Expert Confirms COVID-19 Incubation Period

[FarFlungFalang]

1 minute ago, Matzzon said:

Now you change the discussion to that you believe he was infected in Thailand. Yeah, sure, it´s a possibility. It´s also 1 chance in about 100 that he had a longer incubation period. You tried to deny that before, as something that did not exist. Now you realized that it does, and must turn the conversation.

No change in my argument,I've always maintained it was more likely he was infected in Thailand.I have also not said that it was not possible that he may have been infected before arriving in Thailand only that it was not likely he was as suggested by the good Doctor.My argument has always been that if he was infected in Uzbekistan prior to arriving he would have to have been incubating for 28 days which is something that has not been documented before there for it was not likely.What I denied before was that it was not a 1 in 100 chance of that he had a incubation period of 28 days,I never denied that the chance of someone having an incubation period longer than 14 or even 21 days.There's a difference there of 7 days.The chance of the footballer having an incubation period of 28 days I put at 1 in 28.5 million since there has not been any recorded cases of 28 day incubation in the 28.5 million cases to date.Not impossible but not likely.Feel free to "double check" and see what I wrote.

[OldMan88]

There are several published studies which found that the Covid-19 incubation period can exceed 14 days in 5% to 10% if cases and can be 30 days or more in about 1% of cases.

[FarFlungFalang]

30 minutes ago, OldMan88 said:

There are several published studies which found that the Covid-19 incubation period can exceed 14 days in 5% to 10% if cases and can be 30 days or more in about 1% of cases.

Can you post any links?

[Badboldie]

What catagory or incubation period does the other 4% of the population fall into? 

[RichardColeman]

1 hour ago, OldMan88 said:

There are several published studies which found that the Covid-19 incubation period can exceed 14 days in 5% to 10% if cases and can be 30 days or more in about 1% of cases.

That would be a big nail in the thai tourism coffin - a 30 day plus quarantine !

[JCP108]

7 hours ago, Sheryl said:

 

No, it is about 1 in a hundred. it does happen, just unusual.

Is there a source for that?

[Matzzon]

3 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

What I denied before was that it was not a 1 in 100 chance of that he had a incubation period of 28 days

Nobody else was referring to only 28 days regarding that statement either. Where do you get everything from? 

You did turn the conversation in another direction, because you lost the first one. Simple. Now, don´t act like a child that lost their candy. Just admit, and you will feel much better. ????????????????????

[JCP108]

What are the odds that the incubation is sometimes long enough that we can say that those five people who were recently reported to have tested positive right after they had travelled from Thailand to Japan didn't get infected while in Thailand? Do we know how long each of those five people were in Thailand before goingn to Japan? 

[FarFlungFalang]

41 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

Nobody else was referring to only 28 days regarding that statement either. Where do you get everything from? 

You did turn the conversation in another direction, because you lost the first one. Simple. Now, don´t act like a child that lost their candy. Just admit, and you will feel much better. ????????????????????

If you read the articles the good Doctor said he believed the infection occurred in Uzbekistan not realising that the infection would have taken place 28 days before testing positive he then changed direction saying is possible for incubation to be longer than 21 days you'll notice in the first article there's no mention of 21 days only longer than 14 days.

 

Yong Poovorawan, a virology expert from Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University, said the virus incubation period in the man would have been longer than 14 days and it was unlikely to have been domestically transmitted.

 

In order for the transmission to have occurred in his home country where he tested negative  it would have been 28 days prior.The doctor didn't mention the number of days but he certainly mentions the time frame.It was in the second article where he starts talking about 21 day incubation times.Surely you recognise where the 28 days comes from by now?It certainly wasn't me who brought it into the discussion as the good Doctor did the when he said he believed the infection occurred in the footballers home country.

I'm starting to wonder if you are fully loaded as your signature indicates or if you might be a six pack short!

Edited September 13, 2020 by FarFlungFalang

[Matzzon]

27 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

saying is possible for incubation to be longer than 21 days you'll notice in the first article there's no mention of 21 days only longer than 14 days.

And you are wondering if I am a six pack short???? Marvelous!

You know that longer than 14 days, also can be longer than 1 days, right? Or does longer than 14 days stop at 21 days for you. Hmmm, and??? yeah, you were talking about a six pack short??? oh dear! You are grasping at straws, just to keep yourself above the flood of nonsense that you created with the last 10-20 posts.

[Sheryl]

54 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

What are the odds that the incubation is sometimes long enough that we can say that those five people who were recently reported to have tested positive right after they had travelled from Thailand to Japan didn't get infected while in Thailand? Do we know how long each of those five people were in Thailand before goingn to Japan? 

 

They had all been in Thailand (and nowhere else) for quite some time, as in months. So - no. Ditto the arrival in Malaysia and I think there was also one in Korea.

 

 

 

[bermondburi]

7 hours ago, Sheryl said:

I would say both are unlikely but obviously one of the two must be the case.

Why would picking up the infection after he left quarantine be unlikely? 

 

And if both possibilities are unlikely, are you saying that it was likely that he got infected either while travelling or in quarantine, and the test results in quarantine were negative because he was in incubation period. 

 

 

[Sheryl]

5 minutes ago, bermondburi said:

Why would picking up the infection after he left quarantine be unlikely? 

 

And if both possibilities are unlikely, are you saying that it was likely that he got infected either while travelling or in quarantine, and the test results in quarantine were negative because he was in incubation period. 

 

 

Getting it after leaving quarantine,  cases are few in Thailand and period of exposure was short (and not known to include any returnees or high risk venues) so while possible, an unusual event.

 

 I think during  quarantine is the most unlikely. While travelling or after leaving quarantine in Thailand would be my best guess.

 

It is quite commo0n to test negative in early stages. Even if symptomatic. False positive test results are rare (1-2%) but false negatives are quite common.

[mikebell]

On 9/13/2020 at 9:38 AM, holy cow cm said:

He may be well educated and brilliant, but he is just regurgitating what was said several months ago by non Thai. This is not anything new or anything he personally came to the conclusion of. 

I agree - I seriously doubt the existence of any well-qualified experts if they went to school here.  Never a day goes by without a self-important person, a crony of the In-crowd, spouting the 'bleedin' obvious'.

[spidermike007]

Unless he was in quarantine for a month, he could have caught it ahywhere. How scientific are these conclusions? How would they know what other contacts he has had, with football groupies, relatives, friends or the public? 

 

He mainly stayed with three friends. Did he ever leave the house? Did he ever have any visitors? Was any of this monitored? 

Edited September 14, 2020 by spidermike007

[polpott]

On 9/13/2020 at 3:14 AM, Matzzon said:

Why are you calling the guy a muppet? Where does it stand that he is an expert on Covid-19? The word expert in the headline refers to that he is an educated and experienced virologist.

And Thai. QED.

 

Move on. Nothing to see here.

 

 

Edited September 14, 2020 by polpott

[steven100]

23 hours ago, Matzzon said:

Where in the world did you get that number from? You sure you are not spinning out of the blue?

off a roulette wheel 

[FarFlungFalang]

49 minutes ago, steven100 said:

off a roulette wheel 

Maybe I just spun out!