Why is Thailand not reopening?

[PerkinsCuthbert]

Those who are credulous enough to believe the official figures for almost anything in Thailand might reflect on the overweening importance to the economy that tourism has assumed over the last twenty to thirty years; then think about the knock-on effects that shutting down tourism for any length of time has on the whole of Thai society. 

Which is a long-winded way of saying that, true to type, those in power will sooner rather than later choose to resume the tourist gravy train over any potential detriment to health of the population.

[AussieBob18]

13 hours ago, chessman said:

and if you cannot see how that analogy is apt then I'm not sure you're thinking logically. Or you could back up your claims and show the WHO prediction that with extreme social distancing measures 200 million people would die. Or did you just make that up?

It is easy to find examples of experts who are wrong. But most of them are right, most of the time. Look at the amazing leaps forward our civilization has taken in the last few hundred years, the leaps forward in healthcare, education, technology. That way of thinking has got us where we are, it's not a time to ignore that at a time of crisis. We are standing on the shoulder of giants.

You have again missed the points that Thomas Powell made - experts are often wrong and experts are not always right - and some people think anyone that disagrees with an expert is  bad or wrong.  And I have given you enough examples of incorrect experts - especially those who said Einstein and Darwin were wrong.

So rather than me give you all the proof you need from a certified accredited PHD so you can think or do anything in your life correctly, let me ask you to provide one 'expert' on the Covid19 virus and how to deal with it.

 

You cannot - from virologists to health authorities - they are all new to this unique once in a lifetime occurence - what you do have is the opinions of 'experts' in related fields - there are not PHDs in Covid19 - there are not Degrees in Covid19 - they will come years from now, when they study the evidence - the real hindsighted proven evidence. Right now it is opinions - and many experts in related fields who are non-aligned (can speak out and not lose job/grant) are saying that the lockdowns should be eased soon - others are saying they should never have been 'all in' as herd immunity was the best solution. You are 'hearing' the loud ones - the WHO and CDC 'aligned' ones - just watch when things reveal thermselves to be not as bad and lockdowns can be eased - they will suddenly quickly echo the official - and year/s from now when they realsie herd immunity was the best solution watch them change their position.

[NoshowJones]

22 hours ago, donnacha said:

Thailand was, by far, the favorite foreign destination for the citizens of Wuhan. The second most popular destination, Japan, did not even have half as many.

In the lead up to the busiest time for tourism from China, the Thai government made a decision that supported the interests of their big hotel chains and the Chinese government, at the expense of the citizens of Thailand.

We can surmise, with some confidence, that this decision has impacted Thai medical services because the Thai government quickly brought in reporting restrictions and harsh new rules for medical personnel who talked to the media.

We can surmise that there was a conscious attempt to hide the presence of C-19 in the kingdom because they we know the ridiculously narrow criteria under which tests were even allowed to happen, and we know that the protocol applied to those tests was heavily geared towards delivering negative results (two labs, if one got a positive while the other got a negative, the returned result was negative - anyone who has ever worked in a lab knows that this is the exact opposite of how it should work. This approach is unique in medical history to Thailand alone). 

Perhaps, you might say, the Thai government got lucky. Perhaps those masses of Wuhan tourists were all uninfected, unlike the ones, half as many, who visited Japan. Perhaps the Thai people in January, February, and March were more robust than the Thai people in April, when every Italian tourist seemed to leave a trail of infected Thais in his wake. All those millions of Chinese tourists had no impact at all, but the few thousand European tourists still wandering Thailand in late March and early April have somehow resulted in the current numbers?

The grotty, horrible truth is that, since early February, doctors have been forbidden, under threat of imprisonment, from calling any of the upsurge in severe respiratory illness Covid-19 unless it is first confirmed with a test ... but they have not been allowed to carry out the test unless the patient had recently been to China. Think about that. 

Sick Thai's have been sent home to die with little or no medical intervention. The ones lucky enough to die in the hospitals received the wrong treatment. The "official" outbreak was only allowed to start in April once the testing protocol scam became too risky to continue. Now, yes, you are seeing "plausible" figures, but the thousands who had already died in the main Chinese tourists areas will never be acknowledged. It is a Tiananmen event - it never happened, but everyone in the country knows it did. 


 

To me, although none of us can be really sure, this post is probably the nearest to the truth there is where the Virus is concerned.

[abrahamzvi]

On 4/14/2020 at 11:20 AM, donnacha said:

They are keeping their heads down because they know that the official figures are complete nonsense. They intend to open up at the same time as the countries that supply most of their tourists. In the meantime, they are hoping the massive hidden outbreak will burn itself out before anyone notices the unusually high number of people dying from "pneumonia" this year.
 

 

You are making the mistake of assuming there are advanced thinkers in the Thai government. Like a rich Thai schoolboy who has paid a smarter classmate to write his essay, they have no interest in a realistic grade. They want an A+.
 

 

Many believe this because the Thai Covid-19 number are, indeed, not true.
 

 

I wonder where you get such definite information from. Maybe you can inform us?

[AussieBob18]

1 hour ago, heybuz said:

Media,left wing has Murdoch changed his spots most of the media on oz is controlled by Murdoch and is definitely not left wing.

Mate things have changed somewhat. Come election time last year they were somewhat neutral - not much positive - that is why it was surprising he won. Not quite as bad as when Trump won when most of the media was pro Clinton, but definitely very surprising.  And as you prtobably know the media TV is very much dominated by ABC who are relentless left wing supporters - and many lazy journos follow their stories.  But overall I would have to say that Murdoch's ownership of newspapers and his influence through them has declined with their readership decline - a lot.

[Tropposurfer]

23 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

Mate - you are quoting reported numbers as if they are hard facts.

 

Have you seen the official reported deathgs from accidents on the roads?  We all know they under report the numbers,  and just one way they do that is to only report those that die at the scene.

 

Have you seen the official reported tourists entering Thailand from TAT?  We all know they over report the numbers, and just one way they do that is they report all entries into Thailand as a 'tourist'.

 

Whereas most deaths in Italy and Spain and other places are being reported as a Covid death - whether directly related to Covid or not.   Unlikely to be a high percentage, but that is occuring in the west (google it). But in Thailand, it is a very high likelihood that they are under-reporting the numbers by a large amount - given that they falsify most other numbers.   You can believe them all you want - I dont.

 

And the answer is:  'When China opens their borders for tourists to go out - Thailand will do the same for Chinese tourists coming in'.  

 

 

 

 

Where is your proof Italy and Spain are reporting deaths attributed to Covid19 where they aren't due to Covid 19?

Are you suggesting that the nearly 14% death rate (today's figures from Sky News) said as being from Covid in Italy is untrue?

That the hospitals, doctors, hospital administrators, mayors, national health rep's, W.H.O., the world media, news reporters on the ground, are lying about the death toll from this virus? Why would folks do that .... are you suggesting for some underhand reasons?

My next question to ALL is why would countries like Spain and Italy, as tabled examples, place such hard national containment processes with such huge economic, social ramifications on their people unless they were very, very scared/worried of worst scenario's befalling their nations? I'd suggest the death toll at present is just that! 

Are you suggesting something nefarious in these numbers reported by Western nations, some conspiratorial, self-aggrandizing undercurrent (ex Thailand and what you say is Thai propensity, nay, habitual need to over-inflate/tell porky pies for ego and power/control reasons)? 

 

[TheFishman1]

With no Tourist coming in the government kind of shut down I wonder if money is safe here in the Banks TIT

[nickmondo]

i think this topic is ridiculous!

while there are still new cases every day, to open now would be ridiculous.

for me to expand more on this is a waste of my time.

 

[nickmondo]

18 minutes ago, Tropposurfer said:

Where is your proof Italy and Spain are reporting deaths attributed to Covid19 where they aren't due to Covid 19?

Are you suggesting that the nearly 14% death rate (today's figures from Sky News) said as being from Covid in Italy is untrue?

That the hospitals, doctors, hospital administrators, mayors, national health rep's, W.H.O., the world media, news reporters on the ground, are lying about the death toll from this virus? Why would folks do that .... are you suggesting for some underhand reasons?

My next question to ALL is why would countries like Spain and Italy, as tabled examples, place such hard national containment processes with such huge economic, social ramifications on their people unless they were very, very scared/worried of worst scenario's befalling their nations? I'd suggest the death toll at present is just that! 

Are you suggesting something nefarious in these numbers reported by Western nations, some conspiratorial, self-aggrandizing undercurrent (ex Thailand and what you say is Thai propensity, nay, habitual need to over-inflate/tell porky pies for ego and power/control reasons)? 

 

spoke with my Spanish friend yesterday.

He said they did not plan, they did not take it seriously, and they did not put in place restrictions fast enough.

hence the disaster that we have all seen there.

 

[AussieBob18]

13 minutes ago, Tropposurfer said:

Where is your proof Italy and Spain are reporting deaths attributed to Covid19 where they aren't due to Covid 19?

Are you suggesting that the nearly 14% death rate (today's figures from Sky News) said as being from Covid in Italy is untrue?

That the hospitals, doctors, hospital administrators, mayors, national health rep's, W.H.O., the world media, news reporters on the ground, are lying about the death toll from this virus? Why would folks do that .... are you suggesting for some underhand reasons?

My next question to ALL is why would countries like Spain and Italy, as tabled examples, place such hard national containment processes with such huge economic, social ramifications on their people unless they were very, very scared/worried of worst scenario's befalling their nations? I'd suggest the death toll at present is just that! 

Are you suggesting something nefarious in these numbers reported by Western nations, some conspiratorial, self-aggrandizing undercurrent (ex Thailand and what you say is Thai propensity, nay, habitual need to over-inflate/tell porky pies for ego and power/control reasons)? 

I said it is not a high percentage of the deaths - such as deaths by suicide - and I said google it mate - fact but not that high a percentage.  And they are not lying as such - they are over reporting (Italy) or under reporting (Thailand).

 

You can decide you do not to agree with my opinions and provide some information/opinion as to what you believe.

But demanding I prove my opinion to you is the fall back of the 'opinion deficient' unthinker - just as it would be for me to state that you have to show me proof that any opinion of yours is correct.

 

EG- In my opinion it will rain tomorrow - and you want proof??  

[AussieBob18]

8 minutes ago, nickmondo said:

i think this topic is ridiculous!

while there are still new cases every day, to open now would be ridiculous.

for me to expand more on this is a waste of my time.

 

Then go away

[AussieBob18]

30 minutes ago, abrahamzvi said:

I wonder where you get such definite information from. Maybe you can inform us?

Another one !!!   My expert/source versus your expert/source.

 

Form an opinion mate and give it to us with some reasons why you have that opinion. 

 

That is what a forum is about - an exchange of optinions and ideas and thoughts - it is not a fight between who has the best expert/source.

 

Edited April 15, 2020 by AussieBob18

[sometimewoodworker]

On 4/14/2020 at 11:44 AM, OneMoreFarang said:

And if many more people are sick why are the hospitals not full of them?

In 2 hospitals I know that the numbers are very different from the numbers announced. In 1 there is at least 1 case with no report of any, in another the repost states 8 while the actual number is over 50. This information is days old so those numbers will probably have changed. It also relates to only 2 of the many hospitals in my area.

 

Do you know that the hospitals are not full of patients? If so how?

 

 

[Thingamabob]

On 4/14/2020 at 11:51 AM, OneMoreFarang said:

Luckily we don't have Trump in charge here.

Have a look at the news from the USA and you see what happens when things go wrong.

News from the US is that New York, New York State and California are in trouble. Most of the rest of the US is not at all bad.    

[sometimewoodworker]

52 minutes ago, Tropposurfer said:

Are you suggesting that the nearly 14% death rate (today's figures from Sky News) said as being from Covid in Italy is untrue?

The poster may not have suggested that but I am saying precisely that the death rate is untrue. What is true is that Italy is reporting 162,488 total cases and 21,067 deaths (12.966% of reported infections) 

 

The first figure is grossly under reporting the number of infections due in part to the lack of availability of tests so only those with symptoms (probably severe) will get tested. The second figure may be under reporting death numbers for similar reasons.

 

That the numbers of deaths are much higher than they cold have been is true, that we should do everything possible to reduce the infection rate is also true

[OneMoreFarang]

14 minutes ago, Thingamabob said:

News from the US is that New York, New York State and California are in trouble. Most of the rest of the US is not at all bad.    

I know, it looks so much better in the fly-over states. There is a reason for that name...

 

[sometimewoodworker]

20 minutes ago, Thingamabob said:

News from the US is that New York, New York State and California are in trouble. Most of the rest of the US is not at all bad.    

Really??? Facts please

 

Edited April 15, 2020 by sometimewoodworker

[Centrum]

On 4/14/2020 at 11:53 AM, AussieBob18 said:

 

 

 As in anywhere in world, the media here is very left wing, so the right wing Govt knows they are on a hiding to nothing. They either play it too safe and get attacked for killing the economy, or they open too soon and get cricuified for killing people.   

Aussie media is left wing????  I guess the Catholic Church would be rabid communists in your eyes.

On 4/14/2020 at 11:53 AM, AussieBob18 said:

Someone once said the media is the enemy of the people - so true in many instances.

 

Yes, this is true. Enemy of the people - friends of the bosses.

[chessman]

1 hour ago, AussieBob18 said:

Right now it is opinions - and many experts in related fields who are non-aligned (can speak out and not lose job/grant) are saying that the lockdowns should be eased soon - others are saying they should never have been 'all in' as herd immunity was the best solution.

And you have a political bias that is skewing your thinking. You are right that there are many disagreements but not so much disagreement that this virus is more contagious than flu and has a higher mortality rate. Those 2 simple statistics are enough to cause a lot of worry. 
 

I posted before, a Harvard professor of history and epidemiology who couldn’t believe that herd immunity was even being considered. 

[Odysseus123]

3 minutes ago, Centrum said:

Aussie media is left wing????  I guess the Catholic Church would be rabid communists in your eyes.

Yes..just ask Rupert..he'll tell you that's true.

[gamesgplayemail]

For the first time I do not believe that officials are lying. They are still idiots, but this time not liars.

 

[smutcakes]

3 hours ago, Rod the Sod said:

I visit a Hospital twice a week in Bangkok for Physio. Yesterday it was deserted. When I tried to book for next Saturday I was told it depended if there were enough patients to warrant offering the service. They tell me they have no CV patients at all. It does kind of suggest that there are not people dying on the street and tens of thousands are ill and not being tested. CV doesn't differentiate between rich and poor. I am sure that it is a different story in different areas but I can only report what I see.

 

Atb RtS

Apparently according to this thread, you just DONT GET Thailand.

The Government is lying, everyone is lying, people are being sent home to die with no medicine...

Everyone at hospitals have been threatened with new laws so they are all to scared to speak....

If you don't know this you DONT KNOW Thailand

[Isaan sailor]

I think they will wait until the USD drops to 30 on the Baht.  That way, Americans won’t come and hordes of Chinese will—just like in the bad old days...

[smutcakes]

On 4/14/2020 at 1:02 PM, donnacha said:

There are literally reporting restrictions in place, and the medical workers face imprisonment if they speak to journalists anyway.

What is the point of your ceaseless arguing if you are incapable of retaining basic information?

 

I have not seen anything about these reporting restrictions. Have you got a link to where they are announced?

Or a link to the Royal Gazzette when it was made law?

I know a couple ER doctors at Samitivej (Head of ER) well, play sport with them 3-4 times a week and neither of them have ever mentioned any restrictions. I will LINE one of them now specifically to him.

[DrTuner]

6 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

I think they will wait until the USD drops to 30 on the Baht.  That way, Americans won’t come and hordes of Chinese will—just like in the bad old days...

Even if it was 80 baht to $, who would come to a country that has no widespread testing and as the result completely unknown situation on the ground? It's the same reason countries have lists of other countries they let people come in from. Those countries have transparent and efficient testing and countermeasure networks.

[Rod the Sod]

3 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Name the hospital please

Samitivej Sukhumvit

Edited April 15, 2020 by Rod the Sod
typo

[Rod the Sod]

8 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

I have not seen anything about these reporting restrictions. Have you got a link to where they are announced?

Or a link to the Royal Gazzette when it was made law?

I know a couple ER doctors at Samitivej (Head of ER) well, play sport with them 3-4 times a week and neither of them have ever mentioned any restrictions. I will LINE one of them now specifically to him.

Same Hospital. It is private and caters for Japanese, Thai and Ex-Pat. I have had in-depth discussions on CV with my Specialist and I can tell you he is not being gagged by anyone.

[smutcakes]

12 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Even if it was 80 baht to $, who would come to a country that has no widespread testing and as the result completely unknown situation on the ground? It's the same reason countries have lists of other countries they let people come in from. Those countries have transparent and efficient testing and countermeasure networks.

I would thanks, and i am sure many others would. Nowhere seems particularly much better or worse than here. Every country has its own problems. Rather sit it out here than in Europe. No planes are going anywhere at the moment.

If its so bad why did you not leave to your home country when this started?

[smutcakes]

8 minutes ago, Rod the Sod said:

Same Hospital. It is private and caters for Japanese, Thai and Ex-Pat. I have had in-depth discussions on CV with my Specialist and I can tell you he is not being gagged by anyone.

We probably just don't understand Thailand...

[DrTuner]

3 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

If its so bad why did you not leave to your home country when this started?

My family is here, I was in the middle of a slow exit plan, but not to my country of origin. I am revising that plan now, but finding a good destination is a challenge. Montenegro is at the top of the list right now.