What's your thought on kbank stock values?

[villageidiotY2K]

Hi folks, now the kbank's stock dropped to 80 baht a pop. 

A year ago was around 170 baht. 

I've heard they are in huge debt compared to other banks. does anyone know why is that?

Some predict it will be around 70 baht till 2022.

 

But I've got a hunch they'll be back close to norm around mid 2021.

 

How about your thoughts? 

 

[86Tiger]

Well, to recovery my instinct is to wait until the depths of economic crisis is revealed.  

 

 Every sector is down and there can be no guess to recovery timeline until they have a plan to open for business.  I believe the the real crisis hasn't begun for Thailand.  Longer they wait to implement a plan only increases the pain.

[Leaver]

On 9/15/2020 at 12:41 PM, villageidiotY2K said:

But I've got a hunch they'll be back close to norm around mid 2021.

Why is that?  

 

Thailand is nowhere near the bottom.  Plenty of more economy pain to come.  

[villageidiotY2K]

I'm not economic sound(or just bout anything) , but from what I see more thais with office, manufacturing jobs, biz owners are spending much on cars, houses, domestic tourisms due to bargains and lower loan interests. Unlike factory workers I dont know anyone being laid off. 

 

I believe these workers assets are being seized by the banks and sold to those capable of paying up faster hence improving the cash flow of the banks. 

 

What's more, factories can use the excuse of covid to minimize this year and next's bonus payment from say 4 months to 0.5 months. 

If say average of the base salary is 30kb, 120kb bonus per annum with 300 indirect staffs, that's 36mb VS 4.5mb, saving 31mb annually by reducing bonus. 

Laid off workers may get severance pay but those on subcontract can't. 

This extra cash may support the loan payments for this year and next not hitting the banks.

 

So overall, I believe factories are still capable of paying up the loans by reducing bonus, reducing over time and yet covering the operation expenses by reduced sales amount. 

And middle class and up are upgrading their life style with more guaranteed faster rate of return for the banks. 

As long as the companies being able to pay back the loan and pay these mid class for their endeavor spendings, I can visualize the stock value coming to 100bahts and up. 

 

Now pls invest in kbank stocks and help me breakeven! 

I'm at 500kb loss atm.... Jesus

[Barnabe]

Don't get this the wrong way, but sounds like you're way in over your head, and rationalising both your losses and future prospects. My opinion is the same as other posters - the pain has just started, and it will most likely go down further.

 

You're in a tough situation, and let's think about your options:
1) eat the loss

2) eat half the loss, keep the other in

3) keep everything in

 

I really don't expect the stock to come back up to those levels for AT LEAST two years, maybe 3 to 5.

 

So I guess the question you have to ask yourself is - are you prepared to keep that money "invested" for 3+ years? Bear in mind in those 3 years you might only end up with the same amount you invested in.

If you sell and realise the loss (or half of it) and invest the rest in a stock market index and / or gold / silver and possibly make up some of that loss in the next few years. Like I said, tough choices, and an expensive lesson.

 

Again don't take this the wrong way, but you don't sound like you have enough knowledge to do single stock investing. I'd suggest you stay away from it in the future and buy cheap stock market indices instead. If you're adventurous and looking to gamble, I'd suggest bitcoin instead.

 

Edited September 17, 2020 by Barnabe

[fabruer]

For those of you invested in Thai equity or debt, could you please point me to online brokers that you are using?

Would that be international brokers or are you using Thai specific brokers?

 

Now with regards to your Kbank stock: If I were in your situation, I would hold the stocks (as I am not expecting Kbank to fo bankrupt despite their debt levels) and at the same time collect their dividends.

If you don't need the money, don't sell the stock.

[villageidiotY2K]

I'm using ibulaung securities broker part of bangkok bank. 

Basically you pop up in one of their offices and they will set up an account, then you need to download their app on ur mobile and can start trading online by urself anytime anywhere. No need to pass through the broker for any transaction though they will charge 0.01% and other commissions per buy/sell amount and automatically deducted. 

 

Attached is the interface of this app. 

 

Dividends are <deleted> and I'm sort of a day trader style. 

I've put in 1.6mb and now it's 2.0mb but current value loss of around 0.6mb, so basically net loss is 0.2mb.

I belive they will recover maybe in a couple of years as these big major companies are less likely to go bankrupt. If I see the values lowering more, I may pour in more cash maybe 0.5mb and be ready to rock and endure the depression. 

 

[Barnabe]

So here's something for you to think about. Below is the stock price of two of the biggest banks in the world that have not hit their previous highs in over 10 years...

 

Royal Bank of Scotland / NatWest

 

 

Deutsche Bank

 

 

 

Edited September 18, 2020 by Barnabe

[RAZZELL]

On 9/18/2020 at 8:19 AM, villageidiotY2K said:

I'm using ibulaung securities broker part of bangkok bank. 

Basically you pop up in one of their offices and they will set up an account, then you need to download their app on ur mobile and can start trading online by urself anytime anywhere. No need to pass through the broker for any transaction though they will charge 0.01% and other commissions per buy/sell amount and automatically deducted. 

 

Attached is the interface of this app. 

 

Dividends are <deleted> and I'm sort of a day trader style. 

I've put in 1.6mb and now it's 2.0mb but current value loss of around 0.6mb, so basically net loss is 0.2mb.

I belive they will recover maybe in a couple of years as these big major companies are less likely to go bankrupt. If I see the values lowering more, I may pour in more cash maybe 0.5mb and be ready to rock and endure the depression. 

 

 

How did you find the account opening process? Was it quite straightforward?

 

Why did you open an account here...isn't capital gains 20%?

 

RAZZ

 

[Airalee]

On 9/17/2020 at 10:01 AM, villageidiotY2K said:

I'm not economic sound(or just bout anything) , but from what I see more thais with office, manufacturing jobs, biz owners are spending much on cars, houses, domestic tourisms due to bargains and lower loan interests. Unlike factory workers I dont know anyone being laid off. 

 

I believe these workers assets are being seized by the banks and sold to those capable of paying up faster hence improving the cash flow of the banks. 

 

What's more, factories can use the excuse of covid to minimize this year and next's bonus payment from say 4 months to 0.5 months. 

If say average of the base salary is 30kb, 120kb bonus per annum with 300 indirect staffs, that's 36mb VS 4.5mb, saving 31mb annually by reducing bonus. 

Laid off workers may get severance pay but those on subcontract can't. 

This extra cash may support the loan payments for this year and next not hitting the banks.

 

So overall, I believe factories are still capable of paying up the loans by reducing bonus, reducing over time and yet covering the operation expenses by reduced sales amount. 

And middle class and up are upgrading their life style with more guaranteed faster rate of return for the banks. 

As long as the companies being able to pay back the loan and pay these mid class for their endeavor spendings, I can visualize the stock value coming to 100bahts and up. 

 

Now pls invest in kbank stocks and help me breakeven! 

I'm at 500kb loss atm.... Jesus

Where do you get your statistics regarding Thais spending more on cars, houses, domestic tourism and “upgrading their lifestyle”?  How do you know about the current salaries, bonus structured etc. within Thai companies let alone the solvency of said companies.

 

If I were to go by my own anecdotal evidence from what I saw in Krabi and what I read about the dismal uptake of the “rao tiaw duaygan” program, I don’t see how domestic tourism is a factor in any kind of recovery.  With regards to the general economy, I could state that if I went off of numbers of customers that I consistently see at the Best Beef restaurant on Sukhumvit, then the economy is roaring.  But if I go off of the lack of customers at a few malls I have been to recently, it would tell me something different.
 

With regards to investing in any particular bank, I would want to know what kinds of loans (And the terms of such loans) they were making and to whom.  Are they primarily focused on consumer lending?  Mortgages?  Commercial lending?  Are such stats even available?
 

It’s all to opaque for me to feel safe investing in any bank stocks right now.

[Airalee]

On 9/18/2020 at 2:03 PM, Barnabe said:

So here's something for you to think about. Below is the stock price of two of the biggest banks in the world that have not hit their previous highs in over 10 years...

 

Royal Bank of Scotland / NatWest

 

 

Deutsche Bank

 

 

 

To put Deutsche into even better perspective...I got stung buying in at $14 and change back in June of 2016 thinking that it can’t possibly go any lower as it was at that time,  below the 2009 lows.  Wish I sold everything when they were offering their options to shareholders (I sold the options at the time).

 

 

[BritManToo]

1 hour ago, Airalee said:

With regards to investing in any particular bank, I would want to know what kinds of loans (And the terms of such loans) they were making and to whom.  Are they primarily focused on consumer lending?  Mortgages?  Commercial lending?  Are such stats even available?

A news story published in TV last month proposed Thai banks were taking steps to offset losses from 40% of all current loans defaulting. I wouldn't be investing or even putting 400k/800k in Thai banks if I had any options.

Edited September 21, 2020 by BritManToo

[Airalee]

3 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

A news story published in TV last month proposed Thai banks were taking steps to offset losses from 40% of all current loans defaulting. I wouldn't be investing or even putting 400k/800k in Thai banks if I had any options.

Our 400k/800k wouldn’t be nearly enough to backstop 40% of loans defaulting in a fractional reserve system.  Did the story allude to what these proposed steps were or was it the usual vague Thai mumbo jumbo?