As someone with training in statistics, reacting to a single data point is not a good idea. When the data trends down for another 6 days in a row, then I'll start getting excited. We are far from out of the woods, it only takes one irresponsible idiot to start the spread again.

1 minute ago, SantiSuk said:

vast number of unrecorded infections

 

1 minute ago, SantiSuk said:

large numbers of unrecorded deaths

 

I haven't read much from people claiming there are large numbers of unreported deaths...

But you are right that there are vast numbers of unrecorded infections.

As is the case around the world... So the actual death rates due to Covid are much less than being reported % wise...

 

I picked a random year again, 2014.. In the U.K over 11,000 men and over 15,000 women died of influenza/pneumonia.. 26,000 deaths from flu !!! That's an average year...

 

We are being conned and manipulated...

3 minutes ago, bangkokfrog said:

Good news (I hope). I have gone on record as questioning the death figures here a number of times, but the more time that goes by with no whistle-blower contradicting them, the more likely it is that there is some truth in the government stats.

 

Like most government statistics there is sure to be some massaging, errors and data that is simply not captured, e.g. undetected cases including untested deaths.  But there is a limit to the order of magnitude of these discrepancies that is possible, even with lower demand for ICUs and hospital beds created by drastically reducing traffic accidents. 

How about the theory ( just a guess ! ) .......... Yes, there is little testing done here.  Add to that

the fact that most Thais will stay home when sick, not run to the hospital unless very sick.

And,  maybe Thais immune system is stronger than those from the US ,  where obesity and general health  IMO   is not as tough as these third world groups.

My GF grew up with barely enough to eat,  used to walk everywhere,  and had to fetch the buffaloes and walk through mud and whatever to get home.  She is one healthy girl !  

So, it could be that many here have been exposed but are not dropping like french fries on

the pavement, or in the fields.   

Just my theory.   Maybe we can all get back to normal life soon ( well, you know, Thailand normal)   ????

Nobody knows exactly what level of restriction on freedom is needed to reduce R₀ below 1. The politicians will be blamed as power-mad dictators trampling on personal freedoms if they clamp down too hard, while if they don't clamp down hard enough and the virus continues to spread they will be accused of being weak and not doing enough to save lives. They can't win in terms of personal popularity, not just here but in places like the UK too. I'd sooner see them get the virus under control quickly, no matter what it takes, than lose more lives for no good reason and let the virus spread for months. 

23 minutes ago, z42 said:

If these numbers are to be believed then i wonder why the Education ministry is pushing for a delay to term starting from May to July.

 

Seems illogical that if the curve is dipping to look for even greater lockdown measures

The overworked Teachers are very stressed out with the demanding Protocol and need a longer holiday, poor things !

23 minutes ago, pmh2009 said:

Look unless you have tested everyone or at least tried...like Germany - who tests 500K per week.. whatever data or numbers you have and say  are irrelevant!!! Let say you only test 3 million out of a population of 69 million --- what is the percentage of that is correct???? Just because the infected cases go down does not mean that the VIRUS is dissipating or clearing up!!!!!!

I would like to see more info on this testing.  Is it random population tests?  People coming to a hospital?  Until we know the methods most of this data is useless.

14 minutes ago, actonion said:

I hope its not T.O.T. sending out this report 

Maybe you mean T.A.T. ? T.O.T. is the telephone organization.

10 minutes ago, Dogmatix said:

Even if the warmer Southeast Asian climate inhibits the spread of the virus, which similarly low infection rates in Indonesia and the Philippines might support, it is odd that the mortality rate and absolute number of deaths is so much less than those two countries. Malaysia also has a significantly higher number of cases per capita which is probably explained by more widespread testing.

 

The coming rainy season could be a risk factor, as that is traditionally the flu season in Thailand.

 

And Cambodia  - also low and seems to have succeeded in containing it (though at the price of sealing itself off from the world, literally).

 

Young demographic compared to the West contributes a lott o lower mortality.

 

Also in Thailand and Cambodia, comparatively low population density means that not as many infected people will have come into contact with large innoculums of the virus.

Our Local Hospital is less busy than on any normal day and our two Local Burn Sites are all but redundant; there must be some truth in the numbers although it's always hard to trust any Thai with numbers....even the Thai Wife says so !

just keep in mind how it all started.... yes with false claims and poor or lack of reporting

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/time-put-china-lockdown-dishonesty-040108582.html

 

"""There are many lessons to be learned from the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic. But one is already clear: China needs to be isolated from the civilized world until its behavior improves. We are in the current situation, with deaths and economic devastation worldwide, because China handled this outbreak with its trademark mixture of dishonesty, incompetence and thuggery. Were China a more civilized nation, this outbreak would have been stopped early, and with far less harm, inside and outside of China."""

I saw some news from a month ago that 80 Thais escaped from immigration detention after returning from S. Korea. This just does not jibe with what I know

of average Thai people's behavior. My impression is they are  compliant and fearful of authority. What would they be afraid of to risk their life running away..

or did they fear for their lives with the authorities already... ??

 

Just today a Thai told me now the story is 100 thais escaped detention upon return from USA... now it's starting to sound like fake news.. or recycled fake news..

 

very strange..

 

https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/80-thai-workers-returning-from-south-korea-escape-airport-search-underway

 

or maybe it's just the influence of China.. CCP..so the SEA governments do not blame them.. keep it quiet boys.. and don't talk about us.

we'll dot i's and cross t's in a while.. ????

 

Edited April 7, 20206 yr by FarangSanuk
added comment

1 hour ago, saakura said:

"Err on the side of caution"     "Better safe than sorry"

It seems that a single dip in daily numbers is  cause for celebration of defeat of the virus. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. Custard is lumpy.

 

More sensible to see if the dip is sustained - for 1 week perhaps? Then watch for a flattening as the government sees the opportunity to tighten up the testing...

 

 

43 minutes ago, darksidedog said:

Another day of good news, bringing the likelihood of a full on curfew even less likely. We all know that way more testing would be helpful, but I am yet to hear of a single report of masses of sick and dying crowding at the hospitals. It does seem that Thailand is being most fortunate and that the virus here is unlikely to go crazy like in Europe and the US.

I just hope that by Monday of next week, the numbers being reported aren't trending to far down, you know like -100 people were found to not be infected, and only 50 were tested......I know being a bit of an <deleted> aren't I

10 minutes ago, losworld said:

I would like to see more info on this testing.  Is it random population tests?  People coming to a hospital?  Until we know the methods most of this data is useless.

Absolutely !!more available detailed information would be appreciated.

13 minutes ago, Phuketshrew said:

Maybe you mean T.A.T. ? T.O.T. is the telephone organization.

I think he must be right, its being sent by morse code.....

This is great news, sure we know that here we cannot test as much as wanted, but that's the same in Europe. Also there we see a downward curve in numbers hospitalized and deads. 

23 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

As someone with training in statistics, reacting to a single data point is not a good idea. When the data trends down for another 6 days in a row, then I'll start getting excited. We are far from out of the woods, it only takes one irresponsible idiot to start the spread again.

You mean like the people that arrived at the airport the other night.  The selfish and irresponsible ones bugged off because they didn't want to go to quarantine.  And there are others. 

what am i going to do with all these cans of mackerel in tomato sauce?

Reality check.

On 4 April 2020 at 18:00, Thailand announced that 805 additional people met the criteria for PUI, raising the total to 24,474 PUI, as shown in Table 1.

Just now, NCC1701A said:

what am i going to do with all these cans of mackerel in tomato sauce?

I heard they make great aphrodisiacs.

they really are not running many tests. check this:

 

Bad news for anyone expecting a baht to crash. It's only going higher baby due to Western "stimulus" money being thrown from multiple helicopters.

 

30 baht to UK pound by the end of the year.

Edited April 7, 20206 yr by Pravda

Pho Ya Ban came around this morning.....apparently to check up on me.   Find out where I been.  No biggy.  About 2 hours later the doctor from the government clinic rang to ask how long I had been in Thailand.  I guess they were worried I had just arrived.  Which is strange as 6 days out of 7 I will see Pho Ya Ban up at the PA hut when I am walking the dogs at much the same time every day!  6:30am is our designated walk time.  

36 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

As someone with training in statistics, reacting to a single data point is not a good idea. When the data trends down for another 6 days in a row, then I'll start getting excited. We are far from out of the woods, it only takes one irresponsible idiot to start the spread again.

Even so, unless we had the slightest clue about how they are testing in Thailand, any numbers they present are quite meaningless. They probably think most people who read these newsclips are mathematically challenged, so they can spin it any way they choose.

Edited April 7, 20206 yr by tropo

A post using a trolling reference to the PM has been removed, another post trolling another member has been removed. 

1 hour ago, z42 said:

If these numbers are to be believed then i wonder why the Education ministry is pushing for a delay to term starting from May to July.

 

Seems illogical that if the curve is dipping to look for even greater lockdown measures

The Education ministry made that announcement before the significant drop in the last few days. And they are not looking to increase lockdown measures now. They just said yesterday that there would not be a 24-hour curfew. 

What a coincidence the numbers started dropping immediately after the pending test number was taken off public eyes by MoPH. 

1 hour ago, ThreeEyedRaven said:

It may also be that the lungs and immune systems here which have not been through months of extremely cold weather are in better position to start with, making it easier to brush off. Don't care right now TBH. Numbers are going down. There is light at the end of the tunnel.

 

That light at the end of the tunnel?...it's a train.

 

These numbers are meaningless having only tested 25,071 people.

 

It's kind of like gays in the military strategy "Don't test, don't tell".

1 hour ago, pmh2009 said:

Look unless you have tested everyone or at least tried...like Germany - who tests 500K per week.. whatever data or numbers you have and say  are irrelevant!!! Let say you only test 3 million out of a population of 69 million --- what is the percentage of that is correct???? Just because the infected cases go down does not mean that the VIRUS is dissipating or clearing up!!!!!!

See, here's the thing for you, pmh2009, and the other naysayers. It's not feasible to test the entire population. I agree, there are flaws in the methodology and the resulting data. However, what we've got is a statistically significant sample, day after day. If the sampling  method has remained constant, the trend is undeniably downward. 

 

The generals are fudging the numbers, you say? So be it. 

 

There's not enough testing, you say? Have it your way. 

 

Rural folks are hiding in the countryside, you say? You're probably right. 

 

If those things are true, they have been true throughout. We have been reading your negative remarks for weeks, which means, even if you're right, those flaws in the method have been factored in for weeks. They're constant. The flaws you dwell on are accounted for in the methodology. All things being equal, the trend is downward. That's good news. 

Edited April 7, 20206 yr by LawrenceN
Typo