2 hours ago, Nigel Garvie said:

That  is more sensible and less determined to see the negative side. Firstly let's forget those obsessed with the economy *. We are talking about people here (Remember them) 100,000s of people's lives. Will we all suffer from a huge economic downturn, yes of course, we've just had one in 2008, gift of corrupt bankers, this will be worse.  All the same as we say in Scotland "There's nae pockets in a shroud". 

 

Yes I was doubtful about the Thai figures for a long time, I still am to an extent, but if they are completely  wrong where are the piles of dead bodies. You can't hide that sort of thing, you need a huge secret cover up operation, I don't think a bunch of fat old generals are remotely capable of running one. I think it is wiser to accept that - possibly through good fortune, or factors we may not be aware of - Thailand actually has achieved a "good result". The news goes on and on being positive, it's unlikely to be 100% correct, of course, but it is beginning to look churlish to go on and on saying nothing worthwhile has been achieved.

 

* There is a good cartoon doing the rounds where one dinosaur says to another, as a giant meteor flies through the sky, oh <deleted> the economy.

Not trying to be negative, but even in countries where they're doing lots of testing, which they aren't here, they reckon on a large multiplication factor for positive testing, i.e. way more cases than have been actually found in the population. They don't pile bodies up here either and there's no post mortem requirement as in the West. People die and then they burn them in the temple. No certificate, no test. This issue was dealt with by previous posters too. Let's just wait and see though - hopefully all will be fine but I'm down the booze shop tomorrow...

 

8 hours ago, Guderian said:

Does anyone have a reason why Phuket has had such a (relatively) big problem with the virus, at least compared with Pattaya? Is it the Muslim influence from the southern provinces, residents returning home carrying the infection after visiting Malaysia for religious purposes? Or is there something I'm missing?

And muslims don't drink alcohol! It shows how stupid was to ban the alcohol. Most cases now are related to deep South and muslims.

6 hours ago, Pedrogaz said:

I have been critical of the junta....but they have done an outstanding job here and their prompt response has given Thailand a fantastic result. I guess authoritarians are the right choice for certain types of problem.... 

As an aside whenever they were at war, the Romans suspended their constitution and appointed a dictator to deal with the problem....sometimes one head is better than two.

I would say the people took innitiative before the government announcements. They started to wear masks and private sectors increased hygiene practices with hand sanitizers.

4 minutes ago, Thunder26 said:

And muslims don't drink alcohol! It shows how stupid was to ban the alcohol. Most cases now are related to deep South and muslims.

Are you suggesting the the Judeo/Christian/Muslim sky fairy is a worse leader than the whisky bottle, or that the followers are infantile and dim witted. Whatever I recommend Scottish whisky, we will soon need all the export sales we can get!

2 hours ago, Thunder26 said:

I would say the people took innitiative before the government announcements. They started to wear masks and private sectors increased hygiene practices with hand sanitizers.

people have been wearing masks in the main cities for a long time because the air is dangerous to breath, wearing a mask is only useful to stop someone infected from spreading - it offers little protection to those trying to prevent them getting it, not arguing for or against - as long as wearing one doesn't increase the risk then it is what it is, by far the best protection is not getting near other people in enclosed spaces - when I go shopping I try to touch as little as possible but that is almost impossible unless you have an endless supply of gloves or a portable sink with running water with you, I noticed in the shopping center a few days ago people hanging onto the handrail on the escalator - also handling stuff like unpacked veg as they rummage through

 

Aircraft buses trains BTS taxis etc are an absolute no for me 

Edited May 2, 20206 yr by smedly

12 hours ago, smedly said:

interesting words "patients"

 

how many people in total have died in the last 4 months in Thailand, a figure everyone should be interested in, and just as important - what caused their death, since they rarely investigate deaths in Thailand or officially certify unless they happen in hospital or under under a truck that leaves a very big black hole of unknowns - they definitely were not tested for any link to the CV-19 pandemic 

 

 

how it works in Thailand or more accurately "doesn't"

 

This article describes exactly what I am talking about regarding Causes of Death in Thailand and how it is reported and recorded - it basically sums up my multiple posts on Thailand and how they record mortality rates here - in summary - it is extremely vague and wanting and ultimately extremely inaccurate without detail................3rd world

 

 

https://www.biomedcentral.com/collections/Measuring-mortality-in-Thailand

Nobody will ever know the real numbers 

I doubt it. 

If you test only 10.000 (what was published)  people a week you will find only a few with corona virus. 

Some EU countries test up to 300.000-500.000 people, so they find a lot cases more. 

Thailand got low numbers because they expect Chinese coming back. 

Hopefully not. 

 

17 hours ago, rooster59 said:

2,732 have recovered and 180 are still hospitalised, according to official figures.

Yet we are told thousands of medical workers and doctors are exhausted working at the hospitals on the front line, very thin line?

8 hours ago, Thunder26 said:

And muslims don't drink alcohol! It shows how stupid was to ban the alcohol. Most cases now are related to deep South and muslims.

25-50 cases in Yala yesterday , wonder if they will show up on today's update!

4 hours ago, Redline said:

Nobody will ever know the real numbers 

I will be interesting to see the breakdown of deaths across Thailand in Jan, Feb, Mar and April

I would assume 99% of people who die are allocated a death certificate and cause of death

 

Wonder what happened to this guy?

 

https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2020/02/25/pattaya-uk-man-mark-mc-keown-pneumonia-lung-infection-soccer-ashley-shorley/

In countries with temperate climates, influenza virus circulation generally peaks during the winter months, between late December and February in the Northern Hemisphere and between April and September in the Southern Hemisphere. However, in countries with tropical or subtropical climates, influenza seasonality is more variable with influenza activity observed throughout the year, especially during the rainy seasons. Within the tropical and subtropical zones of the Asia-Pacific region, influenza viruses circulate throughout the year in one of two latitude-dependent circulation patterns. In the first pattern, which occurs in tropical or partially tropical countries (e.g., Bangladesh, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam), influenza virus circulation peaks during the summer monsoon season (usually between July and October); in the second pattern, which tends to occur in countries on or close to the equator (e.g., Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore), influenza viruses circulate at a stable level throughout the year with no obvious discrete peak 

5 hours ago, Canuck1966 said:

I will be interesting to see the breakdown of deaths across Thailand in Jan, Feb, Mar and April

I would assume 99% of people who die are allocated a death certificate and cause of death

 

Where do we see that data? I would like to see total number of deaths (even if we can't see attributed causes) broken down by month. If we could see the first four months of this year, we could make a more informed guess about the impact of C-19 here. Anyone know where that data is?

 

I don't know how many people are infected here or have died from this virus. 

 

I do think it's very possible that an extra 20k people have died here and we haven't known it. The government is the only entity with access to that information. If Thailand had just a 10% increase in illness and death during the past four months, that would equate to an extra 20k people dead. 

 

Now,....from previous discussion here...people say no way that an extra 10% of people have been dying without our being aware of it....but, consider this story from Florida in the U.S. (link below). They were experiencing 10% more deaths than reported and nobody knew about it (via FB or other social media from families or health care workers) until the data was outed.

 

So, to be clear: Florida had 10% more deaths than reported and the only people who knew were the people at the top able to look at the spreadsheets. The rest of the populace was completely unaware until it was outed. And, it's been pointed out here Thailand doesn't have a whistleblower culture and has stiff penalties for publishing things on social media even if true. 

 

 

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/florida-officials-blocking-coronavirus-death-count_n_5eadae65c5b62e26815d1836

 

A male teacher who just retired at the primary school near us in Northern Surin died a couple days ago from some sort of inflammation. They say it wasn't covid but I just wonder. Since new year, two others died, one 85-year-old male from old age and my brother-in-law from cancer of the liver. Another 60+ year old guy hanged himself somewhere in a village nearby  It would be informative to know how many people die each month and year and their ages. In one district there are many villages so collectively the deaths really add up.

14 hours ago, katatonic said:

Not trying to be negative, but even in countries where they're doing lots of testing, which they aren't here, they reckon on a large multiplication factor for positive testing, i.e. way more cases than have been actually found in the population. They don't pile bodies up here either and there's no post mortem requirement as in the West. People die and then they burn them in the temple. No certificate, no test. This issue was dealt with by previous posters too. Let's just wait and see though - hopefully all will be fine but I'm down the booze shop tomorrow...

 

Fair comment, but I didn't mean literally "Piles of bodies". My contention was that even if you can scoot of to cremation in the Wat ASAP, really significant increase in deaths would be hard to hide. Like you I hope that even if overstated, good news has some basis in actuality.

 

Good luck with the booze shop. A local one here quietly selling out of the back door to known customers only, got nabbed by the Polis. Maybe some customer annoyed his wife, or neighbour. It would be better if drunken people at least sang in tune!

2 minutes ago, Nigel Garvie said:

Fair comment, but I didn't mean literally "Piles of bodies". My contention was that even if you can scoot of to cremation in the Wat ASAP, really significant increase in deaths would be hard to hide. Like you I hope that even if overstated, good news has some basis in actuality.

 

Good luck with the booze shop. A local one here quietly selling out of the back door to known customers only, got nabbed by the Polis. Maybe some customer annoyed his wife, or neighbour. It would be better if drunken people at least sang in tune!

I walk in the garden in the early morning.

Normally start about 4.30am

Every day about 5/5.30 for the last few months I've heard plenty of big booms from the crematorium as bodies are burned

The fireworks are set off to scare away evil

I've never heard them in the morning before Chinese flu was here

Just THREE new cases today, no deaths and currently 230 active cases.

 

2 in BKK and one from quarantine.

1 hour ago, Nigel Garvie said:

...really significant increase in deaths would be hard to hide.

Don't have to hide them, just ignore them and the rest of us wouldn't know.

 

See, for example...

 

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/florida-officials-blocking-coronavirus-death-count_n_5eadae65c5b62e26815d1836

 

Deaths up just 10% here over the last four months would mean an extra 20k dead and seems like we wouldn't know unless the good MOPH decided to let us in on it. 

23 hours ago, mommysboy said:

 

Yes, random sampling would give the best indication of how widespread the virus is in the population.

 

 

Without extensive testing it is impossible to know the true rate of infection ,the data sample is simply too small otherwise.

Thailand is already talking in terms of welcoming tourists back , that might not be straight forward if other nations are unconvinced by the reported number of cases and relatively miserly number of tests undertaken.

Edited May 3, 20206 yr by joecoolfrog

Good, good,  Thailand is doing fine. It is better here than in my country ,I must admit .Wish to see all over the world  it is getting better, soon to see the end of the epidemic

22 hours ago, HHTel said:

Thailand is around 50th on the 'leader board' with around 150 countries and territories below us.

According to posters on here, most of the world must be lying!

Perhaps those countries have also got very limited data , because they have not tested sufficiently , can you not join the dots ?

On 5/2/2020 at 12:20 PM, Bkk Brian said:

Since the numbers are so low and hospitalizations are now at a minimum which is fantastic news, please spend your covid budget on testing a random sample of each province so you get a real picture of the spread in Thailand, you know, just in case...............

 

South Korea now has plans to test the entire population to try and avoid a second wave.

"fantastic news" - on the other hand such low numbers means there's no herd immunity through infection present in Thailand.

That means herd immunity (60-70% of population wherein one infected person will not spread the virus on a 1:1 or greater rate, preferably 1:0.05 rate) can only exist with an immediate and massive vaccination program. But currently such does not yet in the world. 

Without herd immunity the virus can and will reappear time and time again, fall, at it's original infection rate.

18 hours ago, katatonic said:

Also I drove around Phuket today and It seems people are getting blase. 

That's the reason the second wave, if there is one, will be worse. Usurpers have done very little to get the test & track system going and now they've instilled false feeling of security in the populace. The lockdowns were for nothing. R0 dropped for a while and then returns to the original with a vengeance, because people think it's over.

 

Spreading false positivity is lethal. 

 

If they want real positivity, mass test for antibodies to determine if some form of herd immunity has occurred. And none of that "oh so phaaaang" BS.

Edited May 3, 20206 yr by DrTuner

1 hour ago, HHTel said:

Just THREE new cases today, no deaths and currently 230 active cases.

 

2 in BKK and one from quarantine.

Let's see what the daily Phuket leak says.

22 hours ago, Call said:

Cases etc are not interesting in the end, because you can´t find them all. What counts is the dead, only the dead. Today 54.

To compare, in 2017 Thailand ended up with 24.419 dead in the FLU. This was reported to CDC/WHO.

Conclusion, Thailand have handled the COVID19, extremely well!

 

 

Or you could say they handled the flu extremely poorly!

13 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

That's the reason the second wave, if there is one, will be worse. Usurpers have done very little to get the test & track system going and now they've instilled false feeling of security in the populace. The lockdowns were for nothing. R0 dropped for a while and then returns to the original with a vengeance, because people think it's over.

 

Spreading false positivity is lethal. 

 

If they want real positivity, mass test for antibodies to determine if some form of herd immunity has occurred. And none of that "oh so phaaaang" BS.

What?You mean do the job properly?Is there a precedence for that in Thailand?They have a worse case of "she'll be right mate" than the Aussies!

Edited May 3, 20206 yr by FarFlungFalang

31 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

If they want real positivity, mass test for antibodies to determine if some form of herd immunity has occurred. And none of that "oh so phaaaang" BS.

To date, there is no evidence of immunity after recovering from covid19.

 

I'll not bother with a link.  There are multiple sources.

3 minutes ago, HHTel said:

To date, there is no evidence of immunity after recovering from covid19.

 

I'll not bother with a link.  There are multiple sources.

Sure about that?  Seems many of the tests on people that showed positive again were faulty.

 

This was dated May 1st.

 

"However, South Korean scientists have now concluded that Covid-19 patients cannot relapse after recovering from the disease - and blame faulty tests for second positives"

 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11524335/cant-catch-coronavirus-twice-faulty-tests/

Regardless of the headline which is misleading, the article is not about immunity but whether a patient can 'relapse' after recovery.  That was one of the theories regarding a second positive.  That has now been blamed on faulty tests.

It remains that there is no evidence of immunity after recovering from covid19

 

1 hour ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Or you could say they handled the flu extremely poorly!

Or, you could say that the numbers for C-19 are complete <deleted>. 

 

If the numbers for the flu in 2017 was 24,419 for the year, that would be 2,035/month. So, if C-19 has the same mortality rate, then approximately 8,139 people would have died from that so far in the first four months of this year. Reports so far from other countries say that it has a higher mortality rate, not lower. So, only 54 deaths is HIGHLY suspicious.