Yang, Rui and Wang, Qi and Zhou, Suhua and Wang, Rui and Liu, Hui and Luo, Yingbo and Liu, Yuan and Shao, Ge and Li, Huan and Tao, Zhongfa and Yang, Yang and Deng, Zhiqiang and Liu, Boxi and Ma, Zhitao and Zhang, Yanping and Shi, Guoqing and Lam, Tommy T Y and Wu, Joseph T K and Gao, George F and Cowling, Benjamin J and Yang, Bo and Leung, Gabriel M and Feng, Zijian (2020). "Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia". N Engl J Med. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2001316. PMID 31995857 ^ Riou, Julien and Althaus, Christian L. (2020). "Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020". Eurosurveillance. 25 (4). doi:10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154. PMID 32019669. ^ "The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated". doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000058. The point really should be that COVID-19 is a highly dangerous and infectious pathogen by any benchmark, especially when you consider that it can be spread by asymptomatic people, many of which don't even realize they are infected. What has happened on the Diamond Prince should make that very clear. Again, this assertion that it can spread from asymptomatic people still seem controversial, but seriously, look at what's happening on the cruise ship (which has been described as a "floating petri dish of infection"), what is happening in South Korea, Japan, Iran, and of course, China. It would be impossible to acknowledge the numbers without it being shed by asymptomatic people. Anyway, I think it's safe to say this virus is dangerous without doubt. All the details of how and why are just going to take time to really understand. Edited February 25, 2020 by WaveHunter 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post SuperTed Posted February 25, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted February 25, 2020 (edited) Ok, final last thought - if TH was faking Virus statistics, TVF members would have pointed it out a month ago. Residing in pubs, smoking, ill health to begin with, extensive contact with sex workers, poor personal hygiene. TVF members are a high risk group for infection and transmission of any virus. None of you would stay quiet in these forums if one of your mates was desperately passing in hospital from the Virus and TH government was saying he just had a bad cold. The word would get out. Secrets are hard to keep without stacking up a pile of corpses. Edited February 25, 2020 by SuperTed 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrules Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 16 minutes ago, SuperTed said: This will be a good test of how the virus functions in a warm climate. I would turn off the aircon, open the windows and only eat take out (not room service) if I was in that hotel. You wouldn't need A/C anyway, it's maxxing out at 25 C each day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post CGW Posted February 25, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 minute ago, SuperTed said: Residing in pubs, smoking, ill health to begin with, extensive contact with sex workers, poor personal hygiene. TVF members are a high risk group to begin with. Please! don't paint us all with the same brush! - I don't smoke ???? 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suddenplans Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 USA has as many cases as Thailand so why not ban flights to there? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post runamok27 Posted February 25, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted February 25, 2020 8 hours ago, geriatrickid said: it's humidity that keeps the virus alive. Don't get confident because places like the humid and warm BKK airport are an ideal place for a respiratory virus. That is actually incorrect. Even moderate humidity greatly lowers flu transmission. https://www.livescience.com/27533-flu-transmission-humidity.html 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaveHunter Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Suddenplans said: USA has as many cases as Thailand so why not ban flights to there? The best explanation I've read on this thread is from a smart poster (I forget who it was, sorry) who suggested that Thailand, specifically Bangkok is a travel hub for a lot of Chinese travelers. Even if they are not spending time in-country (which of course many actually are) their mere presence in the airports make the possibility of passing the virus on to others significantly higher; perhaps so much higher (in the eyes of the UAE) that the increased risk warrants the ban. So, not at all the same thing as in the US. Who knows if this is the real reason, but it's the one that makes the most sense to me without actually knowing the facts, which seem impossible to get from any reliable source on the net at this point Edited February 25, 2020 by WaveHunter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post SiSePuede419 Posted February 25, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted February 25, 2020 9 hours ago, geriatrickid said: it's humidity that keeps the virus alive. Wuhan is quite cold in the winter, which means drier. Iran is also dry. Doesn't check out. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post DannyCarlton Posted February 25, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted February 25, 2020 26 minutes ago, SuperTed said: Ok, final last thought - if TH was faking Virus statistics, TVF members would have pointed it out a month ago. Residing in pubs, smoking, ill health to begin with, extensive contact with sex workers, poor personal hygiene. TVF members are a high risk group for infection and transmission of any virus. None of you would stay quiet in these forums if one of your mates was desperately passing in hospital from the Virus and TH government was saying he just had a bad cold. The word would get out. Secrets are hard to keep without stacking up a pile of corpses. And very few of us fit your description of a TVF member. How many have you met? Even my "mates" don't fit your description. Maybe you do? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DannyCarlton Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, SiSePuede419 said: Wuhan is quite cold in the winter, which means drier. Iran is also dry. Doesn't check out. Was watching a British expert on the news today. Debunked the idea that the virus doesn't survive in hot conditions. According to her the only coorlation would be the lifestyle of those living in hot countries. Nothing to do with the survivability of the virus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo1968 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 If the UAE were really concerned about the coronavirus they would be stopping all flights entering or leaving the country. They have said there citizens shouldn’t travel but apparently the staff on Emirates flights don’t come into the equation and they are the ones who could transmit coronavirus. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pijo1234 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Less tourists, less chances for coronavirus to spread more here. 35 infected is enough. Good news, for me (and you). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkshire Tea Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Jumbo1968 said: If the UAE were really concerned about the coronavirus they would be stopping all flights entering or leaving the country. They have said there citizens shouldn’t travel but apparently the staff on Emirates flights don’t come into the equation and they are the ones who could transmit coronavirus. Like here, $$$ is the priority. Can you imagine the knock on effect of Emirates, Ethihad et al cancelling flights to Asia? Edited February 25, 2020 by Yorkshire Tea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lensta Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 9 hours ago, Vacuum said: Meanwhile; Thai officials let all Chinese tourist enter Thailand with open arms... I am guessing that this is the reason some countries are putting the travel bans in place. By letting the Chinese in, it is increasing the risk of catching this virus for everyone in Thailand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fraggleRock Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 7 hours ago, Canuck1966 said: Two new cases of #COVID2019 have been reported in Thailand on Tuesday. Both of them are Thai nationals. One is a housewife who has no recent history of travel abroad. The other is a driver for foreign tourists. Bang there you go, its the white mans disease... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amdy2206 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Finally a sensible government who recognises the problems that could be caused by travelling here. Well done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kkith Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 9 hours ago, brewsterbudgen said: So does this mean the regular Emirates and Etihad flights between LHR and BKK, via UAE are suspended? Not yet, I just landed at 17:23 Feb 25,2020. My route was LHR->AUH->BKK with Etihad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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