Wuhan Covid Virus - no need to be scared - yet

[Mearsy]

Foodland Supermarket Sukhumvit Soi 5 

 

Edited March 22, 2020 by DaveTheRave

[edmun1388]

just statistic , let you all THINK>

[Logosone]

10 hours ago, britishjohn said:

one possibility may be that in Germany they have tested extensively. People can be tested if they show mild symptoms or had contact with an infected person. Therefore they pick up people of all ages. Whereas perhaps in Italy they are only testing those with severe symptoms, which tend to be old.

 

If that is true then Germany's fatality rate may be closer to the true rate. 

 

Why would they only test those with severe symptoms in Italy though? Maybe because Italians are more reluctant to come forward and be tested?

 

It would be good news if Germany's mortality rate is closer to the true rate. With 248730 (cases by ten multiple the UK chief medical advise suggested) and 94 deaths the death rate would be in the 0.3 % range.

 

 

[Logosone]

7 hours ago, gamb00ler said:

You compared Thailand's seasonal influenza experience with that of the West.  That is the comparison that makes no sense.   It is common knowledge that climate is a big factor in the seasonal influenza.  I must admit you're exceptional in not knowing.

 

There is no 'seasonal' influenza in Thailand, it is year-round, unlike in the West it is not seasonal. Maybe try and educate yourself first before you accuse others of not-knowing, you'd look less silly then. And btw, lots of academics have compared influenza in Thailand with influenza in the West, climate is not even a factor. Really, do some research,

Edited March 23, 2020 by Logosone

[Logosone]

4 hours ago, edmun1388 said:

just statistic , let you all THINK>

 

Yes, I'm sorry, but that death rate is completely inaccurate.

 

You are only looking at 'identified cases'. As the UK's chief medical adviser Sir Patrick Vallance has clarified, identified cases are only a fraction of the real cases which are estimated at ten to twenty times higher.

 

So here's what you do, you multiply the number of cases by ten and then take the death cases as a percentage.

 

That way you will get a lot more accurate number than the one you posted.

[pookondee]

To put it simply, the way this all started was just small numbers infected in certain locations.

And it was not uncommon to see those numbers double in one day. 

 

If the OP is quoting 3% of a population  infected and that number goes into the millions,

Well just imagine if that figure were all still going about everyday daily life as usual and infecting all and sundry?

 

By my logic that 3% could double every day, the same as it did in the start.

 

That probably goes towards explaining the panic and the extreme measures.

[Logosone]

43 minutes ago, pookondee said:

To put it simply, the way this all started was just small numbers infected in certain locations.

And it was not uncommon to see those numbers double in one day. 

 

If the OP is quoting 3% of a population  infected and that number goes into the millions,

Well just imagine if that figure were all still going about everyday daily life as usual and infecting all and sundry?

 

By my logic that 3% could double every day, the same as it did in the start.

 

That probably goes towards explaining the panic and the extreme measures.

 

Exactly, and there was a period of two months when we are all watching the Wuhan infections unfold. Our governments could have isolated their countries then. Even after several coronavirus outbreaks previously, with SARS, MERS, etc, they did nothing. 

 

The governments showed they were completely unable to isolate their countries when it still would have made a difference.  

 

Now, after they were unable to do so, they are asking every individual to do so and will threaten you with 25000 Euro fines and imprisonment if you don't.

 

You can't make it up.

 

As for the panic, it was the media, including social media, that induced the panic. The panic buying we're seeing is in larger part due to the media. Yesterday a major UK newspaper warned alocohol will be the new in demand item, and no doubt there will be panic buying of alcohol next.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Logosone

[Logosone]

The latest from the WHO:

 

Lockdowns will not do it. We need to identify the sick and carriers and isolate them.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/22/world/europe/22reuters-health-coronavirus-who-ryan.html

 

Thank you, WHO.

 

Boris, Angela, you're on top of this then?

[rabas]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Yes, I'm sorry, but that death rate is completely inaccurate.

 

You are only looking at 'identified cases'. As the UK's chief medical adviser Sir Patrick Vallance has clarified, identified cases are only a fraction of the real cases which are estimated at ten to twenty times higher.

 

So here's what you do, you multiply the number of cases by ten and then take the death cases as a percentage.

 

That way you will get a lot more accurate number than the one you posted.

It's also not accurate to say the closed case fatality rate is inaccurate because it does not count unknown or unclosed cases. Your assertion that there are 10X cases yet to be identified may be true.

 

However they cannot be counted in the denominator before these cases are closed. Assuming they die at the same rates, then the closed CFR remains unchanged. CFR will come down over time for different reasons. The best estimate I have seen from Stanford people is about 4%. But things may change due medications like Chloroquine or the virus may mutate further, which can go either way. Already, there is a mild subtype and more aggressive subtype.

 

But before responding, kindly read this recent ARS interview with Larry Brilliant, the epidemiologist who helped eradicate smallpox and is now the Chairman of the board of Ending Pandemics. He covers everything including masks.

 

"It means it's new. That there is no human being in the world that has immunity as a result of having had it before. That means it’s capable of infecting 7.8 billion of our brothers and sisters."

[HHTel]

Those same stats for China today:

 

China

Coronavirus Cases:

81,093

Deaths:

3,270

Recovered:

72,703

 

ACTIVE CASES

5,120

Currently Infected Patients

3,371 (66%)

in Mild Condition

1,749 (34%)

Serious or Critical

Show Graph

Jan 22Jan 27Feb 01Feb 06Feb 11Feb 16Feb 21Feb 26Mar 02Mar 07Mar 12Mar 17Mar 22050k100k

Show Statistics

CLOSED CASES

75,973

Cases which had an outcome:

72,703 (96%)

Recovered / Discharged

3,270 (4%)

Deaths

Show Graph

 

And now the USA:

 

United States

Coronavirus Cases:

35,060

Deaths:

457

Recovered:

178

 

ACTIVE CASES

34,425

Currently Infected Patients

33,630 (98%)

in Mild Condition

795 (2%)

Serious or Critical

Show Graph

Feb 15Feb 18Feb 21Feb 24Feb 27Mar 01Mar 04Mar 07Mar 10Mar 13Mar 16Mar 19Mar 22025k50k

Show Statistics

CLOSED CASES

635

Cases which had an outcome:

178 (28%)

Recovered / Discharged

457 (72%)

Deaths

Show Graph

 

Stats develop on a daily basis as more recover.

[AussieBob18]

14 hours ago, gamb00ler said:

You probably exist because in the long history of humans, some "expert" (AKA over-educated idiot) created/improved a tool or a process that allowed one of your ancestors to survive and reproduce instead of dying childless.

Over-educated idiots have only started occuring in recent decades. When I was a lad those with most intelligence went into A class then B then C and those with less 'potential' went into D and E and left school at 16 to become tradies/cleaners.  Now they are all put in classes together - teachers have to focus on the lowest common denominator - and the idiots get a degree. 

[AussieBob18]

13 hours ago, gamb00ler said:

So some of those draconian "over reactions" worked?  Good to know.

I never said some actions shouldn't be put in place - but the uncontrolled panic has resulted in over reactions and economic collapse.

[AussieBob18]

12 hours ago, gamb00ler said:

Most of those in power are >> 60. Perhaps that has influenced some of their decisions regarding COVID-19.

 

Regarding your comment on immunity....I was raised on a small farm and was of course exposed to several types of livestock and their attendant bacterial and perhaps viral biome.  Research has shown that such exposure gives one immunities that urban residents don't have.  I think I got the flu once in my life and only had vaccination in the last 8 years or so.

That is a very good point - they are all older - never thought of that - very likely correct.

 

There is a very strong correlation between immunity levels as an adult and exposure to animals and farming when young. 

 

As with you, I grew up in a 'rural'  part of the city - there were farms everywhere growing fruit and veges, and with cows and sheep and chickens and pigs, As kids we often with into and through those places - and we had chickens and dogs and cats and lizards and guinea pigs and mice and probably more. Same here - hardly ever get sick - had never been to a doctor or hospital until I busted by leg playing footy at 21/22. Just remembered - went to dr when very young to remove something I had put in my ear and couldnt get out - no idea why - still do stupid things  ????

 

[Dale75]

Yes, acquired/strengthened childhood immunity is a great thing. I also think I have it.

I know this is all just anecdotal/non-scientific but if it lifts spirits in this time of gloom, why not?

 

A few years ago (2005 actually) I was due to go to India for work so I turned up at my local UK GP for my shots (I'd been going there since birth).

Only to be told "You aren't registered here anymore."

"Why not?"

"Because you haven't been here for 27 years."

Edited March 23, 2020 by Dale75

[Logosone]

3 hours ago, rabas said:

Already, there is a mild subtype and more aggressive subtype.

 

But before responding, kindly read this recent ARS interview with Larry Brilliant, the epidemiologist who helped eradicate smallpox and is now the Chairman of the board of Ending Pandemics. He covers everything including masks.

 

"It means it's new. That there is no human being in the world that has immunity as a result of having had it before. That means it’s capable of infecting 7.8 billion of our brothers and sisters."

I am afraid the 'mild subtype and 'aggressive subtype' research from China has been thoroughly debunked:

 

 A paper published by Lu Jian of Peking University and colleagues on 3 March in the journal National Science Review analyzed 103 virus genomes and argued that they fell into one of two distinct types, named S and L, distinguished by two mutations. Because 70% of sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes belong to L, the newer type, the authors concluded that virus has evolved to become more aggressive and to spread faster.

But they lack evidence, Rambaut says. “What they’ve done is basically seen these two branches and said, ‘That one is bigger, [so that virus] must be more virulent or more transmissible,’” he says. However, just because a virus is exported and leads to a large outbreak elsewhere does not mean it is behaving differently: “One of these lineages is going to be bigger than the other just by chance.” Some researchers have called for the paper to be retracted. “The claims made in it are clearly unfounded and risk spreading dangerous misinformation at a crucial time in the outbreak,” four scientists at the University of Glasgow wrote in a response published on www.virological.org.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/mutations-can-reveal-how-coronavirus-moves-they-re-easy-overinterpret

 

Okay, I'll read that interview, but that sentence fills me with doubt because people have had and recovered from Covid19, so there should be immunity.

 

[Logosone]

Okay, Mr Brilliant got it.

 

 Unfortunately, it requires doing the proportionate number of tests that they did—they did well over a quarter of a million tests. In fact, by the time South Korea had done 200,000 tests, we had probably done less than 1,000.

 

Now that we've missed the opportunity for early testing, is it too late for testing to make a difference?

Absolutely not. Tests would make a measurable difference. We should be doing a stochastic process random probability sample of the country to find out where the hell the virus really is. Because we don't know. Maybe Mississippi is reporting no cases because it's not looking. How would they know? Zimbabwe reports zero cases because they don't have testing capability, not because they don't have the virus. We need something that looks like a home pregnancy test, that you can do at home.

 

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/the-doctor-who-helped-defeat-smallpox-explains-whats-coming/

 

Larry got it. BE LIKE LARRY!

[britishjohn]

12 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

Why would they only test those with severe symptoms in Italy though? Maybe because Italians are more reluctant to come forward and be tested?

 

It would be good news if Germany's mortality rate is closer to the true rate. With 248730 (cases by ten multiple the UK chief medical advise suggested) and 94 deaths the death rate would be in the 0.3 % range.

 

 

I'm not sure why they have tested less in Italy but I have been listening to some guy called Amesh Adalja from Johns Hopkins on a podcast with Sam Harris and he reckons the final fatality rate will be between 0.1% to 0.6%

 

 

 

 

[Logosone]

That rate would make sense. The news currently is that the Italians are saying it's levelling out a bit.

 

Germans saying the same.

[DrTuner]

10 hours ago, rabas said:

But before responding, kindly read this recent ARS interview with Larry Brilliant, the epidemiologist who helped eradicate smallpox and is now the Chairman of the board of Ending Pandemics. He covers everything including masks.

 

"It means it's new. That there is no human being in the world that has immunity as a result of having had it before. That means it’s capable of infecting 7.8 billion of our brothers and sisters."

I have my doubts about this. What about the people who survived the original SARS-CoV in 2003? In case there is a lifetime immunity, which is completely unknown, this one is quite close and they might have immunity. So I wouldn't be stating there's no human in the world. Some might even have some genetic fluke that makes them immune. We just don't know yet.

[gamb00ler]

11 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

Over-educated idiots have only started occuring in recent decades. When I was a lad those with most intelligence went into A class then B then C and those with less 'potential' went into D and E and left school at 16 to become tradies/cleaners.  Now they are all put in classes together - teachers have to focus on the lowest common denominator - and the idiots get a degree. 

My high school didn't offer any trades education so the separation was implemented by school rather than by class. I was in the only group/class that differed from the others.  That was because we wished to take 5 (vs 4) classes in one term.  We started an hour earlier than others.  Oh well at least I can still say "Je m'appelle gambooler" and count to 100.

 

I just don't appreciate those who dismiss expertise lightly.  I sometimes wish those who denigrate expertise would have to forego the benefits they enjoy because of "experts".

[Logosone]

10 hours ago, DrTuner said:

I have my doubts about this. What about the people who survived the original SARS-CoV in 2003? In case there is a lifetime immunity, which is completely unknown, this one is quite close and they might have immunity. So I wouldn't be stating there's no human in the world. Some might even have some genetic fluke that makes them immune. We just don't know yet.

Excellent point. We can also take heart from the fact that the UK Chief Medical Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance is on public record saying that expected immunity after people have been affected. If we have 3 million cases (ten times multiple) then  there are a large number of immune people.

 

 

[Logosone]

It's official, the heat slows transmission study finds:

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8143727/High-temperatures-humidity-significantly-slow-spread-coronavirus.html

[AussieBob18]

11 hours ago, gamb00ler said:

My high school didn't offer any trades education so the separation was implemented by school rather than by class. I was in the only group/class that differed from the others.  That was because we wished to take 5 (vs 4) classes in one term.  We started an hour earlier than others.  Oh well at least I can still say "Je m'appelle gambooler" and count to 100.

 

I just don't appreciate those who dismiss expertise lightly.  I sometimes wish those who denigrate expertise would have to forego the benefits they enjoy because of "experts".

When I was at High School there were distinct classes A to D - and being In A meant more work and less play/time off. But my parents encouraged/forced me to study and work - while some of my mates had a great time.  In the end I had changed most of my friends by the time I went to Uni.  Paid off later that is for sure.  Nowadays they are all like the 'C' classes - and the curiculum is set at the lowest common denominator.   What we got, parents now have to send kids to seperate schools. 

 

I hear you and also tend to agree - but I am a skeptic and naturally question what I think is not correct and doesnt add up.  If I am wrong I will step up and accept that - but I have never said not to take the precautions being advised - what I am saying it is not ebola and there is no reason for the massive panic that the Govts/Experts have unleased worldwide. And I have said that what has been done was done for the right reasons - but they didnt do it right.  Too late now and you cant put the genie back in the bottle (or pandora's box) - we now gotta all ride this out.  Take care and stay safe - by the mid/end April we should know either way.

 

 

[DrTuner]

9 hours ago, Logosone said:

It's official, the heat slows transmission study finds:

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8143727/High-temperatures-humidity-significantly-slow-spread-coronavirus.html

I had a gut feeling this would be the cause of the delay in the outbreak in Thailand. More specifically, the droplet based transmission would be slowed down by heat and humidity destroying the virus in the droplets. However, it just slowed it down by a couple of weeks and now the density of carriers is high enough for more direct transmission mode, which cares not about weather.

 

That's my best guess. It could be validated if Thailand does more genome mappings and uploads them to GISAID which Nextstrain uses as source. If I am right, Thailand's strain is a direct descendant of the Wuhan one and has been brewing for weeks.

[Logosone]

5 hours ago, DrTuner said:

I had a gut feeling this would be the cause of the delay in the outbreak in Thailand. More specifically, the droplet based transmission would be slowed down by heat and humidity destroying the virus in the droplets. However, it just slowed it down by a couple of weeks and now the density of carriers is high enough for more direct transmission mode, which cares not about weather.

 

That's my best guess. It could be validated if Thailand does more genome mappings and uploads them to GISAID which Nextstrain uses as source. If I am right, Thailand's strain is a direct descendant of the Wuhan one and has been brewing for weeks.

Yes, that's what all the experts are saying about droplets in heat.

 

I am equally concerned about the dark figure of real cases in Thailand, particularly in view of the fact that so many people have now left Bangkok and will be spreading Covid19 all across the country. Why Bangkok was not put in isolation earlier is hard to explain, same mistake as Wuhan.

 

The worst, Thailand is way to slow in producing test kits.

 

They've done good work in producing their version of a fast test kit, but the production is very slow.

 

So with a combination of increasing, massive case numbers and low numbers of test kits, little identifying and little isolation, herd immunity maybe the best option.

[Logosone]

Good morning fellow prisoners.

 

So Oxford university has done a study on how many people are infected in the UK and it could be as high as half the population already.

 

In the absence of government's ability to isolate their countries on time and the invidual's inability to self-isolate it looks like herd immunity could be the best outcome.

 

If so many people already have the disease and are immune to it, then the virus can't spread.

 

Wouldn't self-isolation then be completely the wrong thing to do?

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8148529/Coronavirus-infected-half-British-population-say-Oxford-University-experts.html

[AussieBob18]

5 hours ago, Logosone said:

Good morning fellow prisoners.

So Oxford university has done a study on how many people are infected in the UK and it could be as high as half the population already.

In the absence of government's ability to isolate their countries on time and the invidual's inability to self-isolate it looks like herd immunity could be the best outcome.

If so many people already have the disease and are immune to it, then the virus can't spread.

Wouldn't self-isolation then be completely the wrong thing to do?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8148529/Coronavirus-infected-half-British-population-say-Oxford-University-experts.html

Cant argue with that - what Germany and Korea have found is that the more people that are tested, then the number of infected increases significantly, but the total infected rate, and the mortality rate, go down significantly.

If the only ones being tested are sick and old and in bad shape, then the infection and mortality rates will be high = Italy.

It is too late to stop now - they are committed to imposing restrictions until one or both of to things happen:

1. The infection ates slows significantly/stops  2. The mortality rate across all people becomes like the seasonal flu.

For the last two days the WHO new infections are about 40K a day, and the deaths are 1700 a day.

It will be mid/end of next month before we know if things are getting better or worse.

[CraigInBangkok]

6 hours ago, Logosone said:

Good morning fellow prisoners.

 

So Oxford university has done a study on how many people are infected in the UK and it could be as high as half the population already.

 

In the absence of government's ability to isolate their countries on time and the invidual's inability to self-isolate it looks like herd immunity could be the best outcome.

 

If so many people already have the disease and are immune to it, then the virus can't spread.

 

Wouldn't self-isolation then be completely the wrong thing to do?

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8148529/Coronavirus-infected-half-British-population-say-Oxford-University-experts.html

The most worrying thing about this article is that it came from the daily mail who usually love to spread fear, panic, doom and gloom.

My expertise in this area (which is zero by the way) tells me that the mortality number are still really low and still nothing to panic about. I've been monitoring the charts (haha) and I predict(blind hope) that numbers will flatten out over the next couple of weeks and then go down. Lets all hope I am right!

Dr Craig signing off

[Logosone]

Well, it looks like either way we will have herd immunity.

 

The stark choice to be made is do we shut down whole countries in a mega-effort to delay the onset of peak infection, so that hospitals are not overwhelmed and can save the, mostly older, potential mortality candidates or do we think of the living, the children, the future generations, because the shutting down of whole countries will be an economic disaster.

 

The bailing out of millions of unemployed, the loss of income, taxation, increased cost for health services, all of that, the total cost can only be palmed off on future generations. Again. It can not be paid by those alive now.

 

Do the lives of those about to die, outweigh the millions of lives that will be affected by having to pay for the current measures for generations to come?

[CraigInBangkok]

47 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Well, it looks like either way we will have herd immunity.

 

The stark choice to be made is do we shut down whole countries in a mega-effort to delay the onset of peak infection, so that hospitals are not overwhelmed and can save the, mostly older, potential mortality candidates or do we think of the living, the children, the future generations, because the shutting down of whole countries will be an economic disaster.

 

The bailing out of millions of unemployed, the loss of income, taxation, increased cost for health services, all of that, the total cost can only be palmed off on future generations. Again. It can not be paid by those alive now.

 

Do the lives of those about to die, outweigh the millions of lives that will be affected by having to pay for the current measures for generations to come?

Not that its my choice to make but I would say we should just carry on as normal. Although I realise its a difficult choice for any government to make. Whichever way they choose lots of people won't be happy

 

EDIT : when I say normal ... obviously I mean with caution 

Edited March 25, 2020 by CraigInBangkok