Restrictions On Foreigners' Voting Rights Relaxed

[Arkady]

Point 1 is that in intervening against an appreciating baht the BoT has a huge advantage because it can print baht to sell in exchange for dollars and therefore cause massive losses to foreign speculators who have to scrabble around for limited amounts of baht available in the offshore market. This is another reason why the capital controls were mind boggling. Dealing with a declining baht in the market is much harder because they can only international reserves to sell in exchange for buy baht back. That's why the BoT lost nearly its foreign reserves in 1997. Printing money for intervention in the fx markets does not necessarily cause inflation because it is a short sharp shock tactic. It is not the same as deliberately printing money to fund fiscal incontinence or monetize government debt as happened in Western countries in the 80s. This goes on over a long period of time and the numbers are much greater.

How's that a short sharp tactic, when you don't really know much Baht you need to inject into the market to weaken the currency and you don't know how long the whole process will take either? You know that?

Point 2 is that Thailand's manufactured exports have been dependent on investment to move to higher value added, since they can no longer compete on labour intensive products. Depreciating the currency would help but things have changed since 1997. The Chinese government has invested billions to build modern infrastructure and promote industry throughout the country. Their currency has not appreciated much vs the dollar yet, so they are unassailable on labour intensive manufactures. Now they are attracting such huge amounts of foreign investment that it becomes harder and harder to compete with them on higher value added manufactures. Vietnam is now following suit. Remember that the 1997 devaluation of the baht was around 40%. A devaluation of that size causes massive dislocation in other sectors and is not something that Thailand should crave at all. A smaller devaluation of say 10% would give a temporary boost to exports but might anyway be followed by countries like Indonesia. At the end of day moving up the value added ladder in exports is crucial to maintaining market share and this is an investment intensive business. Right now investment is not happening and that is contributing to the strength of the baht. The other huge problem facing Thai exports is lack of government investment in education. With such a poor educational system, compared to Korea and Taiwan, how will Thais be able to work in higher value added industries, even if they get the investment? Thai export performance recently has been distorted by the strong revival of agricultural exports due to strong commodity prices. In the BoT numbers there is a discernable shift of workers back to agriculture and away from other industries. If you strip out the effect of agricultural exports which can quickly go into decline, as they did in the 80s, sustainable growth of Thai exports doesn't look nearly as promising. Anyway just depreciating the currency without addressing crucial structural problems in the export sector is not the quick fix that Thai policy formulators would like people to believe.

This part still doesn't make much sense to me. First you claim that Thailand can no longer compete on labour intensive products, then you said there's a strong revival of agricultural exports which basically are labour intensive.

Also, I wasn't saying that Baht depreciation will be the cure for all. That's obviously absurd. I was just saying that your earlier claims that Thailand will be basically screwed either if Baht appreciates or depreciates just doesn't make much sense. To claim that Thai exports will still go into a decline even if their prices will become more competive thanks to weaker Baht is just absurd to me. That's my whole point. I wasn't saying that it's the cure for all. You also failed to take into account the facts that Thailand also has realized the importance of R&D to shift their economy from being labour intensive to skill intensive to technology intensive and so on, and has tried to address the issue with the establishments of Science National Parks (look at one of my recent threads.) To suggest that Thai will never be able to compete is just absurd. There's still a long way to go before Vietnam can even catch up with Thailand (for another 15 years at least.) Also the business climate is always changing. There's always opportunities for new products, technologies and types of goods. There's so much variety that not a single country (even the USA) can dominate the world in every sector of business. And that's where the oppotunities lie for every country in this world. Sure Thailand is having some serious problems with the education system right now. But it's downright stupid to beleive that it will stay this way forever. Right now Thailand has the tenth most number of international students in the US at about 10,000. And these people will come back and be the drive for the changes in Thailand. It's not as hopeless as you believe.

Still printing currency for fx intervention is very different from using the printing press as monetary policy. The excess currency can be sterilised through bond issues to neutralise its effect on monetary growth which is not possible in the latter case. In fact Thailand has been doing this to a certain extent for several years.

I meant labour intensive manufactures. The problems in the Thai educational system have been there for over a generation. Hopefully they will not stay for ever but given the lack of will of politicians to grasp the nettle they look like staying for at least another generation. 10,000 rich kids studying MBAs straight after their bachelors degrees at second and third string colleges in the US that use foreign MBA fees to subsidise their bachelors degree courses is not going to fix the problem. Thailand needs millions of better educated workers. Thai politicians and bureaucrats see education as a piggy bank and the elite, including the "popularist" Thaksin don't really want the ordinarly people to become too well educated so that they will demand better wages, rule of law and human rights. Science Parks etc will of course all help but driving out foreign investors run counter to the value added R & D theme I don't see a real will to deal with education. Vietnam will indeed take some time to catch up but when it does, the Thais won't even see the blur going past them. I remember Thais chuckling about the prospect of Vietnamese rice exports competing with them in the early 90s. Now it has modern milling equipment and is a very serious competitor.

[ThaiGoon]

Still printing currency for fx intervention is very different from using the printing press as monetary policy. The excess currency can be sterilised through bond issues to neutralise its effect on monetary growth which is not possible in the latter case. In fact Thailand has been doing this to a certain extent for several years.

I meant labour intensive manufactures. The problems in the Thai educational system have been there for over a generation. Hopefully they will not stay for ever but given the lack of will of politicians to grasp the nettle they look like staying for at least another generation. 10,000 rich kids studying MBAs straight after their bachelors degrees at second and third string colleges in the US that use foreign MBA fees to subsidise their bachelors degree courses is not going to fix the problem. Thailand needs millions of better educated workers. Thai politicians and bureaucrats see education as a piggy bank and the elite, including the "popularist" Thaksin don't really want the ordinarly people to become too well educated so that they will demand better wages, rule of law and human rights. Science Parks etc will of course all help but driving out foreign investors run counter to the value added R & D theme I don't see a real will to deal with education. Vietnam will indeed take some time to catch up but when it does, the Thais won't even see the blur going past them. I remember Thais chuckling about the prospect of Vietnamese rice exports competing with them in the early 90s. Now it has modern milling equipment and is a very serious competitor.

The last time I checked, Thai rice export still outnumbers Vietnam by about 4 or 3 to 1.

And it's pretty ignorant to say this: "10,000 rich kids studying MBAs straight after their bachelors degrees at second and third string colleges in the US that use foreign MBA fees to subsidise their bachelors degree courses is not going to fix the problem." Go to any top 50 colleges in America (from MIT to Stanford to Harvard), you will see Thai students at every level. No offense, but you must be quite ignorant, pompous and stupid to have said that.

And I'm not gonna waste my time argueing about one of your conspiracy theories.

Edited April 13, 2007 by ThaiGoon

[ThaiGoon]

Correction: As of 2006: Thai exported about 7.5 million tons of rice, Vietnam's was about 5 million.

But Thailand is expectd to expand the lead in 2007 according to USDA:

http://www.fas.usda.gov/grain/circular/200...07/graintoc.htm

Global Rice Trade in 2007: Thailand to Expand Lead as World’s Largest Exporter

World rice supplies are expected to be tight in 2007, but despite this ample supplies in Thailand will allow it to widen its lead as the world’s largest exporter.

Edited April 13, 2007 by ThaiGoon

[Dakhar]

Yep,

And I would bet that most of those Thai kids are in the US studying via scholarships paid for by tax dollars, paid by lowly inept falangs. Then after they graduate, the run back home and show their appreciation to those falangs by pounding out zenophobic propaganda on some web site.

Yep, those years in the states scar them for life.

[ThaiGoon]

Yep,

And I would bet that most of those Thai kids are in the US studying via scholarships paid for by tax dollars, paid by lowly inept falangs. Then after they graduate, the run back home and show their appreciation to those falangs by pounding out zenophobic propaganda on some web site.

Yep, those years in the states scar them for life.

Not sure what you are on about, but Thai students in the US are either selffunded or getting scholarships from the Thai gov't. The grad students who are getting paid by their schools, are doing so because they are working as either teaching assistants or research assistants. It's never a free lunch.

[ThaiGoon]

Yep,

And I would bet that most of those Thai kids are in the US studying via scholarships paid for by tax dollars, paid by lowly inept falangs. Then after they graduate, the run back home and show their appreciation to those falangs by pounding out zenophobic propaganda on some web site.

Yep, those years in the states scar them for life.

Another thing I'd like to add is that it's pretty hard for Thais, either educated in Thailand or in the US, to appreciate a farang who gloated over his Thai g/f and his girth on an internet forum.

[kuma]

Yep,

And I would bet that most of those Thai kids are in the US studying via scholarships paid for by tax dollars, paid by lowly inept falangs. Then after they graduate, the run back home and show their appreciation to those falangs by pounding out zenophobic propaganda on some web site.

Yep, those years in the states scar them for life.

Another thing I'd like to add is that it's pretty hard for Thais, either educated in Thailand or in the US, to appreciate a farang who gloated over his Thai g/f and his girth on an internet forum.

There is certainly a lot of interesting and sometimes colourful banter on this thread but I do feel for ThaiGoon who is trying to rightly defend his country - but on this forum he is having to do most of the heavy lifting himself and against large numbers of combatants, it has to be tiring not to mention a huge consumer of his personal time.

Thailand can decide as a nation to do what it deems is necessary for its own benefit (within the boundaries of the laws/treaties it has committed to) and of course all should have the opportunity to voice their opinions about their choices (by and large it seems that is possible - at least here!) and one would hope that their decision makers solicit input from a wide variety of sources (Thai and foreign) that help them with making/adjusting/evolving/reversing decisions/policies - as is the case in most areas of human endeavour that is progressive.

Nations today (like always) are engaging in behaviour like; starting wars that are of dubious merit/supressing portions of their populations on the basis of ethnicity, religion, political beleifs, etc etc/ developing themselves with little regard to longer term impacts of their decisions to thier future well being/ and so on and on.....it is not only Thailand that engages in activities that other people find ill conceived - but I concede that this is the topic of this thread, or it is what has become the focus of it anyway.

As a nation I suspect Thailand should be trying to do what we are all (?) trying to do, be a little bit better tomorrow than we are today - whatever that definition of better might be (hopefully it is a decent version of better that tries to improve the lot of all the people of Thailand, but that is also for them to decide at this point in history). Some who are disenfranchised here (and some who are franchised) do get hurt in the process but that is the same everywhere, always. If at the end of the day it turns out the choices they make are for the better - great. If not hopefully they can do what is needed to adjust.

I find many things here frustrating, but I find many things frustrating at home as well. I think Thailand is doing ok. It has a lot of challenges (as all countries do) and some are going to be VERY difficult to remedy but all they can do is keep on trying.

Also I happen to think the point made earlier about the impact that the return of thousands of students (and potential future leaders) from overseas study is a great one. Thais who have had the opportunity to go and see and learn how other countries do some things right, and wrong, with the resources they have been bequeathed will come beack here and add to the pool of understanding of what Thailand needs to do to make Thailand a better place for its people.

[TAWP]

ThaiGoon might have a better chance defending the country or getting more posters on his side if he refrained from trying to paint everyone living here with the same bright whore-visiting colors.

[Dakhar]

Yep,

And I would bet that most of those Thai kids are in the US studying via scholarships paid for by tax dollars, paid by lowly inept falangs. Then after they graduate, the run back home and show their appreciation to those falangs by pounding out zenophobic propaganda on some web site.

Yep, those years in the states scar them for life.

Another thing I'd like to add is that it's pretty hard for Thais, either educated in Thailand or in the US, to appreciate a farang who gloated over his Thai g/f and his girth on an internet forum.

I can't help it about my girth, I was born that way, just as I imagine you were too. I never gloated about my girlfriend. I spoke about my wealthy, white skined, Mastered degree'd, fluent in English wife. (which under your standards makes her a keeper) As for me, I was just looking for a big hearted woman. Sorry one less keeper for Thailand and it was purely accidental, I had no idea I was stealing from your natural resouces. But I would like to extend my belated appreciation.... welp, I best go upstairs and extend it again.

[Dakhar]

Yep,

And I would bet that most of those Thai kids are in the US studying via scholarships paid for by tax dollars, paid by lowly inept falangs. Then after they graduate, the run back home and show their appreciation to those falangs by pounding out zenophobic propaganda on some web site.

Yep, those years in the states scar them for life.

Not sure what you are on about, but Thai students in the US are either selffunded or getting scholarships from the Thai gov't. The grad students who are getting paid by their schools, are doing so because they are working as either teaching assistants or research assistants. It's never a free lunch.

Oh that is rich.

Look here ThaiGoon, I can tell you have some measure of intellect. I can't deny it, you do. But here is the thing, you do not know everything, and I can tell you do not know squat about scholarships, and international enrolment etc. I worked at the graduate admissions office at my college. Specifically the international grad adm. depart, handelling the Asian students. (mostly, Taiwan and Mainland China) I saw first hand the scholarships being poured out to them, and the bogus research assistant jobs. PPPLEASE, I knew of one prof. getting kick backs from school scout co. that brought in Taiwanese students. The prof would give them scholarships to recruit the students, he would get a kick back from the agency, and they would then have to rent a pig sty from him....

All legalized theft, all done with everyone watching.... mean while, some American kid, gets to work at Wallmart dreaming of one day affording to pay on his own to go to college, because all the scholarships funds had already been distributed to our foreign friends.

Edited April 13, 2007 by Dakhar

[ChiangMaiAmerican]

If there is any doubt about Thailand's willingness to ignore treaties and other agreements this should should settle it. Never mind, Thailand should be the beneficiary of increased exports that come with her membership in the WTO but should not be expected to follow the rules when others want to export to Thailand because THIS IS THAILAND.

From the Bangkok Post:

The Customs and Revenue departments will collaborate in drafting a new minimum price framework for imports, according to Sommai Phasee, the deputy finance minister. Customs officials say that some importers take advantage of loopholes in the system and declare abnormally low CIF charges to minimise their import bill.

http://bangkokpost.com/Business/12Apr2007_biz39.php

What Thailand has agreed to at the WTO:

Article 7

1. If the customs value of the imported goods cannot be determined under the provisions of Articles 1 through 6, inclusive, the customs value shall be determined using reasonable means consistent with the principles and general provisions of this Agreement and of Article VII of GATT 1994 and on the basis of data available in the country of importation.

2. No customs value shall be determined under the provisions of this Article on the basis of:

(a) the selling price in the country of importation of goods produced in such country;

( a system which provides for the acceptance for customs purposes of the higher of two alternative values;

© the price of goods on the domestic market of the country of exportation;

(d) the cost of production other than computed values which have been determined for identical or similar goods in accordance with the provisions of Article 6;

(e) the price of the goods for export to a country other than the country of importation;

(f) minimum customs values; or

(g) arbitrary or fictitious values.

3. If the importer so requests, the importer shall be informed in writing of the customs value determined under the provisions of this Article and the method used to determine such value.

http://www.wto.org/english/docs_e/legal_e/20-val_01_e.htm

Edited April 13, 2007 by ChiangMaiAmerican

[LaoPo]

Also I happen to think the point made earlier about the impact that the return of thousands of students (and potential future leaders) from overseas study is a great one.

Unfortunately that remains to be seen. There are indeed many Thai students abroad. Wether the majority will return to Thailand is an open question.

China has the same problem:

" Statistics from the Ministry of Personnel show that of the 1.07 million students China has sent overseas since 1978, only about a quarter have returned. "

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-04/...ent_5954610.htm

I have no idea or statistics whether the same pattern counts for Thailand as well but once Asian students have finished their scholarship or graduated, I can imagine that many stay abroad for a long(er) time untill they return, whatever the reason....

LaoPo

[ThaiGoon]

ThaiGoon might have a better chance defending the country or getting more posters on his side if he refrained from trying to paint everyone living here with the same bright whore-visiting colors.

I wasn't painting anything (if we were to believe Dakhar):

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...14557&st=45

I don't know, but I think it is the width that bothers them the most. But I could be wrong.

Like the fella said, we have the money, and their women.... ofcourse they will be angry with falangs.

So it is the width... I suspected that all along.

My wife, is porbably one of those Keepers.... M.Ed from the US, fluent English, white skin, wealthy family, large business blah blah blah.... But does all that make her a good person? NOPE it sure does not. But under Thai logic, it does automatically. She has got a sister, if you are interested.... you know pay the proper SinSod and the transaction can be completed quick quick.

And Dakhar, that might have happened at your sad college. But at top colleges, students who get grants from schools do work to get the money. Don't mistake the standard of your woeful institute for the rest. By the way, have you contacted BOI about your plan to build a marina in Thailand yet? Don't forget to tell them about your Thai wife and the girth, they might be impressed with your "intellect" and might even give your more tax benefits.

[ChiangMaiAmerican]

Malaysia 'passes Thailand' in FDI

Though ranked the fourth-easiest country in Asia in which to do business in a 2006 World Bank report, Thailand has seen growing pressure from its neighbours in drawing foreign direct investment (FDI).

According to Bernama, the Malaysian state-run news agency, Thailand last year attracted a lower level of FDI than Malaysia.

The agency quoted International Trade and Industry Parliamentary Secretary Tan Yee Kew as saying Malaysia was second in the Asean FDI ranking, after Singapore.

Last year, Singapore recorded 30.7 billion ringgit (Bt312 billion) in FDI, followed by Malaysia at 20.2 billion ringgit, Thailand at 11.4 billion ringgit and Indonesia at 4.7 billion ringgit.

Following US-based chip-maker Intel's decision to set up a plant in Vietnam despite Thailand being short-listed as a potential site, there have been reports that the Kingdom is losing out FDI to neighbouring countries.

It is evident that in light of unclear economic and political conditions, less FDI has been flowing into the Kingdom.

With a sharp drop in private investment, the Bank of Thailand so far this year has cut the policy interest rate by one percentage point while there are calls for the Finance Ministry to run a steeper budget deficit to spur domestic demand.

Tan said that last year, Malaysia ranked 23rd among 61 countries in "The World Competitiveness Book 2006", an improvement from its 28th placing in 2005.

"According to the World Bank Report 2007, of the 175 countries surveyed, Malaysia maintained its 25th position in terms of ease of doing business in 2006," Tan added.

"It is not fair to compare our country with countries like China, because that is a huge country. Malaysia's FDI ranking is acceptable." Tan said that the approved investment in the country last year was 46 billion ringgit for 1,077 manufacturing projects, compared with 31 billion ringgit in 2005.

"This exceeded the average annual investment target of 27.5 billion ringgit under the Third Industrial Master Plan [iMP3]," she told the agency.

"Investments this year are expected to increase by 7.7 per cent as targeted under IMP3. The ratio of foreign investment to domestic investment is 40:60."

Tan then listed the top 10 FDI source countries and their investment amounts in Malaysia in 2005 and 2006.

They are Japan (8.1 billion ringgit), the United States (7.6 billion ringgit), the Netherlands (5 billion ringgit), Singapore (4.9 billion ringgit), Australia (2.7 billion ringgit), South Korea (1.1 billion ringgit), the Cayman Islands (1 billion ringgit), Taiwan (800 million ringgit), the United Kingdom (700 million ringgit) and the British Virgin Islands (700 million).

She said the sectors targeted for these investments were electric and electronic products; chemicals and chemical products; basic metallic products; non-metallic mineral products; food; plastic products; measuring and scientific instruments; and machinery and equipment.

http://nationmultimedia.com/2007/04/14/bus...ss_30031856.php

Any surprise?

When the new and improved foreign business act and other anti-foreign regulations become law Thailand will fall even further behind. Next to go tourism. Word of Thailand's xenophobia continues to spread. Major western news outlets and business publications continue to report on the changes to the foreign business act. Most recently they reported on the increased criminal penalties and the removal of the amenesty provisions after the latest draft was approved. They even talk about how foreign business were steered by Thai attorneys inot using the structures that the new and improved foreign business act covers. No mention is made of any severe penalties for the Thai attorneys who set up these structures and told the foreigners they were legal. After all, the attorneys are Thai and must e protected. Only the foreigner faces severe punishment. Doesn't do much for Thailand's reputation. Most foreign travelers are offended by xenophobia and will likely take their money elsewhere. Watch what happens when the government starts prosecuting retirees under the modified foreign business act and confiscating their homes using the 5 million baht penalty. Won't be pretty.

Edited April 13, 2007 by ChiangMaiAmerican

[Dakhar]

ThaiGoon might have a better chance defending the country or getting more posters on his side if he refrained from trying to paint everyone living here with the same bright whore-visiting colors.

I wasn't painting anything (if we were to believe Dakhar):

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...14557&st=45

I don't know, but I think it is the width that bothers them the most. But I could be wrong.

Like the fella said, we have the money, and their women.... ofcourse they will be angry with falangs.

So it is the width... I suspected that all along.

My wife, is porbably one of those Keepers.... M.Ed from the US, fluent English, white skin, wealthy family, large business blah blah blah.... But does all that make her a good person? NOPE it sure does not. But under Thai logic, it does automatically. She has got a sister, if you are interested.... you know pay the proper SinSod and the transaction can be completed quick quick.

And Dakhar, that might have happened at your sad college. But at top colleges, students who get grants from schools do work to get the money. Don't mistake the standard of your woeful institute for the rest. By the way, have you contacted BOI about your plan to build a marina in Thailand yet? Don't forget to tell them about your Thai wife and the girth, they might be impressed with your "intellect" and might even give your more tax benefits.

My college may have been sad, my intire education was by comparrison probably pretty darn sad... But what I did with what little I had, was simply amazing from my stand point. I have had a good life, grew up playing in the woods, I got to hunt and fish, build log cabins... I have no regrets. My high school didn't even have enough text books to go around, so we could not take our books home.

But, eventually, this hick ended up making 6 figures in the US.... and yea, that would be in USD. Which then allowed me to come to Thailand a bit early in life. I originally wanted to "retire" early. But the Thia govt. wants to make sure that even those that can afford to, can not do so unless they are over 50. So I get to work... Lucky me. Oh and no I don't teach English, I would consider that a criminal act if I did!

So Thaigoon, you can disbelieve me if you would like regarding my wife. Like I said, I just wanted a big hearted woman, I am not concerned about skin tone, financial back ground etc. All that is just surface stuff, and if you marry for money, you will pay for it in the long run. I hope one day a Thai girl up to your standards will stumble upon you, or your hammock and notice you too.

[LaoPo]

I didn' want to start another topic on Thailands' economics, so I post this here:

Thailand economic monitor, April 2007

From the World Bank:

Abstract: This April 2007 issue of the Thailand Economic Monitor provides and overview of economic developments, a section on recovery and outlook, and a section on implementation of structural reforms. The paper observes that growth is slower in recent years. GDP grew by 5 percent in 2006, modestly better than 4.5 percent in 2005, but is projected to fall to 4.3 percent in 2007, driven mainly by exports. Average, annual GDP growth rate of 4.6 percent during 2005-07 will be nearly 1.5 percentage points below Thailand's own annual average during 2002-04. This slowdown is in part because the easy gains from increased utilization of excess capacity have been exhausted and in part because new capacity is expanding slowly as confidence of investors are at a low point. Some recent initiatives however give cause for hope that this will turn around starting in 2008.

http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/defa...heSitePK=523679

If someone is interested in the full details of the World Bank's Report (in PDF, 62 pages, Official Version) you may wish to download it here:

http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/defa...il01PUBLIC1.pdf

"....cause for hope......starting in 2008"

But, better 'cause for hope', than no hope at all, right ?

LaoPo

Edited April 14, 2007 by LaoPo

[Dakhar]

BTW a marina is a good idea. Boaters are underserved in Thailand. Boating is very expensive, so by the sport/life style alone the marina business in culling those with money so the target market is easily hit. Marinas can suppot entire towns, create jobs etc.

I bet in a day, a person could find 10 falangs wanting a marina, and all 10 would be willing to drop 100K USD for investment funding.... but none of the 10 would be willing to invest in Thailand because of the many reasons mentioned in this thread.

I feel sorry for the boat manufacturers in Thailand. They can build you a custom boat, but a customer will not have a place to park it. So then the mfg. are now being strangled by the lack of marinas. No one wants to drop 100K plus on a boat that can not be parked in a marina. Or at least I would not.

Thailand would be a prime market to develop in the boating area. One of the reasons is because the ocean floor drops extremely fast, in other words, as we said back home, the water gets deep fast. This would mean less fuel costs, because you do not have to go out too far to reach the bigger fish. Back where I grew up, one would have to go out 50-70 miles before the water got deep enough to catch the larger fish.

(Thaigoon, run quick and find out the gas mileage on a boat) A good boat would give about 2 mpg and with the cost of gas today.... folks only want to be in quick deep water. That is one of the big reasons Thailand would be a great place for marina development.

But hey, don't listen to a hick falang, Pattaya only needs one marina.

[Dakhar]

Correction: As of 2006: Thai exported about 7.5 million tons of rice, Vietnam's was about 5 million.

But Thailand is expectd to expand the lead in 2007 according to USDA:

http://www.fas.usda.gov/grain/circular/200...07/graintoc.htm

Global Rice Trade in 2007: Thailand to Expand Lead as World’s Largest Exporter

World rice supplies are expected to be tight in 2007, but despite this ample supplies in Thailand will allow it to widen its lead as the world’s largest exporter.

Still bragging about rice. These figures could be looked at a different way..... Those other nations reliazed there was little value in such a market compared to other markets, and invested more time and energy in more profitable areas, other than Rice. Maybe that is why those other nations are all picked by the World Bank to have higher growth than Thailand.

I could be theoritically the largest exporter in the world in toe nail clippings. But if no one cares to compete, it is an easy tittle to hold.

Either way you slice it or spin it, the World Bank placed Thailand at the back of the bus.

[ChiangMaiAmerican]

Vietnam may export 5mil tonnes of rice this year17:11' 12/04/2007 (GMT+7) VietNamNet Bridge – Truong Thanh Phong, Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association (Vietfood) is optimistic about rice output and exports of Vietnam this year, saying that the export volume may reach 5mil tonnes.

According to Mr Phong, the yield of the winter-spring crop has reportedly reached 9.2-9.3mil tonnes, exceeding the targeted plan. Moreover, the quality of rice has improved, and the price is increasing.

How do you assess the domestic and export markets at this moment, after considering rice exports so far this year?

Now I can say that the rice yield of the winter-spring crop is very satisfactory, far exceeding the targeted plan of 8.8mil tonnes. The quality is very good.

As Vietfood has forecast, enterprises will be able to export 2.5mil tonnes of rice in the first half of the year. We have signed contracts to export 3.5mil tonnes of rice, 3mil tonnes of which will be delivered in the first six months, while the other 500,000 tonnes will be delivered between now and September.

Regarding consumption, there are more buyers than sellers. The export price of Vietnam-sourced rice is $40/tonne higher than it was at this time last year. Vietnam-sourced high-grade rice, the 5% broken rice, is being exported at the same price level as in Thailand, at over $600/tonne.

What advice will you give to farmers and rice exporters?

Big rice exporters in the world all are not capable of raising their outputs to raise exports, while the demand is estimated to increase considerably. Especially, Indonesia will import a big volume of rice this year. Therefore, the sellers, not the buyers, will decide the prices.

Vietfood intends to sell some more types of high-grade rice, the 5% broken rice, while it would not encourage enterprises to sell low-grade rice any more. High-grade rice will go for a much better price.

Moreover, since the beginning of the year, enterprises have signed many contracts on exporting medium-grade and low-grade rice; therefore, we do not need to sign similar contracts any more, and the prices proved to be relatively good.

Vietfood has also advised enterprises not to hastily sell rice at low prices, but only sell when the prices are acceptable.

According to a newly conducted survey by Vietfood, farmers have had bumper crops this year and gotten high profit. This is the sixth consecutive year Vietnamese farmers have had a good crop and sold at high prices. The survey has shown that the production cost is at VND1,200/kg, while farmers can sell paddies at VND2,600/kg, which means they can make two-fold profit.

You have said that rice exports are very encouraging for this year. However, rice harvesting and processing seem to remain a big problem.

You are right. Vietnamese farmers have got used to a small scale of production so they don't know what to do with a big scale of agricultural production.

For example, we are lacking manpower for harvesting crops as we have not totally mechanised agricultural production. Paddies need to be dried, while not every farmer household has dryer. I think in the future, farmers should gather together in big organisations, and the most ideal model is the cooperative.

You have emphasized the important role of association and the need to organise rice production on a large scale. Could you please give more details about these issues?

In fact, rice exports have been liberalised for many years, and we are not too worried about the joining of the WTO. However, we have to get ready for the tax cuts on farm produce under the set roadmap.

By 2010, Vietnam will absolutely cut taxes on imported farm produce, and Vietnamese enterprises have to reinforce their production bases, upgrade processing and preservation workshops to get ready for the market opening.

Vietnamese enterprises will also need to seek ways to sell rice directly to foreign buyers, instead of selling through intermediaries as nowadays. In order to reach that end, we need a powerful association.

http://english.vietnamnet.vn/biz/2007/04/684090/

If what is said here is policy, and it Vietnam if it is in the media it is likely policy, large scale farms and mechanized production is coming. When that happens Thailand will be left in the dust unless there are major policy changes. Small scale farmers, except for organic farmers have disappeared in deveeloped countries. Vietnam has apparently noticed this and appears to be planning to enhance her competitiveness by adopting modern methods. Vietnam appears to be committed to opening her markets which will mean change for her farmers and business people. Thailand instead is working diligently to close and restrict her markets. Vietnam is booming. Thailand is stagnating.The children of today's Thai farmers need access to a quality education so they can move up the value chain and allow Thailand's farms to evolve with the rest of the world. Thailand needs to fully open to competition so as to continue to enjoy the benefits of exporting to other countries. With Thailand's current protectionism that isn't likely. The world will not long allow Thailand to close her markets while continuing to enjoy easy access to other nation's markets. Apparently the policy makers here think they can dictate trade policy to the rest of the world.

Edited April 14, 2007 by ChiangMaiAmerican

[Dupont]

Any surprise?

When the new and improved foreign business act and other anti-foreign regulations become law Thailand will fall even further behind. Next to go tourism. Word of Thailand's xenophobia continues to spread. Major western news outlets and business publications continue to report on the changes to the foreign business act. Most recently they reported on the increased criminal penalties and the removal of the amenesty provisions after the latest draft was approved. They even talk about how foreign business were steered by Thai attorneys inot using the structures that the new and improved foreign business act covers. No mention is made of any severe penalties for the Thai attorneys who set up these structures and told the foreigners they were legal. After all, the attorneys are Thai and must e protected. Only the foreigner faces severe punishment. Doesn't do much for Thailand's reputation. Most foreign travelers are offended by xenophobia and will likely take their money elsewhere. Watch what happens when the government starts prosecuting retirees under the modified foreign business act and confiscating their homes using the 5 million baht penalty. Won't be pretty.

This is where the real long term damage sets in. I pointed out to Thaigoon that this could last decades, as future retiress, ie. many of us here now, are being scared of retiring here. He showed his typical shortsightedness by rubbishing this.

People when they retire, are very careful where they put their money and where they settle. They look round the internet, ask friends and check things out themselves, ususally by taking a number of holidays there to get a feel for the place.

Anyone invovled in this planning stage now, is not going to retire here unless they have money to burn, a screw loose or both.

In any event, there are so many people involved that one or two evictions would clog up the Thai Courts for years. Then there would be the suing of Thai Lawyers for causing this loss in the first place. Thailand would be in breach of all its duties to the WTO as well.

The main jist from our side is that Thailand, cannot sell something, then later decide they did not sell it for enough (greed) or to the right people (xenophobia) and decide to have it back in order to sell again!

However they word their laws, these companies were set up in good faith by foreigners with advice from the supposed cream of Thai intelect (Lawyers).

[ThaiGoon]

Dakhar, I was answering Arkady who mentioned rice exports. I never wanted or meant to brag, but I guess that's how a person of your "intellect" could view it. As for building a marina, as it's been pointed out, this busniess is being encouraged by the BoI. So you will get plenty of benefits. What are you and your farang partners waiting for? Also, like I said earlier, don't forget to show off your "intellect" by talking about your Thai wife and the girth. They will be impressed.

CMAmerican:

Most foreign travelers are offended by xenophobia

Really?

Dupont: tell us more about how the amended FBA will impact future and present retirees. I'd like to know as I thought the businesses listed under Annex 1 to 3 have been known for a while. Tell us how laws finally getting enforced by the Thai gov't will impact you retiree folks. It's been pretty well known that foreigners aren't allowed to own a piece of land or a house in Thailand. You first worlders also have preached fervently about how laws must be consistently enforced in Thailand. Finally it's gonna happen and you all are upset about it? Isn't this what's called hypocrisy?

Edited April 14, 2007 by ThaiGoon

[Dupont]

Dakhar, I was answering Arkady who mentioned rice exports. I never wanted or meant to brag, but I guess that's how a person of your "intellect" could view it. As for building a marina, as it's been pointed out, this busniess is being encouraged by the BoI. So you will get plenty of benefits. What are you and your farang partners waiting for? Also, like I said earlier, don't forget to show off your "intellect" by talking about your Thai wife and the girth. They will be impressed.

CMAmerican:

Most foreign travelers are offended by xenophobia

Really?

Dupont: tell us more about how the amended FBA will impact future and present retirees. I'd like to know as I thought the businesses listed under Annex 1 to 3 have been known for a while. Tell us how laws finally getting enforced by the Thai gov't will impact you retiree folks.

Your're too dumb to work it out and you never listen or learn anything do you? The main thing here is that all foreigners know, feel insecure (when it comes to investing/retiring) and thats what your Government will have to address. Its called confidence!

As you screw around with the regulations, change them every year, we see the potential for major change to take place again in the future. Probably knee jerk reactions as they usually are, having a major impact on us at a time in our lives when we least need it and are worst placed to deal with it or go away and start again. I rest my case, you are scaring of retirees and it will take a long time to turn this around.. The damage is done now and even if you make things easier, we know it won't last. Hope your family fortune is enough to last you your life time, or you may be getting a taste of real Thai life ie poverty and oppresion!

There could be a wrong perception on our part (which there isn't) and the result would be the same. So its the job of Governments the world over to deal consistently and responsible with these matters. EDIT for Thaigoon EVEN IF WE ARE WRONG AND YOU ARE RIGHT, THE RESULT IS THE SAME - LOSS OF CONFIDENCE Now go away and write it out 100 times and don't ask stupid questions again!

Keep the blinkers on Thaigoon, keep the blinkers on. None as blind as them that can't see.

Edited April 14, 2007 by Dupont

[ThaiGoon]

Your're too dumb to work it out and you never listen or learn anything do you? The main thing here is that all foreigners know, feel insecure (when it comes to investing/retiring) and thats what your Government will have to address. Its called confidence!

There could be a wrong perception on our part (which there isn't) and the result would be the same. So its the job of Governments the world over to deal consistently and responsible with these matters.

Keep the blinkers on Thaigoon, keep the blinkers on. None as blind as them that can't see.

Yeah, finally the Thai gov't is trying to enforce the law that's been established for years, and it's gonna wreck your confidence. You knew that you weren't allowed to own land in Thailand and you still went with it. Now it's the gov't's false for trying to prosecute those who have circumvented the law. Nice.

[Dupont]

Your're too dumb to work it out and you never listen or learn anything do you? The main thing here is that all foreigners know, feel insecure (when it comes to investing/retiring) and thats what your Government will have to address. Its called confidence!

There could be a wrong perception on our part (which there isn't) and the result would be the same. So its the job of Governments the world over to deal consistently and responsible with these matters.

Keep the blinkers on Thaigoon, keep the blinkers on. None as blind as them that can't see.

Yeah, finally the Thai gov't is trying to enforce the law that's been established for years, and it's gonna wreck your confidence. You knew that you weren't allowed to own land in Thailand and you still went with it. Now it's the gov't's false for trying to prosecute those who have circumvented the law. Nice.

As you like it mate, as you like it! I feel much more confident about investing now.

[ChiangMaiAmerican]

Your're too dumb to work it out and you never listen or learn anything do you? The main thing here is that all foreigners know, feel insecure (when it comes to investing/retiring) and thats what your Government will have to address. Its called confidence!

There could be a wrong perception on our part (which there isn't) and the result would be the same. So its the job of Governments the world over to deal consistently and responsible with these matters.

Keep the blinkers on Thaigoon, keep the blinkers on. None as blind as them that can't see.

Yeah, finally the Thai gov't is trying to enforce the law that's been established for years, and it's gonna wreck your confidence. You knew that you weren't allowed to own land in Thailand and you still went with it. Now it's the gov't's false for trying to prosecute those who have circumvented the law. Nice.

While fortunately I am not in the situation of of many foreigners here, the fact remains that foreigners come here not knowing the law and seek the advice of Thai attorneys to guide them. Thai attorneys tell them setting up a corporation is recommended legal way to own a retirement home. Foreigners believe the Thai attorneys since attorneys are held to high legal and ethical standards in most other countries and in fact can be jailed, have their license revoked and forced to make restitution to the victims (person they mislead). Not so in Thailand. The victim is responsible for not knowing the law even though he hired and licensed Thai attorney to guide him. The victim probably doesn't read or speak Thai but he is still expected to be competent in all aspects of the law. In most other countries the attorney would at a minimum be forced to make restitution and would also face civil punitive damages. The bar association would revoke the attorney's license and the public prosecutor might file criminal charges.

Edited April 14, 2007 by ChiangMaiAmerican

[ThaiGoon]

As you screw around with the regulations, change them every year

Really? Is that the truth or it's just another typical overexaggeration by a hypocrite? Anyway, I guess you are heading to Cambodia pretty soon right?

By the way, thanks for admitting that you are wrong and I'm right. Guess all that "you are dumb...stupid questions" thing just a childish tantrum from an old (farang) f*rt then.

[ThaiGoon]

As you like it mate, as you like it! I feel much more confident about investing now.

Cambodia, heaven on earth.

[ThaiGoon]

While fortunately I am not in the situation of of many foreigners here, the fact remains that foreigners come here not knowing the law and seek the advice of Thai attorneys to guide them. Thai attorneys tell them setting up a corporation is recommended legal way to own a retirement home. Foreigners believe the Thai attorneys since attorneys are held to high legal and ethical standards in most other countries and in fact can be jailed, have their license revoked and forced to make restitution to the victims (person they mislead). Not so in Thailand. The victim is responsible for not knowing the law even though he hired and licensed Thai attorney to guide him. The victim probably doesn't read or speak Thai but he is still expected to be competent in all aspects of the law. In most other countries the attorney would at a minimum be forced to make restitution and would also face civil punitive damages. The bar association would revoke the attorney's license and the public prosecutor might file criminal charges.

Good point actually. I'd like to hear how the gov't is gonna deal with those lawyers who have assisted foreigners in circumventing the law. I hope this point is not lost on the gov't.

[wolfmanjack]

Your're too dumb to work it out and you never listen or learn anything do you? The main thing here is that all foreigners know, feel insecure (when it comes to investing/retiring) and thats what your Government will have to address. Its called confidence!

There could be a wrong perception on our part (which there isn't) and the result would be the same. So its the job of Governments the world over to deal consistently and responsible with these matters.

Keep the blinkers on Thaigoon, keep the blinkers on. None as blind as them that can't see.

Yeah, finally the Thai gov't is trying to enforce the law that's been established for years, and it's gonna wreck your confidence. You knew that you weren't allowed to own land in Thailand and you still went with it. Now it's the gov't's false for trying to prosecute those who have circumvented the law. Nice.

As you like it mate, as you like it! I feel much more confident about investing now.

In the USA there are many laws that are on the books that are not enforced. The legislatures keep adding laws but very seldom remove any. Some times these outdated laws are kept for a reason. Most aren't. The enforcement of the law is the main thing that people are concerned about and for years these laws in question have not been enforced. This is a known fact. Now to start enforcing a law that has not been enforced for decades is unfair to say the least. Especially in regard to people that have gone along with the accepted practice in the past. Enforcing the law on any new companies that are formed would be fine but going back and prosecuting someone that broke the law 10 years ago is not.

[ThaiGoon]

In the USA there are many laws that are on the books that are not enforced. The legislatures keep adding laws but very seldom remove any. Some times these outdated laws are kept for a reason. Most aren't. The enforcement of the law is the main thing that people are concerned about and for years these laws in question have not been enforced. This is a known fact. Now to start enforcing a law that has not been enforced for decades is unfair to say the least. Especially in regard to people that have gone along with the accepted practice in the past. Enforcing the law on any new companies that are formed would be fine but going back and prosecuting someone that broke the law 10 years ago is not.

Probably that's why it's stated in the amended FBA that the companies will have three years to finally comply with the law.