Airports of Thailand forecasts 50% fall in revenue and passengers

 

FILE PHOTO: Thai Airways idle airplanes are seen parked on the tarmac of Suvarnabhumi Airport in Bangkok, Thailand May 25, 2020. REUTERS/Jorge Silva

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Airports of Thailand (AOT) <AOT.BK> said it expects passenger numbers and revenue to fall by 50% in 2020 as a result of the coronavirus crisis.

 

AOT, which manages six airports including Bangkok's main Suvarnabhumi, on Wednesday forecast a 50.7% year-on-year drop in revenue for its 2020 fiscal year and a 42.2% fall in 2021.

 

If a vaccine can be developed and distributed by July next year, the Thai economy can begin to recover after January 2022, then air traffic volumes could return to normal levels by October that year, state-owned AOT said in a statement.

 

It expects that by 2023, passenger numbers will reach 144.2 million and 902,000 flights, slightly above pre-crisis levels.

 

"Such forecasts are based on the assumption that a second wave of COVID-19 infections still strike different countries targeted for making bilateral agreements on (a) travel bubble with Thailand," AOT said.

 

Thailand has not yet signed any agreements for a tourism or travel exchange with other countries.

 

AOT said it expects travel within Thailand, which on Tuesday approved a domestic tourism package worth 22.4 billion baht, to begin to recover in August and reach normal levels in October 2022.

 

Thailand's aviation regulator suspended all commercial flights from entering the country since April.

 

The country has recorded a total 58 deaths among 3,135 confirmed coronavirus cases.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-06-17

 

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Pretty optimistic aren't they!  I would have bet on a 100% revenue decrease.  Of course they are probably hoping domestic flights bring in money...no way any international or transit flights will be flying in at this rate....

Edited June 17, 20206 yr by ThailandRyan

4 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Pretty optimistic aren't they!  I would have bet on 0%

No way only 50%

Edited June 17, 20206 yr by Anton9

31 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Pretty optimistic aren't they!  I would have bet on a 100% revenue decrease.  Of course they are probably hoping domestic flights bring in money...no way any international or transit flights will be flying in at this rate....

But what about all the Thai aircraft 'parked' at the airport. Parking aircraft at any airport is not free, even whilst they sit at the terminal waiting to board passengers for their next flight they pay parking fees.

 

Such parking revenues for the entire Thai fleet for weeks/months/many many months should be quite a few Baht. 

1 hour ago, snoop1130 said:

AOT,  on Wednesday forecast a 50.7% year-on-year drop in revenue for its 2020 fiscal year

Employing the same 6 year old children to do your maths as TAT will always make your claim look good.

Absolutely unrealistic, but looks good on paper.

When reality shows it at about 80-90% magic deflection will be introduced and naysayers will be imprisoned for computer crimes and the potentially foreseeable offense of questioning government propaganda claims.

39 minutes ago, scorecard said:

But what about all the Thai aircraft 'parked' at the airport. Parking aircraft at any airport is not free, even whilst they sit at the terminal waiting to board passengers for their next flight they pay parking fees.

 

Such parking revenues for the entire Thai fleet for weeks/months/many many months should be quite a few Baht. 

Idiot guards with whistles and flashlights must have a hell of time climbing ladders looking for parking stickers.

 

 The end is nigh , for land of smiles..

We're do they get these figures from, all made up no doubt, and the optimistic figure of 50% keep on dreaming.... 

The Thais and their maths

Looks like they use the same statistician that TAT do.

More relevant than the non realistic 50% fall in 2020 is the 42% fall projected for 2021.

 

This means that they expect only a very minor recovery for tourism next year, which would be disastrous for the country and its cohorts of unemployed.

 

Even by AOT's optimistic standards, things are not looking good...

 

14 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Airports of Thailand (AOT) <AOT.BK> said it expects passenger numbers and revenue to fall by 50% in 2020 as a result of the coronavirus crisis.

Are they unaware - or just living in ignorance - of what is currently happening in Beijing ? 

15 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Airports of Thailand (AOT) <AOT.BK> said it expects passenger numbers and revenue to fall by 50% in 2020 as a result of the coronavirus crisis.

80% I might start believing you.

The Baht has risen once again.  How do they expect only a 50% reduction?

7 hours ago, Brunolem said:

More relevant than the non realistic 50% fall in 2020 is the 42% fall projected for 2021.

 

This means that they expect only a very minor recovery for tourism next year, which would be disastrous for the country and its cohorts of unemployed.

 

Even by AOT's optimistic standards, things are not looking good...

 

This is probably the most accurate and realistic prediction that I have read in Thai media to date.

They are always way too optimistic in their estimates. I guess it has something to do with placating their shareholders, who must be feeling the pinch, though the stock is miraculously at over 61 baht at the moment. It has ranged from 45 to 81.75 so far, in the past year. 

 

I would forecast traffic at the domestic and international airports to be down closer to 60-65%, if you account for the first three months of the year. I predict no more than one million international arrivals, for the balance of the year. Just too many variables, and too much risk and expense, when people are going to need to be tightening their belts to make up for the economic slowdown and the insane economic shutdowns. 

4 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

This is probably the most accurate and realistic prediction that I have read in Thai media to date.

I tend to agree with you, it's a surprisingly realistic projection.

 

I've been saying for a while, domestic air travel, in the Western markets at least, will be the leading indicator of how the international tourist market will recover.

 

Now while I see a steady rise in passengers at my station, it's still a far cry from what it should be at this time of year. Maybe 10% of whats normal for June.

 

So coupled with the fact that folks are still  a little freaked out about getting on a plane for a 1 hour flight to Denver, let alone 24 hours to Thailand, it's the financial impact this has had on people.

 

It's going to take time for folks to rebuild their finances before they even think about that vacation to Thailand, even after flights start to become available 

 

No one, repeat no one, is going to travel to Thailand to have to pay for quarantine or risk being tracked and deported.

Thai domestic tourism will be family orientated and surely weekend based.

I doubt there is a wealthy Thai retiree subgroup that can spend their time and money touring the hotels of Thailand.

A little bit of civil unrest would concentrate minds.

 

 

thats lucky heathrow is 97% drop in revenue,so how do they do it ? we all want to know

On 6/17/2020 at 9:59 PM, darksidedog said:

Employing the same 6 year old children to do your maths as TAT will always make your claim look good.

Absolutely unrealistic, but looks good on paper.

When reality shows it at about 80-90% magic deflection will be introduced and naysayers will be imprisoned for computer crimes and the potentially foreseeable offense of questioning government propaganda claims.

 

Yes, it is absolute nonsense to forecast any figure as precisely as 50.7%.    If they said, 'approximately 50%', it may be slightly more believable.