Infections will skyrocket without social distancing, says official

[Phuketshrew]

19 minutes ago, GAZZPA said:

Your post was insinuating that the UK were not taking appropriate precautions in order to control the spread, completely incorrect. If you have nieces in the NHS you should know your comments were nonsense. You are drawing conclusions from a brief shot in the press and nothing more. It was a pointless post. I was hardly that rude, just think before you post such things.

So calling someone you don't know an imbecile for simply posting an observation is not rude? OK.

[emptypockets]

37 minutes ago, brain150 said:

Full panic mode activated !!!

Insanity is way more dangerous than any other disease ... especially in Government !!!

 

Just in case that anybody want to know what SCIENCE says about the Corona virus:

 

The New England Journal of Medicine [the most renowned Journal for medicine in the World !!!]

Link to the Article: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

 

... This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.

 

The PANIC is real ... the PANDEMIC is not !!!

I'm sure Italy,Iran and now Spain find that reassuring.

[Throatwobbler]

9 hours ago, alien365 said:

So what would you do?

logosone just wants to open up  and let the virus race through so he can keep chasing the dollar. He does not care how many people die. He made that abundantly clear on another thread.

Edited March 28, 2020 by Throatwobbler

[Throatwobbler]

9 hours ago, Mikeasq60 said:

Your father wouldnt stand a chance if he got a cold, your father is a sick man and he's elderly...understand.

So f$&# him his basically your response.

[TKDfella]

8 hours ago, nomad2019 said:

Farangs are the worst offenders ive noticed.

They should be fined for not wearing facemasks and flouting safety regulations.

Good to see 2 metre rule going into big C today.

Im a foreigner btw ????

You obviously didn't read my post #54. And as others here have pointed out, face masks are useless as they are not airtight. They allow air in through sides top & bottom so easily transport ANY virus into the wearer's nose. They are intended for those with symptoms of Colds, Flu etc. to prevent nasal and mouth mucus/fluid being splattered into the air. Myself, as do other expats, wear face masks as a courtesy to Thai people. 

[FarFlungFalang]

8 minutes ago, Throatwobbler said:

logosone just wants to open up  and let the virus race through so he can keep chasing the dollar. He does not care how many people die. He made that abundantly clear on another thread.

If you are in favour of shutting down to save hundreds of thousands of lives in this outbreak you would also be in favour of shutting down to save the lives of the 400,000 flu casualties each and every year would you not?Or are you prepared to let them perish without assistance and without objection?

[Throatwobbler]

6 hours ago, Logosone said:

Also people forget that the hospitals are full of people already with critical conditions, and if a massive focus on Covid19 results in impaired care for those patients, cancellations of operations, beds shifted offsite to people with less expertise, all this could cost the lives of non-Covid19 patients with critical conditions.

 

And prolonging the shock to the health system maybe without tangible benefit if doctors can not do much for Covid19 patients anyway, ie no therapy, no vaccine, not enough supplies.

 

So a quick sharp shock to the health system may cause less deaths than a drawn-out 'flattening of the curve'.

It is impossible to overstate how clueless you are. On another thread posters with evidence showed why social distancing flattens the curve and saves lives. In fact  one of the things you talk about above is why social distancing is important. It is important not to let the hospitals get overwhelmed with Covid cases so that people can still be treated for other things. What you are proposing is that you let Covid rip through the population which will result in incredibly more deaths. But hey you don’t care how many people die do you? You just want to keep chasing that dollar.

 

 

[Throatwobbler]

3 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

If you are in favour of shutting down to save hundreds of thousands of lives in this outbreak you would also be in favour of shutting down to save the lives of the 400,000 flu casualties each and every year would you not?Or are you prepared to let them perish without assistance and without objection?

This is more infectious and more deadly than flu. Also for flu we have vaccines in place to help the vulnerable. Covid 19 is a new disease with a great many unknowns. People who want to say it is just like the flu really do not get the potential seriousness of it.

[Throatwobbler]

11 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

If you are in favour of shutting down to save hundreds of thousands of lives in this outbreak you would also be in favour of shutting down to save the lives of the 400,000 flu casualties each and every year would you not?Or are you prepared to let them perish without assistance and without objection?

Just a question for you. What number of global deaths is acceptable to you before we start taking global measures? 1 million, 10 million????

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Yes, there's debt, but then there's coronavirus debt.

The debt before the virus was already in the hundreds of trillions. Corona is a mere blip.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2017/05/31/mauldin-brace-yourself-for-the-great-reset/#674bece55d38

[FarFlungFalang]

9 minutes ago, Throatwobbler said:

This is more infectious and more deadly than flu. Also for flu we have vaccines in place to help the vulnerable. Covid 19 is a new disease with a great many unknowns. People who want to say it is just like the flu really do not get the potential seriousness of it.

400,000 die each and every year die from the flu (4 million over the last ten years) even with the vaccines are you suggesting that we ignore trying to save those people because there are vaccines and that covid19 may or may not be more deadly than the flu?As the experts say it's to early to say if it's more deadly and even if it is more deadly are you saying that the 400,000 men women and children who die from the flu are not worthy of the same measures to save them?At this stage even the experts are revising down quite considerably their estimates of how serious this outbreak really is.Nobody knows how infectious this outbreak is or it's severity at this stage.

[gavlar]

On 3/27/2020 at 8:33 AM, Phuketshrew said:

Many people just not grasping the seriousness of the situation. Just watching Sky News - In the UK police are stopping cars and getting close to unwound windows - no masks or protective gear. Hundred's of people on the streets applauding the nurses (which is commendable) but not many masks and very little social distancing. Unbelievable.

Your wrong....I'm in UK.....at least 95% of people in lockdown....a few idiots as in every society

[Kalasin Jo]

On 3/27/2020 at 4:08 PM, NCC1701A said:

what state of emergency?

 

having just done a 13 kilometer round trip from by house to Big C in Hua Hin and back I was shocked to see how normal everything was. 

 

as I left my hood the traffic which has been greatly reduced slowly increased as I headed to the more "no nonsense" part of town. 

 

the big differences in town is greatly reduced traffic, bars closed, massage closed, restaurants switched to take out, malls closed. But that was it, very business was open all the way across town. Maybe salon were closed. But not laundry.  

 

Building supply stores were selling concrete bricks and groups of Thai men were loading them on a pickup truck. I saw farang buying blue PVC pipe. Scooter sales and repair, cellphone shops, everything was open and people were everywhere.   

 

At least the Thais are wearing masks now in much larger numbers, I would say 80%. Still farangs in Big C no mask. All older white males seem to be this demographic.  

 

I never saw one policeman anywhere on my route.

 

 

 

Same up here in the sticks, just as you describe. And the hi lo and card "casinos" continue too. But I am an older farang at 68 and wore a mask in to very quiet Big C, only one entry point where temperature checked and a squirt of sanitiser before being allowed inside,  in Kalasin city yesterday. Not so at a busy 7/11 I also called in to, although the staff were all masked 

[FarFlungFalang]

13 minutes ago, Throatwobbler said:

Just a question for you. What number of global deaths is acceptable to you before we start taking global measures? 1 million, 10 million????

That depends upon the measures.The measures I'm in favour of are addressing the shortfall in our health system to accommodate these types of events rather than spend huge amounts of money on things designed purely to kill as many people as possible.Why do we allow so much of our hard earned to be spent on things that are designed to kill hundreds of thousands then get all teary eyed when something like this comes along.Prioritise life rather than death would be my preference.Global measures such as I've suggested should begin before the first fatality.Imagine if you will taking all the effort and resources put into designing and building these killing machines and putting them into trying to deal with these types of catastrophic events instead of trying to kill the economy and raping people of their human rights. 

[wasabi]

I keep reading masks are useless but I am calling BS on that. Quality N95 masks are quite USEFUL. Not saying you should feel totally protected with a mask since your eyes remain exposed unless you cover them but it seems obvious covering your mouth and nose decreases you spreading and getting the virus. It has the added benefit of preventing you from touching those parts of your face. I also wear my sunglasses at all times even indoors. I realize it is a small measure of protection but better than nothing. I will keep wearing the mask and glasses til this is over.

[3NUMBAS]

8 metres is the new standard of safe distance

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/scientists-warn-stay-eight-metres-21769382

[3NUMBAS]

and remove contact lenses as you can get pink eye from the virus .use glasses

[Phuketshrew]

1 hour ago, gavlar said:

On 3/27/2020 at 3:33 PM, Phuketshrew said:

Many people just not grasping the seriousness of the situation. Just watching Sky News - In the UK police are stopping cars and getting close to unwound windows - no masks or protective gear. Hundred's of people on the streets applauding the nurses (which is commendable) but not many masks and very little social distancing. Unbelievable.

Your wrong....I'm in UK.....at least 95% of people in lockdown....a few idiots as in every society

I did not say that 95% of people (or any % of people) were not grasping the situation - I said many. I saw UK Police stopping cars without any masks or due care for social distancing. I also saw people on the streets doing the same. I did not say it was 95% or even 5% of people. I made an observation and commented on it, nothing wrong with that. Good night and stay safe.

[Cryingdick]

You just have to look at the way Thais eat together to know social distancing won't work. Everybody hunched together on the floor dipping into every dish and you realize it's a disease spreading frenzy. 

[Logosone]

2 hours ago, DrTuner said:

The debt before the virus was already in the hundreds of trillions. Corona is a mere blip.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2017/05/31/mauldin-brace-yourself-for-the-great-reset/#674bece55d38

Thanks Dr Turner, good article.

 

I have repeated many times on here that debt is a huge problem for the world economies. And it is this 2 Trillion slowdown in GDP plus the billions in additional debt that will push the economies over the debt abysss.

 

Again, this was avoidable. It need not have happened this way at this time. The lockdowns caused this.

[Logosone]

12 hours ago, alien365 said:

So what would you do?

 

So, here's what I'd do:

 

I'd follow the Netherlands model of allowing the virus to spread to those who've proven most resilient to Covid19, whilst isolating those most at risk of dying.

 

This would accelerate herd immunity where 60% are infected and thus stop the virus. 

 

Here's why, in Thailand the mass testing approach of SKorea and Germany would not work. Herd immunity will come before a vaccine and before mass testing. 

 

The sooner herd immunity comes the better it would be.

[geriatrickid]

On 3/27/2020 at 4:47 AM, colinneil said:

Social distancing, ha ha ha, thats a joke, all the usual village gossips  congregating next door for their daily session.

The only people practicing distancing is me and the misses, everyone else here business as usual.

Two women outside our gate this morning giving my wife grief about being married to the crazy hiding away farang.

You will most likely outlive them. 

[gk10002000]

OK.  Is anybody keeping track of all the various apriori predictions that have been made by many people?  Is anybody going to then track how good all those predictions turned out?  How would one know?  In the USA you can't easily even be tested.  They have lists, priorities, etc.  And in other countries, do you think 7 billion or so test kits will be issued or used?

  Reminds me of those newspaper psychics like Jean Dixon.  Thousands and thousands of predictions.

[geriatrickid]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

 

So, here's what I'd do:

 

I'd follow the Netherlands model of allowing the virus to spread to those who've proven most resilient to Covid19, whilst isolating those most at risk of dying.

 

This would accelerate herd immunity where 60% are infected and thus stop the virus. 

 

Here's why, in Thailand the mass testing approach of SKorea and Germany would not work. Herd immunity will come before a vaccine and before mass testing. 

 

The sooner herd immunity comes the better it would be.

 You have posted posted false information.

The Netherlands has reversed its initial position  and now acknowledges  that the strategy was inappropriate. In the past week the  Dutch government has implemented many of the restrictions  and measures seen in its neighbors.

 

Covid 19 has infected and killed  Dutch people who were assumed to not be at risk. These were people under age 60 and with no serious underlying health conditions.  It finally dawned on the Dutch that the "herd immunity" concept was not possible because it is impossible to separate  the at risk from the young. More importantly, it was acknowledged  that there is NO EVIDENCE  that  immunity occurs after infection with the novel coronavirus and how long an immunity would persist.

 

Why the change? Because the failure to initiate social distancing  as of Friday, March 27th resulted in  8,603 confirmed cases, with 1,172 new cases in the past 24 hours; 546 total deaths, with 112 new deaths in the past 24 hours.  There are at least 761 patients in serious or critical condition, with thousands more hospitalized and the numbers continuing to rise.   According to the "herd immunity" concept this should not have happened. 

 

The Netherlands now has regulations in place to stop gatherings of 3 people or more and it is being enforced. For example, In Duiven and Westervoort, young people were fined for not adhering to the rules of no gatherings consisting of 3 or more people and for not keeping 1.5 meters away from each other. In Kaag, the police took six young people out of a home. They were visiting, but despite warnings, were "sitting right next to each other on the couch". How's that for your  "herd immunity" nonsense.

 

 

Stop pushing out false and misleading information to support your  irresponsible  personal agenda. 

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by geriatrickid

[Logosone]

No I haven't, I am aware that the Netherlands have added targeted social distancing restrictions as well now. But they are useless.

 

I would, for Thailand, stick with the controlled spread and heard immunity for those least at risk approach, which the Netherlands had earlier.

 

The rest of your post is the usual nonsense, doubting immunity.

 

Immunity is the rule:

 

Prof Jon Cohen, emeritus professor of infectious diseases at Brighton and Sussex Medical School, said: 

 

“However, it is very likely, based on other viral infections, that yes, once a person has had the infection they will generally be immune and won’t get it again. There will always be the odd exception, but that is certainly a reasonable expectation.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/the-big-question-over-coronavirus-can-a-person-get-it-twice

 

I know you have this crackpot theory that like with AIDS, you can't get immunity for Covid19. But that's just nonsense.

 

Yes, cases in the Netherlands have gone up slightly and they have now introduced targetted social distancing, but they are very mild social distancing measures and targeted. No more than 3 people is a very moderate policy, more moderate than Germany even.

 

I.5 metre is less than the UK's two metres.

 

As for the statistics, the majority of deaths in the Netherlands are the old, not the young. The young that are affected are the exception.

 

The victims have not occured because herd immunity does not exist, but simply because it has not occured yet. Big difference.

 

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Logosone

[ParkerN]

On 3/27/2020 at 4:43 PM, 4MyEgo said:

They younger groups of Thai's don't seem to give a rats a$$ as we see groups of 20 or so drinking away, sad really, what happens when they go home and infect good old mum and dad or their grandparents and they pass away, hope it was all worth it then.

 

This is the downside of Buddhist culture. Welcome. They don't care, they've had all the fear of death indoctrinated out of them. According to buddhists, if they die, they'll come back more or less advanced according to the merit they made in this life, and I've yet to meet a buddhist who thought they would come back less advanced than they are now.

 

You reap what you sow. You sowed this, you reap it. And for God's sake stop lamenting it, you did it all on your own. It was fine so long as you thought the people would do as they're told and you could keep taking their money, now they're showing some independence, you don't like it much. Tough, you should have looked after them better in the first place.

 

If you can't take a joke, you shouldn't have joined.

 

 

[Throatwobbler]

4 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

400,000 die each and every year die from the flu (4 million over the last ten years) even with the vaccines are you suggesting that we ignore trying to save those people because there are vaccines and that covid19 may or may not be more deadly than the flu?As the experts say it's to early to say if it's more deadly and even if it is more deadly are you saying that the 400,000 men women and children who die from the flu are not worthy of the same measures to save them?At this stage even the experts are revising down quite considerably their estimates of how serious this outbreak really is.Nobody knows how infectious this outbreak is or it's severity at this stage.

I like that you feel free to gamble with other people’s lives about how dangerous it could be. People with respect and compassion for the older generation will do our best to keep them clear from this virus. It is obvious that you do not give a f$&# and would not care if they all die. I am happy that you have no elderly relatives that you care about and are happy for them all to die. Some of us do care though and we hope that you can follow simple orders and stay at home. This is not all about you. 

[Throatwobbler]

36 minutes ago, Logosone said:

No I haven't, I am aware that the Netherlands have added targeted social distancing restrictions as well now. But they are useless.

 

I would, for Thailand, stick with the controlled spread and heard immunity for those least at risk approach, which the Netherlands had earlier.

 

The rest of your post is the usual nonsense, doubting immunity.

 

Immunity is the rule:

 

Prof Jon Cohen, emeritus professor of infectious diseases at Brighton and Sussex Medical School, said: 

 

“However, it is very likely, based on other viral infections, that yes, once a person has had the infection they will generally be immune and won’t get it again. There will always be the odd exception, but that is certainly a reasonable expectation.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/the-big-question-over-coronavirus-can-a-person-get-it-twice

 

I know you have this crackpot theory that like with AIDS, you can't get immunity for Covid19. But that's just nonsense.

 

Yes, cases in the Netherlands have gone up slightly and they have now introduced targetted social distancing, but they are very mild social distancing measures and targeted. No more than 3 people is a very moderate policy, more moderate than Germany even.

 

I.5 metre is less than the UK's two metres.

 

As for the statistics, the majority of deaths in the Netherlands are the old, not the young. The young that are affected are the exception.

 

The victims have not occured because herd immunity does not exist, but simply because it has not occured yet. Big difference.

 

 

Follow the dollar. You don’t care how many people die. You just want those dollars in your hand. 
I was reading a quote about people like you and basically it say that there is no word in the English language to describe those who will let  people die just so they can keep getting money.

Evil does not get close to describing these people.

[Throatwobbler]

Logosone on 2 different threads just keeps posting lies and what he claims to be scientific facts from just 2 people. He has constantly been unable to look at many other scientific reports posted from many other people. It is clear that he had a very little understanding of science and numbers. It is a shame that he will be telling his children the same lies.

at the end of the day what you have to understand about Logosone is that he puts far more value into the dollar that he can hold in his hand than into anyone’s life.

[diddygq]

On 3/27/2020 at 3:52 PM, Logosone said:

Too late.

 

The virus has long spread in large numbers in Thailand.

 

Social distancing will achieve nothing, except possibly, if done perfectly effect a very small slowing in transmission. That is all.

 

But any fantasy of containing the virus by lockdowns, travel restrictions, curfews and "social distancing" are just pure illusory beliefs. There is absolutely no hard data that shows social distancing can do anything else but achieve very small delays.

 

This study shows the whole isolation of Wuhan only bought the rest of China 3 days:

 

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/25/science.abb4218

Do more research. China could have contained it before spreading out of Wuhan and then the world. Even though doctors and reporters were warning the government, the CCP chose to detain, beat up, and silence them. They let 3 million people leave Wuhan before even lifting a finger. If they would have acted swiftly instead of covering up, you or I wouldn't have to worry about it. The CCP is very similar to Thailand in the fact they are not proactive and wait until there is a big problem before acting. 

 

You can see the study is complete BS because they don't have the real data. The first cases in Wuhan were in early November. That study is going off Wuhan, 2 months later. 

 

Social distancing and lots of testing does work. Taiwan and South Korea have proved it.

Edited March 28, 2020 by diddygq