Fauci warns spread of COVID-19 'could get very bad', says no guarantee of vaccine

By Paul Simao and Carl O'Donnell

 

Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, testifies during a Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., June 30, 2020. Kevin Dietsch/Pool via REUTERS

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States government's top infectious diseases expert on Tuesday warned that daily COVID-19 cases could more than double if Americans fail to take countermeasures and cautioned against pinning hopes on a vaccine.

 

California, Texas and several other states are reporting record increases in cases of the sometimes deadly illness caused by the novel coronavirus, leading to a sobering reassessment of efforts to contain it and raising the stakes for the scores of vaccine candidates being developed at unprecedented speed.

 

Unless Americans wear masks and recommit to social distancing, the daily increase in new cases nationwide, currently around 40,000, could reach 100,000, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told a U.S. Senate committee.

 

"Clearly we are not in total control right now," Fauci said. "I am very concerned because it could get very bad."

 

Fauci said "there is no guarantee" that ongoing efforts will produce a safe and effective vaccine to prevent infection by the virus, pouring cold water on hopes for a quick fix to the health crisis.

 

Many countries in Asia and Europe have succeeded in controlling the pandemic with strong, coordinated government responses marked by stringent lockdowns and mandatory mask wearing in public.

 

In the United States, wearing masks has become a divisive political issue, and many southern and western states began reopening businesses without having met government health benchmarks for doing so safely, with younger adults in particular letting their guards down in recent weeks.

 

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases told a U.S. Senate committee that based on the current surge of COVID-19 cases in some states, the country could see 100,000 new cases per day. “It is going to be very disturbing, I can guarantee you that,” Fauci said.

 

With the virus on the rise in most U.S. states, the European Union has excluded the United States from its initial "safe list" of countries from which the bloc will allow non-essential travel beginning on Wednesday.

 

COVID-19 cases more than doubled in June in at least 10 states, including Texas and Florida, a Reuters tally showed. In parts of Texas and Arizona, hospital intensive care beds for COVID-19 patients are in short supply.

 

More than 126,000 Americans have died from COVID-19 and millions have lost their jobs, as businesses and schools shut to curtail the virus. The economy contracted sharply in the first quarter and is expected to crater in the April-June period.

 

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden on Tuesday launched a fresh attack on President Donald Trump's "historic mismanagement" of the pandemic, arguing he could have saved lives and the economy by acting earlier to control the virus.

 

"It didn't have to be this way," the former vice president said in a speech in Delaware, in which he unveiled an updated plan to tackle the pandemic, including more testing and hiring at least 100,000 contract tracers. "Donald Trump failed us."

 

FOURTH OF JULY WORRIES

The fresh surge in new cases and hospitalizations has dimmed hopes that the worst of the human and economic pain had passed for the country, and renewed criticism of Trump's handling of the crisis as he seeks re-election on Nov. 3.

 

In the past few days California, Texas and Florida have all moved to close bars, which public health officials have warned are among the riskiest non-essential businesses and likely one of the larger contributors to the recent spikes.

 

On Tuesday, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut added California and seven other states to a list of those from which visitors must self-quarantine for 14 days upon arrival. Texas and Florida were on the original list announced last week.

 

South Carolina has also emerged as a hotspot, reporting a record single-day increase of 1,755 cases on Tuesday.

 

In Texas, many eyes are on Houston hospitals, where beds are quickly filling up with COVID-19 patients.

 

Dr. Marc Boom, Houston Methodist Hospital System's chief executive, told CNN on Tuesday that his 2,400-bed system has seen a "very significant" increase in COVID-19 patients, although the death rate has lowered recently.

 

Boom said he was worried about July 4 Independence Day celebrations, when Americans traditionally flock to beaches and campgrounds and gather to watch fireworks displays. Some experts pointed to Memorial Day gatherings in late May for a spike in cases.

 

"We're looking at the Fourth of July coming up in a couple of days, and frankly it scares me," he said.

 

(Reporting by Carl O'Donnell, Trevor Hunnicutt, Simon Lewis, Saumya Joseph, Brad Brooks, Susan Heavey and Maria Caspani; Writing by Paul Simao and Nathan Layne; Editing by Bill Berkrot)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-07-01

 

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No vaccine has been found for the common Alpha and Beta Coronaviruses (4 types of Common Cold).

 

It may indeed be possible that no vaccine can be created for SARS-CoV-2 and instead we may fined ourselves with little choice but to rely on herd immunity. 

 

This was the original plan. Lock down, reduce impact to the health services so that those serious cases can receive medical care, meanwhile the majority of the population (>85%) are asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms anyway.

 

If a vaccine is discovered, how effective may it be anyway? (flu is just 40-60% effective). 

 

 

Regarding the wearing of Masks.... it seems many from European countries (UK) and the US seem to think the pressure to wear face masks is some sort of invasion on their civil rights !!!!! - Just wear the ‘<deleted> mask, tools ! (I don’t like it either!), but wearing a mask can’t not be effective in minimising the spread of respiratory aerosol (and potential viruses) when in busy areas.

 

 

As far as Biden's ‘finger pointing’ is concerned - This is the perfect storm for sanctimonious accusation - there are no right responses, just a series of ‘least wrong’ responses. Using this crisis as a political climbing tool is despicable. It’s easy to throw stones when you are not responsible.

 

 

 

Could be 100,000 cases a day 5% fatalitie rate translates to 5000 dead per day and we are still in the first wave but take heart most other country’s are doing much much better competent leadership makes a huge difference stay safe follow protocols good luck!

0 credibility. Does not matter what this lying hack says. 

Where did all the BLM protests take place, & has there been an increase in cases?

 

And as Richard just said:

 

Wear a mask.

 

I am so fed up with the finger pointing by US/UK gubmints; it's not about the opposition helping  to find the best solution, but attempting to get in to power.

 

Israeli scientists are on the brink of introducing the vaccine of SAR and Covid-19...there are several articles to attest that Israeli scientists have the vaccine at hand but it's being tested on animals at the moment...

https://nocamels.com/2020/06/israeli-covid-19-vaccine-effective-animal-trial/

Edited June 30, 20206 yr by ezzra

Trump and Fox news are responsible for 1000's or deaths and long terms illness. They pushed for reopening and claimed civil liberty violation bla bla.  The 20-40 age group couldn't sit still.

9 minutes ago, utalkin2me said:

0 credibility. Does not matter what this lying hack says. 

So Fauci is a hack, and Trump tells the truth? No wonder America is in such a mess, if that's what many Americans think.

Not a single mention of the massive protest gatherings and riots going on over the last few weeks seeding and super spreading the virus. 

 

23 minutes ago, faraday said:

Where did all the BLM protests take place, & has there been an increase in cases?

 

And as Richard just said:

 

Wear a mask.

 

I am so fed up with the finger pointing by US/UK gubmints; it's not about the opposition helping  to find the best solution, but attempting to get in to power.

 

It doesn't look like the protests have contributed to the spike, most of the protesters wore masks. Same in the UK, no spikes where the protests were.

9 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

Not a single mention of the massive protest gatherings and riots going on over the last few weeks seeding and super spreading the virus. 

 

Proof? NYC no spike and massive protests there and the same in Minneapolis.

8 minutes ago, tribalfusion001 said:

It doesn't look like the protests have contributed to the spike, most of the protesters wore masks. Same in the UK, no spikes where the protests were.

 

So the lockdowns are unnecessary then. Massive gatherings are fine, but wear a mask. 

54 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

No vaccine has been found for the common Alpha and Beta Coronaviruses (4 types of Common Cold).

 

It may indeed be possible that no vaccine can be created for SARS-CoV-2 and instead we may fined ourselves with little choice but to rely on herd immunity. 

 

 

Just as there is no guarantee of a vaccine, neither is there any guarantee of herd immunity.  Of the seven known coronaviruses four are known to produce immunity from infection for no more than a few months.  Nothing is known about possible immunity from the other three.

 

So, I think there is less than a 50% chance that immunity results from infection for Covid-19.

5 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

 

So the lockdowns are unnecessary then. Massive gatherings are fine, but wear a mask. 

In low infection areas, I don't see any problem with gatherings and wearing a mask. More information would be needed why some states are seeing infections rising and what the demographics are.

Edited June 30, 20206 yr by tribalfusion001

Just now, tribalfusion001 said:

In low infection areas, I don't see any problem with gatherings and wearing a mask.

 

So it was all BS then. Unnecessary to lockdown states and keep them locked down, unnecessary to shame people for going to the beach or walking in the park etc as long as a mask is worn. 

6 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

 

So it was all BS then. Unnecessary to lockdown states and keep them locked down, unnecessary to shame people for going to the beach or walking in the park etc as long as a mask is worn. 

I think masks help when inside or in large gatherings. I'm not a lockdown fan, I never thought they would work the same as in Wuhan. It's comes down to your own personal risk and being considerate to others. I didn't feel unsafe in Bangkok and I don't feel unsafe in the UK. Here in the UK I don't wear masks as I'm not in shops long enough and close to people for transmission. Public transport it's mandatory to wear a mask and I comply. I've met friends in their gardens for a beer and there was little risk. In a high infection area I maybe more cautious, but not much, I don't fall into any of the high risk catergories.

"...In the United States, wearing masks has become a divisive political issue, ...'

 

And one guess, only need one guess, who made it so political!

9 minutes ago, tribalfusion001 said:

I think masks help when inside or in large gatherings. I'm not a lockdown fan, I never thought they would work the same as in Wuhan. It's comes down to your own personal risk and being considerate to others. I didn't feel unsafe in Bangkok and I don't feel unsafe in the UK. Here in the UK I don't wear masks as I'm not in shops long enough and close to people for transmission. Public transport it's mandatory to wear a mask and I comply. I've met friends in their gardens for a beer and there was little risk. In a high infection area I maybe more cautious, but not much, I don't fall into any of the high risk catergories.

 

Ive worn my FFP3 masks, face shield and bathed in alcohol every time I left the house and have zero doubt that masks work, even in the beginning when it was being said by top scientists in the USA not to use them, but where my doubt falls off is the hand to face/eyes/nose transmission. 

 

Yeah masks are great but you'd logically think that if a virus is easily spreadable on surfaces all it would take would be one handrail, one door knob to spread the virus and in massive gatherings such as protests and riots, hand-to-face transmission has GOT to be a problem unless you wanna tell me that these protesters are carrying hand gel and are constantly washing their hands before they touch their face, which would be a hard sell. 

 

So if massive protests and gatherings in close proximity to others in the middle of a pandemic does not spread coronavirus, as stated by you and others (which is along partisan lines) then the lockdowns and shutdowns are unnecessary because clearly all you have to do is wear a mask.

10 minutes ago, scorecard said:

"...In the United States, wearing masks has become a divisive political issue, ...'

 

And one guess, only need one guess, who made it so political!

Jair Bolsonaro was forced to wear a mask, maybe Trump can be forced to wear a one. Pence and Fauci don't seem to have a problem with masks, it shouldn't be a political issue.

15 minutes ago, scorecard said:

And one guess, only need one guess, who made it so political!

 

Id really like to know when Trump ever told the public to not wear a mask. 

13 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

 

Ive worn my FFP3 masks, face shield and bathed in alcohol every time I left the house and have zero doubt that masks work, even in the beginning when it was being said by top scientists in the USA not to use them, but where my doubt falls off is the hand to face/eyes/nose transmission. 

 

Yeah masks are great but you'd logically think that if a virus is easily spreadable on surfaces all it would take would be one handrail, one door knob to spread the virus and in massive gatherings such as protests and riots, hand-to-face transmission has GOT to be a problem unless you wanna tell me that these protesters are carrying hand gel and are constantly washing their hands before they touch their face, which would be a hard sell. 

 

So if massive protests and gatherings in close proximity to others in the middle of a pandemic does not spread coronavirus, as stated by you and others (which is along partisan lines) then the lockdowns and shutdowns are unnecessary because clearly all you have to do is wear a mask.

Tbh I think it's quite hard to catch this virus from short term activities outside, most of the transmissions will come inside your home or work place. They say it's 15 minutes in close contact with someone who is infected and the reason certain workers catch the virus is due to longer exposure to infected people.

 

The people on the protests are generally moving most of the time and are constantly near different people for short bursts. The same applies in shops, you are moving around. The likelyhood of catching the virus from a surface is very low. There was 1000s on the beaches in the UK last week and 1000s of football fans celebrating, it will interesting to see if there is a spike next week after these events happened.

 

This was from a UK paper and it's a list of occupations that are the highest death rates in the UK, which should be the same for the USA. Hairdressers, barbers, care workers, nurses, retail assistants, security guards, factory workers, taxi drivers, chefs, bus/coach drivers, all inside jobs and generally lower paid jobs.

Edited June 30, 20206 yr by tribalfusion001

14 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

Just as there is no guarantee of a vaccine, neither is there any guarantee of herd immunity.  Of the seven known coronaviruses four are known to produce immunity from infection for no more than a few months.  Nothing is known about possible immunity from the other three.

 

So, I think there is less than a 50% chance that immunity results from infection for Covid-19.

There are over 200 strains of the ‘common cold’ most of them Rhinoviruses.

Other strains include parainfluenza viruses, respiratory syncytial virus, adenovirus, metapneumovirus and of course, coronaviruses which cause 10-30% of common cold cases (yadda yadda yadda, I’m not pretending I actually knew any of that !).

 

[From what I have read] It is understood that the exposure to Respiratory Viruses (which include) coronaviruses Alpha and Beta give a period of relative immunity, 1-3 years. 'Relative immunity' because people who have previously been exposed will have much less disease if re-infected later, not ‘full immunity’ (our information seems to differ regarding the length of immunity).

 

Not much is known about relative immunity for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV because the viruses swept through relatively quickly with high IFR and a relatively low number of cases, it was also less contagious than the various common cold strains and SARS-CoV-2. 

 

There is no way to know at the moment until those who have previously been infected are re-exposed to SARS-CoV-2 are immune, however, we can make assumptions (which is all I am doing, and doing so with a degree of recklessness only a layman can throw out there on such a subject, kind of like the Facebook experts !!!). 

 

So.... If pushed towards drawing an opinion, I would base it on the assumption that as immunity of 1-3 years exists for the majority of existing respiratory viruses, immunity may also exist for SARS-CoV-2 and thus herd immunity may exist, but only if we evolve along with the antigenic drift of the virus.

 

This leads me onto a BUT !!!!

 

IF we are relying on a vaccine which will be distributed to billions, how effective is this vaccine on a virus which has evolved?

 

The flu vaccine is effective because we can predict its antigenic drift. 

 

Are the developed vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 predicting its evolution. First they have to be successful in finding a vaccine against current strains, and then work out how the virus ‘drifts’....

 

Food for thought.

 

 

6 minutes ago, tribalfusion001 said:

Tbh I think it's quite hard to catch this virus from short term activities outside, most of the transmissions will come inside your home or work place. They say it's 15 minutes in close contact with someone who is infected and the reason certain workers catch the virus is due to longer exposure to infected people.

 

The people on the protests are generally moving most of the time and are constantly near different people for short bursts. The same applies in shops, you are moving around. The likelyhood of catching the virus from a surface is very low. There was 1000s on the beaches in the UK last week and 1000s of football fans celebrating, it will interesting to see if there is a spike next week after these events happened.

 

This was from a UK paper and it's a list of occupations that are the highest death rates in the UK, which should be the same for the USA. Hairdressers, barbers, care workers, nurses, retail assistants, security guards, factory workers, taxi drivers, chefs, bus/coach drivers, all inside jobs and generally lower paid jobs.

 

So massive protests in close proximity in the middle of a pandemic is OK, as long as you wear a mask, but working and basic daily activities needed for personal and economic survival = spreading coronavirus  - better lock it down. 

 

This is the problem people have, especially after local governors made it political by extending lockdowns and arresting people for trying to work and being at the beach, filling outdoor skateparks with sand and on and on but as soon as the protests started they themselves are out in the middle of it and all of a sudden massive gatherings are A-Ok

 

And I find it very hard to believe that being around thousands of people in an unhygienic manner is safer than working in a factory following COVID guidelines. 

10 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

 

So massive protests in close proximity in the middle of a pandemic is OK, as long as you wear a mask, but working and basic daily activities needed for personal and economic survival = spreading coronavirus  - better lock it down. 

 

This is the problem people have, especially after local governors made it political by extending lockdowns and arresting people for trying to work and being at the beach, filling outdoor skateparks with sand and on and on but as soon as the protests started they themselves are out in the middle of it and all of a sudden massive gatherings are A-Ok

 

And I find it very hard to believe that being around thousands of people in an unhygienic manner is safer than working in a factory following COVID guidelines. 

You'll probably find the spikes are in places that are not adhering to the guidelines, I'm sure they are factories in the USA using illegal or cheap labour. The spike in Leicester UK could well be in factories that are not having PPE for staff and poorly ventilated places too. South Asians living in multiple occupancy houses, sometimes 10+ in one 3 bed house.

 

There doesn't seem to be any spikes so far in places in the UK which have had large gatherings either protests or street parties. I think more evidence is needed where these cases are coming from.

Edited July 1, 20206 yr by tribalfusion001

1 hour ago, Don Chance said:

Trump and Fox news are responsible for 1000's or deaths and long terms illness. They pushed for reopening and claimed civil liberty violation bla bla.  The 20-40 age group couldn't sit still.

20-40, sure but lot of old gassers could not deal with it either.

The truth, if they did a full court press for 2 months, that would have got the collective head above water. That was not possible. All it required was leadership. However No political will, no leadership. My God, Gerald Ford or Jimmy Carter would have provided leadership, heck, probably great leadership. The current president, if he can't lie,  he cant lead. Viruses are notoriously difficult to lie to. 

Some troll posts using trolling videos using Thai language has been removed as this is an English language site.

 

A post using profane language and the replies have been removed. 

45 minutes ago, tribalfusion001 said:

Jair Bolsonaro was forced to wear a mask, maybe Trump can be forced to wear a one. Pence and Fauci don't seem to have a problem with masks, it shouldn't be a political issue.

But it's only since the current very big spike that pence has started wearing a mask. 

 

What a waste of time, he's totally ineffective anyway.

Please. Thailand needs to ban anyone from the US from coming here.

 

Edited July 1, 20206 yr by bkk6060

2 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

If a vaccine is discovered, how effective may it be anyway? (flu is just 40-60% effective). 

The flu vaccine, is at minimum 40% ineffective
there is no sure way to measure its effectiveness
(even though people like to compare past numbers etc.)
The vaccine can only be measured by its ineffectiveness
as there is no way of knowing for sure
someone that received the vaccine would have got the flu (or not)
but 
when someone that has been vaccinated, gets the flu
it can be recorded unequivocally that the vaccine was ineffective

4 minutes ago, innosiem said:

2 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

If a vaccine is discovered, how effective may it be anyway? (flu is just 40-60% effective). 

The flu vaccine, is at minimum 40% ineffective
there is no sure way to measure its effectiveness
(even though people like to compare past numbers etc.)
The vaccine can only be measured by its ineffectiveness
as there is no way of knowing for sure
someone that received the vaccine would have got the flu (or not)
but 
when someone that has been vaccinated, gets the flu
it can be recorded unequivocally that the vaccine was ineffective

I see your logic - and yes, at minimum the vaccine makes no difference for 40% of people. 

 

The vaccine itself doesn’t protect people from catching the flu, it just minimises the symptoms in 40-60% of people (according to reports).