Why is Thailand not reopening?

[mauGR1]

4 minutes ago, chessman said:

and plenty of them are not. The majority I would say.

 

But even if it was 50/50, Herd immunity is the riskiest solution in the sense that it will have the most deaths in the short term. In such a scenario it is completely understandable that governments choose the option that seems less risky.

With all the respect for the elders, i am 60, shutting down the whole world is not just risky, it's pure madness.

While i can understand the governments having a cautious approach, it should be clear by now that we are heading into a global disaster much worse than any virus.

[chessman]

2 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

And there is no evidence that Covid is going to kill up to 200 million people as predicted by WHO and was the main basis upon which the shutdowns were implemented worldwide.

This argument is like a man riding a motorbike at 100mph everywhere and one day his friend sees him and tells him he should slow down because he will kill himself. So the man slows down but is really inconvenienced because he has less time and is often late to meet his girlfriend. Then one day his girlfriend snaps at the friend and says "you're an idiot, you said he would die but look, he's still alive!"

 

If you can, please try to answer my question above about that expert. I'm genuinely curious.

 

 

[AussieBob18]

1 minute ago, chessman said:

But even if it was 50/50, Herd immunity is the riskiest solution in the sense that it will have the most deaths in the short term. In such a scenario it is completely understandable that governments choose the option that seems less risky.

There is logic in that approach. And that is exactly the decision they made - and that is also why it will be so hard to release the shutdowns (risky).   However, a far more rational approach would have been to implement 'graduated' shutdowns, rather than a total shutdown like China did.  The evidence to show that last statement is correct is everywhere - 61 people have died in Australia.  61 - why the ***** has over a million been put out of work and the economy crashed.  Anyone arguing against that is obviously unaware that 144 people die every day in Australia - up to 8 people die every day from the flu (up to 3000 annually). What the ***** are we doing when it is only 61 in 2 months - 2-3 a day?  Most are over 80 - only 1 below 60 and he was apparently very sick (underlying medical problems).  A gradual approach would have allowed the shutdowns to respond to reality, but instead they did what they know - they all shut it all down - they all followed the leader.

 

Massive Over Reaction - period.  The baby has been thrown out with the water. And the only way to change course is to 'bang on the captains door' and demand a change.  The more who complain and shout the better.  Chicken Little was wrong - but he keeps saying 'soon' - shut him up and open up things again - build the herd immunity.  Send the bill to China. There aint no vaccine coming - not for a long time - isolate the old and let the young build immunities - that will work - this will not.

[chessman]

3 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

With all the respect for the elders, i am 60, shutting down the whole world is not just risky, it's pure madness.

While i can understand the governments having a cautious approach, it should be clear by now that we are heading into a global disaster much worse than any virus.

Fair enough, I don't think that is so clear though. The predictions that show a big fall in GDP this year are showing an even bigger gain next year. The US stock market has rallied in the last few days as the number of deaths seemed to have passed their peak.

 

and of course, this virus was going to be very bad for the economy whatever we did. Sweden (supposedly the model) also had a disastrous month in terms of unemployment, with record numbers signing up for benefits. The social and economic costs of a health service being overwhelmed would be catastrophic.

 

It is an unknown though.

[AussieBob18]

3 minutes ago, chessman said:

This argument is like a man riding a motorbike at 100mph everywhere and one day his friend sees him and tells him he should slow down because he will kill himself. So the man slows down but is really inconvenienced because he has less time and is often late to meet his girlfriend. Then one day his girlfriend snaps at the friend and says "you're an idiot, you said he would die but look, he's still alive!"

If you can, please try to answer my question above about that expert. I'm genuinely curious.

 

If that is your logic - a stupid person speeding on a motorbike analogy, compared to a Govt mandated shutdown for a virus that is killing less people than the seasonal flu (so far) then you have a logic gap that I cannot bridge - and I certainly will not try any further. 

 

But let me leave you with this:  What can we be certain of from history? That experts have been wrong innumerable times, by vast amounts, and with catastrophic results. Yet today there are still people who think that anyone who disagrees with them must be either bad or not know what he is talking about.   Thomas Powell

 

And this:  Einstein was wrong - from 1905 until 1919 when his theory was proven to be correct by Eddlestone, the vast majority of experts (educated in Newton's Laws) stated emphatically that Einstein was wrong - and it was obvious that a patent clerk could not be correct against Professors and such like educated experts.  The same thing was said by the experts about Darwin.

 

Mate - become more of a skeptic - the experts only know that they have been taught - they cannot see outside their limited scope of education - many refuse to even try - and none of them have been forced out of a job in 2020 ????

 

 

 

 

 

 

[chessman]

7 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

There is logic in that approach. And that is exactly the decision they made - and that is also why it will be so hard to release the shutdowns (risky).   However, a far more rational approach would have been to implement 'graduated' shutdowns, rather than a total shutdown like China did.  The evidence to show that last statement is correct is everywhere - 61 people have died in Australia.  61 - why the ***** has over a million been put out of work and the economy crashed.  Anyone arguing against that is obviously unaware that 144 people die every day in Australia - up to 8 people die every day from the flu (up to 3000 annually). What the ***** are we doing when it is only 61 in 2 months - 2-3 a day?  Most are over 80 - only 1 below 60 and he was apparently very sick (underlying medical problems).  A gradual approach would have allowed the shutdowns to respond to reality, but instead they did what they know - they all shut it all down - they all followed the leader.

 

I kind of agree here, on the margins there could have been more sensible 'graduated' shutdowns but also, that's what we thought in the UK. We kept schools and shops open a lot longer than other European countries and now most of the models are showing that the UK will be the worst affected country in Europe. Maybe the models are based on the fact that we we closed the schools and shops too late and they'll be wrong! I hope so!!

Instinctively I feel there's a point where the virus starts spreading uncontrollably and governments are terrified of reaching that point. Thankfully Australia and Thailand sit on the safe side of that point but feel they need to be ultra-cautious. I see the logic in that approach.

[Skallywag]

11 hours ago, Brunolem said:

There is going to be a huge price to pay, and the longer they last, the higher the price.

Yes, gamble your life because you cannot work for a month. (actually just 27 days since bars/restaurants closed) 

 

Us older guys with pre-existing conditions have only one price to pay = death

 

No worries, when it does open up, I will still be using a mask and hand sanitizer

[mauGR1]

2 minutes ago, chessman said:

Fair enough, I don't think that is so clear though. The predictions that show a big fall in GDP this year are showing an even bigger gain next year. The US stock market has rallied in the last few days as the number of deaths seemed to have passed their peak.

 

and of course, this virus was going to be very bad for the economy whatever we did. Sweden (supposedly the model) also had a disastrous month in terms of unemployment, with record numbers signing up for benefits. The social and economic costs of a health service being overwhelmed would be catastrophic.

 

It is an unknown though.

Well, on the island where i live, i can see people queuing for free food, and i guess that everywhere in the world there are billions scared to death about their future, with many already losing their mental health.

Living in fear will have more detrimental effects on the population, i just wonder for how long the hungry masses will stay civilized, and i'm sure that the politicians too are confused about what's next.

[DaRoadrunner]

9 hours ago, BobbyL said:

In terms of opening up again, I think it will start gradually from May. People have to get back to work.

Open up too soon and we'll never beat this thing.

 

9 hours ago, BobbyL said:

However, it would be beneficial for the government to announce its full plans

Plan? They haven't a clue, just following what the rest of the world is doing. Know how the Thai operate, image must be maintained at all cost. Who knows how many Thais died at home and never even went to hospital?

 

The Thais were slow to close the border and continued to welcome tourists from China. Just what do you think the real figures are for Thailand?

 

On the plus side I will say that the Thai people have taken to the idea of social distancing, masks and alcohol. So long as they stay the course we will win. Fail and you can kiss recovery and the economy goodbye. Total anarchy could result.

Edited April 14, 2020 by DaRoadrunner

[chessman]

10 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

f that is your logic - a stupid person speeding on a motorbike analogy, compared to a Govt mandated shutdown for a virus that is killing less people than the seasonal flu (so far) then you have a logic gap that I cannot bridge

and if you cannot see how that analogy is apt then I'm not sure you're thinking logically. Or you could back up your claims and show the WHO prediction that with extreme social distancing measures 200 million people would die. Or did you just make that up?

 

It is easy to find examples of experts who are wrong. But most of them are right, most of the time. Look at the amazing leaps forward our civilization has taken in the last few hundred years, the leaps forward in healthcare, education, technology. That way of thinking has got us where we are, it's not a time to ignore that at a time of crisis. We are standing on the shoulder of giants.

 

 

[DaRoadrunner]

13 minutes ago, chessman said:

Look at the amazing leaps forward our civilization has taken in the last few hundred years, the leaps forward in healthcare, education, technology. That way of thinking has got us where we are,

Where we are?..... Up <deleted> creek sans paddle. Man lost his way long ago and is Hell bent on destruction of the only planet he has. All in the name of greed.

Edited April 14, 2020 by DaRoadrunner

[Monomial]

30 minutes ago, chessman said:

and if you cannot see how that analogy is apt then I'm not sure you're thinking logically. Or you could back up your claims and show the WHO prediction that with extreme social distancing measures 200 million people would die. Or did you just make that up?

 

It is easy to find examples of experts who are wrong. But most of them are right, most of the time. Look at the amazing leaps forward our civilization has taken in the last few hundred years, the leaps forward in healthcare, education, technology. That way of thinking has got us where we are, it's not a time to ignore that at a time of crisis. We are standing on the shoulder of giants.

 

 

 

What has got us where we are is accepting the scientific method. And as that incontrovertible genius, Richard Feynman says, "Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts."  That is the greatest definition of science ever spoken.

 

AussieBob is correct when he says "be a skeptic."  If you can't determine it for yourself, don't simply accept it. Try until you can reproduce what they have said, and then you can finally see the flaws and weaknesses that went into the hypothesis. And you can determine how to test its predictions.

 

I have a hard time accepting this global action because the reasoning for it is all hidden behind closed doors. There has been no public discussion. No attempts to educate the public. No dissemination far and wide of all the raw data and all the assumptions that have gone into these models. In many ways, the WHO has actually behaved worse than China. In over 2 months, there has not been one educational special by the WHO trying to explain how they arrived at their conclusions, and offering up testable predictions to determine whether they are correct.  All I have heard is "trust us". Guess what? That is neither sensible nor science.

 

We need to be less trusting of those who are making decisions. They are just people. They have agendas, just like we all do. And their personal values may not correspond with ours. In the end, they are doing what is best for them, not for us. What do they care if the economy is ruined? They are wealthy and in a position where the shutdown doesn't affect them. The virus might though. So their bias is obvious.

 

I am not saying I have all the answers. I am saying however, that I don't believe they do either. And from where I sit, shutting down the economy like this does more harm than good. Many agree with me. I want my concerns heard and addressed.  Everyone who has gone along with this shutdown needs to take collective responsibility for the pain they have caused. There needs to be significant reparations paid to those they've injured.

 

The wealthy do not get a free pass. Not this time.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by Monomial

[DaRoadrunner]

1 hour ago, mauGR1 said:

While i can understand the governments having a cautious approach, it should be clear by now that we are heading into a global disaster much worse than any virus.

This virus makes me realise how little it would take much to wipe us all out. Man was already on the road to Hell anyway.

[DaRoadrunner]

11 minutes ago, Monomial said:

Everyone who has gone along with this shutdown needs to take collective responsibility for the pain they have caused.

Pain they caused.... with all things in life, there is always a price to pay. No shut down and we are dead. The economy can take it up to as point. If we don't recover within two months there will be a deep recession.

 

Perhaps the virus will teach man to take better care of his world. It's not like we have another planet to go to.

[Monomial]

8 minutes ago, DaRoadrunner said:

Pain they caused.... with all things in life, there is always a price to pay. No shut down and we are dead. The economy can take it up to as point. If we don't recover within two months there will be a deep recession.

 

Perhaps the virus will teach man to take better care of his world. It's not like we have another planet to go to.

 

Who gets the benefits and who bears the burden is a choice. In this case, the wealthy and powerful have chosen to reap the benefits, and passed the majority of the burden onto the poor.

 

Not all choices are equal.

 

Edit: "No shut down and we are all dead."  Really? You honestly think that? Try a little bit of perspective.

Edited April 14, 2020 by Monomial

[chessman]

25 minutes ago, Monomial said:

AussieBob is correct when he says "be a skeptic." 

I believe I have a healthy skepticism , I am the one saying that nobody really knows what the best response is but the basic figures are worrying enough to warrant a response and in that situation naturally governments are cautious. Especially with Italy as such a cautionary tale.
 

I want to see and think about both sides, you posted a video promoting herd immunity and I watched it! As far as I understand it, he is making such a basic error that I am pretty sure I am misunderstanding it! I did ask about it but nobody answered.

[Sharp]

19 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

Mate - you are quoting reported numbers as if they are hard facts.

 

Have you seen the official reported deathgs from accidents on the roads?  We all know they under report the numbers,  and just one way they do that is to only report those that die at the scene.

 

Have you seen the official reported tourists entering Thailand from TAT?  We all know they over report the numbers, and just one way they do that is they report all entries into Thailand as a 'tourist'.

 

Whereas most deaths in Italy and Spain and other places are being reported as a Covid death - whether directly related to Covid or not.   Unlikely to be a high percentage, but that is occuring in the west (google it). But in Thailand, it is a very high likelihood that they are under-reporting the numbers by a large amount - given that they falsify most other numbers.   You can believe them all you want - I dont.

 

And the answer is:  'When China opens their borders for tourists to go out - Thailand will do the same for Chinese tourists coming in'.  

 

 

 

 

Have to agree!

[Henryford]

The whole reaction to Covid here seems bizarre. 100 Thais die every day on the roads and no one bats an eyelid. 40 die of Covid in 3 months and the whole place is shut down. No country in the world is quoting total death figures so it is hard to tell whether covid has increased the total death rate or is just part of it.

[peterb17]

19 hours ago, donnacha said:

Thailand was, by far, the favorite foreign destination for the citizens of Wuhan. The second most popular destination, Japan, did not even have half as many.

In the lead up to the busiest time for tourism from China, the Thai government made a decision that supported the interests of their big hotel chains and the Chinese government, at the expense of the citizens of Thailand.

We can surmise, with some confidence, that this decision has impacted Thai medical services because the Thai government quickly brought in reporting restrictions and harsh new rules for medical personnel who talked to the media.

We can surmise that there was a conscious attempt to hide the presence of C-19 in the kingdom because they we know the ridiculously narrow criteria under which tests were even allowed to happen, and we know that the protocol applied to those tests was heavily geared towards delivering negative results (two labs, if one got a positive while the other got a negative, the returned result was negative - anyone who has ever worked in a lab knows that this is the exact opposite of how it should work. This approach is unique in medical history to Thailand alone). 

Perhaps, you might say, the Thai government got lucky. Perhaps those masses of Wuhan tourists were all uninfected, unlike the ones, half as many, who visited Japan. Perhaps the Thai people in January, February, and March were more robust than the Thai people in April, when every Italian tourist seemed to leave a trail of infected Thais in his wake. All those millions of Chinese tourists had no impact at all, but the few thousand European tourists still wandering Thailand in late March and early April have somehow resulted in the current numbers?

The grotty, horrible truth is that, since early February, doctors have been forbidden, under threat of imprisonment, from calling any of the upsurge in severe respiratory illness Covid-19 unless it is first confirmed with a test ... but they have not been allowed to carry out the test unless the patient had recently been to China. Think about that. 

Sick Thai's have been sent home to die with little or no medical intervention. The ones lucky enough to die in the hospitals received the wrong treatment. The "official" outbreak was only allowed to start in April once the testing protocol scam became too risky to continue. Now, yes, you are seeing "plausible" figures, but the thousands who had already died in the main Chinese tourists areas will never be acknowledged. It is a Tiananmen event - it never happened, but everyone in the country knows it did. 


 

The one thing we have learned is that the virus can infect other people very easily .

 

So all these thousands of infected patients sent home would have infected many more -in if villages where extended families ( often with elderly grandparents etc ) there would have been devastation.

 

Where is your EVIDENCE? Where are the links to your assertion that medical staff have been threatened.

Why are the temples not having vast queues for burning ? 
Social media posts - which are very popular here - where are they .

 

I have a suspicion that you might be very frustrated that you are unable to get a flight home and join in with the nutcases burning down 5G masts - same mindset  

[mstevens]

21 hours ago, donnacha said:

Few things are sadder than a farang who lives in Thailand and, yet, has now idea how it operates.

 

Probably the best single sentence I have ever read on this forum. Bravo!

[sezze]

50 minutes ago, peterb17 said:

The one thing we have learned is that the virus can infect other people very easily .

 

So all these thousands of infected patients sent home would have infected many more -in if villages where extended families ( often with elderly grandparents etc ) there would have been devastation.

 

Where is your EVIDENCE? Where are the links to your assertion that medical staff have been threatened.

Why are the temples not having vast queues for burning ? 
Social media posts - which are very popular here - where are they .

 

I have a suspicion that you might be very frustrated that you are unable to get a flight home and join in with the nutcases burning down 5G masts - same mindset  

In the beginning i was very suspicious of the numbers . But the evidence just isn't there . In big parts of the world the amount of extra deaths is stunning . Opening a newspaper here and you see the pages of death announcements , the local undertaker has many notices up his window . I got 1 far relative who died of corona and i know a few who are sick . In Thailand i do not hear these stories , which means they just aren't there . You can have all kinds of suspicions about Thailand , i have also , but when it isn't there , it just isn't there. Future will hold the answer how and why , but as long as you not hear the stories of sick and death come along , tested or not , you do not have to look further .

[DUNROAMIN]

No brainer if your an educated person. Look what happened to Japan and Singapore!!!!

[RotBenz8888]

13 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

The Swedish approach is the correct one.  Protect those over 70 and those with medical issues by social isolation and let the others deal with it and build up the herd immunity.  Many people follow the official narrative because they think they are experts and know. But history has proven that the experts are often wrong. when it is something new.  And in this case they are most certainly wrong - social isolation is a bad strategy.

 

There will not be a vaccine, so there is no point in protecting everyone - that will only make it worse next time.  SARS and MERS have not disappeared - they are latent and inactive. Both are coronaviruses and they have still not been able to develop a vaccine for either  (since 2003 and 2009). Same for Hep C Ebola HIV and many other viruses.  Covid is here to stay - and there aint no vaccine coming. 

 

The best way to deal with it - now we know it will not kills millions - is for the herd to build immunity. Then it will die down and become dormant as all viruses do when it cannot infect new hosts (or kills them all).  If all the Teens 20s 30s 40s fit 50s and strong 60s get it and deal with it, then that stops it being spread around - it will burn out.

Agreed

[heybuz]

22 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

"The problem is that it makes little sense"

This is all only a problem for rational thinking human beings mate.  

 

It is the same back here in Aust.  More people are dieing of lung cancer every day (20+) than are dieing from Covid19 a day (2-3) - and yet buying cigarettes and smoking is still legal and has not been shut down.  It is all not rational.

 

But which Govt wants to be the first to adopt the Sweden model?  The risk is that they get it wrong and the Covid deaths increase, then the media will crucify them.  As in anywhere in world, the media here is very left wing, so the right wing Govt knows they are on a hiding to nothing. They either play it too safe and get attacked for killing the economy, or they open too soon and get cricuified for killing people. Someone once said the media is the enemy of the people - so true in many instances.  But at least the media here can expose corruption and incompetence - unlike in China.

 

 

Media,left wing has Murdoch changed his spots most of the media on oz is controlled by Murdoch and is definitely not left wing.

[Rod the Sod]

I visit a Hospital twice a week in Bangkok for Physio. Yesterday it was deserted. When I tried to book for next Saturday I was told it depended if there were enough patients to warrant offering the service. They tell me they have no CV patients at all. It does kind of suggest that there are not people dying on the street and tens of thousands are ill and not being tested. CV doesn't differentiate between rich and poor. I am sure that it is a different story in different areas but I can only report what I see.

 

Atb RtS

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, Rod the Sod said:

I visit a Hospital twice a week in Bangkok for Physio. Yesterday it was deserted. When I tried to book for next Saturday I was told it depended if there were enough patients to warrant offering the service. They tell me they have no CV patients at all. It does kind of suggest that there are not people dying on the street and tens of thousands are ill and not being tested. CV doesn't differentiate between rich and poor. I am sure that it is a different story in different areas but I can only report what I see.

 

Atb RtS

Name the hospital please

[mauGR1]

11 hours ago, DaRoadrunner said:

This virus makes me realise how little it would take much to wipe us all out. Man was already on the road to Hell anyway.

Yes, there is something unsustainable in the life style of too many.

Perhaps, when the virus will the tamed one way or another, we should rethink a more sustainable and environment-friendly economy.

[Max69xl]

23 hours ago, donnacha said:

They are keeping their heads down because they know that the official figures are complete nonsense. They intend to open up at the same time as the countries that supply most of their tourists. In the meantime, they are hoping the massive hidden outbreak will burn itself out before anyone notices the unusually high number of people dying from "pneumonia" this year.
 

 

You are making the mistake of assuming there are advanced thinkers in the Thai government. Like a rich Thai schoolboy who has paid a smarter classmate to write his essay, they have no interest in a realistic grade. They want an A+.
 

 

Many believe this because the Thai Covid-19 number are, indeed, not true.
 

 

There's a reason for the very low number of official cases. They test so very few. At the end of last week they had just tested ~80,000 people. That's a joke if you compare it to other countries and don't forget that we're talking about a population of ~69 million people + foreigners.

[Tropposurfer]

On 4/14/2020 at 11:20 AM, donnacha said:

They are keeping their heads down because they know that the official figures are complete nonsense. They intend to open up at the same time as the countries that supply most of their tourists. In the meantime, they are hoping the massive hidden outbreak will burn itself out before anyone notices the unusually high number of people dying from "pneumonia" this year.
 

 

You are making the mistake of assuming there are advanced thinkers in the Thai government. Like a rich Thai schoolboy who has paid a smarter classmate to write his essay, they have no interest in a realistic grade. They want an A+.
 

 

Many believe this because the Thai Covid-19 number are, indeed, not true.
 

 

Rubbish ! Especially "the massive hidden outbreak" bit. 

[Burma Bill]

Part of article in Yahoo News (UK) today, 15 April and I will say no more:-

 

Edward Snowden, the whistleblower who leaked information on America’s National Security Agency, has warned that governments may use the coronavirus to curtail freedoms. 

Snowden, in an interview with Vice, said that governments may take advantage of the pandemic to impose authoritarian rules on populations.