Why is Thailand not reopening?

[Brunolem]

With covid 19 numbers like those of Thailand, most if not all countries would be reopening, if they were not already fully reopened for business.

 

So why is Thailand going the other way, pushing for more restrictions and more delays?

 

Many believe that the Thai covid 19 numbers are not true.

 

The problem is that it makes little sense.

 

If they were going to tip the scales, in order to impose restrictions on the population, they'd rather manipulate the numbers up, rather than down.

 

The lower the numbers, the more they invite questions about their policy.

 

In another thread, the reason advanced was that the neighboring countries still had relatively high numbers, and that Thailand had to remain careful.

 

But why would that matter, with all the borders closed?

 

With higher numbers than Thailand, Austria is planning to reopen, never mind what is going on in Italy, or wherever else. 

 

These prolonged "holidays" are not free.

 

There is going to be a huge price to pay, and the longer they last, the higher the price.

 

 

 

 

 

[mauGR1]

I think that a little caution is completely understandable.

With the lack of tourists the economy will have to suffer anyway, at least for a few months.

[donnacha]

26 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

So why is Thailand going the other way, pushing for more restrictions and more delays?

They are keeping their heads down because they know that the official figures are complete nonsense. They intend to open up at the same time as the countries that supply most of their tourists. In the meantime, they are hoping the massive hidden outbreak will burn itself out before anyone notices the unusually high number of people dying from "pneumonia" this year.
 

 

28 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

If they were going to tip the scales, in order to impose restrictions on the population, they'd rather manipulate the numbers up, rather than down.

You are making the mistake of assuming there are advanced thinkers in the Thai government. Like a rich Thai schoolboy who has paid a smarter classmate to write his essay, they have no interest in a realistic grade. They want an A+.
 

 

33 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Many believe that the Thai covid 19 numbers are not true.

Many believe this because the Thai Covid-19 number are, indeed, not true.
 

 

[Enoon]

 

They'll make a big noise for a short time (don't be surprised to see the emergency lifted on the 30th).

 

Because it's all for show.

 

Just like everything else they do.

 

The land of top gloss with no undercoat, thin veneer and dodgy underpinnings.

 

 

[Donga]

People need to differentiate between case numbers and death numbers. Case numbers would be understated as they are in many countries where testing has not been widespread and processed differ. 

But I believe Thai death numbers are much more accurate and very very impressive. 
 

The border controls, masks, hand gel and temp checks everywhere, distancing discipline as well as heat & humidity advantage have done wonders. Amongst the lowest deaths per million at less than 1 compared to the Euros 120 -320. You can’t ignore this data. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[OneMoreFarang]

22 minutes ago, donnacha said:

They are keeping their heads down because they know that the official figures are complete nonsense. They intend to open up at the same time as the countries that supply most of their tourists. In the meantime, they are hoping the massive hidden outbreak will burn itself out before anyone notices the unusually high number of people dying from "pneumonia" this year.
 

 

You are making the mistake of assuming there are advanced thinkers in the Thai government. Like a rich Thai schoolboy who has paid a smarter classmate to write his essay, they have no interest in a realistic grade. They want an A+.
 

 

Many believe this because the Thai Covid-19 number are, indeed, not true.
 

 

Where does your insider knowledge come from?

What are the real numbers?

And if many more people are sick why are the hospitals not full of them? Or are they all dying at home and call it something different?

[OneMoreFarang]

From yesterday and today:

[OneMoreFarang]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

With covid 19 numbers like those of Thailand, most if not all countries would be reopening, if they were not already fully reopened for business.

Luckily we don't have Trump in charge here.

Have a look at the news from the USA and you see what happens when things go wrong.

[AussieBob18]

"The problem is that it makes little sense"

This is all only a problem for rational thinking human beings mate.  

 

It is the same back here in Aust.  More people are dieing of lung cancer every day (20+) than are dieing from Covid19 a day (2-3) - and yet buying cigarettes and smoking is still legal and has not been shut down.  It is all not rational.

 

But which Govt wants to be the first to adopt the Sweden model?  The risk is that they get it wrong and the Covid deaths increase, then the media will crucify them.  As in anywhere in world, the media here is very left wing, so the right wing Govt knows they are on a hiding to nothing. They either play it too safe and get attacked for killing the economy, or they open too soon and get cricuified for killing people. Someone once said the media is the enemy of the people - so true in many instances.  But at least the media here can expose corruption and incompetence - unlike in China.

 

 

[ThailandRyan]

25 minutes ago, Donga said:

People need to differentiate between case numbers and death numbers. Case numbers would be understated as they are in many countries where testing has not been widespread and processed differ. 

But I believe Thai death numbers are much more accurate and very very impressive. 
 

The border controls, masks, hand gel and temp checks everywhere, distancing discipline as well as heat & humidity advantage have done wonders. Amongst the lowest deaths per million at less than 1 compared to the Euros 120 -320. You can’t ignore this data. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Glad you believe the deaths reported are accurate, I for one am fairly sure these would be higher if they were to test those who they say died of pneumonia, and or other respiratory illnesses, and those that passed away in the villages with only family around and no autopsy or testing performed.  We will never know if the three relatives of my ex-wife who passed away at home at the end of February were related or not.  They were seen at the local government hospital, given meds, and sent home.  They were told to return if they worsened, but instead they just stayed in the arms of family and were assisted until they passed away. The government hospital where they reside in a village in the province of Udon Thani, is always packed on a daily basis, even before this pandemic, and they would have waited all day to be seen again.  They were late 50's and early 60's and had traveled down here to Bangkok during the Chinese New Year for the festivities before returning home and becoming ill. No one will ever know and all the family cares about is that family arrived from all over for the funerals and cremations in March.  My ex-wife flew in with our daughter from the US, spent two weeks in Udon, before she and our daughter returned to the US State of Ohio, and were quarantined at home for 14 days.

 

So there you have some additional information to maybe think about whether or not the death figures are correct.  I would like to see the stats from this year so far for respiratory related illness deaths such as pneumonia, to compare with past years at the same time.  This might give an idea of whether there was in increase in those which may be attributed to this virus, but were not.  In the end I do not think it matters, as the whole world is in a tight spot now, and whether or not it's warranted is something we can discuss until we are blue in the face  In the end does it matter, because we have no control over the situation until the Governments open up the economies again.  Maybe this thing goes through a second wave, who knows what that time will bring.  Just stay safe, and take care of yourself and family.

Edited April 14, 2020 by ThailandRyan

[rumak]

11 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Luckily we don't have Trump in charge here.

Have a look at the news from the USA and you see what happens when things go wrong.

tell us where things go wrong  .    oh, forgot, you do that all the time. 

let it go, man.    there are thousands of reasons why things go wrong   

 

[Brunolem]

59 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

I think that a little caution is completely understandable.

With the lack of tourists the economy will have to suffer anyway, at least for a few months.

A little caution certainly, but what about postponing the school reopening to July, when France, hundreds of times more affected than Thailand, announced yesterday that its schools will reopen in one month, on May 11th?

[AussieBob18]

18 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

From yesterday and today:

Mate - you are quoting reported numbers as if they are hard facts.

 

Have you seen the official reported deathgs from accidents on the roads?  We all know they under report the numbers,  and just one way they do that is to only report those that die at the scene.

 

Have you seen the official reported tourists entering Thailand from TAT?  We all know they over report the numbers, and just one way they do that is they report all entries into Thailand as a 'tourist'.

 

Whereas most deaths in Italy and Spain and other places are being reported as a Covid death - whether directly related to Covid or not.   Unlikely to be a high percentage, but that is occuring in the west (google it). But in Thailand, it is a very high likelihood that they are under-reporting the numbers by a large amount - given that they falsify most other numbers.   You can believe them all you want - I dont.

 

And the answer is:  'When China opens their borders for tourists to go out - Thailand will do the same for Chinese tourists coming in'.  

 

 

 

 

[mauGR1]

2 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

A little caution certainly, but what about postponing the school reopening to July, when France, hundreds of times more affected than Thailand, announced yesterday that its schools will reopen in one month, on May 11th?

A lot of questions, of course.

Perhaps Asian countries cannot yet believe how lucky they are, compared to some European countries.

The good thing is that people are not dropping like flies, so in a week or 2 we can relax a bit, hopefully.

[Brunolem]

23 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Luckily we don't have Trump in charge here.

Have a look at the news from the USA and you see what happens when things go wrong.

Never mind who is in charge, at some point someone has to decide when to reopen... what are the acceptable numbers... 

 

Many countries are in the process of doing it... Austria, Spain, France... and they are in a much more difficult situation than Thailand. 

 

I am not saying that Thailand should reopen tomorrow, but that it should provide a time frame, a planning of sorts, so that the population and the businesses would have some idea of what to expect. 

 

[FarFlungFalang]

Brazil now has the 10th highest number of deaths and slowly working it's way up the list and being on the equator and kind of goes against the hot humid weather trend.

[donnacha]

41 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Where does your insider knowledge come from?

What are the real numbers?

And if many more people are sick why are the hospitals not full of them? Or are they all dying at home and call it something different?

Few things are sadder than a farang who lives in Thailand and, yet, has now idea how it operates.

Out of some deeply-rooted, servile instinct, you choose to believe the government line even when simple common sense should make what is happening, right in front of your eyes, obvious to you.

Everyone in Thailand knows what is actually happening. If you want to know, talk to a Thai doctor, because you clearly won't accept anything that the more experienced expats here have explained to you, again and again. Maybe ask that doctor how many of his patients have been coming down with an unusually bad pneumonia this year. Maybe ask him about the law hurriedly introduced to stop him and all other medical workers saying anything to the media.

You are an ideologue. I have rarely seen you go more than a few posts without somehow dragging Trump into an unrelated discussion, and always with the same blind zeal. Even those in the Thai government would be uncomfortable to see how zealous you are in their defense. They certainly don't believe all this nonsense, not for a second.  


 

Edited April 14, 2020 by donnacha

[Brunolem]

8 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

Mate - you are quoting reported numbers as if they are hard facts.

 

While it makes (political) sense to under report road deaths, and to over report tourist arrivals, it make much less sense to under report covid 19 deaths and at the same time act as if the country was facing armageddon... 

[Rimmer]

Off topic ramble removed.

Stay on topic please or risk a posting suspension!!

[chessman]

5 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

it make much less sense to under report covid 19 deaths and at the same time act as if the country was facing armageddon... 

but it is difficult to attribute deaths at home to Covid 19

[AussieBob18]

12 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

While it makes (political) sense to under report road deaths, and to over report tourist arrivals, it make much less sense to under report covid 19 deaths and at the same time act as if the country was facing armageddon... 

They claimed to be in total control and they are not willing to let the real numbers show they never were.

They are reflecting the policies of China which are also accused of under-reorting the Covid cases/deaths.

Plus several other reasons I can think of - but I have to go.

 

[Odysseus123]

"Nah....take two paracetamol and your family can take you home.."

[BobbyL]

In terms of opening up again, I think it will start gradually from May. People have to get back to work. However, it would be beneficial for the government to announce its full plans, rather than like what happened today from the Nonthaburi governor announcing they are reopening places from next week. 

 

As for allowing tourists to come back, that should remain closed for months until the global situation is improved. 

[Chivas]

At some point in time the catastrophic effects on the economy will outway the needs of protecting the people in Thailand.

However visitors shouldn't expect to be visiting Thailand anytime this year. Vaccines and eradication worldwide first

[donnacha]

24 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

While it makes (political) sense to under report road deaths, and to over report tourist arrivals, it make much less sense to under report covid 19 deaths and at the same time act as if the country was facing armageddon... 

It is all about timing.

They did not want to acknowledge the problem at all until a significant number of other countries were struggling with outbreaks too. As the most popular destination, by far, for tourists from Wuhan, to have admitted to a big outbreak in February would have been embarrassing to China, which was trying to underplay the seriousness of the problem and persuade countries to not close their borders to Chinese travelers.

Don't forget China's original claim that there was no human-to-human transmissibility, a brutally self-serving lie that has cost the world dearly. It is no coincidence that the regimes of the countries most dependent on Chinese patronage - Thailand and Cambodia - were the most blasé about the problem.

We know that Thailand made it almost impossible to get a test. We know that until late in March you could not get one at all unless you had a travel history that ruled out the possibility that you picked it up in Thailand. I mean, how much more obvious could they have made it that they did not want to hear about anything suggesting an ongoing outbreak?

We know that they deployed a ridiculous testing protocol that could only reduce the number of positive results, but then changed that once word got out. Magically, that was when the number of cases began to rise, and every day the focus was then put on the cases that had flown in from Europe, not China, not community transmission within Thailand itself.

Now the time is fine to admit to a small crisis. Smaller than Malaysia, smaller than the Philippines, smaller than Indonesia, and magically later than everyone else. Everything that happened before April can now be swept under the carpet, and the junta will use their "success" to further legitimize their ongoing systematic destruction of the democratic opposition.

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by donnacha

[Brunolem]

4 minutes ago, BobbyL said:

In terms of opening up again, I think it will start gradually from May. People have to get back to work. However, it would be beneficial for the government to announce its full plans, rather than like what happened today from the Nonthaburi governor announcing they are reopening places from next week. 

 

As for allowing tourists to come back, that should remain closed for months until the global situation is improved. 

Nonthaburi is one of the worst affected provinces, if I remember correctly... 

 

Otherwise, yes, the plans should be announced long in advance... this is my point... 

 

Don't worry about tourists, they won't be back anytime soon. 

 

Borders open or not, people are going to have much more pressing issues to deal with, than travelling abroad. 

 

[Grumpy John]

1 hour ago, Enoon said:

 

They'll make a big noise for a short time (don't be surprised to see the emergency lifted on the 30th).

 

Because it's all for show.

 

Just like everything else they do.

 

The land of top gloss with no undercoat, thin veneer and dodgy underpinnings.

 

 

"The land of top gloss with no undercoat, thin veneer and dodgy underpinnings."  555!  That reminds me of a container load of air compressors I purchased from China some years ago...the only thing you forgot was rust!

[luckyluke]

50 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

As in anywhere in world, the media here is very left wing

Some even pretend that education is the same.

Never understood/understand why the right wing didn't/don't do nothing about this.

They give the impression of being powerless and, excepting whining about it, just accepting it.

 

 

 

 

[2 is 1]

3 minutes ago, Odysseus123 said:

"Nah....take two paracetamol and your family can take you home.."

Yeah , why in Thailand so many people are in hospital? If you look how many seems to get covid-19!

How many village Thai even read news, they believe "neibor" hear say sht! And what have notice many news what can find in english, never been published in Thai! So the many infected people stay in home coz they are scared to hospital!

Think they die there, can´t work coz stay in hospital, can´t go back home. Even relatives can´t join there like in normal case. Half family sleep under your hospital bed! And thai nurses not clean your sht or take your <deleted> bottle away. Your family do that. So why even sick you want go hospital, only if you almost die!

[shy coconut]

1 hour ago, OneMoreFarang said:

From yesterday and today:

Interesting infection and death rates from Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam....