Thailand had the world's first coronavirus case outside China. Here's how it avoided disaster

[Logosone]

33 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

Wonder how many people have to be infected for the sewer test to return positive? Then, I wonder how long it needs to be in that locality to spread enough so that that number of people get infected. Maybe it was in Italy in October? Earlier? Any reasons to believe it would have gotten a better start in Italy before Thailand?

It's again Italians being more ingenious and doing more work.

 

Do you think if in Thailand they were to examine waste they would not find Covid 19 in samples that predate the first case in January?

[JCP108]

34 minutes ago, Logosone said:

It's again Italians being more ingenious and doing more work.

 

Do you think if in Thailand they were to examine waste they would not find Covid 19 in samples that predate the first case in January?

I'm no sewage expert. But, seems like however robust the China-Italy connection was last year, Thailand probably had them beat in numbers of Chinese travelers throughout the year.

Edited June 25, 2020 by JCP108

[DrTuner]

4 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

But, seems like however robust the China-Italy connection was last year, Thailand probably had them beat in numbers of Chinese travelers throughout the year.

With the amount of tourists coming in from Wuhan, it's probable the virus was in Thailand only few weeks behind whenever it started in China.

 

Some satellite surveillance and search engine data from China hints at a start far earlier than China spilled the beans:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-in-wuhan-fall-satellite-data-internet-searches-2020-6

https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/42669767

Edited June 25, 2020 by DrTuner

[Logosone]

3 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

I'm now sewage expert. But, seems like however robust the China-Italy connection was last year, Thailand probably had them beat in numbers of Chinese travelers throughout the year.

Exactly, the links between Thailand and China are very strong. Anything between 18 and 40% are estimates of Thais with Chinese ancestry. Relatives constantly visiting.

[DrTuner]

3 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Exactly, the links between Thailand and China are very strong. Anything between 18 and 40% are estimates of Thais with Chinese ancestry. Relatives constantly visiting.

Robert Koch Institute made models early on:

http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/corona/docs/model/importrisk/

 

For some reason I don't remember seeing Iran at the top in February when I first saw these.. in any case, Thailand is/was high risk.

[Logosone]

4 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

With the amount of tourists coming in from Wuhan, it's probable the virus was in Thailand only few weeks behind whenever it started in China.

 

Some satellite surveillance and search engine data from China hints at a start far earlier than China spilled the beans:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-in-wuhan-fall-satellite-data-internet-searches-2020-6

https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/42669767

So evidence is mounting that October was a possible start date. Just as Italian researchers find waste samples that show SARS Cov2 in October.

 

Fascinating.

 

 

[Logosone]

4 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Robert Koch Institute made models early on:

http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/corona/docs/model/importrisk/

 

For some reason I don't remember seeing Iran at the top in February when I first saw these.. in any case, Thailand is/was high risk.

Thanks for all these very interesting links.

 

If you click on the Country forecast on the left and select Thailand, interestingly the RKI boffins predicted 2800 cases for Thailand. Quite a coincidence the excess deaths are in the region of 2400.

 

 

[DrTuner]

7 minutes ago, Logosone said:

If you click on the Country forecast on the left and select Thailand, interestingly the RKI boffins predicted 2800 cases for Thailand. Quite a coincidence the excess deaths are in the region of 2400.

Oh nice, and they are using a SIR-X model, which is more advanced than the SEIR that was used by many ( http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html )

 

 

Geeking out a bit, have to admit. That graph gives you the forecast for next 6 days - which for Thailand isn't hard to guess: 0.

Edited June 25, 2020 by DrTuner

[DrTuner]

Ah, found NYT's references for their data:

https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/tree/master/excess-deaths

 

Thailand

Sources: Bureau of Registration Administration Department of Provincial Administration
Baseline years: 2015-2019
Data frequency: monthly

 

Bureau of registration is the civic data - ID cards etc. That's just about as reliable as it gets around here.

[herwin1234]

On 6/23/2020 at 11:20 AM, robblok said:

Strange that indonesia has countless infections. That rules out climate. The hash lockdown is what saved us. 

 

I

Indonesia, Singapore....

 

Thais success story: Decisive leadership on all levels who make swift decisions based on facts without politics, AND citizens who act united, positive, and despite that many are deeply affected by the lockdown, fully understand the seriousnes of the crisis and thus support the measurements.

 

A very dramatic difference with many western countries with weak leadership and selfish citizens who behave like children and refuse to wear masks and social distancing, call it a hoax, and even organise large scale protests to "defend" their freedom of not wearing masks!

 

 

[Logosone]

4 minutes ago, herwin1234 said:

Indonesia, Singapore....

 

Thais success story: Decisive leadership on all levels who make swift decisions based on facts without politics, AND citizens who act united, positive, and despite that many are deeply affected by the lockdown, fully understand the seriousnes of the crisis and thus support the measurements.

 

A very dramatic difference with many western countries with weak leadership and selfish citizens who behave like children and refuse to wear masks and social distancing, call it a hoax, and even organise large scale protests to "defend" their freedom of not wearing masks!

 

 

You're tripping. 

 

If you look back, Thailand declared a state of emergency on 26 March. That was actually later than the EU, which did so on 16 March. And the EU was already late. Thailand then declared a curfew on 3 April. Remember Thailand was one of the first to have a case, on 13 January the first case was identified.

There were cases throughout February, mostly attributed to returnees from China. On 6 March there was the Lumpinee outbreak. 

 

Thailand suspended flights on 4th April. The EU did so on 17 March. The US as well

 

The Thai government was sharply criticised by many for various aspects of its initial response to the crisis. The government's inconsistent policy over international travel and quarantine requirements, indecisiveness and slowness to act, and poor communication—many official announcements were made available to the public, only to be quickly retracted or contradicted by other government units, and later changed, all this led to much criticism. The abrupt closure of Bangkok businesses prompted tens of thousands of workers to travel to their hometowns, risking further spread and reflecting the failure among agencies to coordinate a unified response.

 

I think it is safe to say that if anything protected Thailand it was not the government response. In fact many of the measures that were done in Thailand, like taking temperature, would have limited usefulness. Since we now know asymptomatic carriers can spread the disease. Equally the wearing of masks, UK SAGE government advisers have said themselves there is little evidence it has any impact. Indeed a major UK study later confirmed this, though other studies disagreed it is fair to say the evidence on masks is mixed at best. Distributing handgel in the villages, okay. From what I have seen perhaps the only Thai measure that could have had a significant impact was the tracing effort.

 

[JCP108]

8 minutes ago, herwin1234 said:

 

 

Thais success story: Decisive leadership on all levels who make swift decisions based on facts without politics, AND citizens who act united, positive, and despite that many are deeply affected by the lockdown, fully understand the seriousnes of the crisis and thus support the measurements.

 

 

 

 

No words with which to respond to this.

 

Literally.

 

So, I'll have to invite you to imagine the interpretive dance I'm currently doing to express my confusion upon reading your post. 

[Logosone]

17 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

No words with which to respond to this.

 

Literally.

 

So, I'll have to invite you to imagine the interpretive dance I'm currently doing to express my confusion upon reading your post. 

It's an example of an ultra-nationalism one sees in Asia, Thailand, Taiwan, Japan, China, Indonesia, it's almost child-like.

 

One sees the same with Yinn. Many Thais want to be proud of something and decided they won the Covid19 contest, lol.

 

It's funny, but sad at the same time.

[JCP108]

11 minutes ago, Logosone said:

It's an example of an ultra-nationalism one sees in Asia, Thailand, Taiwan, Japan, China, Indonesia, it's almost child-like.

 

One sees the same with Yinn. Many Thais want to be proud of something and decided they won the Covid19 contest, lol.

 

It's funny, but sad at the same time.

It's hard for me to imagine anyone who says about any government anywhere on the planet that it is characterized by "[d]ecisive leadership on all levels who make swift decisions based on facts without politics, AND citizens who act united, [and] positive."  

Edited June 25, 2020 by JCP108

[Logosone]

1 minute ago, JCP108 said:

I generally consider myself a person of at least average intelligence and capacity to be creative. However, it's hard for me to imagine anyone who is not an actual child who says about any government anywhere on the planet that it is characterized by "[d]ecisive leadership on all levels who make swift decisions based on facts without politics, AND citizens who act united, [and] positive."  

It's ludicrous of course, but then mindless nationalism likes good sounding words, doesn't matter if they're put together in a way that actually makes sense.

 

Thais acted united and positive, lol. That's why that Thai guy was arrested at the market for not wearing a mask I suppose.

[JackThompson]

 

On 6/23/2020 at 1:50 PM, KhaoYai said:

You might find reading the statistics on Pneumonia cases and deaths since January interesting reading. 

 

I know a married couple (Thai & English) who both caught a virus whilst visiting Thailand earlier this year.  The English guy was pretty bad and was hospitalised in Pattaya - his symptoms point strongly towards Covid 19, yet neither were tested. All that was recorded was a Respiratory Infection.  I'm just one person who knows 2 that are very likley to have had Covid whilst in Thailand - how many more are there?

 

When it was likely at it's worst - when the Chinese first brought it here - they weren't testing, or calling those cases 'covid'.  Those illnesses/deaths were just "resperatory infection" / "flu" cases, which kill the elderly every year. 

 

Unlike in the USA/Europe, when those "about to die" from other causes did die, they didn't test them, then label these "covid-deaths."  Cancer, Stroke, Heart-Attack, etc - were called what they were.  Thai hospitals don't get thousands of dollars in govt-money, if they can find a way to label a death "covid."

 

It was only when the world went mad - then some "farangs" came in with covid, they could admit what it was - when doing so would not fault the Chinese.  At that point, most Thais were likely immune, so spread/effect was minimal.  Therefore, the shutdown was likely pointless - though would need reliable anti-body testing to prove this.

The reason we see Thais returning from abroad testing-positive, is they caught it later overseas, where it began spreading later than here.  I have yet to see any statistics on how many returnees who test positive become critically-ill - or even seriously ill.

[DrTuner]

9 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

It's hard for me to imagine anyone who says about any government anywhere on the planet that it is characterized by "[d]ecisive leadership on all levels who make swift decisions based on facts without politics, AND citizens who act united, [and] positive."  

Here's one:

[Bkk Brian]

2 hours ago, SkyFax said:

An analysis released on Thursday said samples taken in Milan and Turin on Dec. 18 showed the presence of the SARS-Cov-2 virus.

“This research may help us understand the beginning of virus circulation in Italy,” said Giuseppina La Rosa, an expert in environmental wastewater at the Italian National Institute of Health who co-led the research.

 

La Rosa said the presence of the virus in the Italian waste samples did not “automatically imply that the main transmission chains that led to the development of the epidemic in our country originated from these very first cases”.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-sewage/italy-sewage-study-suggests-covid-19-was-there-in-december-2019-idUSKBN23Q1J9

I think its been around much longer than we all figure or what China tells us:

 

French athletes believe they caught coronavirus at the World Military Games in Wuhan in October, 20 days before the first recorded case in China.

 

https://www.covid-19.no/military-athletes-catch-covid-19-in-wuhan-october

[Yinn]

8 hours ago, JCP108 said:

Wut?

They.

[Ratchsima]

3 hours ago, Logosone said:

It's an example of an ultra-nationalism one sees in Asia, Thailand, Taiwan, Japan, China, Indonesia, it's almost child-like.

 

One sees the same with Yinn. Many Thais want to be proud of something and decided they won the Covid19 contest, lol.

 

It's funny, but sad at the same time.

Most Thai people are busy with their lives to cope with this crisis  currently. No one cares about this stupid pride.  In fact most Thai pray for every countries to be recovered and wish covid19 will disappear so life will be back to normal.

 

 It is only you who is childish and sad here to come up with stupid covid19 competition and stupid pride nonsense. How ridiculous .Grow up. 

 

Btw, saving face is not only in Asian culture. It is in the west also , but this time it is deadly saving face by not wearing masks just because they dont want to be seen as weak and sick. They need to maintain tough face all the times. Not only wearing mask but also all these stupid egoism that kill them like worthless animal . Who is at false here?

 

 

Edited June 25, 2020 by Ratchsima

[DrTuner]

58 minutes ago, Ratchsima said:

It is in the west also , but this time it is deadly saving face by not wearing masks just because they dont want to be seen as weak and sick.

Nah, that's because they don't want to appear like ninja assassins. Masks in Europe & co are seen as something muslim invaders wore in the holy wars. Check out the burkha discussions for more details. Some countries have laws where you are required to bare your face in order to be recognizable.

 

That, and people in western countries don't in general like to be told what to do by some authoritarian jerk who got in power, say f.ex. , by executing a coup.

Edited June 25, 2020 by DrTuner

[SkyFax]

8 hours ago, Logosone said:

So evidence is mounting that October was a possible start date. Just as Italian researchers find waste samples that show SARS Cov2 in October.

 

Fascinating.

 

An analysis released on Thursday said samples taken in Milan and Turin on Dec. 18 showed the presence of the SARS-Cov-2 virus.  ...

 

Samples positive for traces of the virus that causes COVID-19 were also found in sewage from Bologna, Milan and Turin in January and February 2020. Samples taken in October and November 2019 tested negative.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-sewage/italy-sewage-study-suggests-covid-19-was-there-in-december-2019-idUSKBN23Q1J9

 

[JCP108]

1 hour ago, SkyFax said:

An analysis released on Thursday said samples taken in Milan and Turin on Dec. 18 showed the presence of the SARS-Cov-2 virus.  ...

 

Samples positive for traces of the virus that causes COVID-19 were also found in sewage from Bologna, Milan and Turin in January and February 2020. Samples taken in October and November 2019 tested negative.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-sewage/italy-sewage-study-suggests-covid-19-was-there-in-december-2019-idUSKBN23Q1J9

 

From an different angle...

 

Geneticists looking at samples to try to pinpoint the time of the most common recent ancestor...

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3083211/coronavirus-may-have-jumped-humans-early-october-study-says

 

[SkyFax]

From the above scmp link:

 

"Results suggest the global health crisis may have started at some point between October 6 and December 11"

 

That still would not explain how Thailand excess deaths in SEP - DEC 2019 vs. the norm same months 2015-2018 could be explained by COVID-19.

 

"The first case of someone in China suffering from Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, can be traced back to November 17, according to government data seen by the South China Morning Post. ...

"Some of the cases were likely backdated after health authorities had tested specimens taken from suspected patients."

 

 

 

 

[JCP108]

1 hour ago, SkyFax said:

 

 

"The first case of someone in China suffering from Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, can be traced back to November 17, according to government data seen by the South China Morning Post. ...
 

 

 

 

 

This is the first confirmation though no reason to believe that specific case is patient zero. Maybe it was around before that?

[Bkk Brian]

11 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

I think its been around much longer than we all figure or what China tells us:

 

French athletes believe they caught coronavirus at the World Military Games in Wuhan in October, 20 days before the first recorded case in China.

 

https://www.covid-19.no/military-athletes-catch-covid-19-in-wuhan-october

Actually expanding on this a little, its not just French athletes who suspect they caught COVID at Wuhan back in Oct but also German and Spanish.

 

Close to 10,000 competitors competed at the Games from over 100 countries during the nine-day event. Taking place in October, the allegations came two months before the first identification of COVID-19 by China.

 

French athletes: https://www.covid-19.no/military-athletes-catch-covid-19-in-wuhan-october

 

German athletes: https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1094347/world-military-games-illness-covid-19

 

Spanish athletes: https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2020/05/08/spanish-athletes-displayed-coronavirus-symptoms-following-the-world-military-games-in-wuhan-in-october-2019/

 

Of course China picked up on this and their state sponsored mouth piece the global times tried a conspiracy theory spin.

 

Chinese netizens and experts urge the US authority to release health and infection information of the US military delegation which came to Wuhan for the Military World Games in October to end the conjecture about US military personnel bringing COVID-19 to China. https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1183658.shtml

 

[Logosone]

8 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Nah, that's because they don't want to appear like ninja assassins. Masks in Europe & co are seen as something muslim invaders wore in the holy wars. Check out the burkha discussions for more details. Some countries have laws where you are required to bare your face in order to be recognizable.

 

That, and people in western countries don't in general like to be told what to do by some authoritarian jerk who got in power, say f.ex. , by executing a coup.

There's that and of course the fact that four separate studies showed that asymptomatic transmission rates are between 0% and 2.3%. Which, when you consider that 0.8% of people, or less, have the virus, of which 43% are asymptomatic means that your chances of running into an asymptomatic carrier and him passing the virus to you are literally close to 0%. Which makes wearing masks rather pointless unless one is sick.

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.10.20097543v2.full.pdf

[Logosone]

9 hours ago, Ratchsima said:

Most Thai people are busy with their lives to cope with this crisis  currently. No one cares about this stupid pride.  In fact most Thai pray for every countries to be recovered and wish covid19 will disappear so life will be back to normal.

 

 It is only you who is childish and sad here to come up with stupid covid19 competition and stupid pride nonsense. How ridiculous .Grow up. 

 

Btw, saving face is not only in Asian culture. It is in the west also , but this time it is deadly saving face by not wearing masks just because they dont want to be seen as weak and sick. They need to maintain tough face all the times. Not only wearing mask but also all these stupid egoism that kill them like worthless animal . Who is at false here?

 

 

It's probably true actually, the vast majority of Thai people are busy to cope with the economic effects of lockdown imposed here, in a bout of overreaction that was global in nature.

 

I'm not the one though who is posting articles lauding Thailand's response which was in fact poorer than in most countries, it would appear that some Thais are keen to try and spin the fortunate outcome from this crisis as some sort of triumph for the Thai health care system. They are the ones seeing it as a competition and it is indeed ridiculous.

 

Masks btw are useless, you're "at false".

[SkyFax]

3 hours ago, JCP108 said:

4 hours ago, SkyFax said:

 

 

"The first case of someone in China suffering from Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, can be traced back to November 17, according to government data seen by the South China Morning Post. ...
 

 

 

 

 

This is the first confirmation though no reason to believe that specific case is patient zero. Maybe it was around before that?

The first known case of Covid-19 in China dates back to November, but the hunt for “patient zero” goes on.
The first case of someone in China suffering from Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, can be traced back to November 17, according to government data seen by the South China Morning Post.

According to the government data seen by the Post, a 55 year-old from Hubei province could have been the first person to have contracted Covid-19 on November 17. ...

 

It is possible that there were reported cases dating back even earlier than those seen by the Post.

 

[SkyFax]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

Actually expanding on this a little, its not just French athletes who suspect they caught COVID at Wuhan back in Oct but also German and Spanish.

Suspect? 13 Apr 2020 

Is there any way to know whether someone has had Covid-19 in the past?

Dr William Hillmann: Antibody tests are being developed but are not in widespread clinical use yet. The antibody testing would allow us to check blood samples for antibodies against coronavirus to tell whether somebody has had it. I, and I think many others, are anxiously awaiting for those to become available.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/global/2020/apr/13/coronavirus-have-i-already-had-covid-19