Australia's stalled migrant boom derails golden economic run

[gearbox]

On 6/2/2020 at 9:20 AM, simple1 said:

In today's Australian - can't link due to paywall - it states "economic modelling requires between 160,000 to 210,000 new overseas migrants per year to maintain GDP per capita growth". The article also quotes Deloitte Access saying loss of migrant intake due to Covid 19 is forecast to reduce GDP by 2% roughly equivalent to AUD$40 billion.

It is a flawed model. South Korea maintains very reasonable economic growth with almost no population increase.

The two pillars of the Aussie economy are "houses and holes".  The houses part requires ever increasing population, backed by innovative strategies like selling PR disguised as useless uni degrees.

The Aussie economy is a third world type economy, with "economics complexity" just ahead of Pakistan.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-02/australia-rich-and-dumb-or-an-innovation-nation/11657984

 

Currently there is no will to go the South Korean path and develop knowledge intensive sophisticated exports. Instead the govt is handing out grants for bathroom renovations.

 

[simple1]

14 minutes ago, gearbox said:

It is a flawed model. South Korea maintains very reasonable economic growth with almost no population increase.

The two pillars of the Aussie economy are "houses and holes".  The houses part requires ever increasing population, backed by innovative strategies like selling PR disguised as useless uni degrees.

The Aussie economy is a third world type economy, with "economics complexity" just ahead of Pakistan.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-02/australia-rich-and-dumb-or-an-innovation-nation/11657984

 

Currently there is no will to go the South Korean path and develop knowledge intensive sophisticated exports. Instead the govt is handing out grants for bathroom renovations.

 

Agree various governments have failed to transition to a 'clever country'. To do so now will takes years of effort and lots of investment to catch up, the level of investment required will likely have to be sourced from overseas. In the meantime tactical solutions are needed to keep the economy relatively stable. it is forecast the June quarter will uncover lots of financial pain for the Australian people, I guess government is looking for quick fiscal actions to lessen the pain.

[thaibeachlovers]

2 hours ago, samran said:

I also don’t agree on the jobs bit. Every job has value but we aren’t necessarily good at remunerating those jobs properly or fairly. 

Have to disagree a bit on that. In NZ they have to import labour to pick fruit because the NZ people that could do it won't or can't. It's not as though the labour isn't there. I think they get paid a decent wage, so that isn't it. From my friends in the business, many that turn up because they have to are too useless to employ or fail drug tests, so sent back to stay on the dole.

Certainly it's obscene that nurses are underpaid because they won't go on strike while someone that sits behind a desk shuffling money around gets paid a very high wage.

 

I'm not sure what is happening here but despite constantly being told that the economy is in strife everything seems the same as before lockdown, judging by the traffic jams in town.

 

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, gearbox said:

Currently there is no will to go the South Korean path and develop knowledge intensive sophisticated exports.

That depends on educating children, unless depending on importing talent. I'm guessing that OZ education is much the same as NZ, so more interested in social engineering than skills for work. I very much doubt the South Koreans gave their school kids the day off to go "protest" about climate change.

[dreaming]

8 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

That depends on educating children, unless depending on importing talent. I'm guessing that OZ education is much the same as NZ, so more interested in social engineering than skills for work. I very much doubt the South Koreans gave their school kids the day off to go "protest" about climate change.

Who would want to live in south Korea over australia - Get a grip on reality.

[samran]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Have to disagree a bit on that. In NZ they have to import labour to pick fruit because the NZ people that could do it won't or can't. It's not as though the labour isn't there. I think they get paid a decent wage, so that isn't it. From my friends in the business, many that turn up because they have to are too useless to employ or fail drug tests, so sent back to stay on the dole.

Certainly it's obscene that nurses are underpaid because they won't go on strike while someone that sits behind a desk shuffling money around gets paid a very high wage.

 

I'm not sure what is happening here but despite constantly being told that the economy is in strife everything seems the same as before lockdown, judging by the traffic jams in town.

 

Last sentence first - ultimately that is a good thing if people aren't too affected by the shut down.

 

For the fruitpicking stuff - you are essentially pointing to a well known, but hard to fix issue where there is an intersection between welfare and the job market, particularly around lower paid jobs.

 

When a person transitions out of welfare to work, the decrease in their welfare payment for every extra dollar they earn can sometimes mean they are effectively taxed at a 80% tax rate - which makes it hard to return to work even if you wanted to. Can be anything from getting off the dole, to (in OZ) having to give up child care subsidies as you return to work - such that you are working 3 to 4 days a week just to make up for the lost child care subsidies. For pensioners who might like to do a bit of extra work, it may not be worth it given the decrease in pension payments as a result.

 

https://www.austaxpolicy.com/effective-marginal-tax-rates-part-1/

 

As for debating Korea - I'm not sure I'd want that. Kids there are effectively at school from 8am to 10pm as they do the after school kumon study. You speak of not wanting stressful, unhappy lives, I'm not sure Korea is the answer. 

Edited June 4, 2020 by samran

[gearbox]

1 hour ago, dreaming said:

Who would want to live in south Korea over australia - Get a grip on reality.

True for bricklayers and plumbers, but the smart people chase money and opportunity. Why do you think there are so many Aussies working in Singapore and HK? I know quite a few highly educated chaps who moved to SEA for better pay and career development.

[johnpetersen]

THE World University Rankings 2020: results announced

UK universities struggle in latest league table, as institutions in Germany, China and Australia make progress

https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/world-university-rankings-2020-results-announced#survey-answer

 

[johnpetersen]

The top 10 countries for scientific research in 2018

China, with a remarkable rise in high-quality research output in 2018, is gaining on the dominant United States. In the top 10, Australia has jostled Spain out of 10th spot.

https://www.natureindex.com/news-blog/top-ten-countries-research-science-twenty-nineteen