Wuhan Covid Virus - no need to be scared - yet

[gamb00ler]

31 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

That is of course wrong, the fact that Covid19 and Influenza share clinical symptoms and transmission method, are both respiratory diseases is very relevant to preventive measures. In fact the key preventive measure being used, social distancing, is exactly the same and was used during the Spanish flu pandemic as well.

 

The virus are very much comparable, not in genomic sense, but in other characteristics

 

COVID-19 is a very similar disease to influenza. 

 

https://now.tufts.edu/articles/how-does-covid-19-compare-flu

 

Your notion that no-one has immunity to Covid19 is plain and simple wrong, a lot of people have already been infected and have recovered, those people most likely will have immunity. The whole strategy of Sir Patrick Vallance in the UK is for the UK to develop 'herd immunity', because UK scientists believe that immunity to Covid19 will follow, isolated exceptions notwithstanding.

 

The flu vaccines were never a perfect defense to the flu, and you may want to ponder that in Thailand where flu vaccines are hardly used at all only 2500 people die of influenza per year whereas in the UK, where vaccination is widespread, 17000 die on average per year though the population of the UK is smaller.

 

 

I stated that the response to pandemic influenza IS relevant to COVID-19.  You seem to be one of those who continually conflate COVID-19 with the regular seasonal flu.  Pandemic influenza and seasonal influenza are very dissimilar.  

 

LOL   a lot of recovered cases with immunity.  A good larf that one.  Almost zero of those people live where the virus is currently infecting people at an exponentially growing rate.

 

AFAIK, the UK woke up and abandoned their silly "herd immunity" approach after determining that it would cost way too many lives.

 

You just ignore too many relevant factors when you quote statistics for different situations and environments.  A little reading could prevent your simple errors.  I find it hard to believe that you think it is valid to compare Thailand influenza rates with those of more northerly countries, ignoring climates effect.

 

[AussieBob18]

7 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

You again misunderstand the impact of the infection. The Diamond Princess has

8 deaths, with the most recent a few days ago.  Of the 712 who were infected, only 551 have recovered. Where do you think those long term infected people are? Do the math. The virus may not kill, but 15%  become critically ill and they do not necessarily recover in a few weeks. Hospitals cannot keep losing beds to chronic care patients. It means that other critical care patients are denied care and they in turn die. 

The demographic of the ship is a large percentage of older people on a cruise.  According to the reports of those since released, is that they are keeping people under monitoring/care because they have not yet fully recovered - not because they are dieing. They are doing this to stop the spread as because even though you are not very sick, they believe that once you have the virus you continue to spread it for weeks even though you are fine.  People are not released until they completely lose all symptoms and are tested clear - I think they are doing that twice too because some people have tested positive then negative and then positive again.  I have no idea where you got 15% became chronically ill on the ship - can you advise me on that.  But you are right in that the medical systems are being swamped and that is a big problem in some locations. 

[AussieBob18]

3 minutes ago, Don Mega said:

Ahh righto, given how useless the youngens seem to be these days wiping them out cannot be a bad thing.

If there is another world war they will have to draft all of us, because the millenials will be useless under command, and more  dangerous to each other than to the enemy ????

 

[Don Mega]

3 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

If there is another world war they will have to draft all of us, because the millenials will be useless under command, and more  dangerous to each other than to the enemy ????

 

WWIII will be a bunch of suits in offices around the world pressing buttons to remotely launch weapons........... sadly some of those suits will be millennial's.

Edited March 22, 2020 by Don Mega

[Logosone]

17 minutes ago, gamb00ler said:

I stated that the response to pandemic influenza IS relevant to COVID-19.  You seem to be one of those who continually conflate COVID-19 with the regular seasonal flu.  Pandemic influenza and seasonal influenza are very dissimilar.  

 

LOL   a lot of recovered cases with immunity.  A good larf that one.  Almost zero of those people live where the virus is currently infecting people at an exponentially growing rate.

 

AFAIK, the UK woke up and abandoned their silly "herd immunity" approach after determining that it would cost way too many lives.

 

You just ignore too many relevant factors when you quote statistics for different situations and environments.  A little reading could prevent your simple errors.  I find it hard to believe that you think it is valid to compare Thailand influenza rates with those of more northerly countries, ignoring climates effect.

 

Not at all, I have also looked at flu pandemics not seasonal flu, it was you who started talking of the seasonal flu. You're the one who made the simple errors, claiming that there were no people with immunity, that preventive measures for the flu and Covid19 were not similar, when they are.

 

There are a lot of people with immunity now. Around 100,000 have recovered and will have immunity, of the 307,000 infected 13000 have died, so close to another 100,000 could have immunity. Of course that figure just takes identified cases. As Sir Patrick Vallance has stated the actual number of cases is more than ten or twenty times higher. Applying the same figure to the people with immunity there could be 2,000,000 or 4,000,000 people with immunity. Of course that number will increase all the time, as the number of infected and recovered increases all the time, not just number of deaths.

 

Sir Patrick Vallance has not abandoned the idea of immunity, that is still very much scientific consensus that immunity is likely.  It is only a practical point, that he wants to keep deaths down that he now also advised closure of public places. This does not affect the immunity principle.

 

Ignoring climate effects, lol, oh please, so we should not compare Chinese and Italian and US death rates because of climate? Do spare me your nonsense.

Edited March 22, 2020 by Logosone

[MikeN]

3 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

 

However, it is already apparent that the actual mortality rate for Covid19 is nowhere near 3.4, % or 6% or anything of that nature at this point in time. The figure of 0.3% is likely to come down substantially after the pandemic is over and the true figures can be estimated more reliably.

 

 

 

 

The current death toll is 13,078. The latest number of cases is 311,268 as I write this, which works out at 4.201%.

 

[AussieBob18]

10 hours ago, MikeN said:

The current death toll is 13,078. The latest number of cases is 311,268 as I write this, which works out at 4.201%.

 

Those are the current numbers based on a high proportion of those tested being done on people who are very sick. Whereas in Germany which has tested a lot more people, including those not showing symptoms but also testing positive, the numbers are nowhere near that.  I understand not reading all 15 pages, but to summarise my previous posts:

Germany has tested over 400K people - probably 500K - they are now testing 160K per week.

18323 confirmed cases (4.5% infection rate estimate) and they have had 45 deaths (0.25% mortality rate estimate).

Way too early to say that are the final numbers - but Germany has tested a high number of people. 

And the numbers onboard the Diamond Princess indicate an infection rate of 20% and mortality rate of 1%.  

When Swine Flu (H1N1) started its numbers were similar to Covid19 - but in the end (over 1 year later) they declared it was slightly more infectious than 'seasonal flu' and about the same mortality rate (300K to 500K) and it is now officially a 'seasonal flu'. 

When I say 'they' I mean WHO and CDC and other National infectious disease control organisations (all links previously posted).

[Logosone]

10 hours ago, MikeN said:

The current death toll is 13,078. The latest number of cases is 311,268 as I write this, which works out at 4.201%.

 

That is only counting identified cases.

 

As per the UK chief health adviser Sir Patrick Vallance the actual number of cases is up to twenty times higher.

 

So you first need to multiply the identified cases by a multiple of 20, then apply the deaths for a more accurate mortality rate.

[Logosone]

This was all predicted in 2012:

 

https://www.disclose.tv/pandemic-research-paper-by-the-german-government-from-2012-389626

[MikeN]

33 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

 

18323 confirmed cases (4.5% infection rate estimate) and they have had 45 deaths (0.25% mortality rate estimate).

Way too early to say that are the final numbers - but Germany has tested a high number of people. 

Don’t know where you are plucking your figures from, but Germany has 25,554 confirmed cases and 95 deaths !

[AussieBob18]

14 minutes ago, MikeN said:

Don’t know where you are plucking your figures from, but Germany has 25,554 confirmed cases and 95 deaths !

95 of 25554 is 0.37% - long way to go before able to calculate final numbers.

 

Source is :  https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

And I have already stated that they tend to be a day behind the actuals - takes a bit to put the worldwide numbers together.

 

 

[Logosone]

Not according to the Johns Hopkins dashboard.

 

It says Germany had 22364 cases and 84 deaths.

 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

It will vary by where you take the data from, the Robert Koch Insitute has lower figures still

 

Let's say 25,554 cases were 'identified'. That would mean that Germany has 255,000 to 500,000 cases, possibly more.

 

If you apply the 95 death figure to the 255,000, not even the bigger number, you'd have a death rate no greater than 0.037. 

 

 

Edited March 22, 2020 by Logosone

[AussieBob18]

21 minutes ago, Logosone said:

This was all predicted in 2012:

https://www.disclose.tv/pandemic-research-paper-by-the-german-government-from-2012-389626

I saw a report from after Swine Flu that questioned the lack of any definitive worldwide strategy to deal with a serious pandemic, and the only thing I cvould see that was done was to ramp up the WHO protocols and resources.  

 

I bet this report was actually actioned in Germany and the medical systems and infrastructure issues addressed and things prepared just in case.  That is probably why Germany is dealing with this so much better than all the other countries.

 

And I am so impressed with Korea - they were one of the first infected and had an escalated infection rate second only to China. But as of 20 March they had conducted 316,664 tests with 8652 confirmed cases (2.7%) and 94 deaths (1.1%) and their new confirmed cases have been dropping daily and their mortality rate as well.  Perhaps they had things in place as well - they certainly ramped things up quickly and achieved good results.

 

[AussieBob18]

I came across this report from another TV poster - unconfirmed so I am not saying it is true (yet) - but if it is true then it looks like China has got it under control - at least in his area (fingers crossed):

 

"my thai gf and i are currently working in hainan, china.  when this started, we decided to wait it out here.  thought it would be more dangerous to risk infection in train stations and airport terminals, and assumed the virus would spread to other countries and we'd just be walking into it all over again.

we had our one-month lockdown with conditions similar to bangkok, although for us it included shut down of public transport.  no buses or taxis.  people followed the quarantine rules, and we've had no new cases in this province for one month.  this week, they began lifting restrictions.  shops and restaurants are open for business, buses and taxis are running.  high schools will reopen april 7, colleges and unis expected to open the end of april with students from the mainland undergoing 14 days mandatory quarantine.

things are starting to pick up.  seeing help wanted signs in some of the shops already.  dancing grannies (and their boomboxes) are returning to the city park next door.  starting to see more construction equipment (cranes, diggers) being transported.  friends on the mainland tell me factories are beginning to reopen as well."

 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1155113-bangkok-should-i-stay-or-should-i-go/?tab=comments#comment-15192904

 

[Logosone]

19 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

I saw a report from after Swine Flu that questioned the lack of any definitive worldwide strategy to deal with a serious pandemic, and the only thing I cvould see that was done was to ramp up the WHO protocols and resources.  

 

I bet this report was actually actioned in Germany and the medical systems and infrastructure issues addressed and things prepared just in case.  That is probably why Germany is dealing with this so much better than all the other countries.

 

And I am so impressed with Korea - they were one of the first infected and had an escalated infection rate second only to China. But as of 20 March they had conducted 316,664 tests with 8652 confirmed cases (2.7%) and 94 deaths (1.1%) and their new confirmed cases have been dropping daily and their mortality rate as well.  Perhaps they had things in place as well - they certainly ramped things up quickly and achieved good results.

 

The really astonishing and heart-breaking truth is that despite the genius to foresee in this report even the minutest detail of what we are now going through, despite the fact that this report was put before the German government, the German government did not really prepare for what was analyzed or understand what the geniuses in the Robert Koch Institute were telling them.

 

As a result the German government did not really prepare. Yes, they had 28,000 icu beds, compared to 4000 in the UK, but that was because spending on the health system was always extremely high, and has been going up for years.

 

There were no specific preparations for a coronavirus, despite this eerily accurate prediction from the Robert Koch Institut.

 

As a result Germany is now scrambling to double its number of hospital beds. The number of nurses per bed ratio is smaller than in Slovakia. If the number of infections were to get really bad even the German health system would struggle. Because they did not prepare. Even though they had the predictions in front of them.

 

It's astonishing. It's heartbreaking, the reckless incompetence of the German government.

Edited March 22, 2020 by Logosone

[AussieBob18]

48 minutes ago, Logosone said:

The really astonishing and heart-breaking truth is that despite the genius to foresee in this report even the minutest detail of what we are now going through, despite the fact that this report was put before the German government, the German government did not really prepare for what was analyzed or understand what the geniuses in the Robert Koch Institute were telling them.

As a result the German government did not really prepare. Yes, they had 28,000 icu beds, compared to 4000 in the UK, but that was because spending on the health system was always extremely high, and has been going up for years.

There were no specific preparations for a coronavirus, despite this eerily accurate prediction from the Robert Koch Institut.

As a result Germany is now scrambling to double its number of hospital beds. The number of nurses per bed ratio is smaller than in Slovakia. If the number of infections were to get really bad even the German health system would struggle. Because they did not prepare. Even though they had the predictions in front of them.

It's astonishing. It's heartbreaking, the reckless incompetence of the German government.

I hear you - and I should have known. Govts are incompetent and Politicians are schemers - same everywhere - no way they would ever do anything other than react when forced to do so, or when it is a popular thing to do. 

 

[Logosone]

5 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

I hear you - and I should have known. Govts are incompetent and Politicians are schemers - same everywhere - no way they would ever do anything other than react when forced to do so, or when it is a popular thing to do. 

 

That's exactly right, Angela Merkel reacted after an infected person was diagnosed. Long after Italy closed its airports to flights from China.

 

The public was clamouring for something to be done in Germany, Lufthansa even out of themselves stopped flights from China. Did not prevent Chinese airlines flying into Frankfurt daily, because the German government did nothing to stop flights and isolate the country.

 

Now they palm it off on the individual, every person has to isolate, and do what the government could not do.

 

The incompetence is infuriating.

[AussieBob18]

54 minutes ago, Logosone said:

The really astonishing and heart-breaking truth is that despite the genius to foresee in this report even the minutest detail of what we are now going through, despite the fact that this report was put before the German government, the German government did not really prepare for what was analyzed or understand what the geniuses in the Robert Koch Institute were telling them.

As a result the German government did not really prepare. Yes, they had 28,000 icu beds, compared to 4000 in the UK, but that was because spending on the health system was always extremely high, and has been going up for years.

There were no specific preparations for a coronavirus, despite this eerily accurate prediction from the Robert Koch Institut.

As a resultGermany is now scrambling to double its number of hospital beds. The number of nurses per bed ratio is smaller than in Slovakia. If the number of infections were to get really bad even the German health system would struggle. Because they did not pepare. Even though they had the predictions in front of them.

It's astonishing. It's heartbreaking, the reckless incompetence of the German government.

I just remembered a real life situation that I was personally involved in that shows how incomptent and reactionary Govts are.  Some years ago before I had retired and moved to Thailand the first time, there was a roundabout where I lived that was a bit dangerous.  I was out and about in a car most days, and found out the hard way - but avoided the accident. I reported it to the police and was told that it was a known problem but was not on the 'list' for urgent upgrade/rebuild.  I spoke to many others and they all agreed it was a dangerous setup and I found out that it had been that way for many years before I had even moved to the city.  If you know me you will know I dont back off easy on such things, so I made a formal written complaint and demanded an investigation and response.  I got a response from the Minister's Office saying the same as what the police had said. A couple of years later an older Gandmother and her Grandaughter were killed at that roundabout and it was a very high profile media strory for nearly a week.  The Govt immediately started the upgrade and spent $30M to rebuild the roundabout (way too much was done). Then the Govt made big waves about how good they were to have fixed it, and the media fawned all over them and themselves for having got the work done.  No one was held accountable for ignoring years of complaints and requests to upgrade the rounabout.  I considered taking my letters and responses (especially the Minister's letter) to the family, until I saw them in a media interview saying they were grateful the problem was fixed for others, and wanted to now let it go and get on with their lives.  People let down and lives lost and others damaged because of incompetence and ignorance - again. 

[Logosone]

That story illustrates perfectly what we are going through now.

 

Politicians do nothing until things are really bad.

 

All of this could have been avoided! A paper by the Robert Koch Institute in 2012 warned the governments. It was debated in the German parliament.

 

Did they do anything?

 

Hell no.

[britishjohn]

I believe the main reason Italy has such a high fatality rate may be simply the age of those with confirmed cases. S Korea's cases are more or less in line with the age distribution of the general population. But in Italy there are a disproportionate number of elderly people. This may be due to lack of extensive testing. 

 

 

[RickG16]

On 3/21/2020 at 8:58 AM, Vigilante said:

 

The secondary effects are

 

Which of the secondary effects in particular? Economic?

[Pedrogaz]

Look of you get COVID-19 you might die, If you are 30 years old and exercise every day it is unlikely you will die. If you are 80 have smoked for 60 years and your heart and lints are knackered it is likely you will be for the incinerator. There are no guarantees in life....stop being such a scaredy cat and enjoy your life while it lasts.

[Logosone]

3 hours ago, britishjohn said:

I believe the main reason Italy has such a high fatality rate may be simply the age of those with confirmed cases. S Korea's cases are more or less in line with the age distribution of the general population. But in Italy there are a disproportionate number of elderly people. This may be due to lack of extensive testing. 

 

 

 

It could be, but Germany's population is older than Italy's. Why would older people be disproportionately affected in Italy but not in Germany, that has an even older population?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/maps-and-graphics/oldest-and-youngest-countries-populations/

 

[britishjohn]

41 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

It could be, but Germany's population is older than Italy's. Why would older people be disproportionately affected in Italy but not in Germany, that has an even older population?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/maps-and-graphics/oldest-and-youngest-countries-populations/

 

one possibility may be that in Germany they have tested extensively. People can be tested if they show mild symptoms or had contact with an infected person. Therefore they pick up people of all ages. Whereas perhaps in Italy they are only testing those with severe symptoms, which tend to be old.

 

If that is true then Germany's fatality rate may be closer to the true rate. 

[gamb00ler]

18 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

This world is full of over-educated idiots that were taught more about the environment, rights and their feelings, than they were taught about the reality of life and death (the classics).  This is the price that we are all now paying.

You probably exist because in the long history of humans, some "expert" (AKA over-educated idiot) created/improved a tool or a process that allowed one of your ancestors to survive and reproduce instead of dying childless.

Edited March 22, 2020 by gamb00ler

[gamb00ler]

10 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

I came across this report from another TV poster - unconfirmed so I am not saying it is true (yet) - but if it is true then it looks like China has got it under control - at least in his area (fingers crossed):

 

"my thai gf and i are currently working in hainan, china.  when this started, we decided to wait it out here.  thought it would be more dangerous to risk infection in train stations and airport terminals, and assumed the virus would spread to other countries and we'd just be walking into it all over again.

we had our one-month lockdown with conditions similar to bangkok, although for us it included shut down of public transport.  no buses or taxis.  people followed the quarantine rules, and we've had no new cases in this province for one month.  this week, they began lifting restrictions.  shops and restaurants are open for business, buses and taxis are running.  high schools will reopen april 7, colleges and unis expected to open the end of april with students from the mainland undergoing 14 days mandatory quarantine.

things are starting to pick up.  seeing help wanted signs in some of the shops already.  dancing grannies (and their boomboxes) are returning to the city park next door.  starting to see more construction equipment (cranes, diggers) being transported.  friends on the mainland tell me factories are beginning to reopen as well."

 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1155113-bangkok-should-i-stay-or-should-i-go/?tab=comments#comment-15192904

 

So some of those draconian "over reactions" worked?  Good to know.

[gamb00ler]

15 hours ago, Don Mega said:

Ahh righto, given how useless the youngens seem to be these days wiping them out cannot be a bad thing.

We still need 'em to fund our pensions.  I'm sure many of our parents had the same thoughts about us.

[gamb00ler]

I hope the critics of how many governments react to this pandemic don't point to the number of resultant deaths and forget those hopefully low number were achieved through great sacrifice.  AFAIK there will no accurate method to determine how many lives would have been lost with reduced governmental actions.  The perfect level of reaction will never be known.

Edited March 22, 2020 by gamb00ler

[gamb00ler]

15 hours ago, Logosone said:

Ignoring climate effects, lol, oh please, so we should not compare Chinese and Italian and US death rates because of climate? Do spare me your nonsense.

You compared Thailand's seasonal influenza experience with that of the West.  That is the comparison that makes no sense.   It is common knowledge that climate is a big factor in the seasonal influenza.  I must admit you're exceptional in not knowing.

[gamb00ler]

18 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

You are correct.  However, the same was true of Swine Flu (H1N1) and in fact Covid19 has numbers of rates similar to that at the beginning.  The biggest difference with Swine Flu was that the infection and mortality rates of those over 60 was extremely low compared to all previous viral infections.  They believe that this is because the Swine Flu virus is very similar to the virus that caused a pandemic in 1950s and the elderly had immunities that worked, but the younger ones did not. 

Most of those in power are >> 60. Perhaps that has influenced some of their decisions regarding COVID-19.

 

Regarding your comment on immunity....I was raised on a small farm and was of course exposed to several types of livestock and their attendant bacterial and perhaps viral biome.  Research has shown that such exposure gives one immunities that urban residents don't have.  I think I got the flu once in my life and only had vaccination in the last 8 years or so.