Euromomo - data between 2018 flu and 2020 coronavirus stats

[steelepulse]

https://www.euromomo.eu

 

Euromomo takes into account all mortalitues across the EU for any given period of time.

 

2018 flu season, excess deaths 160,000

2020 excess deaths, 145,000

 

Yes there will be more deaths, but when comparing 2018 flu season to 2020 flu season with coronavirus, 2018 was worse.  As everyone who is clued in knows, coronavirus is retreating in the northern hemisphere and deaths attributed to covid is dropping.

 

Bear in mind there are 445 million people in the EU.

 

 

 

 

[chessman]

And your point is?

 

here’s the graph from your link. Look at that sudden surge in March 2020 (there’s nothing like that in 2018), did it not justify extreme action? 
 

Now the number is falling quickly, time for countries in the EU to start relaxing restrictions and opening up their economies.

 

that’s what they are doing. So everything is perfectly logical and understandable, no?
 

a proportionate response to a potentially devastating event. 

 

 

[steelepulse]

35 minutes ago, chessman said:

And your point is?

 

here’s the graph from your link. Look at that sudden surge in March 2020 (there’s nothing like that in 2018), did it not justify extreme action? 
 

Now the number is falling quickly, time for countries in the EU to start relaxing restrictions and opening up their economies.

 

that’s what they are doing. So everything is perfectly logical and understandable, no?
 

a proportionate response to a potentially devastating event. 

 

 

Nice to selectively point out the spike.  Did you not read about the nursing home deaths?

 

Now getting back to what my point is. The point is, excess deaths are lower than 2018 and the whole pandemic is blown out of proportion.  I could see if there were 4.5 million excess deaths ( 1% of the population), but this hasn't happened, has it?

[steelepulse]

[GalaxyMan]

1 hour ago, steelepulse said:

2018 flu season, excess deaths 160,000

2020 excess deaths, 145,000

But flu season hasn't even started in North America or Europe yet. And South America is now exploding with the virus thanks to the stupider-than-Trump Bolsonaro. And Africa is ramping up. This thing is just getting rolling. So far it's only affected places that have a high international travel component, now it's spreading to the poorer areas that have no way or chance to deal with this except to watch people die. Brilliant. ????

 

The whole point is that a HUGE percentage of these deaths were probably preventable had first, the Chinese been more forthcoming, and second, if governments the world over hadn't put their collective heads in the sand because of the political cost of reality. ????

[chessman]

1 hour ago, steelepulse said:

Nice to selectively point out the spike. 

A laughable comment. You’re right though, if there was no spike then all of this would definitely be overblown!
 

You can’t dismiss the spike, the spike is the whole point. Governments needed to respond to that spike...

 

How far would you have been OK with letting that spike rise before you would have been OK with governments taking extreme action?

[chessman]

26 minutes ago, Monomial said:

What is missing in the analysis is the expected additional deaths in 2020 and coming years due to the economic evisceration that governments inflicted on the population due to their lockdown restrictions.

Maybe the death rate will actually go down, as it did in the US during the Great Depression?

[cormanr7]

1. The Euromomo data are not that easy to interpret, you have to integrate the area under the peaks to compare e.g. the presumed  deaths to flu in 2018 to the presumed deaths due to COVID-19 in 2020 (after the peaks have returned to the baseline). Then you get the 'excess deaths' over a certain period and this is how in some countries the number of flu deaths is estimated. Noteworthy that in 2020 there appeared to be a very low number of 'ordinary' flu deaths as compared to the previous three years. 

 

2. In the case of COVID-19 the 'excess deaths' is less clear as the baseline may shift, e.g. due to less traffic accident victims (which will pull it down), more suicides (which will pull it up), etc. More elderly or sick people may die at  home/care centres not from COVID but due to the fact they they are afraid to go to Hospital and get infected, do not want to burden the healthcare, etc. This has clearly been observed in England where the absolute number of people dying from non-COVID diseases has increased significantly as compared to historial data. 

 

3. From the latest EuroMomo data (for week 20) it can be seen that in most countries covered, the 'excess deaths' now have decreased to somewhere near the baseline. Exceptions, as determined by the z-score, are Italy and N. Ireland (low excess deaths), Belgium and Wales (moderate excess),  Scotland and Sweden (high excess) and England (extremely high excess). Note that these data apply to one week only.

Edited May 23, 2020 by cormanr7
typing error

[Maestro]

Removed a post with a YouTube video that is an unacceptable source (form rule 18) and the replies to it.