JP Morgan study shows lockdowns did not alter course of pandemic

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

The incubation period between infection and onset of symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 is approximately 5 days, not 14 days.

https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/journal-scans/2020/05/11/15/18/the-incubation-period-of-coronavirus-disease

 

 

MEDIAN! Monitoring people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 for 14 days for development of symptoms should be sufficient to identify 99% of cases or more.

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

To say it has been a "severe" remedy with little benefit is understating and misstating it. Lockdowns have been more than "severe". They have separated husband and wife, destroyed well run businesses, ruined careers, stopped people having operations and seeing doctors, and most likely will cause a GDP contraction of around 30% in the US and the UK.

 

Lockdowns have been no remedy at all, because the evidence shows they did not alter the pandemic parametres.

 

It is conceivable that lockdowns at the very start, before the virus had spread massively could have had an effect. However, once the virus had spread widely, imposing the lockdowns was useless from a pandemic stopping perspective.

 

 

Even if you hit the brakes late you might avoid a car crash. 

[nauseus]

26 minutes ago, Greg O said:

There is absolutely no evidence that locking down and quarantining healthy people has had any positive effect. The virus spreads naturally regardless what you do (masks can't catch it, testing can't catch it. Only  government with their archaic and draconian protocols have spread death and destruction to levels never even imagined before, and oh what about influenza ? If lockdowns were effective then flu infections should have dropped as well but in fact they've increased. 

Back on the road again...

Good. hope you have a long drive.

[Bkk Brian]

24 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Okay, post your instance where lockdown worked.

 

Let's look at it.

If you keep an infected person whether they show symptoms or not away, from an healthy person for 14 days then the healthy person will remain healthy.

 

Lockdown 101.

 

Now you can then go onto to expand that to groups, living situations, towns, cities, countries.

 

This is fact.

 

Refer to my previous posts on circumstances etc and not going to repeat myself

[Logosone]

5 minutes ago, nauseus said:

MEDIAN! Monitoring people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 for 14 days for development of symptoms should be sufficient to identify 99% of cases or more.

You appear to have problems comprehending what studies are saying

 

"The incubation period between infection and onset of symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 is approximately 5 days.

 

The authors then computed that if risk of exposure is low (1 in 10,000 exposed people) or medium (1 in 1,000 exposed people), 7 days of monitoring would be sufficient to identify >99% of symptomatic cases. However, if monitoring definitely infected people, monitoring durations >14 days could be required to capture >99% of symptomatic cases."

 

https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/journal-scans/2020/05/11/15/18/the-incubation-period-of-coronavirus-disease

 

So to be clear: In the majority of cases the incubation period is around 5 days. Only if you want to catch 99% of symptomatic cases in those definitely infected would you monitor for 14 days or longer.

 

The incubation period is NOT 14 days. It is 5 days.

[Logosone]

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

If you keep an infected person whether they show symptoms or not away, from an healthy person for 14 days then the healthy person will remain healthy.

 

Lockdown 101.

 

Now you can then go onto to expand that to groups, living situations, towns, cities, countries.

 

This is fact.

 

Refer to my previous posts on circumstances etc and not going to repeat myself

So no actual example of a real life lockdown policy that actually worked after it was examined.

 

Duly noted.

 

Of course your theory above rather omits what happens if you then cease to keep the infected person away from the healthy person and allow the infected person to have contact with the healthy person once again, after lockdown has ended.

 

Now expand this to cities, countries.

Edited May 25, 2020 by Logosone

[Logosone]

12 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Even if you hit the brakes late you might avoid a car crash. 

How did that work out in the UK?

 

Looked like a pretty major crash.

[Bkk Brian]

8 minutes ago, Logosone said:

So no actual example of a real life lockdown policy that actually worked after it was examined.

 

Duly noted.

 

Of course your theory above rather omits what happens if you then cease to keep the infected person away from the healthy person and allow the infected person to have contact with the healthy person once again, after lockdown has ended.

 

Now expand this to cities, countries.

So a scientific albeit basic factual explanation is not enough.

 

As for real life, I didn't realize that the pandemic was over how can I have an example of lockdowns, herd immunity, mass test and tracing and other models when this is still ongoing and far from finished, I'm humble enough to say that things may change in all models and thats why I specifically stated on numerous occasions as you well know that I am reserving judgement until best practice has been established with all the tools available and that is only when the results are finally compiled.

 

Thank god your not involved in developing a vaccine and get to phase 1 or 2 and say its a success because the evidence says so, yes correct it does but still 2 more phases of trials to go.

 

There are indeed studies of lockdowns working, scientific papers, not going to link though as I'm not attempting or have any wish to persuade you that you are wrong, I much prefer to challenge those who skew the truth. 

 

You have never actually stated which model you stand for and why? 

 

 

[Logosone]

Meanwhile India abandons lockdown, which has caused untold misery and chaos in the huge country, even though case numbers are rising. Why are they abandoning lockdown, even though the case numbers are going up? Because they understood lockdown is a useless policy.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52750255

 

 

[Logosone]

7 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

So a scientific albeit basic factual explanation is not enough.

 

As for real life, I didn't realize that the pandemic was over how can I have an example of lockdowns, herd immunity, mass test and tracing and other models when this is still ongoing and far from finished, I'm humble enough to say that things may change in all models and thats why I specifically stated on numerous occasions as you well know that I am reserving judgement until best practice has been established with all the tools available and that is only when the results are finally compiled.

 

Thank god your not involved in developing a vaccine and get to phase 1 or 2 and say its a success because the evidence says so, yes correct it does but still 2 more phases of trials to go.

 

There are indeed studies of lockdowns working, scientific papers, not going to link though as I'm not attempting or have any wish to persuade you that you are wrong, I much prefer to challenge those who skew the truth. 

 

You have never actually stated which model you stand for and why? 

 

 

Okay, but you can not name a single country, where based on the evidence available now, lockdown has actually worked?

 

Kindly cite an example of where I skew the truth. Thanks.

Edited May 25, 2020 by Logosone

[Bkk Brian]

21 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Okay, but you can not name a single country, where based on the evidence available now, lockdown has actually worked?

 

Kindly cite an example of where I skew the truth. Thanks.

Yes I can name a country infact a few where there is current success after the lockdowns but still a way to go on final results particularly on the economic consequences and excess deaths situation, phase 3 and 4 if you like. Not going to be drawn on a debate at this stage on them with you.

 

I'm still waiting for what your model is to stop the pandemic? Apart from citing JP Morgan that is.

 

The only thing I know at the moment is that you are sure lockdowns don't work and that you refuse to wear a facemask and do not believe they offer any protection for the general public

 

 

Edited May 25, 2020 by Bkk Brian

[Logosone]

6 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Yes I can name a country infact a few where there is current success after the lockdowns

Why don't you name those countries then where lockdowns have been a success?

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

 

 

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

You appear to have problems comprehending what studies are saying

 

"The incubation period between infection and onset of symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 is approximately 5 days.

 

The authors then computed that if risk of exposure is low (1 in 10,000 exposed people) or medium (1 in 1,000 exposed people), 7 days of monitoring would be sufficient to identify >99% of symptomatic cases. However, if monitoring definitely infected people, monitoring durations >14 days could be required to capture >99% of symptomatic cases."

 

https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/journal-scans/2020/05/11/15/18/the-incubation-period-of-coronavirus-disease

 

So to be clear: In the majority of cases the incubation period is around 5 days. Only if you want to catch 99% of symptomatic cases in those definitely infected would you monitor for 14 days or longer.

 

The incubation period is NOT 14 days. It is 5 days.

You appear to have problems both reading and comprehending what your own references say!

 

Quick Takes (from your own reference)

 

• The median incubation period from infection with SARS-CoV-2 to onset of symptoms is approximately 5 days.
• 97.5% of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 will exhibit symptoms by 11.5 days.
• Monitoring people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 for 14 days for development of symptoms should be sufficient to identify 99% of cases or more.

Edited May 25, 2020 by nauseus
sorry Brian can't get rid of your bit

[nauseus]

49 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Meanwhile India abandons lockdown, which has caused untold misery and chaos in the huge country, even though case numbers are rising. Why are they abandoning lockdown, even though the case numbers are going up? Because they understood lockdown is a useless policy.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52750255

 

 

Again the reference link does not say anything about "because they understood lockdown is a useless policy". All your own guff. 

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

How did that work out in the UK?

 

Looked like a pretty major crash.

It was. Locked down too late to avoid a pile-up. However, with zero lockdown the pile would have been far higher.

[nauseus]

31 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Why don't you name those countries then where lockdowns have been a success?

Kiwiland.

[Bkk Brian]

13 minutes ago, nauseus said:

 

You appear to have problems both reading and comprehending what your own references say!

 

Quick Takes (from your own reference)

 

• The median incubation period from infection with SARS-CoV-2 to onset of symptoms is approximately 5 days.
• 97.5% of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 will exhibit symptoms by 11.5 days.
• Monitoring people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 for 14 days for development of symptoms should be sufficient to identify 99% of cases or more.

Also confirmed by WHO

 

Pre-symptomatic transmission The incubation period for COVID-19, which is the time between exposure to the virus (becoming infected) and symptom onset, is on average 5-6 days, however can be up to 14 days.

[balo]

Its about keeping the balance right. Here in Norway we succeeded, despite what Tegnell thinks will happen.  The Norwegian and Danish strategy worked.  

 

[Bkk Brian]

52 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Kiwiland.

New Zealands done very well as has Austria after its harsh lockdown

[Logosone]

43 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

New Zealands done very well as has Austria after its harsh lockdown

A cursory look at the testing regimes run by New Zealand and Austria confirms it was their above average testing and isolating the infected, that led to their successful control of the pandemic, not the lockdown. You can not explain their success with "lockdown" when other more reasonable explanations explain the reduced transmissions.

 

 

 

 

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, nauseus said:

 

You appear to have problems both reading and comprehending what your own references say!

 

Quick Takes (from your own reference)

 

• The median incubation period from infection with SARS-CoV-2 to onset of symptoms is approximately 5 days.
• 97.5% of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 will exhibit symptoms by 11.5 days.
• Monitoring people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 for 14 days for development of symptoms should be sufficient to identify 99% of cases or more.

I'll make this easy for you to understand:

 

1. The very vast majority of people show symptoms after 5 days

2. To get to a 97.5 figure, you monitor for 11.5 days

3. To get to a 99% figure you monitor for 14 days.

 

However, the median, ie average, incubation period is 5 days. Not 14 days.

 

How is this hard to understand?

[Bkk Brian]

46 minutes ago, Logosone said:

A cursory look at the testing regimes run by New Zealand and Austria confirms it was their above average testing and isolating the infected, that led to their successful control of the pandemic, not the lockdown. You can not explain their success with "lockdown" when other more reasonable explanations explain the reduced transmissions.

Yes of course nothing to do with the lockdowns, I expected nothing less from you and why I will not debate the subject with you. Real experts say otherwise which is far more credible than your predictable response:

 

Michael Baker, professor at the University of Otago's department of public health in Wellington, who has been advising the New Zealand Government on its response, said implementing a full lockdown—involving the closure of schools and non-essential workplaces, a ban on social gatherings, and severe travel restrictions—enabled the country to consider elimination. “I think it was the right decision; we had to go hard”, he said.

“The two biggest benefits of pursuing an elimination strategy is that you have few cases and few deaths and you can get business back up and running. The alternative was that we are stuck with the virus and stuck between mitigation and suppression. Suppression is pretty grim.”

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1274663/New-Zealand-coronavirus-Jacinda-Ardern-lockdown-exit-tourism-industry

 

 

 

The government’s success in fighting the pandemic thus far is owed mainly to an early lockdown, Thomas Czypionka, head of the Austrian Institute of Advanced Studies’ Health Economics and Health Policy Group and a visiting senior research fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-austria-cases-covid-19-hospital-lockdown-latest-a9466281.html

Edited May 25, 2020 by Bkk Brian
added austria

[nauseus]

44 minutes ago, Logosone said:

I'll make this easy for you to understand:

 

1. The very vast majority of people show symptoms after 5 days

2. To get to a 97.5 figure, you monitor for 11.5 days

3. To get to a 99% figure you monitor for 14 days.

 

However, the median, ie average, incubation period is 5 days. Not 14 days.

 

How is this hard to understand?

Not a problem. That's why the 14 day isolation period seems to be standard in most places. The problem here is your posting of the following half-quote, without including the word 'median' between The and incubation:

"The incubation period between infection and onset of symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 is approximately 5 days.

 

Edited May 25, 2020 by nauseus

[nauseus]

52 minutes ago, Logosone said:

A cursory look at the testing regimes run by New Zealand and Austria confirms it was their above average testing and isolating the infected, that led to their successful control of the pandemic, not the lockdown. You can not explain their success with "lockdown" when other more reasonable explanations explain the reduced transmissions.

 

 

 

 

With a population smaller than Scotland it might be safe to assume that the amount of tests available per 1000 was higher than the world average.

[chessman]

On 5/24/2020 at 8:04 AM, Logosone said:

Just totally untrue.

 

Patterns have changed massively, even minor easing of the lockdown resulted in people swarming to the beaches in the UK.

Right, people going to the beach proves that interaction patterns change massively as soon as elements of lockdowns are reduced. I don’t think you believe this yourself. 

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

Yes of course nothing to do with the lockdowns, I expected nothing less from you and why I will not debate the subject with you. Real experts say otherwise which is far more credible than your predictable response:

 

Michael Baker, professor at the University of Otago's department of public health in Wellington, who has been advising the New Zealand Government on its response, said implementing a full lockdown—involving the closure of schools and non-essential workplaces, a ban on social gatherings, and severe travel restrictions—enabled the country to consider elimination. “I think it was the right decision; we had to go hard”, he said.

“The two biggest benefits of pursuing an elimination strategy is that you have few cases and few deaths and you can get business back up and running. The alternative was that we are stuck with the virus and stuck between mitigation and suppression. Suppression is pretty grim.”

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1274663/New-Zealand-coronavirus-Jacinda-Ardern-lockdown-exit-tourism-industry

 

 

 

The government’s success in fighting the pandemic thus far is owed mainly to an early lockdown, Thomas Czypionka, head of the Austrian Institute of Advanced Studies’ Health Economics and Health Policy Group and a visiting senior research fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-austria-cases-covid-19-hospital-lockdown-latest-a9466281.html

I am afraid you can not argue that mandatory full lockdown was the sole cause of reducing transmissions in New Zealand. Simply because New Zealand has also embarked on one of the most ambitious testing regimes of any country in the world, and isolated the infected.

 

Very obviously this has had an effect on the transmission figure. To attribute it solely to the lockdown is just wrong.

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, nauseus said:

Not a problem. That's why the 14 day isolation period seems to be standard in most places. The problem here is your posting of the following half-quote, without including the word 'median' between The and incubation:

"The incubation period between infection and onset of symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 is approximately 5 days.

 

No, it's not a problem, because that is exactly what the report said. Those words are direct quotations from report. How is this a problem? Median was not included by the authors in that sentence.

 

[Lacessit]

On 5/24/2020 at 8:05 AM, Logosone said:

You are obviously unaware that Australia and New Zealand tested more than most nations on earth. They contained the virus by their massive testing and isolating the infected, not through the lockdowns. 

As usual, you continue to publish falsehoods. Testing a bit more than the USA, a lot less than Russia.

Do you persist with adhering to your total selfishness in not wearing a mask?

[Logosone]

29 minutes ago, chessman said:

Right, people going to the beach proves that interaction patterns change massively as soon as elements of lockdowns are reduced. I don’t think you believe this yourself. 

"Sun-worshippers descended on parks and beaches today amid an expected 79F heatwave as they declared, 'If Dominic Cummings can break the rules, we can too' after Boris Johnson's Svengali got away with a 260-mile trip during lockdown.

 

This morning, crowds formed outside the Serpentine in London's Hyde Park, as beaches in Sussex, Essex and Dorset quickly filled up with visitors looking to enjoy the dry and sunny conditions forecast to last the whole of Bank Holiday Monday. 

 

The prospect of large crowds of tourists caused one seaside town to buckle and declare that they would open public toilets to stop visitors relieving themselves in parks and beaches. 

Great Yarmouth Borough Council's leader Carl Smith said yesterday: 'With the bank holiday weekend and second week of relaxed restrictions bringing the increased possibility of more tourists venturing further afield, we have decided to re-open a limited number of seafront toilets at Great Yarmouth and Gorleston from tomorrow for emergency use in the interests of public health, which remains our top priority."

 

Yah, I'd say there's been a massive change in behavioural patterns.

 

Lockdown is dead.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8354291/Fears-lockdown-collapse-crowds-hitting-parks-beaches-79F-heatwave.html

 

Edited May 25, 2020 by Logosone

[Logosone]

7 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

As usual, you continue to publish falsehoods. Testing a bit more than the USA, a lot less than Russia.

Do you persist with adhering to your total selfishness in not wearing a mask?

The only falsehood here is your totally false allegation, Wolloomooloo. New Zealand has tested more than most nations on earth, isolated the infected and that is the main reason why it succeeded in containing the pandemic, not lockdown.

 

That's not a falsehood. A falsehood is to claim that lockdown caused the stop in transmission. Very obviously mass testing on the scale that New Zealand did, isolating the infected has a major impact. We saw it with Germany, we saw it with South Korea, and we saw it with New Zealand. They just happened to use a hard lockdown as well, but that was not as important as their mass testing and isolating the infected.

 

Wear a mask if you have to to appease your overlords. Don't tell me what to do.