Please read these medical opinions

[Logosone]

7 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

You claim  There are so many errors and falsehoods in your above posts, and yet it is you who persists in  making incorrect comparisons to support your position. You state;

there have been flu pandemics with a much worse rate of death.

Your comparison is unacceptable because;

 

1. You seek to compare the Covid 19 pandemic after 3 months with pandemics that  stretched over a much longer  period of time.

 

2. You reference pandemics  that occurred under significantly different circumstances such that a comparison is not appropriate. The first H1N1 flu pandemic was 1918-1919 and there was no vaccine available. It stretched almost 2 years. We are at month 3 with Covid 19. The H1N1 flu pandemic of 2008-2009 started when there was no vaccine. However, a vaccine was quickly  available and prevented  deaths in the parts of the world that  administered the vaccine. I remember  getting my emergency vaccine.  Those who died were primarily not vaccinated.  There is no preventative vaccine available for Covid19.

 

In 2012 the Robert Koch Institute warned about this pandemic. In 2015 Bill Gates warned about a coming pandemic. And those are just the ones who went on record.

Yes, you have made this point multiple times. One entity  in a world with hundreds of specialty units that had differing views. Governments made strategic decisions. I do not disagree with you.  The western countries all stopped funding SARS research once the SARS crisis subsided.  The only reason there is a vaccine headstart in Canada is because the  Saudis were funding the University of Saskatchewan MERS research. However, this has no relevance to your claims that I am using false information.

 

And you're telling me this could not have been prevented by our governments not acting sooner instead of watching Wuhan like paralysed deer?

 

No, not saying that at all. Governments put profits ahead of common sense. The fact that Thailand allowed infected Chinese to flow in by the  thousands wrong. However,the western world  was equally wrong in that regard. The reality is that society as a whole refused to support the closure of borders. Look at the idiots who were still going on holidays as late as  March. People  have refused to comply with social distancing. That is their free choice but it is wrong and immoral.

 

Your medical analysis notwithstanding, in Iceland where thus far the biggest testing effort has been made 2% of those tested had Covid19. A very small number. And of that small number again only half had symptons. Of that even smaller number a fraction had to go to intensive care. Of that even even smaller number a smaller fraction are in mortal danger, mostly those over 80.

 

You refer to Iceland as if it provides a definitive indication. It does not. The results are very different than what is being evidenced in parts of Canada, EU and USA.  The driver of infections in Iceland is that it  was Iceland national traveler based, as opposed to what we are seeing in Italy which was both italian  national traveler and foreign visitor based. Italy  received a much greater injection of the infection than some other countries. Iceland's nations were willing to self isolate. Other countries were not.

 

Your reference to data is unacceptable as it  does not provide a reliable data base for general conclusions.  Your data relies on the  initial testing of 5,571 people. It showed 48 positive results. Since  28 february there are 473  diagnosed patients in Iceland.  Yes, at the time of testing  50% did not report conventional symptoms. We don't know what happened a few days later. The disease progresses differently in people. We are seeing in North America that  people show with symptoms because they were asked to wait. In iceland it was testing without a waiting period.

 

With due respect, but we've already seen a respiratory disease that persists and keeps returning. It's called the flu. Have we locked the entire planet down for 10 weeks? I don't think so. And your biggest mistake: There is no immunity? Of course there is immunity.

 

Having recovered from influenza does not make one immune to influenza. Viruses mutate, they change over time. This is how they defeat antibodies. Some viruses mutate faster than others.

I stated that there will  be short term immunity, but there has been NO EVIDENCE to support the claim that there is long term immunity. What clinical studies  show long term immunity for Covid 19? please  cite them.  There is one study in China on monkeys  that showed  show short term immunity. Did you read it? That study used 4 monkeys. FOUR.  It is nice that you quote Prof. Cohen giving his opinion.  Others have an opposite opinion.

 

Immunity is estimated by the presence of specific antibodies. We see that people easily become reinfected by corona virus caused colds. Others have immunity for 1-3 years. MERS recovered patients showed antibodies persisted up to 3 years in some patients. In SARS, antibodies were seen in recovered patients of up to 7 years and in others of less than 1 year.  Yes, we can say there is immunity, but in respect to public health and population security this is not sufficient. We need to see population protection in excess of 90%.

 

 

Short term pain? The Great Depression lasted 10 years. Can you guarantee me that the coming depression will not last 10 years?

 

You refuse to give social distancing an opportunity to work. It is the most cost effective and immediate tool we have available. You play the  % game of trying to minimize impact by  emphasizing the young will be ok or that most will have  mild symptoms. Unfortunately that is not what we are seeing in North America. If it was mild  our ICUs would not now be filled to capacity. Young people are  becoming ill. They are hospitalized, some for 20 days+. This costs money. prevention is more cost effective than allowing the  infection to run wild.  Three more weeks of enforced social distancing will contain the illness, followed by  responsible social  distancing will give us the time to develop a  vaccine. If we do not do this, the social costs of watching family members succumb or having a die off of the otherwise functional population will devastate countries.

Of course if you make a historic comparison to flu pandemics then you have the benefit, and it is a real benefit, of using firm data. Much firmer data than is available now. For instance with the H1N1 pandemic there was huge debate among academics for years how many actually died. A consenus was established after some time, after very thorough investigations. Same with the Spanish flu pandemic.

 

So we know the following: the final, actual, death figures are much, much lower BY FAR than those death figures estimated during and shortly after a pandemic.  When we take those more reliable Flu pandemic figures those are 'cleaned' figures. In relation to Covid19 we will have to wait some time also to get hard solid data.

 

However there is no doubt whatsoever that the current alarmist mortality rates are incorrect.

 

As for your argument that vaccines made a key difference in H1N1 that's actually not the case. Looking at actual data rather than anecdotal personal experience:

 

In 2011, a study from the US Flu Vaccine Effectiveness Network estimated the overall effectiveness of all pandemic H1N1 vaccines at 56%. A CDC study released 28 January 2013, estimated that the Pandemic H1N1 vaccine saved roughly 300 lives

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic#Vaccines

 

 

That's actually not a lot of difference. Indeed to this day there is no fully effective vaccine for H1N1 and the threat is contained.

 

The Robert Koch Institute is not just 'one' institute among hundreds of specialty units. It is THE leading German government research institute on health and one of a few handful of world-leading health research institutes. When it did its risk analysis in 2012 it was debated in parliament. Did Merkel prepare for the horrific scenario the experts warned against? Not one bit. So this pandemic too could have been prevented, at least outside China, if adequate steps had been taken. You're right that SARS funding was reduced by everyone, but it's not the case that this pandemic could not have been prevented. The warnings were loud and clear. Shrill even.

 

Social distancing is whole different matter. In fact social distancing may be wrong and immoral.

 

"Flattening the curve to avoid overwhelming the health system is conceptually sound — in theory. A visual that has become viral in media and social media shows how flattening the curve reduces the volume of the epidemic that is above the threshold of what the health system can handle at any moment.

 

Yet if the health system does become overwhelmed, the majority of the extra deaths may not be due to coronavirus but to other common diseases and conditions such as heart attacks, strokes, trauma, bleeding, and the like that are not adequately treated. If the level of the epidemic does overwhelm the health system and extreme measures have only modest effectiveness, then flattening the curve may make things worse: Instead of being overwhelmed during a short, acute phase, the health system will remain overwhelmed for a more protracted period. That’s another reason we need data about the exact level of the epidemic activity."

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

 

In Iceland more than 10000 patients were tested, but you are right that the data from other countries still needs to be evaluated. However a bit hard to do when the NHS is not testing its population in a meaningful way. But even in China the figures are that of all Covid19 patients only 20% need medical care.

 

Doubting immunity when that is the general rule with viral infections is frankly not productive, especially in the absence of hard data. I am perfectly comfortable with the pronouncement of highly eminent specialists like Prof Cohen that immunity is the rule, exceptions notwithanding. Of course there are no full medical studies yet to confirm it with hard data, these take time and will no doubt follow. Everyone knows that immunity may not be eternal, that viruses mutate etc, however, the advantage with Covid19 is that it is from a group of viruses that mutate a lot less than the influenza viruses. So far there are few mutations and those that have been found were found to be inconsequential. Moreover often mutations work in our favour. The SARS virus lost a part of its genome related to transmission, which helped us. Have you read that study? There are viral diseases, like smallpox, that have been completely eradicated as well.

 

In short there is good reason to expect immunity will occur over a longer period, after all Sir Patrick Vallance in the UK based his whole strategy on that pillar, immunity. Those that are scaremongering claiming there is no immunity are doing more harm than good and are not fully informed.

 

I am certainly not pinning my hope on social distancing. There is no evidence at all that social distancing works. There are highly respectable experts from Stanford and such saying that in fact 'flattening the curve' could have the opposite effect of what was intended. Of course what will happen, as the numbers of infected is grossly underestimated due to insufficient testing, herd immunity will take place and all the social distance extremists will say "see, it works"! Social distancing will not end the virus pandemic. Nobody, but nobody seriously believes that who has an ounce of scientific authority. At best it will delay things, at very best, but again that may be a bad thing, not a good thing, see the article above from the Stanford academic.

 

More likely countries will be devastated by the social distancing craze imposed by extremists in the total absence of iron-clad data whatsoever, and its nightmarish consequences. I see you don't address the horrific economic consequences of social distancing at all. A 30% percent contraction of GDP in the US in ONE SINGLE QUARTER. God help us all if the social distancing fanatics continue to get their way. 

 

[Brunolem]

11 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

Yes, many people have lost their employment, but better a short term disruption than their death or long term disability. 

Before the start of the pandemic, the economy was much weaker than the population.

 

As a matter of fact, it had been under respiratory assistance (zero interest rates) and massive injections of antibiotics (money creation by the truckload) for 10 years.

 

What has been done to fight the coronavirus is that the oxygen has been removed from the economy to be given to the elderlies (in majority).

 

The economy is like a living organism.

 

When deprived from oxygen, cells (businesses) start to die at an impressive rate.

 

You can reanimate it, sometimes, but the damage has been done, often irreversible.

 

The millions that have lost their jobs overnight will not get their jobs back overnight.

 

It will take months, or more.

 

Many of the small businesses that have been forced to shut down will never reopen.

 

This is not a "short term disruption" but a long term disaster, and the number of suicides linked to this disaster will probably far exceed the number of deaths by virus.

 

As for the economy, it will never be its former self...just look at Japan after 1990...and that is a best case scenario...

 

[Logosone]

26 minutes ago, nauseus said:

I meant that we were way overdue for a financial crash before the virus problem emerged. Yes the 20's were a boom after WW1 and the Spanish Flu but we are not in the same situation now.

 

Yes, too much gawking at China and hoping for the best by the rest of the world, before it was too late to catch it. China should have been waiving the red flag higher and much earlier, given their extensive history and experience of similar zoonoses. The existence of this virus was identified well before those 5 million were allowed to leave Wuhan, just before Chinese New Year and the lock-down - they dispersed all over China, and beyond - hopeless.

'

 

 

That's actually a very good point. We need to look at the global economic conditions. In the 1950s and 1960s the world was in economic boom conditions. So when Germany rebuilt from scratch it was helped by boom times around the world. When East Germany was assimilated of course many equally predicted a resurgence of East Germany. It never happened to that degree because East Germany did not benefit from a booming world economy.

 

So just because after the Spanish Flu boom times followed that is no guarantee this will follow after Covid19. It may have had more to do with WW1.

 

The global economic conditions are indeed different today. Good point.

[Logosone]

9 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Before the start of the pandemic, the economy was much weaker than the population.

 

As a matter of fact, it had been under respiratory assistance (zero interest rates) and massive injections of antibiotics (money creation by the truckload) for 10 years.

 

What has been done to fight the coronavirus is that the oxygen has been removed from the economy to be given to the elderlies (in majority).

 

The economy is like a living organism.

 

When deprived from oxygen, cells (businesses) start to die at an impressive rate.

 

You can reanimate it, sometimes, but the damage has been done, often irreversible.

 

The millions that have lost their jobs overnight will not get their jobs back overnight.

 

It will take months, or more.

 

Many of the small businesses that have been forced to shut down will never reopen.

 

This is not a "short term disruption" but a long term disaster, and the number of suicides linked to this disaster will probably far exceed the number of deaths by virus.

 

As for the economy, it will never be its former self...just look at Japan after 1990...and that is a best case scenario...

 

I share these dire concerns about what is happening to the people who own businesses.

 

Every day that the social distancing isolation extremism continues is another day that makes it worse.

 

It is to he hoped the US show leadership and Trump manages to get the US running quickly. Then others will follow. Everyone is still too scared.

[Greenside]

The offGuardian website is a known purveyor of very biased stories presented as news.  Treat it all with skepticism. https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/offguardian/

Edited March 27, 2020 by Greenside

[Logosone]

7 minutes ago, Greenside said:

The offGuardian website is a known purveyor of very biased stories presented as news.  Treat it all with skepticism. 

 

Their quotes all checked out, they gave the source, papers like the Washington Post, New York Times.

 

It's very easy to check. If you bother to do so, like I did, you will find that not only were the statements they quoted absolutely accurate but also well presented. Unless you also believe that the Washington Post, the New York Times, Stanford etc are all in on the conspiracy to misrepresent scientific views?

 

Attempts to discredit these statements by eminent scientists are firmly rejected.

 

Perfectly valid source.

Edited March 27, 2020 by Logosone

[tomster]

11 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

Rubbish. We are only a few months into this, and we already see the devastating impact on the population as  thousands fight for their lives on respirators. We  see the significantly higher rate of death and you dismiss this as no worse than the flu. You are not even making an intelligent comparison, because you look at seasonal flu  which has a mortality calculation based upon multiple strains over multiple years vs. the Covid 19 pandemic at 3 months.  It is infuriating when sudden catastrophic incidents are tossed out to  diminish the impact of a deadly infection. A stadium catastrophe is avoidable and preventable. It is not a continuing event. A deadly infection continues. Your attempt to  make a comparison defies logic and is invalid.  You talk of death peaks as if you understand the impact of a deadly respiratory illness. Well, you do not. For a significant number of patients, including the young, a respiratory illness leaves long term damage in the lungs and leaves the patient susceptible to future infections and other diseases. That is a medical fact. 

 

The disconnect is that some people do not appreciate that a respiratory infection can persist. Unless stopped, it returns to ravage the population.  there is no demonstrable long term immunity, which means that if a person  was infected once, that person can be infected again. If left with lung damage from a  previous infection, that patient will most die with the next infection. Lungs need time to heal.  Yes, many people have lost their employment, but better a short term disruption than their death or long term disability. Some people want an immediate solution. It can't happen. All we can do is  wait this out. Another month or two of short term pain for long term  gain. Westerners are too focused on short term gains and not the long term. This is where China has the world beat. China plans for 10 years, 20 years, another generation in the future. The US driven mentality is to have a profit a gain now. That doesn't work with  deadly diseases.

 

 

The figures now point to this being very much to this Coronavirus being in the same mortality rate zone as flu, lots of data coming out that with the notable exception of one region of Italy, it will actually be less deadly than average flu as more widespread testing for it kicks in and identifies the section of the population that were asymptomatically infected:

 

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

 

For this to to have "devastating impact" it needs to kill significantly more people than would normally die of viral pneumonia per year. So far that is not happening, there is not one bit of data anywhere that implies that the overall death rate for the general population is being affected by this strain of coronavirus.

 

Closest I can find is the European morbidity watch website, which is showing absolutely no change at all whilst the "pandemic rages" in Europe:

https://www.euromomo.eu/

 

Once you have had the virus you may or may not get immunity, mostly with Coronavirus you will:

 

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24532754-600-can-you-catch-the-coronavirus-twice-we-dont-know-yet/

 

It will only return if the RO rate stays above 1, or if it mutates like flu does. But even with a virus that mutates 17 times per year as with Flu, if you get it once you likely won't get it again in the same year. By next year there will be a vaccine, trails from multiple sources are underway.
 

Opinions are fine, but please check your facts before posting otherwise you spread fear that nobody needs in their lives.

[tomster]

8 minutes ago, Greenside said:

The offGuardian website is a known purveyor of very biased stories presented as news.  Treat it all with skepticism. https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/offguardian/

Yeah you should stick with the real Guardian website, no biased news on that one...

[Brunolem]

Observers will note that the countries imposing the strictest restrictions on their populations (Italy, Spain, France...) are also those with the worst results regarding the number of infections and deaths. 

 

[tomster]

2 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Observers will note that the countries imposing the strictest restrictions on their populations (Italy, Spain, France...) are also those with the worst results regarding the number of infections and deaths. 

 

That.

[Brunolem]

12 minutes ago, Greenside said:

The offGuardian website is a known purveyor of very biased stories presented as news.  Treat it all with skepticism. https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/offguardian/

Ad Hominem is a usual tactic for those who lack arguments. 

 

If they can't discredit the message, then they try to discredit the messenger. 

[Logosone]

8 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Observers will note that the countries imposing the strictest restrictions on their populations (Italy, Spain, France...) are also those with the worst results regarding the number of infections and deaths. 

 

 

Exactly, it's a kink in the social-distancing religion.

 

If social distancing works so great how come those who practice the extremest forms of it have such terrible results, whereas countries with the most relaxed regime have good figures.

 

Of course the social-distancing believers, like all believers, will cling firmly to their religion and tell you 'ah but you are not giving it enough time.'

 

This was also the case with a UFO religion, the Seekers. They believed that eventually a mothership would come. They, unlike the social distancing believers, had a firm date, 21 December 1954. When the spaceship didn't come on 21 December, they all said 'Ah you're not giving it enough time, it will come on 24th December'....that's belief. Belief kicks in when people do not know. Social distancing is a belief. Nothing more.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Seekers_(rapturists)

 

[FarFlungFalang]

39 minutes ago, Greenside said:

The offGuardian website is a known purveyor of very biased stories presented as news.  Treat it all with skepticism. https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/offguardian/

The video was not made by that website it merely posted the vidoe there,so that doesn't invalidate the actual video or the information contained in the video.

[Brunolem]

15 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

Exactly, it's a kink in the social-distancing religion.

 

If social distancing works so great how come those who practice the extremest forms of it have such terrible results, whereas countries with the most relaxed regime have good figures.

 

 

 

I think that most populations were already massively (over 50%) infected BEFORE the lockdowns. 

 

Therefore the virus keeps on working indoors instead of outdoors. 

 

For lockdowns to work, they should have been put into place early February at the latest. 

 

[Brunolem]

Some welcome humor... 

 

https://www.unz.com/chopkins/the-war-on-death/

 

 

[FarFlungFalang]

9 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Some welcome humor... 

 

https://www.unz.com/chopkins/the-war-on-death/

 

 

The truth can be funny sometimes funny and scary!

[Logosone]

14 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Some welcome humor... 

 

https://www.unz.com/chopkins/the-war-on-death/

 

 

The Coronapocalypse, priceless.

 

Indeed the Mass Hysteria machine is in overdrive. From Mask Nazis to Social Distancing rapturists, little power trippers everywhere are having the time of their little lives.

[Logosone]

27 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

I think that most populations were already massively (over 50%) infected BEFORE the lockdowns. 

 

Therefore the virus keeps on working indoors instead of outdoors. 

 

For lockdowns to work, they should have been put into place early February at the latest. 

 

That is definitely what the latest data is showing.

 

So kids and young people out and about have to return home to live with their parents. Infections happen when there were none.

 

We can no longer isolate from the virus. That ship has sailed. It could have been done in January, but our governments did nothing.

 

Now the best we can hope for is for herd immunity to come as soon as possible.

 

 

[Logosone]

Turns out the author of the model which caused the UK to go into full on social distancing rapture has quietly revised his figures, no apology. Now predicts much less deaths, less than 20,000 in UK:

 

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/26/the-scientist-whose-doomsday-pandemic-model-predicted-armageddon-just-walked-back-the-apocalyptic-predictions/

[FarFlungFalang]

Found this on another thread.An interesting flip flop from one of the orininators of the hysteria.

 

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/26/the-scientist-whose-doomsday-pandemic-model-predicted-armageddon-just-walked-back-the-apocalyptic-predictions/

[Brunolem]

38 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

Now the best we can hope for is for herd immunity to come as soon as possible.

 

 

It probably was here from the start.

 

The fact that China had so little registered cases in such overcrowded cities was for lack of testing power.

 

A test of the whole population, impossible in practice, would have revealed millions of infected persons, the vast majority of them unaware of it, because having no symptoms.

 

And the mortality rate would have dropped considerably...

 

Now the economy has been destroyed.

 

Once again: act first, think later...

[Logosone]

Yes the data from the blessed island of Iceland which has decided to do mass testing of its entire population seems to show that 50% of Covid19 infected show no symptoms.

 

So half the population, if all were infected, would already be immune to the effects of the Covid19 virus.

 

The clean-up of this mess which the politicians around the world have caused by their late, excessive and disastrous policies will be a monumental project. Possibly far greater than the fight of Covid19.

[Brunolem]

25 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Yes the data from the blessed island of Iceland which has decided to do mass testing of its entire population seems to show that 50% of Covid19 infected show no symptoms.

 

So half the population, if all were infected, would already be immune to the effects of the Covid19 virus.

 

The clean-up of this mess which the politicians around the world have caused by their late, excessive and disastrous policies will be a monumental project. Possibly far greater than the fight of Covid19.

If 50% is infected with no symptoms, it confirms that the real death rate is far below the numbers published everywhere.

 

As for cleaning up the mess, keep an eye on what Pompeo is doing these days...turning up the heat on Iran and Venezuela, in order to later mobilize the troops and focus the populace on other issues than its misery.

 

Also keep in mind that both Pompeo and Pence are fervent believers in the rapture!

 

[Logosone]

Here is a paper from another thread, where analysis of the effect of travel in China in terms of Covid19 is done.

 

Looks like isolating an entire city bought 3 days.

 

Travel restrictions were useful at the start, but not when the virus had spread already (our situation)

 

Moreover increased testing is another way to explain the successes of containment, rather than travel restrictions.

 

Desperately asks for more data, because there is none. So all the social isolation we are doing is being done on minimal data, just on a hunch...

 

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/25/science.abb4218

Edited March 27, 2020 by Logosone

[Logosone]

The US govt must know what they are doing through printing money....they are slowly destroying their own currency and its purchasing power. The strength of the USD Is based on the strength of the US economy. The Fed tries to influence the supply of money in the economy to promote noninflationary growth. Unless there is an increase in economic activity commensurate with the amount of money that is created, printing money to pay off the debt would make inflation worse....With a huge recession just ahead due to the perfect storm of $4T stimulus, out-of-control-debt, historic job loss and Covid-19, the US economy is in for a crash landing in the near future.

 

Let's hope they don't distract from it with war.

[Brunolem]

46 minutes ago, Logosone said:

The US govt must know what they are doing through printing money....they are slowly destroying their own currency and its purchasing power. The strength of the USD Is based on the strength of the US economy. The Fed tries to influence the supply of money in the economy to promote noninflationary growth. Unless there is an increase in economic activity commensurate with the amount of money that is created, printing money to pay off the debt would make inflation worse....With a huge recession just ahead due to the perfect storm of $4T stimulus, out-of-control-debt, historic job loss and Covid-19, the US economy is in for a crash landing in the near future.

 

Let's hope they don't distract from it with war.

On the other hand, now is the perfect time to unleash high inflation, through massive money creation, with the objective of reducing the giant mountain of debt.

 

Anyway, with the amount of debt (before + new one) it carries, the US economy can go nowhere.

 

Again see Japan for a reference...

[Monomial]

5 hours ago, Logosone said:

That's actually a very good point. We need to look at the global economic conditions. In the 1950s and 1960s the world was in economic boom conditions. So when Germany rebuilt from scratch it was helped by boom times around the world. When East Germany was assimilated of course many equally predicted a resurgence of East Germany. It never happened to that degree because East Germany did not benefit from a booming world economy.

 

So just because after the Spanish Flu boom times followed that is no guarantee this will follow after Covid19. It may have had more to do with WW1.

 

The global economic conditions are indeed different today. Good point.

 

At least after WWII, the rapid improvement in the economy was in large part due to the fact that the wealth imbalance was corrected during the war. The great depression had left the wealth imbalance nearly as large as it is today. The war essentially destroyed the existing economy. Normal investments in companies were weakened due to lack of resources and changing consumer behavior during the war, while at the same time money poured into the working class, with most of the wealthy investor class seeing their relative fortunes shrink.  These 2 factors reduced the wealth gap during the war, so that by the end of it the economy was once again reset in a way that allowed it to move forward.

 

This virus could do the same thing, but only if the governments of the world are willing to push the costs of it to the investor class. So far, I haven't seen them give any indication they are willing to do that. What I have seen are talks of corporate bailouts to make sure the system doesn't collapse. Holding that huge wealth disparity in place basically means that the economy will not be allowed to do what is necessary in order to create conditions necessary for a recovery.  Averages are irrelevant here. It is the specific distribution of money in the hands of people ready to consume (not invest) that results in recovery.  And let's be clear. Debt is not the same as money, even if economists maintain that it is.

 

I don't hold much hope that we are in for a better future after this is over. I haven't seen any indications of economic policies that would facilitate this.

[FarFlungFalang]

Some light relief.

 

 

[Logosone]

2 hours ago, Monomial said:

 

At least after WWII, the rapid improvement in the economy was in large part due to the fact that the wealth imbalance was corrected during the war. The great depression had left the wealth imbalance nearly as large as it is today. The war essentially destroyed the existing economy. Normal investments in companies were weakened due to lack of resources and changing consumer behavior during the war, while at the same time money poured into the working class, with most of the wealthy investor class seeing their relative fortunes shrink.  These 2 factors reduced the wealth gap during the war, so that by the end of it the economy was once again reset in a way that allowed it to move forward.

 

This virus could do the same thing, but only if the governments of the world are willing to push the costs of it to the investor class. So far, I haven't seen them give any indication they are willing to do that. What I have seen are talks of corporate bailouts to make sure the system doesn't collapse. Holding that huge wealth disparity in place basically means that the economy will not be allowed to do what is necessary in order to create conditions necessary for a recovery.  Averages are irrelevant here. It is the specific distribution of money in the hands of people ready to consume (not invest) that results in recovery.  And let's be clear. Debt is not the same as money, even if economists maintain that it is.

 

I don't hold much hope that we are in for a better future after this is over. I haven't seen any indications of economic policies that would facilitate this.

I agree, purchasing power of the consumer makes a key difference.

 

The thing is things have changed in another way since WWII. Our systems are different.

 

We basically now have a quasi-socialist system, with most people living off the state, ie either working for the state services or getting state benefits. With an adjunct capital system to keep these many people going.

 

The redistribution has been going on for decades now, from the business owners, large and small, investors big and small into the coffers of the state. It is well known that you work until July 1st for the state and only thereafter for yourself. This applies across the world, US, UK, Germany, Japan, except tax havens of course (they get you via indirect taxation if you live there).

 

When we talk about the loss of shared prosperity that is largely due to the fact that since the 1950s those earning more could really earn a lot more than low income earners. So it was a reflection of the success of the boom economies. It is true that income disparity arises out of increased wealth. How could it not? And incomes have doubled for pretty much everyone at least since the 1950s.

 

So the curious thing is why has there not been a two decade boom period when the 1960s ended? Everyone was earning more and could buy more. Because a bubble probably follows the boom and destroys it.

 

https://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/a-guide-to-statistics-on-historical-trends-in-income-inequality

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by Logosone

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

 

So the curious thing is why has there not been a two decade boom period when the 1960s ended? Everyone was earning more and could buy more. Because a bubble probably follows the boom and destroys it.

 

https://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/a-guide-to-statistics-on-historical-trends-in-income-inequality

 

 

 

 

 

Because during the 60s the government embarked in high spending programs (Vietnam war, great society), which ultimately led Nixon to sever the tie between the dollar and gold in August 1971.

 

This was followed by a decade of high inflation, then by a massive recession in the early 80s.