TAT: Forecast for 2020 is 30 million tourists - down 24% on last year

[donnacha]

19 hours ago, eeworldwide said:

The tourist boom of the last 60 years is over for Thailand for the foreseeable future.

This.

They were already happily killing the golden goose of Western tourism. Now, if the Thai economy swings into a prolonged depression, some may question the wisdom of putting all their eggs in the Chinese basket. Even the Chinese won't be so keen if, through its devious manipulation of the infection stats, Thailand gains a reputation as an untrustworthy reservoir of disease.

The economic pain could be enough for the Thais to boot the current gang of crooks from power, but they will most likely be replaced by more puppets controlled by the same elites. This would probably mean that, in desperate pursuit of public support, they will keep leaning heavily towards the same ignorant nationalism that saw them turn against Western tourism in the first place.

There is a slim chance, however, that a democratically elected government could gain power. I would expect that to adopt the more pragmatic approach to Westerners we saw during the Thaksin years. If short-term tourism is as damaged as we expect, a smart, business savvy government could actually seed its future growth by taking better care of its more resilient long-term Western visitors, such as retirees. As more Westerners adopt remote working, the Thais could make it easier to do that here. As taxes rocket in the EU countries over the next decade, the Thais could position themselves to capture many new high-income residents.

To put it simply, the continuation of the mutually beneficial relationship between Westerners and Thailand really comes down to how successful the elites are in keeping a stranglehold on the country. The more democracy, the more demand there will be to encourage the characteristically Western types of spending that inject money directly into local economies all over the country, benefitting regular Thai families rather than just the elites who own the large hotels that the Chinese frequent.

Tragically for the Thai people, there is a 90% chance that the elites, the army, and the Chinese will continue to call the shots for decades to come. The golden age of Thailand as a top-tier tourist destination for Westerners is probably over. This virus is simply a final bullet to the head.


 

Edited March 19, 2020 by donnacha

[ParkerN]

On 3/18/2020 at 9:32 PM, Mulambana said:

Nobody really knows. Western countries are predicting it will be August before they could get it under control and then suffer a severe recession. The only hope is Indians and Chinese and if India's current control measure works, they may start trickling from September.

No evidence for this at all, but I note from Thai TV reports that Spain is now in trouble with COVID-19. Spain is a hot country, and because of this I seriously doubt those sincere people including Thailand's own Anutin, who say that the epidemic will dissipate with the arrival of hot weather. Thailand is pretty hot right now (unseasonably so) and I don't see any evidence of dissipation at all, the reverse in fact

 

I think it's going to take a bit longer than July/August for this pandemic to wane, and I fully expect for some unwelcome revelations about its origin to begin circulating.

 

 

 

[ParkerN]

9 hours ago, donnacha said:

This.

They were already happily killing the golden goose of Western tourism. Now, if the Thai economy swings into a prolonged depression, some may question the wisdom of putting all their eggs in the Chinese basket. Even the Chinese won't be so keen if, through its devious manipulation of the infection stats, Thailand gains a reputation as an untrustworthy reservoir of disease.

The economic pain could be enough for the Thais to boot the current gang of crooks from power, but they will most likely be replaced by more puppets controlled by the same elites. This would probably mean that, in desperate pursuit of public support, they will keep leaning heavily towards the same ignorant nationalism that saw them turn against Western tourism in the first place.

There is a slim chance, however, that a democratically elected government could gain power. I would expect that to adopt the more pragmatic approach to Westerners we saw during the Thaksin years. If short-term tourism is as damaged as we expect, a smart, business savvy government could actually seed its future growth by taking better care of its more resilient long-term Western visitors, such as retirees. As more Westerners adopt remote working, the Thais could make it easier to do that here. As taxes rocket in the EU countries over the next decade, the Thais could position themselves to capture many new high-income residents.

To put it simply, the continuation of the mutually beneficial relationship between Westerners and Thailand really comes down to how successful the elites are in keeping a stranglehold on the country. The more democracy, the more demand there will be to encourage the characteristically Western types of spending that inject money directly into local economies all over the country, benefitting regular Thai families rather than just the elites who own the large hotels that the Chinese frequent.

Tragically for the Thai people, there is a 90% chance that the elites, the army, and the Chinese will continue to call the shots for decades to come. The golden age of Thailand as a top-tier tourist destination for Westerners is probably over. This virus is simply a final bullet to the head.


 

 

I really don't think I can argue with any of that, especially the bits about the Sino-Thai elites maintaining their current positions of privilege. More's the pity.

I think however there is another dimension which has not been properly accounted for. It is surely no secret that Donald Trump appears to be on the way out of the door. In this context I'm curious as to why he suddenly started referring repeatedly to ''the Chinese virus". It cannot surely miss anybody's attention that the present time is trying to talk up the COVID-19 virus into a national emergency. Call me a cynic but I see in this an attempt to ensure his own longevity as President. 

 

It would not surprise me at all, for Mr Trump to announce, or otherwise imply that China did in fact make itself responsible for the pandemic, perhaps by manufacturing it in a military facility.  Various conspiracy theories are already emerging along these lines, and as is typical of conspiracy theories, some are more bizarre than others.

 

Time will tell but it seems to me self-evident that among Trumps supporters is an unhealthy percentage of complete and manipulable weirdos. A sufficiently large row about this, emerging from the large group of weirdos that appears to be attracted to him could well start diplomatic problems between China and the USA and this may very well play to  the Trump agenda.

 

I guess we'll see. Interesting times

 

 

Edited March 20, 2020 by ParkerN

[donnacha]

6 hours ago, ParkerN said:

It is surely no secret that Donald Trump appears to be on the way out of the door.

It is generally agreed that this sort of black swan event, and major downswing in the markets, was the only thing that could have prevented a second Trump term. Even so, it is by no means a sure thing that Biden will manage to kick the ball into the open goal. He certainly has a good chance. The virus gives his handlers a good excuse to avoid the public events that would expose what appears to be incipient dementia, but he would still have to get through debates with Trump, who is most effective when his back is against the wall. Right now, I would say it is 50/50. If the Democrat candidate had been Sanders, Trump would have walked it.
 

 

6 hours ago, ParkerN said:

In this context I'm curious as to why he suddenly started referring repeatedly to ''the Chinese virus".

Trump is hitting back at the worrying recent trend of Chinese officials to suggest that the virus originated in America.
 

 

6 hours ago, ParkerN said:

It cannot surely miss anybody's attention that the present time is trying to talk up the COVID-19 virus into a national emergency.

It is global emergency. Surely you are aware that? Nobody is "talking up" anything. This is real.
 

 

6 hours ago, ParkerN said:

Call me a cynic but I see in this an attempt to ensure his own longevity as President. 

I'm pretty sure Trump did not orchestrate a pandemic, at a time of record employment and economic growth, in order to win an election.
 

 

6 hours ago, ParkerN said:

Time will tell but it seems to me self-evident that among Trumps supporters is an unhealthy percentage of complete and manipulable weirdos.

Attempting to turn an emergency of this magnitude into a political weapon will backfire. Not just you, but all the people playing this game. All the increasingly desperate attempts - Russia, Ukraine, now this pandemic - are actually helping to shore up support for Trump.

You sneer at conspiracy theories while presenting one of your own. Within the media and Democrat bubble, this stuff may feel convincing, but the public are not as dumb, weird or manipulable as you think. They see what you are doing. The impeachment actually helped Trump.

If the establishment want to retake the presidency, they need to start hiding their disdain for the American public. They need to stop pretending that Trump is Hitler, and that his supporters are deplorable morons, because although that feels good, it reveals too clearly that you consider yourselves to be superior to most Americans.

You took 2016 for granted, running one of the most unlikable and baggage-laden candidates in decades. Trump did not win that election, Hillary lost it. Despite all the hysteria, America did well under Trump but now, just months before the election, you have been handed the perfect storm, a completely unexpected chance to get him out in 2020 rather than having to wait for 2024. The only way the establishment can screw this up is if you continue to let "Trump derangement syndrome" overpower your common sense and you continue attacking the people you need to swing Democrat.

 

[Mung]

absolutely ridiculous press release. Who are they trying to fool, themselves? They've become a meme at this point 

[lemonjelly]

Is the TAT run by flat earthers or something? I’ve seen more credible estimates from local builders.

[30la]

... And the TAT continues with its dreams of greatness ... if you reach three million you will have to be happy ...

[lamyai3]

On 3/20/2020 at 3:17 PM, ParkerN said:

Spain is a hot country

Current temperature in Spain is 7° (around 6am) with a high of 14° forecast in the afternoon. Neither Spain, Italy or Iran (which sits on a plateau) are warm in March, and bear in mind case numbers we are seeing now will have taken some time to appear in the system and infection may have even occurred back in February. 

[ParkerN]

On 3/20/2020 at 11:36 PM, donnacha said:

It is generally agreed that this sort of black swan event, and major downswing in the markets, was the only thing that could have prevented a second Trump term. Even so, it is by no means a sure thing that Biden will manage to kick the ball into the open goal. He certainly has a good chance. The virus gives his handlers a good excuse to avoid the public events that would expose what appears to be incipient dementia, but he would still have to get through debates with Trump, who is most effective when his back is against the wall. Right now, I would say it is 50/50. If the Democrat candidate had been Sanders, Trump would have walked it.
 

 

Trump is hitting back at the worrying recent trend of Chinese officials to suggest that the virus originated in America.
 

 

It is global emergency. Surely you are aware that? Nobody is "talking up" anything. This is real.
 

 

I'm pretty sure Trump did not orchestrate a pandemic, at a time of record employment and economic growth, in order to win an election.
 

 

Attempting to turn an emergency of this magnitude into a political weapon will backfire. Not just you, but all the people playing this game. All the increasingly desperate attempts - Russia, Ukraine, now this pandemic - are actually helping to shore up support for Trump.

You sneer at conspiracy theories while presenting one of your own. Within the media and Democrat bubble, this stuff may feel convincing, but the public are not as dumb, weird or manipulable as you think. They see what you are doing. The impeachment actually helped Trump.

If the establishment want to retake the presidency, they need to start hiding their disdain for the American public. They need to stop pretending that Trump is Hitler, and that his supporters are deplorable morons, because although that feels good, it reveals too clearly that you consider yourselves to be superior to most Americans.

You took 2016 for granted, running one of the most unlikable and baggage-laden candidates in decades. Trump did not win that election, Hillary lost it. Despite all the hysteria, America did well under Trump but now, just months before the election, you have been handed the perfect storm, a completely unexpected chance to get him out in 2020 rather than having to wait for 2024. The only way the establishment can screw this up is if you continue to let "Trump derangement syndrome" overpower your common sense and you continue attacking the people you need to swing Democrat.

 

 

So many wrong conclusions, so little time... plus, I can't really be bothered to give more stuff for you to get wrong.

 

But... Have a great day anyway.

 

 

[donnacha]

15 hours ago, ParkerN said:

 

So many wrong conclusions, so little time... plus, I can't really be bothered to give more stuff for you to get wrong.

 

But... Have a great day anyway.

 

 

You're welcome.