Thai economy to shrink more than expected as job losses mount - c.bank minutes

By Orathai Sriring

 

FILE PHOTO: The Bank of Thailand logo is seen in Bangkok, Thailand April 26, 2016. REUTERS/Jorge Silva

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BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's economy will contract more than expected this year and the jobs outlook to deteriorate sharply from the impact of the coronavirus outbreak, minutes from the central bank's latest meeting showed on Thursday.

 

The Bank of Thailand's (BOT) policy committee voted 4-3 on May 20 to cut the one-day repurchase rate <THCBIR=ECI> by 25 basis points to a record low of 0.50%, with the three dissenters favouring no policy change.

 

The committee expressed concerns the baht <THB=TH> could strengthen and hurt economic recovery, adding the BOT would closely monitor market developments, according to the minutes.

 

"The committee would examine measures to lessen pressures from gold exports on the baht," the minutes said.

 

The central bank said on Monday it was ready to take steps to curb a rapid rise in the currency. It meets with exporters and foreign exchange traders on Thursday to discuss the baht.

 

In March, the BOT predicted the economy would shrink 5.3% this year, the biggest contraction since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. The central bank will next update its economic forecasts at its June 24 policy review.

 

The latest rate cut was the third this year to help support Southeast Asia's second-largest economy whose exports and tourism have been hit by the pandemic.

 

The minutes highlighted concerns about employment, which the committee said would deteriorate sharply and take a long time to return to normal.

 

"Some workers may be temporarily unemployed during the containment period. Others, however, could be permanently unemployed due to business insolvencies resulting in shutdowns, layoffs from weak demand, or greater use of automation," the minutes said.

 

The poor jobs outlook would delay the economic recovery and reduce the economy's long-term potential growth, causing "lasting economic scars after the crisis," the minutes said.

 

The state planning agency has said Thailand may lose up to 2 million jobs this year and 8.4 million are at risk of losing their jobs.

 

Click on minutes https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/MonetPolicyComittee/ReportMPC/Minutes/MPC_Minutes_32020_scjl5c2r.pdf for the full document. 

 

(Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-06-04

 

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The truth and nothing but the truth.  How refreshing.

Will the Government take any notice..probably not as they know what,s best for the country .....

History will show this world economic shut down to be the single biggest folly ever perpetuated on the population. 

 

We are right now living through what future generations will ask "what the he!! were they thinking?"

5 minutes ago, 86Tiger said:

History will show this world economic shut down to be the single biggest folly ever perpetuated on the population. 

 

We are right now living through what future generations will ask "what the he!! were they thinking?"

Future generations may not exist if the virus takes hold

44 minutes ago, CorpusChristie said:

Future generations may not exist if the virus takes hold

If you could show me any evidence of your statement please ?

Mortality rate of less than 1% is hardly a threat to the survival of the species !!!

 

... even though Governments and the Media want you to be scared like <deleted> about this so called

Pandemic - there is no Pandemic !!! Even all the official numbers show this. The data is very clear.

 

The billionaires can't help....? ????

With so few foreigners coming in they could reduce the numbers of IO's, AAAAH!! panic panic !!!

It's funny, I always used to say to Thai's without the foreigners you have nothing you will all be back to sticky rice land, how true is that now? all standing in a line for food handouts, cant pay their rents upto their eyes in debt.

Like after the second world war

Not quite as bad as forecast.

There are a lot more countries hurting more than Thailand ,,,,that is for sure,

which is one of the reasons that the Bht is still holding strong.

With more factories reopening every day they are slowly getting back on the road Jack

& exports starting to happen again.

Thailand could survive without tourism (I said survive) but there are so many influential people who  have vested interests in just the tourism structure alone that there will be pressure applied to allow International arrivals just as soon as possible.

 

"The state planning agency has said Thailand may lose up to 2 million jobs this year and 8.4 million are at risk of losing their jobs."

 

I thought more than 2 million had already lost their jobs, different figures every day.

Gee, I hope Bank of Thailand can worry some more about their high Baht—and once again, do nothing...

Tourism 11% of GDP my ass.  Try 40% plus easily

18 minutes ago, Alex 012 said:

Tourism 11% of GDP my ass.  Try 40% plus easily

I have seen many articles and all seem to be around the 17%. Personally I thought would be higher than that.

It makes no sense.  If things remain so dire—why does the Baht keep rising—now more than 2% above its 10-year average vs USD and others?

54 minutes ago, Dazinoz said:

I have seen many articles and all seem to be around the 17%. Personally I thought would be higher than that.

I've read 15 percent - with 5 percent spinoff.  

What do I know though?  I'm no economist.  

59 minutes ago, Dazinoz said:

I have seen many articles and all seem to be around the 17%. Personally I thought would be higher than that.

I did post on here a few days a link, but I can't what it was, but the report said 21.6% of GDP in 2018 for tourism.

nz $ on the march  no deaths in 14 days

Edited June 4, 20206 yr by whiteman

2 hours ago, natway09 said:

there will be pressure applied to allow International arrivals just as soon as possible.

Entirely possible, but there is the Thai end and the other end. Airline travel is going to be more restricted as are the numbers of people willing and able to travel halfway round the world to look at ruined temples and laze on a 2nd rate tropical beach. There are still many negatives that need to be addressed before this country can start crowing about "  REALLY AMAZING THAILAND" again.

1 hour ago, Alex 012 said:

Tourism 11% of GDP my ass.  Try 40% plus easily

How do you assume that number ? You counted all the figures , from staying in a holiday place ? Yes , in Pattaya , Samui , Phuket , it prob is even a lot higher then 40% , but Thailand does have a lot more then that . There is a significant amount of industry , from cars , electronic components , oil , chemicals and let's not forget the agriculture .

18 hours ago, webfact said:

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's economy will contract more than expected this year and the jobs outlook to deteriorate sharply from the impact of the coronavirus outbreak, minutes from the central bank's latest meeting showed on Thursday.

And the Baht will rise like a phoenix from the ashes.

16 hours ago, brain150 said:

If you could show me any evidence of your statement please ?

Mortality rate of less than 1% is hardly a threat to the survival of the species !!!

 

... even though Governments and the Media want you to be scared like <deleted> about this so called

Pandemic - there is no Pandemic !!! Even all the official numbers show this. The data is very clear.

 

Approaching 7 million infected and half million deaths within 5 months that we know of....that's with lockdowns etc....just wonder what those numbers would be if daily life had carried on as normal....I would think far more which certainly dwarfs Influenza, malaria and all the other sicknesses people keep quoting. It's proven in S.Korea, one infected person caused 40 infections in a matter of days and the subsequent closure of a company with 3,000 staff.....times that at every company, restaurant, bar etc etc....surely you can see how numbers quickly increase and what the outcome is

On 6/4/2020 at 4:06 PM, ChipButty said:

It's funny, I always used to say to Thai's without the foreigners you have nothing you will all be back to sticky rice land, how true is that now? all standing in a line for food handouts, cant pay their rents upto their eyes in debt.

Like after the second world war

Just charge double, BG style.. that fixes everything..

On 6/4/2020 at 7:07 PM, tribalfusion001 said:

I did post on here a few days a link, but I can't what it was, but the report said 21.6% of GDP in 2018 for tourism.

Good to see the news is leading edge and so informative...  I had no idea.. thank you...