Poll signals strengthening support for Biden over Trump in three battleground states

[webfact]

Poll signals strengthening support for Biden over Trump in three battleground states

By Chris Kahn

 

FILE PHOTO: Hand sanitizer and disinfectant wipes are seen on a table as voters cast their ballots in the Democratic primary in Warren, Michigan, U.S. March 10, 2020. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook/File Photo

 

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Republican President Donald Trump trails Democrat Joe Biden among registered voters in three battleground states that he narrowly carried in 2016 and are seen as crucial to winning November's election, according to an Ipsos public opinion poll conducted exclusively for Reuters.

 

The poll, which ran from April 15-20 in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, showed 45% of registered voters said they would support Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, while 39% said they would support Trump.

 

It also found that Biden, vice president under Trump's predecessor Barack Obama, has an advantage of 3 percentage points among registered voters in Wisconsin, 6 points in Pennsylvania and 8 points in Michigan.

 

Click https://tmsnrt.rs/2xQlo5O for GRAPHIC

 

The Ipsos poll shows Biden has maintained or slightly improved his lead over Trump in those states over the past few months, even though his campaign and the presidential primaries have been sidelined by the coronavirus pandemic. The United States has the most confirmed cases and deaths in the world with at least 821,000 people infected and at least 46,000 deaths.

 

Biden's advantage in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania over Trump averaged 3 to 4 percentage points in February and March, according to an aggregation of survey results by Real Clear Politics.

 

That would also suggest that Trump has not experienced an uptick in support in those states, even though he has commanded the public’s attention at the helm of the federal response to the coronavirus crisis and sought to cast himself as a “wartime president” fighting an invisible enemy.

 

A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll found on Tuesday that Biden has an 8-point advantage over Trump nationally, as support for him rose nationally in each of the last three weeks while disapproval of Trump's response to the pandemic grew.

 

To be sure, anything can happen with several months to go before the Nov. 3 general election. State polls in 2016 showed Democrat Hillary Clinton enjoyed wide leads over Trump early in the election cycle in those same states before she lost them to Trump on Election Day, all of them by less than a percentage point.

 

Trump is still a little more popular in those battlegrounds than he is nationally, in part thanks to his appeal to some blue-collar white voters.

 

Yet the number of registered voters who disapprove of Trump outnumber those who approve of him in all three states, the Ipsos poll found. In Wisconsin, 47% of registered voters approve of the president, while 53% disapprove. In Pennsylvania, 48% approve and 52% disapprove, and in Michigan, 44% approve and 56% disapprove.

 

The coronavirus is by far the top concern for residents of all three states. More than 70,000 people have tested positive in all three states combined and 4,500 have died.

 

The poll found that 48% of people living in those states said the coronavirus was the most important problem facing their community, which is more than the number of people who cited other top concerns such as the economy (15%), healthcare (12%) or immigration (2%).

 

When asked what they thought about the U.S. government’s response to the virus, about 47% of registered voters in all three states said they approved of the way Trump was dealing with it - lower than 67% approval of their state governor's handling of the crisis.

 

Neither Biden nor Trump appear to have much of an advantage when it comes to public perceptions of who is better suited to lead the country out of the pandemic and the economic damage that has ensued.

 

About 50% of registered voters said they thought Biden was better for the job, while 47% said it was Trump.

 

The Ipsos poll was conducted online with 612 registered voters in Michigan, 578 in Pennsylvania and 645 in Wisconsin. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points for the entire region and 5 points for each state.

 

(Reporting by Chris Kahn, Editing by Soyoung Kim and Grant McCool)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-04-24

 

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[frenetic]

fivethirtyeight.com doesn't eve bother with Presidential polls at this juncture. It's way too early for them to be meaningful or predictive.

[cmarshall]

It's not registered voters whose count matters, but likely voters.

 

The best site for aggregating polls and tracking the EV count is:  electoral-vote.com.  

[Tug]

It’s good to see that many trump supporters are starting to see how unsuited trump is to handle the duty’s of potus enough of the lies enough of the constant trolling enough of the embarrassment let’s vote the dude out come November 

[Cryingdick]

Where did Bloomberg now with his massive piles of money to buy ads for Joe? If Mike doesn't keep his word Joe is massively behind in fund raising. You can ask opinions on polls but when you start polling people by asking for money that's stronger. 

 

Biden being afraid of the debates is funny. There is no reason not to do them with no studio audience. He also has a problem that the far left is still going to eat him alive. 

 

Come on man, China is our friends...

[Puchaiyank]

What a show...Trump tooting his own horn using suspect data...Biden attempting to complete a coherent sentence...the Dem VP candidate trying to cover for Biden's senior moments and Mike Pense repeating how wonderful Trump is with a face that says: " Please do not believe me!"...????

[PatOngo]

33 minutes ago, Tug said:

enough of the embarrassment let’s vote the dude out come November 

Please! Do yourselves (Americans) and the world a favour! 

[simple1]

1 hour ago, Mama Noodle said:

No mail in voting. 

Why do you support voter suppression in a democratic society?

 

Today it was reported Covid-19 is now picking up tempo in traditional Red States as Covid-19 spreads out from urban centres, will have to wait and see what effect the spread will have come 11/20.

Edited April 23, 2020 by simple1

[PatOngo]

20 minutes ago, Cryingdick said:

He also has a problem that the far left is still going to eat him alive. 

The majority of Americans have a problem! Trump is making your country look foolish!

[Cryingdick]

1 minute ago, PatOngo said:

The majority of Americans have a problem! Trump is making your country look foolish!

 

Either respond to the point I made or stay out of it. This approach of taking everything out of context like this is tiresome and puerile to put it plainly.

[Mama Noodle]

1 hour ago, Mama Noodle said:

No mail in voting. 

 

2 minutes ago, simple1 said:

Why do you support voter suppression?

 

If there was ever a perfect example of a straw man argument, Mr. Simple1 has it in spades. 

[Mama Noodle]

4 minutes ago, simple1 said:

Today it was reported Covid-19 is now picking up tempo in traditional Red States as Covid-19 spreads out from urban centres, will have to wait and see what effect the spread will have come 11/20.

 

So today it was reported by the same jerks in the media looking for their 'gotcha' moment that covid 19 is picking up tempo in red states (flyover country as its referred to by theses same elites) after being exported from their blue states to rural areas. 

 

So apparently this is another hurr duur gotcha moment ????

[Chomper Higgot]

1 hour ago, frenetic said:

fivethirtyeight.com doesn't eve bother with Presidential polls at this juncture. It's way too early for them to be meaningful or predictive.

But they do track approval v disapproval, Trump is currently at 43.4 Approve v 52.6 Disapprove, the gap has widened by 4 percentage points since April 6.

 

He needs to keep up his daily TV Campaign rants on the Taxpayer’s Dime, they’ Working wonders. 

[metisdead]

Off topic trolling posts about absentee/mail in voting and the replies have been removed. 

 

Other troll posts posted for the purpose of trolling have been removed.

[DoctorG]

31 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

But they do track approval v disapproval, Trump is currently at 43.4 Approve v 52.6 Disapprove, the gap has widened by 4 percentage points since April 6.

 

He needs to keep up his daily TV Campaign rants on the Taxpayer’s Dime, they’ Working wonders. 

The CNN et al decision to stop broadcasting Trump's updates appears to be working. His numbers have slipped since.

[Paul Henry]

Cancel postal voting for all democrat supporters.OK for Trump to use postal vote in Florida.Typical

republican double standards. Facts show postal votes are more secure and less fraudulent than in person voting. But again republicans running scared want voter photo ID. to disadvantage democrats. Now that the Russian interference has been proven and cannot be relied on in 2020 election Trump and his cult will try anything to win the election other than honest and fair play. 

[Mama Noodle]

1 hour ago, simple1 said:

Today it was reported Covid-19 is now picking up tempo in traditional Red States as Covid-19 spreads out from urban centres

 

So blue states spread the virus to red states? 

 

You know, the same red states that the elites call "flyover country" 

[frenetic]

4 minutes ago, DoctorG said:

The CNN et al decision to stop broadcasting Trump's updates appears to be working. His numbers have slipped since.

Given President Trump's behavior during those briefings, I think a better case could be made for the briefings being the cause of his decline. President Trump had a huge opportunity to forego the vitriol and the insults that have characterized his Presidency. He could have used this opportunity to rise above this kind of pettiness and pushed for unity. Instead he opted for the same old same old. Compare his numbers to leaders of other nations who didn't indulge in those kind of antics.

[Tug]

1 hour ago, Cryingdick said:

Where did Bloomberg now with his massive piles of money to buy ads for Joe? If Mike doesn't keep his word Joe is massively behind in fund raising. You can ask opinions on polls but when you start polling people by asking for money that's stronger. 

 

Biden being afraid of the debates is funny. There is no reason not to do them with no studio audience. He also has a problem that the far left is still going to eat him alive. 

 

Come on man, China is our friends...

Trumps never going to debate anyone to much of a track record we all know he cannot handle truth or facts 

[frenetic]

1 hour ago, Cryingdick said:

Where did Bloomberg now with his massive piles of money to buy ads for Joe? If Mike doesn't keep his word Joe is massively behind in fund raising. You can ask opinions on polls but when you start polling people by asking for money that's stronger. 

 

Biden being afraid of the debates is funny. There is no reason not to do them with no studio audience. He also has a problem that the far left is still going to eat him alive. 

 

Come on man, China is our friends...

The think is, thanks to the pandemic, Biden has been nearly invisible. Despite which President Trump keeps on losing ground. So it turns out that the biggest asset Biden has in his favor is Donald Trump.

[simple1]

2 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

 

So blue states spread the virus to red states? 

 

You know, the same red states that the elites call "flyover country" 

kindly cease baiting

[Mama Noodle]

1 minute ago, Tug said:

Trumps never going to debate anyone to much of a track record we all know he cannot handle truth or facts 

 

Trump is chomping at the bit to debate senile ole Biden. Just like hillary. This is a fact. I know you guys don't like facts, but if Biden is put up against Trump, hes gonna get sent to the geriatric home and everyone knows it.  

 

Mark my words, the DNC is gonna use covid19 to shield Biden from the media. 

[metisdead]

A post using trolling content from an unapproved YouTube source has been removed. 

[Mama Noodle]

Just now, simple1 said:

kindly cease baiting

 

Thats precisely what you alluded to, yet im baiting? 

Im all ears if you want to re-frame your argument.

[jimmybcool]

And polls had Hillary in the lead all the way in 2016.  With larger margins.  It is funny how people fooled once by polls geared to get a result are being fooled again by the same polls.  

 

Here is a link to the same polling group from the day before the 2016 election projecting Hillary had a 90% chance of winning.

 

https://www.ipsos.com/en/2016-us-pre-elections-clinton-has-90-chance-winning-november-7

 

There is one poll that matters.  The one on November 3, 2020.  Until then it's all posturing and hope from both sides.  

 

 

[frenetic]

 

12 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

 

So blue states spread the virus to red states? 

 

You know, the same red states that the elites call "flyover country" 

Your post might have some validity if you could point out what blue state policies led to the presence of the virus in red states. But in fact, blue states have been far more restrictive on average than have red states.

[frenetic]

Just now, jimmybcool said:

And polls had Hillary in the lead all the way in 2016.  With larger margins.  It is funny how people fooled once by polls geared to get a result are being fooled again by the same polls.  

 

Here is a link to the same polling group from the day before the 2016 election projecting Hillary had a 90% chance of winning.

 

https://www.ipsos.com/en/2016-us-pre-elections-clinton-has-90-chance-winning-november-7

 

There is one poll that matters.  The one on November 3, 2020.  Until then it's all posturing and hope from both sides.  

 

 

Actually no. The aggregate of poll have Clinton a popular vote lead of anywhere from 2 to 3 points. And the individual states were way underpolled.

[jimmybcool]

1 minute ago, frenetic said:

Actually no. The aggregate of poll have Clinton a popular vote lead of anywhere from 2 to 3 points. And the individual states were way underpolled.

It is the same polling group.  Ipsos.  And they predict in the primary paragraph that they poll Clinton at 90% chance of being elected.  My point being people who put their faith in these polls as gospel are fooling themselves.

 

Here is the first sentence in the article:

 

PRESIDENT: Ipsos’ forecast is that Clinton has a 90% chance of winning the Presidency

[Cryingdick]

25 minutes ago, Tug said:

Trumps never going to debate anyone to much of a track record we all know he cannot handle truth or facts 

 

I think it is Biden who is trying to avoid it.

[Chomper Higgot]

1 minute ago, Cryingdick said:

 

I think it is Biden who is trying to avoid it.

He’s not yet the Democrat candidate, so please explain what it is you allege he is ‘trying to avoid’?