Lowest number of Covid-19 cases in a month raises hopes of easing lockdown restrictions

[rtco]

2 hours ago, realfunster said:

 

Dear Nation, please may I introduce you to the revolutionary data presentation concept known as a 'table'. What a bloody mess that is above...

 

Anyway, seemingly good news again for Thailand. 

You mean something like this ... 

[offset]

Just now, DrTuner said:

While most by now understand the confirmed count is a heavily filtered number, here's a clincher for those who still doubt it's "creative accounting": On the day when test numbers suddenly rose from 27k (IIRC) to 70kplus, there was no blip in confirmations whatsoever. That's because the 50k extra was private hospital results and their positive are not confirmed. 

 

MoPH knows the real count. The Confirmed is what's used as a propaganda tool. At least they do have a view of the real situation and have instituted measures accordingly. The re-opening is more politically motivated.

I have said many times the government do not give testing figures out every day if you look yesterday figures they are the same as the figures today

[FarFlungFalang]

4 minutes ago, offset said:

I was not sure I believed the figures given out at first, but now I am not so sure, there are 15 provinces that not had any new cases in the last 28 days 9 of them have not had 1 case, surely someone in one of these provinces would say if they were tested positive for the virus and not counted

Were there any tests done in these provinces?If no that may answer your question.

[berybert]

56 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Germany are doing well. I wonder how Thailand would cope if it had 147,000 cases?

So if Thailand isn't testing does that mean people aren't dying ?

Say there are 147,000 with covid who haven't been tested and 4000 had died wouldn't the bodies be pilling up somewhere ?

Not testing doesn't stop people dying.

[transam]

But wait, when they see that the road casualty numbers have plummeted, something that they have been unable to solve, they may keep the lock down no beer swilling  in place.... ????

[leither69]

2 hours ago, schlog said:

Time to celebrate that low number. Uturn for alc ban need today!

I think you've already been on it!!

[Soikhaonoiken]

Excellent news, just hope the figures are correct, and not just a smoke screen to open up the tourist industry.... ????

[offset]

3 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Were there any tests done in these provinces?If no that may answer your question.

If people had the virus and just sent home to carry on as normal I think you would see many more cases than you see today so I would guess that there are testing

[dave moir]

2 hours ago, schlog said:

Time to celebrate that low number. Uturn for alc ban need today!

No chance of that now they have a total ban on the sale and consumption of alcohol it'll be a long time before we see change

[DrTuner]

11 minutes ago, offset said:

I have said many times the government do not give testing figures out every day if you look yesterday figures they are the same as the figures today

Apparently worldometer picks them up from TV broadcasts and the mouthpiece there pulls them from some hidden stats. 

[Em150]

 

Well you know why the numbers in Thailand are so low of course? It's due to the classic 'hand in a wasp for treatment'. Spotted it on Covid tracker this morning. It all makes perfect sense now

  

 

 

[473geo]

Credit due to Thailand accepting the low numbers are correct, the need for restrictions can be lifted. will be a great relief to many people to start making a living again, even if the borders remain closed. No point in delaying the 'opening up' and releasing the stranglehold on the economy if the transmission rate is heading fast for zero, get the schools back and the economy moving

 

One word of caution in all the euphoria of the 'release', Thailand is heading into the annual cooler rainy season, the virus can morph into more aggressive types, and it would appear will change and infect rapidly, possibly before a new upsurge is detected

 

[jimn]

1 hour ago, Raymonddiaz said:

Sorry to spoil a little bit this news but no massive testing means no cases. The policy of burying one’s head in the sand is not the right strategy. The government should conduct massive testing of the public as the German government successfully are doing.

 

I agree that Germany is doing an excellent job, however your not right about Thailand. For some unknown reason the virus has not taken hold over here, I think its the intense heat. Yes I agree the lack of testing means few cases. However it what you say is true we would see hospitals full to the brim and many deaths. The absence of both means you are wrong.

[LeamchabangLarry]

3 minutes ago, 473geo said:

Thailand is heading into the annual cooler rainy season

dude, only season I've known here in a decade is one that is  hot 35 degrees C until a break of 2 weeks some time in late Dec/early January and then it's right back to 35 degrees

[offset]

9 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Apparently worldometer picks them up from TV broadcasts and the mouthpiece there pulls them from some hidden stats. 

Where did you get these figures from (suddenly rose from 27k (IIRC) to 70kplus) I have only seen one place that quotes testing figures and the 27k was the same for 4 or 5 days before changing to 70 plus

[totally thaied up]

The coming storm by Boon Vanasin (copy and search) from the paper that cannot be linked (another poster said this as well) is a must read. It is 5 days old but gives you a very good scope of what could happen if things went sideways from this point and how some hospitals are handling things.

[jimn]

34 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

This one should be halal: https://thethaiger.com/news/national/thailand-news-today-friday-april-17

 

I read the coming storm and its a nonsence story. Its also in the business section not any health section because the guy is not a doctor, he is an administrator at some small private hopital. Also he claims the hospitals are full, well thats nonsence as well because only 700 or so people are in hospital with the virus across the whole of Thailand.

Edited April 21, 2020 by jimn

[FarFlungFalang]

13 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Apparently worldometer picks them up from TV broadcasts and the mouthpiece there pulls them from some hidden stats. 

For a second I thought you were going to say they pulled them from where the sun don't shine which I guess is where the hidden stats are kept!

[FarFlungFalang]

2 minutes ago, jimn said:

I read the coming storm and its a nonsence story. Its also in the business section not any health section because the guy is not a doctor, he is an administrator at some small private hopital. Also he claims the hospitals are full, well thats nonsence as well because only 700 or so people are in hospital with the virus across the whole of Thailand.

Do you know there are only 700 people with the virus in hospital or is that the figure released by the administration?

[DrTuner]

21 minutes ago, offset said:

Where did you get these figures from (suddenly rose from 27k (IIRC) to 70kplus) I have only seen one place that quotes testing figures and the 27k was the same for 4 or 5 days before changing to 70 plus

It was this, apparently leaked image of an internal MoPH document: 

 

EDIT: This seems to be the original source: https://www.sanook.com/news/8073934/

 

EDIT2: so it was 25k and not 27k, but thereabouts. 

Edited April 21, 2020 by DrTuner

[473geo]

18 minutes ago, LeamchabangLarry said:

dude, only season I've known here in a decade is one that is  hot 35 degrees C until a break of 2 weeks some time in late Dec/early January and then it's right back to 35 degrees

Always happy to be corrected, perhaps you would be so kind as to drop in some valid annual daily temperature stats that show 35 degrees all year apart from 2 weeks you mention - lets start with stats for Phuket, Bangkok, and Chang Mai  all showing 35 degrees throughout the year excepting the 2 weeks

Edited April 21, 2020 by 473geo

[DrTuner]

12 minutes ago, jimn said:

I read the coming storm and its a nonsence story. Its also in the business section not any health section because the guy is not a doctor, he is an administrator at some small private hopital. Also he claims the hospitals are full, well thats nonsence as well because only 700 or so people are in hospital with the virus across the whole of Thailand.

Sure, sure, just a chairman of a tiny hospital: https://www.thg.co.th/en

[manzan]

24 minutes ago, sandrew33 said:

Thailand has tested 2,000 per million. Singapore is at 16,000. Australia 17,000. Thailand is in a low end group of testing countries whose results are considered wildly unreliable as result of the low tests. 

 

Everyone agrees that lifting of restrictions requires a wide testing, tracing and quick acting isolation regime. Thailand has, on available evidence, none of those systems in place. 
 

The lifting of restrictions is just going to see a surge in new cases unless the testing regime is massively broadened and improved. 

What do you mean "Everyone agrees that lifting restrictions requires wide testing"?

 

Many normal real people experts do not agree on that and have gone on record to state so.

 

a lot of the institutions who are pushing for more and longer lockdowns and "wide testing" with this unvalidated test are politically motivated institutions who get funding from specific foundations who are using this crisis to push through some very worrying plans for permanent restrictions of freedom. I would advise everyone to please go and look this up yourself.

 

I am not an expert in this field, but the below is what i have learned about this.

 

"improving" the testing regime by testing healthy people is only going to inflate the numbers due to the false positives, and certainly will mean more lockdowns and more restrictions and more economic devastation, where none of that is required. Personally i don't think anything less then the Zombie Apocalypse itself justifies what is currently being done.

 

It is important to note that this PCR test that is widely used to take these important decisions on, is still unvalidated (last time i checked anyways), and even validated PCR tests have well known issues with false positives which are inherent to this method of testing.

 

How this PCR test works is that they are not actually testing for the virus itself but they are testing for RNA sequence assumed to be unique to the virus by taking a sample and then greatly amplifying it by cycling it the maximum allowed cycles (45 cycles is the maximum and that is what this test does, after 45 cycles the "background noise" makes it impossible to test at all.  in comparison most PCR tests such as HIV cycle 25-30 times)

 

Take a look at this fact below, which in my opinion gives food for thought on the false positives:

- 50% to 80% of test-positive individuals remain symptom-free. Even among the 70 to 79 year old persons about 60% remain symptom-free,  many more show only mild symptoms.

 

One way of saying it is those people are carrying the disease , because they tested positive for RNA, and are symptom free, yet another way of saying it is that they do not have the virus because they are not sick, they just tested positive for a fragment of RNA.

 

[LeamchabangLarry]

9 minutes ago, 473geo said:

Always happy to be corrected, perhaps you would be so kind as to drop in some valid annual daily temperature stats that show 35 degrees all year apart from 2 weeks you mention - lets start with stats for Phuket, Bangkok, and Chang Mai  all showing 35 degrees throughout the year excepting the 2 weeks

sounds like you have some research to do.  I'm not doing it for you

[offset]

6 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

It was this, apparently leaked image of an internal MoPH document: 

 

Thank you reading that states that 71000+ were taken up to the 4th of April and the figures given buy the CCSA spokesman yesterday was 142000+ so it means that about 71000 test have been made over 16 days so about 4400 a day not many but and I say but if the figures of new cases is correct I can see why they are so low

 

He states that the Worldometers figures were wrong

[473geo]

2 minutes ago, LeamchabangLarry said:

sounds like you have some research to do.  I'm not doing it for you

Of course not, why would you look for something that does not exist?  I didn't expect you too, I expected this exact response ????

[maddermax]

The first priority is to get an accurate, reliable and convenient testing method to identify those who have the virus. Following that is the ongoing effort to develop a vaccine so that we can kill the <deleted> for once and for all!

[LeamchabangLarry]

2 minutes ago, 473geo said:

Of course not, why would you look for something that does not exist?  I didn't expect you too, I expected this exact response ????

roll with a lighthearted joke buddy.  no need to pull out the can of stale Yuban

[Raymonddiaz]

2 hours ago, offset said:

Germany are doing so well over 147000 cases and only 4862 deaths which is over 100 times more deaths than here 

Because they are real testing there but not here.

[DrTuner]

16 minutes ago, offset said:

Thank you reading that states that 71000+ were taken up to the 4th of April and the figures given buy the CCSA spokesman yesterday was 142000+ so it means that about 71000 test have been made over 16 days so about 4400 a day not many but and I say but if the figures of new cases is correct I can see why they are so low

 

He states that the Worldometers figures were wrong

Yes the total number of tests is probably what MoPH has on file and is parroted out on TV. But the tests in private hospitals that are positive do not end up in what we see daily, the "Confirmed cases", because of this:

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_en_21022020.pdf

Quote

3. Confirmed case is defined as a PUI who has tested positive for genetic materials of SARS-CoV-2 by
PCR from two (2) reference laboratories, or by genetic sequencing, or by culture.

 

You have to be a PUI, which f.ex. asymptomatic positives from private hospitals don't fit into ( https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/g_CPG.pdf ) and then still get through two tests at reference labs (Which are at NIH and Army) to end up in the Confirmed stats that we see.

 

BTW interesting new update in this one:

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/g_CPG.pdf

 

Perhaps somebody can elaborate on what those F1,M1,M2 etc levels mean.