Daily consumer spending to rise further in second-phase of easing

By THE NATION

 

 

Thanawat Phonvichai

 

The planned further easing of restrictions on May 17 combined with the first phase of relaxation of measures may generate daily public spending of Bt6 billion to Bt8 billion, estimates the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce’s Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting.

 

Thanawat Phonvichai, the university’s president, said the lockdown in response to the Covid-19 outbreak had brought consumer spending down by Bt10 billion daily, though the first round of easing measures on May 3 brought Bt2 billion to Bt3 billion back into daily circulation.

 

The centre estimates that the second phase of easing will generate spending of between Bt4 billion to Bt5 billion daily, which added to the money brought in circulation from the first round, will see consumer spending of up to Bt8 billion daily.

 

The centre has also forecast Thailand’s economic growth this year at -3.5 percent to -5 percent, though believes growth may enter positive territory if the tourism sector recovers in the fourth quarter.

 

Thanawat added that according to the university’s survey, the Consumer Confidence Index in April was 47.2, the lowest in nearly 22 years, reflecting people’s concern that the country will be hit with recession in the wake of the pandemic.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30387527

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-05-08

 

- Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you

- Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

Just where will they get the money to spend.  I believe it will take a good quarter for people to start to catch up on bills and such. Then maybe spending will increase.

I'm lucky, still be receiving my full salary throughout this and I'm not spending anything, so saving significant cash. However, I'm very much aware that my job could disappear in the medium-term, so I won't be spending. I need to buy a new car, a new motorbike, I'm about to receive two months salary bonus, but I'm not buying anything.

 

I'd say there are going to be a lot of people like me, very cautious in their spending in the short to medium-term which will drive spending down leading to negative growth and deflation. The only way to relax people's caution is to guarantee incomes. The Thai government haven't done that for anyone (and they can afford it, read about Modern Monetary Theory and Fiat Currencies), 5000/month was through gritted teeth and as a foreigner paying significant monthly taxes, I'm entitled to nothing anyway, so my money is not leaving my hand.

24 minutes ago, naboo said:

I'm lucky, still be receiving my full salary throughout this and I'm not spending anything, so saving significant cash. However, I'm very much aware that my job could disappear in the medium-term, so I won't be spending. I need to buy a new car, a new motorbike, I'm about to receive two months salary bonus, but I'm not buying anything.

 

I'd say there are going to be a lot of people like me, very cautious in their spending in the short to medium-term which will drive spending down leading to negative growth and deflation. The only way to relax people's caution is to guarantee incomes. The Thai government haven't done that for anyone (and they can afford it, read about Modern Monetary Theory and Fiat Currencies), 5000/month was through gritted teeth and as a foreigner paying significant monthly taxes, I'm entitled to nothing anyway, so my money is not leaving my hand.

My salary cut by 40%. Employer (school) has 20 mil+ in bank so not a hi-so or private school but enough to pay me my full wage which isn't much.

Edited May 8, 20206 yr by dinsdale