World Bank optimistic of Thai economic recovery next year despite likely contraction in 2020

By The Nation

 

 

The impact of the Covid-19 outbreak will be severe beyond expectation, the World Bank warned but added it was confident that Thailand has the financial resources and innovative policies to deal with the challenges.

 

Thailand's gross domestic product is forecast to be in negative territory -- between -3 and -5 per cent this year -- Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, World Bank’s senior economist for Thailand, said on Thursday (April 2).

 

This would lead to contraction of household consumption, private investment and exports, he said, but was optimistic the economy would recover next year and in 2022, with GDP estimated to expand 4 per cent and 3.5 per cent respectively.

 

“The challenge would be much bigger than anyone expected,” Birgit Hansi, World Manager of Thailand, said and added that impact would be faced in many areas, including tourism on which Thailand depends a lot.

 

She, however, was confident that the country had the fiscal space to deal with it. Thai public debt is relatively small compared to its debt during the previous crises and decades, placing Thailand in a better position to deal with challenges, she said. 

 

She backed the Finance Ministry and the government's previous two economic packages and the proposed third stimulus. One package cannot cover all issues, and innovative policies are coming from Thailand and other countries, she said.

 

She suggested that workers in the informal sector needed financial support quickly while the government also needed to design a stimulus package for the next six months for a longer period. 

 

She praised the Bank of Thailand's efforts to cushion the impact of the crisis and believed in the strength of financial sector.

 

The World Bank said that the medium-term outlook was subject to high domestic and external downside risks. The main risk is that the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak may be more severe locally and globally.

 

“The downside risk is large,” said Kiatipong.

 

The current crisis is expected to increase Thailand’s rate of poverty to 8.7 per cent of total population, up from 8.4 per cent last year, he warned.

 

The Thai government is currently implementing direct cash handouts for self-employed people whose incomes have been affected by the virus outbreak and the government-ordered business shutdown. More than 20 million people have registered for the cash handouts scheme while the government plans to give to just 9 million people.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30385266

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-04-02

Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

I'm not an expert, but this seems rather optimistic, considering the fact that we're only just starting the crisis. The worst has yet to come.

I wouldn't expect World Bank, or any bankers to spread panic, it's not their job anyway.

3 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

World Bank optimistic

...to think that Thailand will still be here next year.

As an expat living here, I do feel sad to see money not spent adequately on libraries, health, schooling , infrastructure etc, the likes of which western countries incur lots of debt. But I do see much happier people generally . So who knows . A balance , I suppose, would be nice. 
I sincerely wish the Govt the best as these are terribly difficult times and hope they will look after all Thais who are badly affected economically with all the lockdowns and restrictions that are there to curb this virus.

Keep on dreaming ...

Thailand is currently in a strong financial position due to the influx of for -ex and investment coming in from the West when the recession( and let's hope it's not a depression ) follows the end of the virus will it continue? Also expect a large exodus of ex pats who will not be able to afford to live there,let's face it Thailand's had its day,it's not value now and is just another third world country with first world prices and aspirations.

The world bank now there is someone you can trust......

Percentages are fun. If you go down 50%, you need to grow 100% just to get back to same level. 

 

Going to be a rough decade.

At the beginning of any journey there is hope... but one day we arrive at the destination and must face reality.

Thailand's recovery will be dependant on the global economy recovering especially with regard to the tourist industry, if the west suffers a protracted recession with the accompanying high unemployment rate then discretionary money will be low and it's Blackpool holidays for the Brits instead of long flights to SE Asia (if any holidays at all) same for the French, Germans and Scandinavians. Flight prices will also rise as the airlines try to recoup their losses. I don't see things getting much better for Thailand (or anybody else for that matter) for the next 3 years at least. 

16 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Thailand's gross domestic product is forecast to be in negative territory -- between -3 and -5 per cent this year -- Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, World Bank’s senior economist for Thailand, said on Thursday (April 2).

With it's economy already falling due to the Baht strength and tourism now at zero Thailand is in for a bad year, thousands will be unemployed.. for a long time.

Many will not last out this year and fold completely.

As foreign companies close or lay-off staff in factories Thailand has nothing of it's own to fill the void or offer alternative employment.

People returning from other Asian countries will be signing on too.

Prayut is in for a rocky ride when people start to go hungry... best delay the military expenditure and start putting some in the publics pocket or there will be riots on the street.

 

Let's face it Its going to be tough.
As we all know, the prosperous West has propped itself up on loans and overdrafts for the past 20 years. People in the UK and the US are eating into their savings rapidly and maxing out their credit.
Thailand can forget any tourist arrivals apart from the very well heeled, for the foreseeable future.
This makes for a recipe for disaster, because the greedy thais will whack up their prices to cover their losses.
And anyway - this is far from over - it's only just begun. And Thailand's blatant refusal to lockdown the country and forbid movement just makes for a super-spreading scenario. Who knows just how many cases of CVD19 there are here? Probably tens of thousands already. Until thailand is real and honest about the virus, do you think anyone is going to be interested in coming here to visit?? 

3 hours ago, hotchilli said:

Prayut is in for a rocky ride when people start to go hungry... best delay the military expenditure and start putting some in the publics pocket or there will be riots on the street.

Nah- Thailand produces massive amounts of food. Thailand is unlikely to go hungry.

ITs the rest of the world you need to worry about. 

Very likely to see unrest in places like the Philippines for sure.

Maybe the worm will turn, the food producing north and south will hoard the food and let Bangkok starve.

Empty malls/restaurants and no ability or place to grow anything, if they had the knowledge that is

15 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

Maybe the worm will turn, the food producing north and south will hoard the food and let Bangkok starve.

Empty malls/restaurants and no ability or place to grow anything, if they had the knowledge that is

With the non-native Bangkok workers back at the farms, not a completely impossible scenario. Would have some sweet justice in it.

33 minutes ago, eeworldwide said:

Nah- Thailand produces massive amounts of food. Thailand is unlikely to go hungry.

I would be less sure than you ..
Full of agricultural products filled with pesticides;
and full of seafood stuffed with heavy metals.
but apart from that everything is going very well Madame la marquise ..

18 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

Maybe the worm will turn, the food producing north and south will hoard the food and let Bangkok starve.

Empty malls/restaurants and no ability or place to grow anything, if they had the knowledge that is

I hear what you're saying, but I think you'll agree that it's highly unlikely.

I would say that we're more likely to see anger against the current political situation if it doesn't provide realistic support and new infrastructure going forward.
Can you imagine what 2 more months of no work and increasing sickness is going to do people?

Its not just a matter of food, its bigger than that.

10 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said:

I would be less sure than you ..
Full of agricultural products filled with pesticides;
and full of seafood stuffed with heavy metals.
but apart from that everything is going very well Madame la marquise ..

But that's precisely what the Thais have been eating for ages - why suddenly stop now?


 

1 minute ago, eeworldwide said:

But that's precisely what the Thais have been eating for ages - why suddenly stop now?


 

They can continue to eat whatever they want and even poison themselves with joy 

 

( I never ate sea products in Thailand since 14 y I'm living here )

 

BUT it was and I put this verb in the imperfect because it will never be the same thing again, Europe and the US big buyers of Thai seafood will turn to their national productions;
and to whom will Thailand sell its pesticide-polluted vegetables

and its mercury-laden shrimp and other heavy metals?

1 minute ago, Assurancetourix said:

They can continue to eat whatever they want and even poison themselves with joy 

 

( I never ate sea products in Thailand since 14 y I'm living here )

 

BUT it was and I put this verb in the imperfect because it will never be the same thing again, Europe and the US big buyers of Thai seafood will turn to their national productions;
and to whom will Thailand sell its pesticide-polluted vegetables

and its mercury-laden shrimp and other heavy metals?

To the chinese?

27 minutes ago, eeworldwide said:

I would say that we're more likely to see anger against the current political situation if it doesn't provide realistic support and new infrastructure going forward.

Silver lining. Maybe Thais finally rise up. Long, long overdue.

Awesome

22 minutes ago, eeworldwide said:

Can you imagine what 2 more months of no work and increasing sickness is going to do people?

Yes you're correct, the real problem will start if this continues for two or three months as a semi-lockdown scenario, people will want real help and real answers from the government about how to pay the bank for home loans, repay the car, pay rent for shops that are closed, pay the utility bills etc etc... food I agree is available, handouts might help a little with food but it doesn't pay the bills.

5,000 baht isn't going to help anyone who has been forced out of work.

It's going to get real messy really quick come May/June if the Prayut & Co comedy act can't come up with a realistic package, crumbs don't cut it!

As a bonus it's nice to see Anutin has been silenced.... his racist remarks were unnecessary.

23 hours ago, eeworldwide said:

I'm not an expert, but this seems rather optimistic, considering the fact that we're only just starting the crisis. The worst has yet to come.

do you think its just started because of the published numbers? the Chinese were entering Thailand freely in January, February and most of March. assume the numbers are much much bigger. The only reason  the number is so small is because the lack of testing. Didnt Thailand start with charging people for testing? The UK are taking time to ramp up the testing numbers per day and we still have over 35k formal numbers. however the government has said there are likely many many more...