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Wuhan Covid Virus - no need to be scared - yet


AussieBob18

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1 hour ago, Nanaplaza666 said:

I don't understand that some people on here still don't see the seriousness of this pandamic and think it's just another kind o flu . This sh.t is not over yet and there is no medicine or vaccination yet for the near future . + let's not forget the economical part of the story . How many businesses and people will this effect on economicly . It's a bit bigger then you optimists think . Hope it doesn't affect any of you or your families but it is happening and it's more serious then some posters on here think . But whe are in it to win it so hope everybody stays safe and healthy .

To be honest, those who keep saying its just a flu or how many die this or that way seem more worried to me.

 

 

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So every year millions of contagious 'wokesters' head to work just starting or finishing a case of the common flu. About 500,000 people die. Now they're telling us to hibernate for the good of mankind. Where was this attitude last year, and the year before?

 

Whatever

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24 minutes ago, RJRS1301 said:

I fail to see how he given any advice, he has voiced his skepticism, he has a differing opinion, which many disagree with, but I see no advice

Don't worry, we all fail to see things that are staring us in the face at times, its an unconsciousness decision to ignore ????

"taking his advice puts you, you family, your friends and other people at serious risk."  Make of it what you will.

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1 hour ago, Logosone said:

I don't see how staying cool in the face of crisis can ever put anyone at risk.

 

Those panic mongers however who are buying the last milk and vegetables so that vulnerable people have to go without, that's another matter.

I just read that people in some of places in the UK have panic bought all the toilet paper and as the shelves are empty people started panic buying paper towels, and other kinds of paper.... now many drains and pipes have become blocked up LOL.  This is the kind of stupidity from panic and human selfishness that will makes things much worse.   I think the world has gone into a mad irrational panic over this virus and I am sick of it.

44 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

I am skeptical of 'experts' whose advice has shut down the world's economies for a death rate that is yet to be as high as the seasonal flus. Maybe it will be as bad as they say - but I am skeptical - and I am sure you hope I am right.

 

Agree.  Mass hysteria fueled by misinformation, politics, social media, and stupid / ignorant people (that seem to make up a larger proportion of the population than then used to).

 

So far, the coronavirus has led to more than 270,000 illnesses and more than 9,300 deaths worldwide. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has caused an estimated 36 million illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths this season.

 

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3 minutes ago, jak2002003 said:

I just read that people in some of places in the UK have panic bought all the toilet paper and as the shelves are empty people started panic buying paper towels, and other kinds of paper.... now many drains and pipes have become blocked up LOL.  This is the kind of stupidity from panic and human selfishness that will makes things much worse.   I think the world has gone into a mad irrational panic over this virus and I am sick of it.

Agree.  Mass hysteria fueled by misinformation, politics, social media, and stupid / ignorant people (that seem to make up a larger proportion of the population than then used to).

 

So far, the coronavirus has led to more than 270,000 illnesses and more than 9,300 deaths worldwide. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has caused an estimated 36 million illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths this season.

 

 

I agree, this mad irrational panic from so many is sickening. The scenes at UK supermarkets are sickening, grown people fighting over toilet paper. One can't blame them though the government response in the UK seems massively confused. On the one hand 'we hope to see immunity of the herd and 40 million should get infected', then a few days later 'stay at home don't go to pubs we hope to surpress the virus', it seems contradictory and confused.

 

 

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40 minutes ago, Shaunduhpostman said:

Good thread, nice to see what is going on being discussed. I can't help but feeling after several weeks of the CoVid19 crisis that there is almost all entirely panic driven or tunnelvision statements and even from time to time mistatements of the facts by people in leadership and by the media. One example would be California's governor Gavin Newsom. Newsom  has said recently publicly that California will be facing 25.5 million cases of CoVid19 and that he needs authority to suspend normal operations legal/government and declare a state of emergency. We are now seeing what could conceivably be a stepping up in that direction with the deployment of the California national guard, which is a US military branch, to distribute food.  Given that the US authorities have said they expect only 2 million cases, something seems very wrong with Newsom's statement that 25.5 million in California will be infected. Where are the facts and the support for this statement? As governor of California are we, in the current situation, allowed to ask for clarification?  Its just one example of things just not adding up and making one ask if there isn't a long line of of years of abuses of power in store for all of us under the rubric of, this is being done for your safety. I think the virus should be taken seriously as a threat in good measure, but what I find disturbing is the complete lack of media or even citizen oversight just by way of discussion and analysis regarding the actions statements of government and those with medical authority.  We have to bear in mind we are entrusting selfish human beings to take care of the crisis and if there is no room for oversight and if people don't respond we will have a lot more problems than CoVid19. The many upshots of the CoVid19 crisis seem to me to be looking to be much worse than the virus itself in the long run, not least of which is the train wrecking of the world economy.

 

I feel like I just don't get it or something. CoVid19 is a Corona virus as are flus and colds. Very few people will be on respirators hospitalised etc. Why aren't people being urged to up their immunity? Take vitamin C, eat plenty of vegetables, fruits and nuts, drink and smoke a bit less etc. If one is healthy the virus has less chance i would think of putting one in the hospital. I see zero attention in the media on improvng your own health to combat the virus.

 

Any flu or cold could also put one in the hospital. No doubt many are in the hospital now for colds and flus from other Corona viruses. Personally, when I was in Korea in 1997, I had a super nasty flu, that had me in bed at home for a week, no doubt if I weren't young and healthy it would have killed me. 104 degree fever or something like that. The doctor was not alarmed I was not quaranteened, just here's some meds and stay in bed and drink lots of fluids. These virusues have always been here, and to me it just seems like over-reach to shut everything down for 18 months as the Imperial college was recommending. It is never asked how many people will die as a result of the world economy crashing, there are going to be so many negative consequences for so many people. That is really the blind spot, the denial of how people in poverty die from poverty, so a discussion just isnt allowed, that potentially throwing billions into economic turmoil is a perfectly acceptable solution to CoVid19. It is just how modern medical treatments can often work, we don't carea bout the patient, just use whatever medication will get rid of the patient's condition.

 

To me, my non-expert, man on the street reaction is not to panic and try and get a perspective based what facts are being presented. I think  an important question to ask any time an expert says anything particulalry in the media is is what the expert saying fact driven and where are those facts coming from and are the facts being analyzed and considered in a way that makes sense. We all have some ability to come to our own correct conclusions and to just rely on experts is  a slippery slope. Sure they may have more training and knowledge than you and I but they have agendas and the people they work for have agendas and therein lies the meat of the problem is that people will most definitely be taking selfish advantage to our detriment.

 

 

Shaun, coronaviruses and influenza viruses are not the same. They are different viruses. However, they belong to the same realm of viruses, Riboviria realm of viruses, which encompasses all RNA viruses, including influenza and coronaviruses

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riboviria

 

Influenza viruses of the Orthomyxoviridae family are all, without exception, RNA viruses.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orthomyxoviridae

 

So they are related. But they are not strictly speaking the same virus.

 

They are both respiratory diseases, have almost identical symptoms and are transmitted in the same way. Moreover the mortality rates seem to be near identical.

 

It may well be that more people die from poverty caused by the governments bankrupting businesses. Or it could be that 40 million Britons catch the coronaivrus and there is no immunity and we all die.

 

The truth is most likely somewhere in between, around 130,000 people may die in the UK, assuming this virus doesn't just disappear overnight like SARS did. But of course we will only know at the end.

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14 minutes ago, CGW said:

taking his advice puts you, you family, your friends and other people at serious risk."  Make of it what you will.

Please show the advice he has given in his original post

He has offered opinions

 

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5 minutes ago, RJRS1301 said:

Please show the advice he has given in his original post

He has offered opinions

No - I give in - surrender - read it as you wish - stay safe ???? 

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9 minutes ago, CGW said:

No - I give in - surrender - read it as you wish - stay safe ???? 

There is no "advice" they are his opinions, please re-read it and understand the difference between his skeptical opinions and advice (none)

One may not agree with his opinions, (as I do not agree)  but they are not advice

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11 minutes ago, RJRS1301 said:

There is no "advice" they are his opinions, please re-read it and understand the difference between his skeptical opinions and advice (none)

One may not agree with his opinions, (as I do not agree)  but they are not advice

Sound advice - thanks ???? 

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43 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Shaun, coronaviruses and influenza viruses are not the same. They are different viruses. However, they belong to the same realm of viruses, Riboviria realm of viruses, which encompasses all RNA viruses, including influenza and coronaviruses

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riboviria

 

Influenza viruses of the Orthomyxoviridae family are all, without exception, RNA viruses.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orthomyxoviridae

 

So they are related. But they are not strictly speaking the same virus.

 

They are both respiratory diseases, have almost identical symptoms and are transmitted in the same way. Moreover the mortality rates seem to be near identical.

 

It may well be that more people die from poverty caused by the governments bankrupting businesses. Or it could be that 40 million Britons catch the coronaivrus and there is no immunity and we all die.

 

The truth is most likely somewhere in between, around 130,000 people may die in the UK, assuming this virus doesn't just disappear overnight like SARS did. But of course we will only know at the end.

Well, except that all coronaviri are negative sense RNA and all influenze are positive sense and thus replicate differently. And, CoVs are double the genome size of flus, etc.

 

But, all the tech stuff aside, you really miss the elephant in the room. nCoV2019 is completely new to humans just like the Spanish flu was. We don't have immunity, its future is unpredictable, the ordinary flu is fully predictable because we have some immunity and tons of vaccines. There is no vaccine for a conoravirus, in part because of their differences. There will be but it will be a while. It must be tested more because we have no experience with corona vaccines. Vaccines work on or immune system.  One problem is they found SARS affects our immune system differently than flus.  Coronavirus is not a flu and nCoV2019 is not ordinary.

 

SARS did not just disappear, it was stopped after 8000 cases thanks to a massive effort. They could do that because  SARS was not stealth like SARS-2. Big difference.

 

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29 minutes ago, rabas said:

Well, except that all coronaviri are negative sense RNA and all influenze are positive sense and replicate differently. And, CoVs are double the genome size of flus, etc.

 

But, all the tech stuff aside, you really miss the elephant in the room. nCoV2019 is completely new to humans just like the Spanish flu was. We don't have immunity, its future is unpredictable, the flu is fully predictable, we have some immunity, and tons of vaccines. There is no vaccine for a conoravirus, in part because of their differences. There will be but its going to be a while. It must be tested more because we have no experience with corona vaccines.  One problem is they found SARS affects our immune system differently than flus.  Coronavirus is not a flu and nCoV2019 is not ordinary.

 

SARS did not just disappear, it was stopped after 8000 cases thanks to a massive effort. They could do that because  SARS was not stealth like SARS-2. Big difference.

 

 

 

 

 

First of all if you're going to try and impress people by using the Latin plural of 'virus' you should know that in Latin virus is one of the few nouns that has no plural, it would be 'virus' in Latin.

 

I would suggest you use English, since we're talking in English, and in English the plural is viruses.

 

Secondly it is completely wrong that all coronaviruses are negative sense RNA.

 

" Positive-sense RNA viruses account for a large fraction of known viruses, including many pathogens such as the hepacivirus C, West Nile virus, dengue virus, SARS and MERS coronaviruses, and SARS-CoV-2"

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive-sense_single-stranded_RNA_virus

 

Your contention that 'we don't have immunity' from Covid19 is not an elephant, it is a paper mouse at best. Because you see the top medical advisors part from the assumption that after exposure to Covid19 we will have immunity. Yes, there are isolated cases of re-infection without immunity, but those are mere exceptions.

 

"On Monday, both Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, and Prof Chris Whitty, Boris Johnson’s chief medical adviser, sought to reassure the public. Those who have had the virus once will develop some immunity, they said – and it is rare to get an infectious disease again."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/the-big-question-over-coronavirus-can-a-person-get-it-twice

 

So there is no real mystery here, we are likely to develop immunity after we are infected, isolated cases where this did not happen were just exceptions.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

First of all if you're going to try and impress people by using the Latin plural of 'virus' you should know that in Latin virus is one of the few nouns that has no plural, it would be 'virus' in Latin.

 

I would suggest you use English, since we're talking in English, and in English the plural is viruses.

 

Secondly it is completely wrong that all coronaviruses are negative sense RNA.

 

" Positive-sense RNA viruses account for a large fraction of known viruses, including many pathogens such as the hepacivirus C, West Nile virus, dengue virus, SARS and MERS coronaviruses, and SARS-CoV-2"

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive-sense_single-stranded_RNA_virus

 

Your contention that 'we don't have immunity' from Covid19 is not an elephant, it is a paper mouse at best. Because you see the top medical advisors part from the assumption that after exposure to Covid19 we will have immunity. Yes, there are isolated cases of re-infection without immunity, but those are mere exceptions.

 

"On Monday, both Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, and Prof Chris Whitty, Boris Johnson’s chief medical adviser, sought to reassure the public. Those who have had the virus once will develop some immunity, they said – and it is rare to get an infectious disease again."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/the-big-question-over-coronavirus-can-a-person-get-it-twice

 

So there is no real mystery here, we are likely to develop immunity after we are infected, isolated cases where this did not happen were just exceptions.

 

 

All very good, with the exception at least two previously cleared persons have been reinfected, there has been no word from my reading about the severity of the reinfection.

Yes there are always outlayers in research and hypthosis 

 

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7 minutes ago, RJRS1301 said:

All very good, with the exception at least two previously cleared persons have been reinfected, there has been no word from my reading about the severity of the reinfection.

Yes there are always outlayers in research and hypthosis 

 

It is true that there have been reports from Japan that a person has been re-infected with the virus. I mention that. However, those are exceptions. 

 

I trust Sir Patric Vallance when he says these cases of re-infection are merely exceptions which have always happened in the past but are rare exceptions.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/the-big-question-over-coronavirus-can-a-person-get-it-twice

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The mortality rate even as high as it is now, it is low because people are treated.

If 70% will get it and 10% (q low estimate) require aggressive treatment to survive, then if one does the calculations one can easily see  that the medical system cannot possibly provide the aggressive treatment to keep people alive , and many who should not die under normal flu conditions will die and the mortality rates will skyrocket.  

below is a picture of the army truck convoy  taking the dead away Pergamon  in Italy to be burned .This was verified by my sister who lives only minutes away, and I talk too over the phone every day   If that does not send chills up your spine, nothing will , and no need to worry because you are already brain dead.

safe_image.php?d=AQCAD68_cVA_xqzp&w=540&h=282&url=https%3A%2F%2Feu.greekreporter.com%2Ffiles%2Fitaly-3.jpg&cfs=1&upscale=1&fallback=news_d_placeholder_publisher&_nc_hash=AQAoNkdf7vM6wpny

https://eu.greekreporter.com/2020/03/18/bodies-of-coronavirus-victims-transported-by-military-convoys-in-italy/

 

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3 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

Not that much off topic - it is about being older and surviving ????   There are many things on my bucket list I have done, and some I never will, but there is one I am hopeful of - and that is beating my age at golf.  I assume he was a good golfer and therefore probably did it in his 70s - and probably on a 'real' golf course (par 72). There is an easy golf course nearby here where par is 68 and I have shot in the mid 70s a few times - so maybe.  That is the key I reckon - finding  an easier golf course ????  No way at Augusta or Bay Hill - never will be I reckon on a course like that.

 

Shot 77 around Gymkhana age 76, but for a double bogey on the 17th, alas. IMO if we continue to set our selves goals, it is life-prolonging. My hero is Keith McPherson, in the Guinness Book of Records for breaking his age. Played with him quite a few  times. His grandson, Bryden McPherson, won the British Amateur. Good thread, it's stirring up the possums.

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8 minutes ago, sirineou said:

The mortality rate even as high as it is now, it is low because people are treated.

If 70% will get it and 10% (q low estimate) require aggressive treatment to survive, then if one does the calculations one can easily see  that the medical system cannot possibly provide the aggressive treatment to keep people alive , and many who should not die under normal flu conditions will die and the mortality rates will skyrocket.  

below is a picture of the army truck convoy  taking the dead away Pergamon  in Italy to be burned 

 

The mortality rate is not 'high'. A rate of 0.3 to 0.9% is not high by any stretch of the imagination.

 

Let's keep the cyrstal ball under the table. There've been many predictions as to figures, sadly nobody knows what the future will bring, but 70% looks extremely high.

 

Yes, army trucks, very scary, people die. But the reality is still that the mortality rate is a low 0.3% to 0.9%, it is not the crazy figures some are throwing around for Italy.

 

And those mortality rates are in fact in line with past flu pandemics, which, you will be pleased to know, we all survived and now barely remember.

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I thought like the OP, and then i calculate a little bit... even with 1% deads, it makes 75 million on earth in short time. And with let's say 10% sicks (i don't know), would need 750 millions medical care. Short time, not like cancer, pollution, malaria, hunger...

If no dangerous mutation (and viruses love to mute)...

 

The real problem may be gouvernements and agencies here. We know for sure a pandemy will (has, and will again !) happen. But they all are taken by surprise, in panic mode, like in France : no tests, no masks, no hospitals, in sufficient numbers, and it's "people fault"... seriously...

USA... well, what could you expect from the crazy guy... But same incompetence almost everywhere, except South Corea because they had one or two épidemies before.

 

Hopefully this will help those "deciders" to take their responsability. Since the impact on markets and economy is hudge, they will be ready for the next one, you can count on that ????. Not for the people no ???? (And people get the leaders and the systems they deserve, i would say.)

 

 

 

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There was never a single day that globally this virus killed more than 250 people, until March 10

The first day it killed more than 500 was March 15th

The first day it killed more than 1000 was March 19th

 

There is a good chance the number of deaths will be over 1500 today (March 21)

 

You can look at what happened to Italy, with the health service in northern Italy completely over run, doctors and nurses becoming sick themselves.

 

The case of Germany is interesting, because the number of deaths is so small compared to the number of cases. I am sure this is partly because the Germans have been better at organizing testing but I heard a quote from the head of the Robert Koch Institute (the body in German who compile the statistics) and he said that the Germans are not sure themselves why their death rate is so low and he suggested that it may be because many of their first cases were younger people who had gone skiing in northern Italy. Because these people are younger and physically fit they have been able to get over the disease. He said now that the virus was commonly being transmitted inside of Germany he expected the German death rate to rise.

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1 minute ago, Logosone said:

The mortality rate is not 'high'. A rate of 0.3 to 0.9% is not high by any stretch of the imagination.

 

Let's keep the cyrstal ball under the table. There've been many predictions as to figures, sadly nobody knows what the future will bring, but 70% looks extremely high.

 

Yes, army trucks, very scary, people die. But the reality is still that the mortality rate is a low 0.3% to 0.9%, it is not the crazy figures some are throwing around for Italy.

 

And those mortality rates are in fact in line with past flu pandemics, which, you will be pleased to know, we all survived and now barely remember.

I don't remember any army truck convoys taking bodies to be burned during last year's flu season, Do you?

0.3 mortality rate?

The percentages I see reported are 1% at the low end. 

I don't profess to have any expertise or first hand knowledge i just parot what I read and extrapolate. if you have any links to reputable courses that say otherwise I would be very interested to see them.    

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1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Secondly it is completely wrong that all coronaviruses are negative sense RNA.

Well, it's completely correct that one is positive and the other negative sense and thus replicate differently as I said, in spite of my typing error. Corona RNA can be used directly by the cell, which is the big difference. You still miss the elephant in the room for the sake of argument.

 

Your quote, the Guardian "Those who have had the virus once will develop some immunity, they said."

 

-- that means we don't have immunity until we get it, like the Spanish flu. The 'some' is because of the incidental reinfections, so even the pros are taking note of that. I wish you the best of health but I could not tell others its like the flu and no need for concern, we are facing the unknown.

 

BTW, the plurals are proper in English for their usage. Look it up.

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12 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

I look at Germany and I see a country that is 'bucking the trend'. In Germany there has been 13,979 confirmed cases and 42 deaths - mortality rate of 0.3%

That doesn't hold water.  You can only give a mortality rate when everyone has either recovered or died!

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16 minutes ago, Sambotte said:

I thought like the OP, and then i calculate a little bit... even with 1% deads, it makes 75 million on earth in short time. And with let's say 10% sicks (i don't know), would need 750 millions medical care. Short time, not like cancer, pollution, malaria, hunger...

If no dangerous mutation (and viruses love to mute)...

 

The real problem may be gouvernements and agencies here. We know for sure a pandemy will (has, and will again !) happen. But they all are taken by surprise, in panic mode, like in France : no tests, no masks, no hospitals, in sufficient numbers, and it's "people fault"... seriously...

USA... well, what could you expect from the crazy guy... But same incompetence almost everywhere, except South Corea because they had one or two épidemies before.

 

Hopefully this will help those "deciders" to take their responsability. Since the impact on markets and economy is hudge, they will be ready for the next one, you can count on that ????. Not for the people no ???? (And people get the leaders and the systems they deserve, i would say.)

 

 

 

I quite agree about the governments. They have all been caught with the pants down. And there was no reason for it. Already in 2012 the Robert Koch institute warned of a coronavirus pandemic and its possible ramifications. Coronaviruses have been known since the 1960s. Too much incompetence, very true.

 

Yes, but these are all crystal ball calculations assuming a flat infection rate that doesn't change. Even Sir Patrick Vallance has said Covid19 could be seasonal. There are far too many variables for anyone to predict the total deaths at this time. 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, chessman said:

There was never a single day that globally this virus killed more than 250 people, until March 10

The first day it killed more than 500 was March 15th

The first day it killed more than 1000 was March 19th

 

There is a good chance the number of deaths will be over 1500 today (March 21)

 

You can look at what happened to Italy, with the health service in northern Italy completely over run, doctors and nurses becoming sick themselves.

 

The case of Germany is interesting, because the number of deaths is so small compared to the number of cases. I am sure this is partly because the Germans have been better at organizing testing but I heard a quote from the head of the Robert Koch Institute (the body in German who compile the statistics) and he said that the Germans are not sure themselves why their death rate is so low and he suggested that it may be because many of their first cases were younger people who had gone skiing in northern Italy. Because these people are younger and physically fit they have been able to get over the disease. He said now that the virus was commonly being transmitted inside of Germany he expected the German death rate to rise.

Don't think so, like Italy, Germany has a mostly older population.

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16 minutes ago, sirineou said:

I don't remember any army truck convoys taking bodies to be burned during last year's flu season, Do you?

0.3 mortality rate?

The percentages I see reported are 1% at the low end. 

I don't profess to have any expertise or first hand knowledge i just parot what I read and extrapolate. if you have any links to reputable courses that say otherwise I would be very interested to see them.    

With pleasure. The reason why some people have inflated death rates is that they only take the identified cases.

 

However, Sir Patrick Vallance has said that the real number of cases is at least ten times, possibly twenty times higher.

 

As you can see here, when Britain had 590 cases identified the chief medical advisors said they thought the real figure was 5000 or 10000.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8105941/Chief-medics-raise-coronavirus-threat-HIGH-UK.html

 

Now if you take those real figures and compare the death figures with THEM, you get the real mortality rate.

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2 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Ahuh, still a death rate of 0.27.

 

Not exactly a huge mortality rate, is it?

What utter rubbish.  Germany has over 20,000 active cases and 209 recovered.

How many of those 20,000 are going to recover?  Mathematical nonsense.

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