Stormy financial weather. So what?

[JustAnotherHun]

On 3/13/2020 at 10:44 PM, mshs said:

 

The S&P 500 is higher today than it was on the 3rd January 2019.

Funny analysis.

On 03. January 2019 the S&P was near the low after a meltdown from 2900 in mid 2018.

If you bought the S&P at that moment - and who ever gets the best buying point? - you have today a minimal win.

If you bought somewhen in 2018 you are at best at your buying price or lower

If you bought in February 2019 or later you lost massivly according to today.

[URMySunshine]

Be under no illusion an atom bomb has blown up in the heart of the interconnected world financial systems. We will look back on the decades leading up to this event horizon with wistful nostalgia, The world now has utterly and for probably the rest of ours lives totally changed. We are entering an investment ice age in which only the bravest or most foolhardy will want to play. 

 

In other parts of the world, including the United States, calls are growing for policymakers to offer similar state support to the fragile corporate sector. No matter what the policymakers do, the outcome is now up to the coronavirus, and how soon its spread starts to slow.

The longer the coronavirus continues to spread at its current pace, the more likely it is that zombies begin to die, further depressing the markets — and increasing the risk of wider financial contagion.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/opinion/coronavirus-economy-debt.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

Edited March 16, 2020 by URMySunshine

[DaRoadrunner]

2 hours ago, Hank Gunn said:

He doesn't gain or lose anything until he sells, which is what you seem to be getting confuse about. Again, he didn't buy Delta to try to sell it at a profit next month. He saw it as a good value and may even buy more to dollar-cost average down.

Which is exactly what I do, but recent events are still painful, even though it is a paper loss, I still own the same amount of shares and they will recover. just wish my crystal ball had seen the drop coming.

 

He invests for the long term, but at 89 Buffett isn't going to live much longer, so why bother? I guess he is addicted to making more and more, but he can't spend it when he's dead.

[mshs]

5 hours ago, JustAnotherHun said:

Funny analysis.

On 03. January 2019 the S&P was near the low after a meltdown from 2900 in mid 2018.

If you bought the S&P at that moment - and who ever gets the best buying point? - you have today a minimal win.

If you bought somewhen in 2018 you are at best at your buying price or lower

If you bought in February 2019 or later you lost massivly according to today.

The S&P 500 is higher today than it was on the 3rd January 2019

was in response to

"Markets" have erased the gains of the last 3 years within a month.

 

Analyze that.

 

 

 

 

[mshs]

Buffett's BRK-A has gained 367% since March 2009 (from $78,000 to $268,000 close of business today).

 

S&P 500 has gained 340% from ~700 (March 2009) to 2386 today.  Plus dividends ~2% p.a. on average.

With dividends reinvested, S&P500 matches BRK-A.

 

S&P 500 yield today is ~2.44% highest since July 2009 

 

 

[soalbundy]

The only danger is panic, there is more of that about than covid,

the friking world is going to end !!! do me a favour and calm down.

[Lacessit]

10 hours ago, swissie said:

I think so too. Just imagine: A miniature country, having managed to stay out of major trouble for the last 700 years. A thrifty bunch of workaholics, having achieved one of the highest living-standarts in the world. Having no natural resources that can be sold internationally. All just by hard work, innovation and discipline.

Indeed, a strange bunch of weirdoes.

The Swiss have done very well out of laundering cash for a lot of people and entities, e.g the Nazis. It's not all virtuous.

Off topic, I understand there is a firearm in every Swiss household as part of defense capability. Apparently the Wehrmacht persuaded Hitler invading Switzerland was a bridge too far for them, even at the zenith of Nazi power.

What puzzles me is Switzerland AFAIK has never had the mass shootings so endemic in the USA.

[soalbundy]

Just now, Lacessit said:

The Swiss have done very well out of laundering cash for a lot of people and entities, e.g the Nazis. It's not all virtuous.

Off topic, I understand there is a firearm in every Swiss household as part of defense capability. Apparently the Wehrmacht persuaded Hitler invading Switzerland was a bridge too far for them, even at the zenith of Nazi power.

What puzzles me is Switzerland AFAIK has never had the mass shootings so endemic in the USA.

They aren't as neurotic.

[JustAnotherHun]

5 hours ago, mshs said:

The S&P 500 is higher today than it was on the 3rd January 2019

was in response to

"Markets" have erased the gains of the last 3 years within a month.

 

Analyze that.

 

 

 

 

With pleasure:

S&P in March 2017: ca. 2350

S&P yesterday: 2422

 

"The S&P is higher than on 3rd January 2019"

Correct, but misleading.

Anyone who bought the S&P between 2018 and now (and was holding it) lost on the paper, if he not bought exactly at the low you stated.

 

[mshs]

 

16 hours ago, JustAnotherHun said:

With pleasure:

S&P in March 2017: ca. 2350

S&P yesterday: 2422

 

"The S&P is higher than on 3rd January 2019"

Correct, but misleading.

Anyone who bought the S&P between 2018 and now (and was holding it) lost on the paper, if he not bought exactly at the low you stated.

 

Are you left-brained?

Look at the context! 

The doomer-gloomer claimed 3 years' gain were wiped out in a month.  My response was the S&P500 is higher than it was on the 1/3/19.

 

Estrogen this:

Is 1/3/19 3 years ago?

[mshs]

Year-to-date

Buffett - 20%

S&P 500 - 23%

DJIA -27%

 

 

[Susco]

On 3/16/2020 at 10:24 PM, Hank Gunn said:

I'm not trolling. It is you who've tried to denigrate my original post about people who are buying now are ones who think long-term. Those who try to time the market and are thinking of selling in the short term are at risk of losing their money during any type of market.

 

Also, it is you who brought up Warren Buffet and his investment in Delta, not I. As I said previously, he's been sitting on hundreds of millions of dollars in cash waiting for an opportunity. He obviously saw Delta as an opportunity. The old adage still applies: "Time in the market is more important than timing the market."

Just wanted give you a heads up on that opportunity Buffett saw 3 weeks ago, when he loaded up another 10 million shares of Delta airlines at $47, because you knew he was in it for the long term.

 

Last week he sold 13 million of Delta airlines shares, at $23. looks like a massive loss isn't it?

 

He also sold 2.4 million southwest airlines shares at a massive loss on the same day.And then we don;t even talk about his $10 BILLION investment in Occidental Petroleum which most likely will bankrupt in the coming weeks.

 

 

Edited April 4, 2020 by Susco

[timendres]

On 3/17/2020 at 1:02 AM, DaRoadrunner said:

He invests for the long term, but at 89 Buffett isn't going to live much longer, so why bother? I guess he is addicted to making more and more, but he can't spend it when he's dead.

It is called doing a job you enjoy. It may surprise you that some traders do not care about the absolute dollars they make. They enjoy the challenge of a good trade. One trader I worked with, who is worth over $100M, had a chart in his office showing, what he thought, was the best trade of his life. The profit was $3k. He loved to talk about that trade.

[lannarebirth]

Never mind.

Edited April 6, 2020 by lannarebirth

[lannarebirth]