Thailand's tourism industry won't recover from Covid-19 for many years, says top Thai bank

[Cabradelmar]

Many of analysis are myopic. This is a global pandemic. Of course there will always be some willing travelers. But the entire world's ability to travel (due to means, or fear, or the changing nature of the destination - higher crime, price gouging, etc.) will make once desired destinations, no longer desirable. I feel for Thailand. I do. But they have put too many of their eggs into the tourism basket, and the the basket has hit the floor. Worldwide, hotels, restaurants and entertainment venues are closing up shop. It won't be a flip of a switch to bring them back. And many will never reopen. Quarantine and limiting movement once in country is a non starter. That will not attract tourist. The best idea is to test travelers for the virus before arrival (forget all the other idiotic pre/post-travel requirements/rituals). Get off this notion that zero infections is the goal. It's impossible to achieve. Otherwise, Thailand will indeed be hoisted by its own petard.

[rabang]

1 hour ago, nchuckle said:

A very one dimensional assessment focusing solely on number of deaths . This is about balance and Thailand has achieved none. 59 Covid deaths but nothing done about 25,000 road deaths each year. This has only come about through trashing the economy,destroying the huge tourist industry putting millions out of work and losing thousands more to suicide through desperation. Of Sweden’s 5,500 deaths over half were care home residents-average life expectancy 1.2 years-. Thailand’s demographics ,health ,climate etc indicate that it would have been likely one of the less hard hit. All that’s gonna happen now is the cure will be worse than the illness and eventually when economics finally dictates they will have to open up anyway,so all they’ll have achieved is pay a huge price to back end load the price in lives they will inevitably have to pay anyway. Unless you think your artificially induced and unsustainable'safe' feeling in Pattaya will be the new normal while millions of Thais suffer ?

Europe is starting to open up and normalizing with borders opening without quarantines. Yes, there are more cases appearing but they don't seem to result in hospitalizations or excessive amounts of dead. Eventually other countries will probably have to follow if they don't want to spend the next few years in a North Korea mode.

[86Tiger]

You know, one thing that is not mentioned lately:  testing positive for covid 19 is not a death sentence.  +99 percent of everyone that test positive will at most have flu like symptoms week or so and go on with life being healthy again, many not even realizing they are positive if not revealed by test.  The world has absolutely gone crazy over this thing.

 

 

[rumak]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

The grim outlook was part of many stats that will come as no surprise to anyone in the industry or even the casual observer.

i think that we can just post this obvious fact in response to every "research institute" report or govt.

economic forum report or academic report or TAT  statistic or.......................

 

    of course it could all change on a baht if Thailand just let all long stay expats and also tourists come back without going through the guillotine err quarantine.

Life would be back to normal before you could say Deputy Prime Minister and Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul

Edited September 11, 2020 by rumak

[TERMINATOR3AB]

No words to even comment  sorry 

 

Good  Luck Thailand 

[tomauasia]

Now Thai banks along with the uneducated army are fortune tellers as well as anti white groups..Thai banks been robbing foreigners blind. Funny nobody listening to you LOL 

 

[Airbagwill]

In Thai and other economies around the world it would seem there is a real chance of social unrest.

[LeoCesar]

7 hours ago, Flying Saucage said:

"Thailand's tourism industry won't recover from Covid-19 for many years, says top Thai bank"

 

Dear Khun Phachornphot, I give you a hint:

 

It's only partly Covid-19 itself which causes this. The bigger part is your Thai compatriots and governments paranoid reaction on Covid. You should think a little bit more about this!

Assuming they can think, which they can´t.

[Nout]

6 hours ago, JusticeGB said:

First realistic report. What tourist would want to come with the current paperwork hurdles and prison like expensive quarantine. Also most tourism centres don't have many decent restaurants left to eat in. Over half of the restaurants in Pattaya are shut down many for good. 

Hundreds are open. Pattaya had too many bars. It needed a cull. Pattaya is much better for restaurants than any other city in Thailand

[rumak]

i figure my post will get the usual barrage of "stupid idiot"  darts .   Like, hey ru noi,  maybe you don't care if the whole world dies.   what if it was your great grandmother .

 

ok, look.  i don't spend pages and pages arguing about this.  here is my solution,  drink it or shoot it,     (for opening the borders again !)

 

Get the 2675 ministries and their assemblage together and let ru noi talk.   I would tell them to stop with submarines and pattaya boardwalks and quarantine for profit schemes and just do one thing.

 

Take all this self serving manpower and get to work.   Instead of hotels open centers where those infected can be screened.    Set up the equipment and training for those seriously affected  .

Don't have meetings and more meetings .  stop this nonsense.   Get to work to prepare sites especially for covid instead of basically shutting down all hospitals to all the other needed services because 6 people were found to be infected.

 

And lastly,  stop scaring the s##t out of everyone.  Preach that they should eat with the right hand and shake all the politicians hands with your left hand.    Then be sure to wash it.

 

this has been a public service announcement.    i am going on vacation now

Edited September 11, 2020 by rumak

[Airbagwill]

1 minute ago, Nout said:

Hundreds are open. Pattaya had too many bars. It needed a cull. Pattaya is much better for restaurants than any other city in Thailand

TH trouble with a cull, is it basically will be a symptom of a shrunken market. 

It will be interesting to see how Thailand handles this.....no doubt there will be austerity - whether the government clamps down or finances recovery will depend on what kind of destination Thailand becomes.

 

Not only will the country be impoverished but so will the countries who supply customers.

 

Visitors are not going to come to a Thailand "just as it used to be", it will be a smaller industry, and quite possibly cost more and have less facilities (see "cull" above) and less to offer in many ways.

 

Any recovery of natural resources seems to be beyond the ken of this government or any previous government, and without a clear philosophy of how to go forward I can't see a future of roses.

[Miami007]

6 hours ago, GaryAdriaenssens said:

So let's get out & emigrate en mass, normal and educated Thais included!!! Let the generals and other unqualified bureaucrats behind with their mess.. ????????????

Are you going too? Or just asking others to leave ????????

[Lacessit]

The first time I have seen a realistic assessment of the tourist decline by a Thai with seniority. The TAT and the generals will not be happy with his revelation the emperor has no clothes.

IMO the way forward would be a rapid COVID-19 test for arrivals, with only those testing positive going into quarantine, paid for by the tourist industry. That would give certainty to tourists, all they can see is hurdles at present.

Having said that, even if that was implemented, the cost of airline travel will be some multiple of what it is now. The days of budget international travel are over.

Edited September 11, 2020 by Lacessit

[Miami007]

53 minutes ago, rabang said:

Europe is starting to open up and normalizing with borders opening without quarantines. Yes, there are more cases appearing but they don't seem to result in hospitalizations or excessive amounts of dead. Eventually other countries will probably have to follow if they don't want to spend the next few years in a North Korea mode.

Unfortunately,  the lockdown brigade in Europe seems to be winning the war there as well.

Hungary- closed to all foreigners, 

Spain- anyone visiting has to go under quarantine upon return in most countries

UK - visitors to France have to quarantine etc, new restrictions coming

 

All in the name of getting to zero infections - which is an illusion

 

 

[Magenta408]

The equation is simple, if you want tourism you had best start to let people come into the country. You don't have to be an Einstein to figure this out. Tourists bring tourism dollars and that spells employment. Somehow, WHO money seems more attractive for the time being.

[Moon6966]

If they keep borders closed what do they expect 

1st move to recovery is open border a let them in 

Without mad querntine prices a all that 

A then you have a start if you don't open sure 

You will never get nowhere. Thailand will return to be a fishing village 

[elliss]

8 hours ago, Flying Saucage said:

"Thailand's tourism industry won't recover from Covid-19 for many years, says top Thai bank"

 

Dear Khun Phachornphot, I give you a hint:

 

It's only partly Covid-19 itself which causes this. The bigger part is your Thai compatriots and governments paranoid reaction on Covid. You should think a little bit more about this!

 

    Those,  duly   elected military officers , in office .

  Are not in the least , concerned about the opinions of Thai people .

  Let alone the opinions of  foreigners . 

Go home, if you have one ..? 

 

 

Edited September 11, 2020 by elliss
spelling

[DrTuner]

Just read how Finland has decided to do it.

 

If you're from a country with less than (or exactly) 25 cases per 100,000 people within last two weeks, can enter without testing.

If you're from a country with more than 25 cases per 100,000 people within last two weeks, can enter if you have a negative test result (didn't say how recent but I suppose a few days).

 

No quarantines.

 

Pretty straight forward and something Thailand should consider.

Edited September 11, 2020 by DrTuner

[elliss]

6 hours ago, Sharp said:

The present Government reactions look as though they will destroy tourism and the greater economy far worse than the virus could ever do! 

Correct . 

    Tourism , as Thailand once knew it , will never return ..

      

[geriatrickid]

22 minutes ago, Moon6966 said:

If they keep borders closed what do they expect 

1st move to recovery is open border a let them in 

Without mad querntine prices a all that 

A then you have a start if you don't open sure 

You will never get nowhere. Thailand will return to be a fishing village 

It makes it easier for you if you blame the administration for acting responsibly. Ok.

Maybe you  are right. Let's see.  Did you do the  economic projection?

In Thailand;

What is the cost  of care for a Covid19 patient.

What is the expected  number of infected Thais if your strategy is followed?

What will be the cost to the Thai economy when  manufacturing and other key  businessess are shut down because of  workplace infections?

What is the  cost to  Thailand's people when they can not access critical care because hospitals cannot continue on an as is basis because of a highly infectious disease?

 

There are economic and social costs to opening the  Thai economy to your  sacred foreign visitors. Did you calculate them?

If you have not, it is irresponsible to demand the  Thai government change its policy. You want them to  to effect a policy that will do more damage to the economy than is the case. The current position takes the hit due to the loss of foreign visitors. Your position would  allow a widespread massive economic hit that could not be managed or contained.  Do the math.

 

if your position is economically  viable, I am all for it. We all are.   Show us the numbers.

 

 

 

 

[Alex80]

3 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

It makes it easier for you if you blame the administration for acting responsibly. Ok.

Maybe you  are right. Let's see.  Did you do the  economic projection?

In Thailand;

What is the cost  of care for a Covid19 patient.

What is the expected  number of infected Thais if your strategy is followed?

What will be the cost to the Thai economy when  manufacturing and other key  businessess are shut down because of  workplace infections?

What is the  cost to  Thailand's people when they can not access critical care because hospitals cannot continue on an as is basis because of a highly infectious disease?

 

There are economic and social costs to opening the  Thai economy to your  sacred foreign visitors. Did you calculate them?

If you have not, it is irresponsible to demand the  Thai government change its policy. You want them to  to effect a policy that will do more damage to the economy than is the case. The current position takes the hit due to the loss of foreign visitors. Your position would  allow a widespread massive economic hit that could not be managed or contained.  Do the math.

 

if your position is economically  viable, I am all for it. We all are.   Show us the numbers.

 

 

 

 

Actually Thailand is losing 20% of GDP (probably more) with zero benefits and zero support to those who needs it.

Investing 10% of GDP to increase health care system while opening again to tourism is a long lasting benefit. Also, total closoure is something that will hit the country for many years, even after covid will be gone.

[geriatrickid]

16 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Just read how Finland has decided to do it.

 

If you're from a country with less than (or exactly) 25 cases per 100,000 people within last two weeks, can enter without testing.

If you're from a country with more than 25 cases per 100,000 people within last two weeks, can enter if you have a negative test result (didn't say how recent but I suppose a few days).

 

No quarantines.

 

Pretty straight forward and something Thailand should consider.

Ok, but you are misleading people.  You are giving the impression that Finland changed its rules and has opened its borders.  It has not.

Finland is  still  classifying countries as subject to Restriction 1 or 2 and maintains some  specific exclusions for non essential workers. Most of the world is excluded. Yes, people from New Zealand, Thailand,  the Baltic states, and the UK can enter. The number of such visitors has historically been low. The USa  and most of western Europe is excluded.

 

It is not a fair comparison.  Thailand is a much larger country with a significantly larger number of visitors. It is easier to manage the small numbers in Finland than it is in Thailand. Foreign tourism in Finland from September until December is hardly a big thing.

 

 

 

[geriatrickid]

14 minutes ago, Alex80 said:

Actually Thailand is losing 20% of GDP (probably more) with zero benefits and zero support to those who needs it.

Investing 10% of GDP to increase health care system while opening again to tourism is a long lasting benefit. Also, total closoure is something that will hit the country for many years, even after covid will be gone.

20% really.

Please show us where the "20% of GDP (probably more)" is supported.

Inventing a value isn't factual.

 

 

 

[androokery]

3 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

Ok, but you are misleading people.  You are giving the impression that Finland changed its rules and has opened its borders.  It has not.

Finland is  still  classifying countries as subject to Restriction 1 or 2 and maintains some  specific exclusions for non essential workers. Most of the world is excluded. Yes, people from New Zealand, Thailand,  the Baltic states, and the UK can enter. The number of such visitors has historically been low. The USa  and most of western Europe is excluded.

 

It is not a fair comparison.  Thailand is a much larger country with a significantly larger number of visitors. It is easier to manage the small numbers in Finland than it is in Thailand. Foreign tourism in Finland from September until December is hardly a big thing.

 

 

 

Finland didn’t welcome millions of tourists before, and while the weather is challenging there from Sep to Dec, which may discourage a lot of people, I thought I should at least tell you there was once a thriving business at Thomas Cook putting on flights from the UK, sending kids and their parents to Finland to meet Santa. Because, obviously, Santa lives in Finland.

[vinny41]

4 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

20% really.

Please show us where the "20% of GDP (probably more)" is supported.

Inventing a value isn't factual.

 

 

 

World Bank has indicated international tourism accounts for 9.82% of Thailand GDP when people quote larger numbers they are referring to combined international tourism and domestic tourism figures 

https://qz.com/1724042/the-countries-most-reliant-on-tourism-for-gdp/

[androokery]

6 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

20% really.

Please show us where the "20% of GDP (probably more)" is supported.

Inventing a value isn't factual.

 

 

 

Does it matter? Different sources use different methods to calculate this number. It’s somewhere in the ball park of 12-20 %. So in sheer MONEY it is a lot. I’ve always thought that it’s not a very interesting number. I mean, it’s the amount of money. It doesn’t reflect the proportion of the population depending on that particular industry. Some parts of a country’s GDP has an impact on a few very wealthy individuals. But tourism is a business where the money is spread around a LOT. Even if tourism accounts for 18% of GDP, I’m pretty sure the tourism industry supports more than 18% of the population. 

[steven100]

10 hours ago, webfact said:

He noted that arrivals were down from 39 million to just 6.8 million tourists. 

well he did see something on the report

[Lacessit]

28 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

World Bank has indicated international tourism accounts for 9.82% of Thailand GDP when people quote larger numbers they are referring to combined international tourism and domestic tourism figures 

https://qz.com/1724042/the-countries-most-reliant-on-tourism-for-gdp/

True enough. However, domestic tourism would be down as well. When people have no jobs and no income, they won't be moving far from home.

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, geriatrickid said:

Ok, but you are misleading people.  You are giving the impression that Finland changed its rules and has opened its borders.  It has not.

Actually, this was in the news just now, it's fresh off the parliament. They will now change the law so they can enact it. It's in Finnish only, on www.uusisuomi.fi , not allowed to link because it's not in English but you can use Google translate. The decision was reached last evening. They are opening up.

Edited September 11, 2020 by DrTuner

[DrTuner]

50 minutes ago, androokery said:

Finland didn’t welcome millions of tourists before, and while the weather is challenging there from Sep to Dec, which may discourage a lot of people, I thought I should at least tell you there was once a thriving business at Thomas Cook putting on flights from the UK, sending kids and their parents to Finland to meet Santa. Because, obviously, Santa lives in Finland.

Yes, I visited Lapland ( and said hi to Santa ) last December and there were far more British than Finns there, thousands of them. Bloody islanders stole my sons sled (pulkka) ???? First identified covid case was a Chinese tourist in Lapland. They do get a fair amount of visitors these days.

Edited September 11, 2020 by DrTuner