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The Thai Economy Is In Crisis


george

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You're so right.

In my own opinion there are 2 Thailands.

1. The industrial, service, tourism, real estate, cement, electronics, car/parts-production etcetera, etcetera...Thailand

2. Rural -agricultural- Thailand where the vast majority of Thai live and work and where more than 50% of Thai Labor produces a mere 16% of the total.

That says it all. :o

LaoPo

although i love reading your very well put posts I beg to differ with some of you conclusions.

I am not arguing with you but just presenting a different view to the same "facts"

as a basis we should relate to the same currency.

1. exports is up in baht figures. and if you nominaly relate them to the previous value they are actually a lot higer.

2. profits are down as the income is in forigen currency and expenses are in baht. but in nominal figures the profits are actually up. be sure that exporters have hedged to protect themselves.

3. the import is actually up in nominal figures. example is if you buy an import a year ago for a dollar it will be 40 baht

if you buy the same now its 32 baht. so in baht terms you buy the same product for 20% less.

so thai spending power has been elevated by 20% when it comes to imports. but if the thai public is buying the same amount of products as before or even a little higer it will still seem like a drop. but it is not.

this affects the statistics for what some of the memebers refer to as "customers confidence".

if you look at the real nominal spending you will see that the Thais are buying more but they are paying less for it.

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You're so right.

In my own opinion there are 2 Thailands.

1. The industrial, service, tourism, real estate, cement, electronics, car/parts-production etcetera, etcetera...Thailand

2. Rural -agricultural- Thailand where the vast majority of Thai live and work and where more than 50% of Thai Labor produces a mere 16% of the total.

That says it all. :D

LaoPo

although i love reading your very well put posts I beg to differ with some of you conclusions.

I am not arguing with you but just presenting a different view to the same "facts"

as a basis we should relate to the same currency.

1. exports is up in baht figures. and if you nominaly relate them to the previous value they are actually a lot higer.

2. profits are down as the income is in forigen currency and expenses are in baht. but in nominal figures the profits are actually up. be sure that exporters have hedged to protect themselves.

3. the import is actually up in nominal figures. example is if you buy an import a year ago for a dollar it will be 40 baht

if you buy the same now its 32 baht. so in baht terms you buy the same product for 20% less.

so thai spending power has been elevated by 20% when it comes to imports. but if the thai public is buying the same amount of products as before or even a little higer it will still seem like a drop. but it is not.

this affects the statistics for what some of the memebers refer to as "customers confidence".

if you look at the real nominal spending you will see that the Thais are buying more but they are paying less for it.

I'm a bit puzzled, Highdiver, about your logics. :D

Export growth against baht rise worrying: EXIM Bank

excerpts:

"...most exports are high-tech product items made by foreign entrepreneurs in Thailand, according to the Export and Import Bank of Thailand (EXIM).

exports in the US dollar-terms expanded 18.4 per cent in the first five months of this year despite the continued baht appreciation since last year.

the export growth was mainly driven by high-tech product items, which account for 64 per cent of the total exports.

More importantly, over 80 per cent of the high-tech products are made foreign entrepreneurs in Thailand, who had been slightly affected by the baht appreciation since they counted on import contents and hedged against the currency volatility risks.

In fact, Mr. Apichai said, Thai exporters, particularly small- and medium-size enterprises (SMEs), had been quite adversely affected by the stronger baht because they had low bargaining power to fix products prices. "

1. In the first five months of this year, the export value increased 18.4 per cent in the dollar terms while exports in baht-terms edged up only 7 per cent

2. your point is answered above.

3. I don't think imports are actually higher according to your explanation; on the contrary but can't find the links at the moment; I know however that consumer product-imports were indeed up, but heavy machinery/technical products were down, including -odd enough- Oil imports.

And, last but not least: Thai are spending a LOT less*, not more and I'm interested where you found out that they're actually paying less (than previously). Do you have any proof of that ? :o

* all figures and statistics show that [Thai] confidence amongst consumers is at it's lowest since years. Car/motobike sales are down, loans from banks (housing) are down, etc. etc.

http://etna.mcot.net/query.php?nid=30408

LaoPo

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crisis , what crisis

there's a few more points on the SET

Exports to fall 12.5% in baht terms

Sharp reduction despite expected weaker monetary unit

Wed, July 11, 2007 : Last updated 0:10 am

Thailand's export value in baht terms will be 12.49 per cent lower in the second half of the year than the first due to the continued appreciation of the currency, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) said yesterday.

The estimate is based on an exchange rate of Bt34.48 to the US dollar and an assumption that the currency will lose some value during the rest of the year.

Petchanet Pratruangkrai

The Nation

opps ......

Edited by Mid
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crisis , what crisis

there's a few more points on the SET

Exports to fall 12.5% in baht terms

Sharp reduction despite expected weaker monetary unit

Wed, July 11, 2007 : Last updated 0:10 am

Thailand's export value in baht terms will be 12.49 per cent lower in the second half of the year than the first due to the continued appreciation of the currency, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) said yesterday.

The estimate is based on an exchange rate of Bt34.48 to the US dollar and an assumption that the currency will lose some value during the rest of the year.

Petchanet Pratruangkrai

The Nation

opps ......

If correct, and using the Jan to May figures, this would result in a 5.9% decrease in baht value of exports in 2007. Going to be some pain. But this is what it's going to take to trend the baht weaker. Although imports are declining faster than exports. 5.7% decrease Jan to May 2007 vs. 2006 same period. Exports increase 6.9% for the same period and then are projected above to do a flip.

Although on a good note, consumer imports are only down 1.4%. Fuel and lubricants are down 19.6%. And while car imports are down 37.4%, buses and trucks are up 46.5%. Motorcycles and parts are up 243%! Agricultural machinery up 98%. Cameras up 204%.

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You're so right.

In my own opinion there are 2 Thailands.

1. The industrial, service, tourism, real estate, cement, electronics, car/parts-production etcetera, etcetera...Thailand

2. Rural -agricultural- Thailand where the vast majority of Thai live and work and where more than 50% of Thai Labor produces a mere 16% of the total.

That says it all. :D

LaoPo

although i love reading your very well put posts I beg to differ with some of you conclusions.

I am not arguing with you but just presenting a different view to the same "facts"

as a basis we should relate to the same currency.

1. exports is up in baht figures. and if you nominaly relate them to the previous value they are actually a lot higer.

2. profits are down as the income is in forigen currency and expenses are in baht. but in nominal figures the profits are actually up. be sure that exporters have hedged to protect themselves.

3. the import is actually up in nominal figures. example is if you buy an import a year ago for a dollar it will be 40 baht

if you buy the same now its 32 baht. so in baht terms you buy the same product for 20% less.

so thai spending power has been elevated by 20% when it comes to imports. but if the thai public is buying the same amount of products as before or even a little higer it will still seem like a drop. but it is not.

this affects the statistics for what some of the memebers refer to as "customers confidence".

if you look at the real nominal spending you will see that the Thais are buying more but they are paying less for it.

I'm a bit puzzled, Highdiver, about your logics. :D

Export growth against baht rise worrying: EXIM Bank

excerpts:

"...most exports are high-tech product items made by foreign entrepreneurs in Thailand, according to the Export and Import Bank of Thailand (EXIM).

exports in the US dollar-terms expanded 18.4 per cent in the first five months of this year despite the continued baht appreciation since last year.

the export growth was mainly driven by high-tech product items, which account for 64 per cent of the total exports.

More importantly, over 80 per cent of the high-tech products are made foreign entrepreneurs in Thailand, who had been slightly affected by the baht appreciation since they counted on import contents and hedged against the currency volatility risks.

In fact, Mr. Apichai said, Thai exporters, particularly small- and medium-size enterprises (SMEs), had been quite adversely affected by the stronger baht because they had low bargaining power to fix products prices. "

1. In the first five months of this year, the export value increased 18.4 per cent in the dollar terms while exports in baht-terms edged up only 7 per cent

2. your point is answered above.

3. I don't think imports are actually higher according to your explanation; on the contrary but can't find the links at the moment; I know however that consumer product-imports were indeed up, but heavy machinery/technical products were down, including -odd enough- Oil imports.

And, last but not least: Thai are spending a LOT less*, not more and I'm interested where you found out that they're actually paying less (than previously). Do you have any proof of that ? :o

* all figures and statistics show that [Thai] confidence amongst consumers is at it's lowest since years. Car/motobike sales are down, loans from banks (housing) are down, etc. etc.

http://etna.mcot.net/query.php?nid=30408

LaoPo

Lao Po

the logic is simple.

thailand imports in USD but the statistics are made in baht. as such all imports now cost less in baht.

thailand exports in USD but the statistics are in baht.

as you pointed out the export are up 18% in USD and in baht only 7% but if you add the apreciation of the baht then the figures are the same.

at the end of the day thailand is exporting more.

if you look at the imports and imported products because of the apreciation they are now cheaper in baht by nearly 20% year on year. so when thailand consumers are buying they actually pay less for this import.

to make it simple.

last year you buy an import product for 100 bhat. this year you buy the same product and it costs only 80 baht. the statisitics will then show a decline of 20% in import value . its not true as you are buying the same product.

as for spending.

if the same product has sold 10 units last year for 100 baht then the spending is 1000 baht

however this year the sold 11 units wich are 10% rise in sales. however since the price of this product is lower by 20%

then 11 units represnt 880 baht. then the statistics will still show a decline of 12% in revenue.

so even when people are actually buying more units the revenue in baht is dow

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Interesting times for sure and hope you can manage your Thai produced items to stay competitive.

thanks - would fight to keep our business here - for a start we are changing from dollar based calculations to other currencies... :o

Interesting...but do your customers accept that (if they're used to buy in $'s...are they willing to take the risks?)

LaoPo

it's either that or a straight price increase or moving the production base - changing the invoice currency hedges things a bit and makes the pill a bit sweeter to swallow. i'm hoping most clients will accept this solution - at least for the time! :D

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5,000 workers find factory closed

(dpa) - Thousands of Thai labourers on Wednesday demonstrated against the surprise closure of a garment factory that has allegedly shut shop for lack of export orders.

An estimated 5,000 labourers blocked traffic on Gingkeow Raod in Samut Prakan province, adjoining Bangkok, after they were shut out of the Thaisilipa Arcanay Import-Export Company when they arrived for work Wednesday morning.

The Post Publishing Public Co

:o

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Lao Po

the logic is simple.

thailand imports in USD but the statistics are made in baht. as such all imports now cost less in baht.

thailand exports in USD but the statistics are in baht.

as you pointed out the export are up 18% in USD and in baht only 7% but if you add the apreciation of the baht then the figures are the same.

at the end of the day thailand is exporting more.

if you look at the imports and imported products because of the apreciation they are now cheaper in baht by nearly 20% year on year. so when thailand consumers are buying they actually pay less for this import.

to make it simple.

last year you buy an import product for 100 bhat. this year you buy the same product and it costs only 80 baht. the statisitics will then show a decline of 20% in import value . its not true as you are buying the same product.

as for spending.

if the same product has sold 10 units last year for 100 baht then the spending is 1000 baht

however this year the sold 11 units wich are 10% rise in sales. however since the price of this product is lower by 20%

then 11 units represnt 880 baht. then the statistics will still show a decline of 12% in revenue.

so even when people are actually buying more units the revenue in baht is dow

In a way I can walk side by side with you.

However in the end the exporters -paid in $'s- will suffer and your explanation counts for the short term as exports will go down, simply because the baht is over-expensive.

This aside we shouldn't focus too much on these wonderful export figures as a massive 64% is High-tech (computer parts and such) related next to the fact that the same 64% is built up from -partly- imported products.

One of the dramatic results is the post by Mid -5.000 people back on the street -lack of export orders-.

The sad thing is it's not about just 5.000 workers but merely 10-15.000 people (family....) :o

At the same time those people are forced spend less since they're cut off from income.

LaoPo

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well done junta, well done.......

Baht to Gain as Rate Cuts Spur Stock Demand, UBS Says

An appreciation in the local currency makes the nation's products more expensive in global markets.

``People who are long baht in the off-shore market can't get rid of their positions so they have to continue to roll that,'' he said. ``Meanwhile capital is trapped onshore and can't get offshore.''

``The problem is that both consumer and domestic investor confidence has collapsed, resulting in a continued fall of import demand,'' said John Stuermer, head of Asian emerging markets at Bear Stearns & Co. in Singapore.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aysPa1F9NTGQ&refer=asia

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``The problem is that both consumer and domestic investor confidence has collapsed, resulting in a continued fall of import demand,'' said John Stuermer, head of Asian emerging markets at Bear Stearns & Co. in Singapore.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aysPa1F9NTGQ&refer=asia

This is only confirming what I was talking about twenty pages back on this topic. GDP figures are totally un-realistic given lead times on value added product. With domestic consumption basically in recession & add to that all major international buyers squeezing on their orders. (smaller orders with a higher frenquency to maintain volume which lessen the risks of large currency fluctuations which are being increasingly more difficult to hedge against) This is leaving a large gap between net exports & imports giving artificial export growth figures, and missleading GDP figures.

Soundman.

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Thai shares close sharply lower on profit-taking, Wall Street

BANGKOK (Thomson Financial) - Thai share prices closed sharply lower Wednesday, in line with regional stocks, on profit-taking in big-caps following overnight losses on Wall Street.

Selling was substantial after the benchmark index surged over the past week on strong regional inflows.

Hemscott Group Limited

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Baht to Gain as Rate Cuts Spur Stock Demand, UBS Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aysPa1F9NTGQ&refer=asia

UBS is drinking a bit too much IMHO...

I don't buy this theory, where foreign investors are buying the SET "because" the interest rates are going down...

What would they expect ? That the low rates would boost the economic activity in Thailand, leading to more profit for the thai companies listed on the SET ?

It's laughable. All indicators are down, investment as well as private consumption. The 4 cuts of the BOT since january have had absolutly zero effect. Nobody anyways is listening anymore to the BOT...

Yesterday Tarisa was urging thai exporters "not to panic" and to stop "selling their dollars" ! And today, the Prime minister "expressed confidence that the Bank of Thailand would be able to control the situation regarding to the baht's appreciation". It's a very cruel show. Where all those puppets are in motion, but brainless.

Back to UBS. It's amazing to see all those people trying to find explanations within Thailand : interest rates, PER, I even saw someone talking about carry trade !

The problem has not muchto do with Thailand, China or even Jupiter : the problem (the main one) is the USD. Period. The USD is sinking. The other currencies are going up, mechanically, some quicker than other due to local factors.

So the real question is not what Thailand could do (nothing on its scale), but rather what the US are going to do.

And from this side, I think the answer is obvious (for the moment) : nothing. The US can't play anymore with rates, up or down. They are spectators... Hands tied.

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Baht to Gain as Rate Cuts Spur Stock Demand, UBS Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aysPa1F9NTGQ&refer=asia

UBS is drinking a bit too much IMHO...

I don't buy this theory, where foreign investors are buying the SET "because" the interest rates are going down...

What would they expect ? That the low rates would boost the economic activity in Thailand, leading to more profit for the thai companies listed on the SET ?

It's laughable. All indicators are down, investment as well as private consumption. The 4 cuts of the BOT since january have had absolutly zero effect. Nobody anyways is listening anymore to the BOT...

Yesterday Tarisa was urging thai exporters "not to panic" and to stop "selling their dollars" ! And today, the Prime minister "expressed confidence that the Bank of Thailand would be able to control the situation regarding to the baht's appreciation". It's a very cruel show. Where all those puppets are in motion, but brainless.

Back to UBS. It's amazing to see all those people trying to find explanations within Thailand : interest rates, PER, I even saw someone talking about carry trade !

The problem has not muchto do with Thailand, China or even Jupiter : the problem (the main one) is the USD. Period. The USD is sinking. The other currencies are going up, mechanically, some quicker than other due to local factors.

So the real question is not what Thailand could do (nothing on its scale), but rather what the US are going to do.

And from this side, I think the answer is obvious (for the moment) : nothing. The US can't play anymore with rates, up or down. They are spectators... Hands tied.

I agree with you.

The USB (or: the writer) is wrong here. It has nothing to little to do with rate cuts and ALSO nothing to do with investors buying Thai stocks and Thai Exporters selling their $'s (in panic according to Mrs. Tarisa).

Investors, worldwide, buy and sell stocks into the Trillions of $'s on a daily basis and it would a bit odd to 'blame' the tax cuts AND the Thai exporters; IF that would be the case a lot of currencies would go up and down every day into the extreme...

The problem is also not the BOT (poor Mrs. Tarisa...) because the people on top of the BOT and Ministry of Finance can't do very much as their hands are tightened with strong ropes by the present 'rulers'....

Many months ago I suggested that a devaluation of the Baht was IMHO the only solution but I doubt IF they can do that, right now, with the generals riding their horses, being in control...THAT is what matters: to them.

Power :o

A devaluation of the Baht would be an enormous lose of face to the outside world and Thai people as well; they can't do that.

Instead, the Government Bureaus of Public Relations is/are working overtime, bringing 'NEWS' about Thaksin, day-in-day-out to take the focus away from the real problems.

Guess what: they are succeeding. Even on Thaivisa...the postings about Thaksin surpass the postings about the REAL PROBLEMS in Thailand by the thousands... :D

Beware Thailand, there's a bigger monster waiting....Mr. T. was a little baby in comparison what's coming.

Thailand will be thrown back into the '70's and '80's; not economically.....but democratically and THAT, dear readers, is even worse!

Doomsayer ? NO, just realistic.

LaoPo

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Expansion of Trade Ties with Iran Sets Priority for Thailand

16:01 | 2007-07-11

A0146113.jpg

TEHRAN (Fars News Agency)- Thailand's Commerce Minister Kroekrai Chiraphaet said that increasing trade exchanges with Iran sets a priority for his country's economic plans.

Chiraphaet made the remarks in a meeting with Iran's deputy commerce minister Majid Parsania in Bangkok on Tuesday.

farsnews.com

:D .............................................. :D ..................................................... :o

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Expansion of Trade Ties with Iran Sets Priority for Thailand

16:01 | 2007-07-11

A0146113.jpg

TEHRAN (Fars News Agency)- Thailand's Commerce Minister Kroekrai Chiraphaet said that increasing trade exchanges with Iran sets a priority for his country's economic plans.

Chiraphaet made the remarks in a meeting with Iran's deputy commerce minister Majid Parsania in Bangkok on Tuesday.

farsnews.com

:D .............................................. :D ..................................................... :o

OMFG, playing that card would be the fastest way to ruin for this country. Anybody looking for a huge piece of prime property (former embassy) on Wireless Road?

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Expansion of Trade Ties with Iran Sets Priority for Thailand

16:01 | 2007-07-11

A0146113.jpg

TEHRAN (Fars News Agency)- Thailand's Commerce Minister Kroekrai Chiraphaet said that increasing trade exchanges with Iran sets a priority for his country's economic plans.

Chiraphaet made the remarks in a meeting with Iran's deputy commerce minister Majid Parsania in Bangkok on Tuesday.

farsnews.com

:D .............................................. :D ..................................................... :o

OMFG, playing that card would be the fastest way to ruin for this country. Anybody looking for a huge piece of prime property (former embassy) on Wireless Road?

Government Public Relations and a nice dinner, maybe a comfortable massage afterwards. :D

Nothing special to worry about, I think.

LaoPo

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Expansion of Trade Ties with Iran Sets Priority for Thailand

16:01 | 2007-07-11

A0146113.jpg

TEHRAN (Fars News Agency)- Thailand's Commerce Minister Kroekrai Chiraphaet said that increasing trade exchanges with Iran sets a priority for his country's economic plans.

Chiraphaet made the remarks in a meeting with Iran's deputy commerce minister Majid Parsania in Bangkok on Tuesday.

farsnews.com

:D .............................................. :D ..................................................... :o

OMFG, playing that card would be the fastest way to ruin for this country. Anybody looking for a huge piece of prime property (former embassy) on Wireless Road?

Government Public Relations and a nice dinner, maybe a comfortable massage afterwards. :D

Nothing special to worry about, I think.

LaoPo

Actually not. Could be more serious. Thailand needs supplies of refined products, and has no crude oil resources to speak of. Putting together a long-term drawback deal that sends Iranian crude to Singapore in exchange for refined products like gasoline to Thailand at very favorable terms makes Thailand (ostensibly) energy independent. Could be a sophomoric move at something stupid like that. Would Freeze Thailand out of existence.

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Expansion of Trade Ties with Iran Sets Priority for Thailand

16:01 | 2007-07-11

A0146113.jpg

TEHRAN (Fars News Agency)- Thailand's Commerce Minister Kroekrai Chiraphaet said that increasing trade exchanges with Iran sets a priority for his country's economic plans.

Chiraphaet made the remarks in a meeting with Iran's deputy commerce minister Majid Parsania in Bangkok on Tuesday.

farsnews.com

:D .............................................. :D ..................................................... :o

OMFG, playing that card would be the fastest way to ruin for this country. Anybody looking for a huge piece of prime property (former embassy) on Wireless Road?

Government Public Relations and a nice dinner, maybe a comfortable massage afterwards. :D

Nothing special to worry about, I think.

LaoPo

Actually not. Could be more serious. Thailand needs supplies of refined products, and has no crude oil resources to speak of. Putting together a long-term drawback deal that sends Iranian crude to Singapore in exchange for refined products like gasoline to Thailand at very favorable terms makes Thailand (ostensibly) energy independent. Could be a sophomoric move at something stupid like that. Would Freeze Thailand out of existence.

Iran has been itching to get its hands on a key US ally, and would probably pull out a lot of stops to do so.

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A lot of the Thai Generals (CNS) studied in the US and still have strong ties with the US (military) vice versa...

I would think the US will blow the whistle once Thailand oversteps the Iranian lines, so to speak.

LaoPo

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A lot of the Thai Generals (CNS) studied in the US and still have strong ties with the US (military) vice versa...

I would think the US will blow the whistle once Thailand oversteps the Iranian lines, so to speak.

LaoPo

Ok, last comment then I shut the f up. This type of thing would never make it past the refineries in Singapore given Singapore/US ties and Singapore's reliance on America. No more comments.

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A lot of the Thai Generals (CNS) studied in the US and still have strong ties with the US (military) vice versa...

I would think the US will blow the whistle once Thailand oversteps the Iranian lines, so to speak.

LaoPo

Ok, last comment then I shut the f up. This type of thing would never make it past the refineries in Singapore given Singapore/US ties and Singapore's reliance on America. No more comments.

You're right; didn't even think of that.

OK, now I shut the f up as well....... :o

LaoPo

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Moderators, I respectfully request you to delete all my posts from 1008 onward, as they may not be advisable to have them on this board and you should determine if all these threads are in keeping with TV policy

Thanks and regards.

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Fury over factory's shock closure Jobless workers blockroad to Suvarnabhumi

PENCHAN CHAROENSUTHIPAN, SUTHIWIT CHAYUTWORAKAN & ARANEE JAIIMSIN

The shock closure of a textile factory sparked an uproar yesterday as the Garment Labour Federation accused the firm of relocating to a neighbouring country to cut costs at the expense of about 5,000 workers who were immediately made jobless.

Promma Phumpan, chairman of the Garment Labour Federation, denounced the sudden closure of the factory, owned by Thai Silp South East Asia Import Export Co, as irresponsible and opportunistic.

Story Here

The start of a trend?

Soundman.

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Fury over factory's shock closure Jobless workers blockroad to Suvarnabhumi

PENCHAN CHAROENSUTHIPAN, SUTHIWIT CHAYUTWORAKAN & ARANEE JAIIMSIN

The shock closure of a textile factory sparked an uproar yesterday as the Garment Labour Federation accused the firm of relocating to a neighbouring country to cut costs at the expense of about 5,000 workers who were immediately made jobless.

Promma Phumpan, chairman of the Garment Labour Federation, denounced the sudden closure of the factory, owned by Thai Silp South East Asia Import Export Co, as irresponsible and opportunistic.

Story Here

The start of a trend?

Soundman.

Wow, I think I know someone who used to work for that company, because other than location it sounds like them. She worked outside Bangkok, but the customers are the same. Actually they have more, but maybe this location just was those 2 brands. She told me they were opening a factory in Vietnam, but I assumed that meant in addition to what they were doing here. Think the factory is the one I mentioned at the end of paragraph 3 of this thread:

Link to Old Topic Here

She quit that job 2 months ago, and I'm now thinking she was tipped off.

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I don't know the broader implications of this, but it doesn't seem to bode well for the country when factories start closing, especially if they are relocating. Another factor to keep in mind is that a lot of the workers are quite poorly educated and not easily trained or re-trained for other jobs.

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