Mortality is based on infection.  Covid 19 currently has around 3 - 4% deaths based on infections.

'Flu on the other hand kills much less than 1% of those infected.

 

Based on concluded cases in Thailand (recovered/died), the rate of death is 2%.  

34 minutes ago, HHTel said:

Mortality is based on infection.  Covid 19 currently has around 3 - 4% deaths based on infections.

'Flu on the other hand kills much less than 1% of those infected.

 

Based on concluded cases in Thailand (recovered/died), the rate of death is 2%.  

So, if Covid-19 is about twice as deadly as the flu and infection rates are similar to the flu of 2017, then about 16,000 Thais would be predicted to have died in the first four months of this year from Covid-19. 

3 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

So, if Covid-19 is about twice as deadly as the flu and infection rates are similar to the flu of 2017, then about 16,000 Thais would be predicted to have died in the first four months of this year from Covid-19. 

Where does it state that infection rates are similar to flu.  In Thailand, of course, we don't actually know the numbers of infections as a large number are asymptomatic or so mild they're not reported.

Remember, there is a vaccine for flu, albeit more or less effective depending on the current mutation.

There is also levels of immunity against 'flu.

The 'flu virus and covid19 are completely different types of viruses.  Compare like with like and these two diseases are no alike.

The number of deaths from 'flu are much greater, in the main, than the current virus.  However, infections are also much higher.  In the year you state for example (2017) in the states there were 45 million infections and around 60,000 deaths.

9 minutes ago, HHTel said:

Where does it state that infection rates are similar to flu.  In Thailand, of course, we don't actually know the numbers of infections as a large number are asymptomatic or so mild they're not reported.

Remember, there is a vaccine for flu, albeit more or less effective depending on the current mutation.

There is also levels of immunity against 'flu.

The 'flu virus and covid19 are completely different types of viruses.  Compare like with like and these two diseases are no alike.

The number of deaths from 'flu are much greater, in the main, than the current virus.  However, infections are also much higher.  In the year you state for example (2017) in the states there were 45 million infections and around 60,000 deaths.

According to the article linked below, the flu has a R0 rate of around 1.3 and Covid 19 is currently understood to be higher though we don't yet know how much higher. The article states that one model of infections in China showed a R0 as high as 6. So, so far nobody is saying Covid 19 is less infectious than the flu. Therefore, one wouldn't expect infection rate to predict less people dying of Covid 19 than the flu. Actually, quite the opposite. 

 

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

 

3 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

According to the article linked below, the flu has a R0 rate of around 1.3 and Covid 19 is currently understood to be higher though we don't yet know how much higher. The article states that one model of infections in China showed a R0 as high as 6. So, so far nobody is saying Covid 19 is less infectious than the flu. Therefore, one wouldn't expect infection rate to predict less people dying of Covid 19 than the flu. Actually, quite the opposite. 

 

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

 

Yes the flu has been here for a long time but it did not kill so many people in just a few months 

4 hours ago, HHTel said:

To date, there is no evidence of immunity after recovering from covid19.

 

I'll not bother with a link.  There are multiple sources.

Yes, and also no evidence of the opposite. It's simply too early to tell. Regadless, an antibody study would shed light into the real situation. Other countries are already starting to do randomized large scale studies.

 

If there is no immunity, then there is no herd immunity either. Just wave after wave after wave until there is a vaccine, like the flu.

Edited May 3, 20206 yr by DrTuner

19 hours ago, Canuck1966 said:

I will be interesting to see the breakdown of deaths across Thailand in Jan, Feb, Mar and April

I would assume 99% of people who die are allocated a death certificate and cause of death

 

Exactly, but they generally don’t document the actual cause of death-they just wing it, so we will never know the facts