Thailand reports sharp fall in new COVID-19 cases

[garygooner]

US & Europe having so many cases. I'm sure if Thailand was similar we'd know about it. Many of you have Thai families, cousins, friends of friends of friends. Thais love to talk. Other countries in this region similar to Thailand ie Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Cambodia and Vietnam. Could it be a milder strain of virus and the hot, humid climate. 

 

 

 

 

[RichardColeman]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

Health officials said there had been 38 new cases, bringing the total number of cases in the country to 2,258.

Very interesting that whilst wiki has the new cases mirroring this 38 cases, they also have added 597 suspected cases in the last 24 hours (up to 25,071) - that I feel is more telling

Edited April 7, 2020 by RichardColeman

[Chivas]

1 hour ago, cyril sneer said:

this will upset a few

If you believe those numbers fella give your head a serious wobble. Its ALL about face.

[ThailandRyan]

If numbers are to be believed, then how the heck can you believe the number of infected when Thailand has only tested 0.000359‬% of people, that's a percentage taken directly from the figure posted showing 359 tests conducted per 1 million people in the population.  What a small and insignificant percentage.

[rabas]

46 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

I haven't read much from people claiming there are large numbers of unreported deaths...

But you are right that there are vast numbers of unrecorded infections.

As is the case around the world... So the actual death rates due to Covid are much less than being reported % wise...

Do you have any actual data, numbers for this?

 

The head of the WHO delegation that went to Wuhan later gave a presentation with lots of charts. He said they were very surprised not to find evidence of the large numbers of mild unreported cases.

 

This is a press conference transcript, what I saw was a video data presentation by the head.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/transcripts/joint-mission-press-conference-script-english-final.pdf?sfvrsn=51c90b9e_2

 

Here is a different video, see about the 3:00 minute mark

 

 

[homeseeker]

So should let Chinese back into Thailand providing they are kept in Thai isolation for a minimum of at least 2 weeks at their own expense: right?

[Kaopad999]

I've said it once and i will say it again. Face masks DO help! 
Anyone willing to deny this should take a look at Europe and America where very few people wear masks. And then compare that with Asia where a high majority of people do wear them. 

Edited April 7, 2020 by Kaopad999

[DrTuner]

Sigh. And now people are quoting the 25k number as those tested. It's not, it's just the PUI count from MoPH. Pending test was around 7k, then dropped to 2k right before the deleted it from their reports. 

 

The muddy data is making rounds in aggregator sites and people are thinking there's a secondary secret source. There is not, it all comes from MoPH reports. That ministry is controlled by Anutin.

[ThailandRyan]

8 minutes ago, LawrenceN said:

See, here's the thing for you, pmh2009, and the other naysayers. It's not feasible to test the entire population. I agree, there are flaws in the methodology and the resulting data. However, what we've got is a statistically significant sample, day after day. If the sampling  method has remained constant, the trend is undeniably downward. 

 

The generals are fudging the numbers, you say? So be it. 

 

There's not enough testing, you say? Have it your way. 

 

Rural folks are hiding in the countryside, you say? You're probably right. 

 

If those things are true, they have been true throughout. We have been reading your negative remarks for weeks, which means, even if you're right, those flaws in the method have been factored in for weeks. They're constant. The flaws you dwell on are accounted for in the methodology. All things being equal, the trend is downward. That's good news. 

Downward trend you say.....if it keeps falling they will have to post negative numbers or else they will need to do something else to ensure the closure's they have put in place are backed by some other statistics.  Lets see, "how about we say to the public that the surrounding countries numbers are going through the roof, and so that's why we need to keep all the measures in place for the next several months.  I am not sure what the numbers mean, but if it makes you happy that they are falling, then I have some beachfront property in Las Vegas.

[mehrdad]

It’s all about closing airport,,, 

airport closed and number of new cases dropped because they test and find only travelers with high temperature and send to hospital But many people outside there with no test 

[sandrew33]

Can’t seem to find a link to number of tests? 

 

Was that 37 too? 

[mrmicbkktxl]

1 hour ago, rumak said:

How about the theory ( just a guess ! ) .......... Yes, there is little testing done here.  Add to that

the fact that most Thais will stay home when sick, not run to the hospital unless very sick.

And,  maybe Thais immune system is stronger than those from the US ,  where obesity and general health  IMO   is not as tough as these third world groups.

My GF grew up with barely enough to eat,  used to walk everywhere,  and had to fetch the buffaloes and walk through mud and whatever to get home.  She is one healthy girl !  

So, it could be that many here have been exposed but are not dropping like french fries on

the pavement, or in the fields.   

Just my theory.   Maybe we can all get back to normal life soon ( well, you know, Thailand normal)   ????

Thais ran for every small sh... to hospital since it is free

[Xaos]

35 minutes ago, Grumpy John said:

Pho Ya Ban came around this morning.....apparently to check up on me.   Find out where I been.  No biggy.  About 2 hours later the doctor from the government clinic rang to ask how long I had been in Thailand.  I guess they were worried I had just arrived.  Which is strange as 6 days out of 7 I will see Pho Ya Ban up at the PA hut when I am walking the dogs at much the same time every day!  6:30am is our designated walk time.  

Bro what? Where u live?

Bizarre 

 

 

 

https://youtu.be/nmTCOwZK0jU

Edited April 7, 2020 by Xaos

[iaminwa]

1 hour ago, hydraides said:

That's because they are testing hardly anyone. How many thai's can splash out on 5000 baht test?

 

That's a whole month salary compensation from the government

Yep, correct. 

 

Comparison of testing:

 

 

 

 

[LeamchabangLarry]

1 hour ago, rumak said:

Thais will stay home when sick, not run to the hospital unless very sick.

This has not been my experience.

My experience is, "Don't get rain on your head or you'll get sick."

and

Head to the hospital at every small little sign of possible sickness...  "It is but only 20 baht"

[Xaos]

46 minutes ago, NCC1701A said:

what am i going to do with all these cans of mackerel in tomato sauce?

Ppl returning toilet paper palets in US

[Xaos]

4 minutes ago, iaminwa said:

Yep, correct. 

 

Comparison of testing:

 

 

 

 

80% tests give false positive. 

 

They test for dna material they not percect. Whole testing is bad ifnu research in it. If u get flu shot it give u positive for covid19 

[offset]

3 minutes ago, iaminwa said:

Yep, correct. 

 

Comparison of testing:

 

 

 

 

Or you could look at Japan 3906 cases and 365 test per million population

 

The thing I was thinking if the government were fudging the total case figures why they not fudge the testing number which would be much easier to hide

[Kaopad999]

5 minutes ago, LeamchabangLarry said:

This has not been my experience.

My experience is, "Don't get rain on your head or you'll get sick."

and

Head to the hospital at every small little sign of possible sickness...  "It is but only 20 baht"

100% spot on! 
I've also heard the "Don't get rain on your head or you'll get sick." line many times lol ! ????

[AlQaholic]

Just thought I would post some useful links in case not posted previously:

https://opendata.data.go.th/dataset/covid-19-daily

https://www.bing.com/covid

https://covidtracker.5lab.co/

As for the statistics, It seems fairly realistic. Look at Finland with similar number of fatal cases, their reported total is about the same as Thailand.

Edited April 7, 2020 by AlQaholic

[transam]

44 minutes ago, Grumpy John said:

Pho Ya Ban came around this morning.....apparently to check up on me.   Find out where I been.  No biggy.  About 2 hours later the doctor from the government clinic rang to ask how long I had been in Thailand.  I guess they were worried I had just arrived.  Which is strange as 6 days out of 7 I will see Pho Ya Ban up at the PA hut when I am walking the dogs at much the same time every day!  6:30am is our designated walk time.  

The clinic doctor has your phone number...Hmmmmm....  ????

[cornishcarlos]

21 minutes ago, rabas said:

Do you have any actual data, numbers for this?

 

The head of the WHO delegation that went to Wuhan later gave a presentation with lots of charts. He said they were very surprised not to find evidence of the large numbers of mild unreported cases.

 

This is a press conference transcript, what I saw was a video data presentation by the head.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/transcripts/joint-mission-press-conference-script-english-final.pdf?sfvrsn=51c90b9e_2

 

Here is a different video, see about the 3:00 minute mark

 

 

 

This is the guy that is the subject of a petition to have him removed, correct ?

This is the organisation that has kind of tried to play down the spread until it couldn't do it any longer ?? 

Who said travel restrictions weren't necessary... Masks weren't necessary ?????

 

Forgive me for not giving it much credit...

Edited April 7, 2020 by cornishcarlos

[toofarnorth]

1 hour ago, rumak said:

How about the theory ( just a guess ! ) .......... Yes, there is little testing done here.  Add to that

the fact that most Thais will stay home when sick, not run to the hospital unless very sick.

And,  maybe Thais immune system is stronger than those from the US ,  where obesity and general health  IMO   is not as tough as these third world groups.

My GF grew up with barely enough to eat,  used to walk everywhere,  and had to fetch the buffaloes and walk through mud and whatever to get home.  She is one healthy girl !  

So, it could be that many here have been exposed but are not dropping like french fries on

the pavement, or in the fields.   

Just my theory.   Maybe we can all get back to normal life soon ( well, you know, Thailand normal)   ????

Funny that. My wife had to fetch the buffaloes as well at night . How many on here had their gfs or wives doing the same.

My wife was slim and fit about 12 years ago , now life is too easy , put on pounds in weight and takes pounds out of my pension.

[Yadon Toploy]

Again, without knowing how many were tested it is completely useless information.

[sammieuk1]

The Lourdes of the world without much effort open the airports let us stranded back????

[toofarnorth]

1 hour ago, Phuketshrew said:

Maybe you mean T.A.T. ? T.O.T. is the telephone organization.

Just what I thought , paid TOT at Lotus today , don't need to hear from them . Of course if my internet goes noms up I doubt if I will get any sense fron Tesco Lotus.

[edwardandtubs]

The government is crediting the curfew with this decrease, which is obvious nonsense because the incubation time is up to 14 days and the symptoms develop over the following week.

[JCP108]

1 hour ago, NCC1701A said:

what am i going to do with all these cans of mackerel in tomato sauce?

I talked the wife into getting the cans without the tomato sauce...can put it in more stuff later. We have plenty, though. Let's hope we can joke and not really need it. I still don't trust the numbers. 

[DrTuner]

26 minutes ago, sandrew33 said:

Can’t seem to find a link to number of tests? 

You won't. It's a closely guarded secret at MoPH. So closely they deleted the number of pending tests from reports that had already been published.

[thequietman]

1 hour ago, z42 said:

If these numbers are to be believed then i wonder why the Education ministry is pushing for a delay to term starting from May to July.

 

Seems illogical that if the curve is dipping to look for even greater lockdown measures

Better that it is gone for good when it comes to school and Uni's. Thousands of people are in attendance every day, so the opportunity for mass spread in enormous. Better safe than sorry later. 

 

Beside, I lecture at a uni, so let me have this welcome and deserved time off. ????