8 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

If you listen to most T-V members, the sky is always falling and all of us farangs were supposed to be kicked out 20 years ago ????????????

It's gradually falling I would say, with great success from the current administration.

 

If Kasikorn estimated 80K "retirees" in 2018, I estimate probably 160K in 2014 and as of today, 20-40K.

 

Many are gone already.

 

So now, the challenge is to thin this 20-40K further, and that will be easily achieved over the next 2 years.

 

Don't tell me you reckon any fresh retirees are coming with current scammy requirements, do you?

22 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

During the last financial crash, 2008/09, dozens of Western banks and financial institutions went bust or needed government bailouts...none in Thailand. I'd be more worried about having funds in over-leveraged Western banks than Thai ones.

But during the Asian Financial crisis in 1997, lots of Thai banks went bust because they loaned money for real estate which resulted in thousands of NPLs.

7 minutes ago, Banana7 said:

But during the Asian Financial crisis in 1997, lots of Thai banks went bust because they loaned money for real estate which resulted in thousands of NPLs.

"Lots of Thai banks went bust"  I do not think so. The only one I actually remember was Bangkok Bank of Crooks Comerce which was taken over by the bank of Thailand and nobody lost money.

 

It was not the Thai banks that got hit by NPLs as most property companies had borrowed from overseas banks as the interest rates were less than half the 16% in Thailand.

 

After the crash companies had to find almost double the amount of Baht to service their loans so it was companies that failed not Thai banks.

 

24 minutes ago, Banana7 said:

But during the Asian Financial crisis in 1997, lots of Thai banks went bust because they loaned money for real estate which resulted in thousands of NPLs.

I’m betting it will be worse this time around.  They can extend and pretend all they want but the ugly unknown is...are the loans gonna get paid back?  I’m betting not.

 

In the last 15 years, (2005-2020) household debt has more than quadrupled whereas GDP and GDP per capita has less than tripled.
 

https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=775&language=eng

 

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/THA/thailand/gdp-gross-domestic-product

I know Thais (some who own multiple condos...currently with no renters) taking out second mortgages in order to pay the first mortgage (and still not curtailing their discretionary expenditure).

Edited October 11, 20205 yr by Airalee

16 minutes ago, ThaidDown said:

"Lots of Thai banks went bust"  I do not think so. The only one I actually remember was Bangkok Bank of Crooks Comerce which was taken over by the bank of Thailand and nobody lost money.

 

It was not the Thai banks that got hit by NPLs as most property companies had borrowed from overseas banks as the interest rates were less than half the 16% in Thailand.

 

After the crash companies had to find almost double the amount of Baht to service their loans so it was companies that failed not Thai banks.

 

Here is what I remember.

 

In 1997, once Chawalit resigned, his Government was replaced by a Democrat Party-led coalition under Chuan Leekpai. The new finance minister, Tarrin Nimmanhaemind, was regarded as a reliable “bankers’ man”. This suggestion was born out by the fact that the Government quickly moved to nationalise the private debts of 56 failed banks and finance companies, which the Chawalit Government had already closed, and then proceeded to set aside a further 300 billion baht of state funds to boost the capital of existing banks. In total, the Government committed at least 1.2 trillion baht of public money to prop up the banking system and the savings of the rich and middle-classes.

Edited October 11, 20205 yr by Banana7

On 10/11/2020 at 3:54 PM, ThaidDown said:

"Lots of Thai banks went bust"  I do not think so. The only one I actually remember was Bangkok Bank of Crooks Comerce which was taken over by the bank of Thailand and nobody lost money.

 

It was not the Thai banks that got hit by NPLs as most property companies had borrowed from overseas banks as the interest rates were less than half the 16% in Thailand.

 

After the crash companies had to find almost double the amount of Baht to service their loans so it was companies that failed not Thai banks.

 

"At the peak after the crisis, nearly 50% of the banking system's loan portfolio was made up of NPLs".

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/It-was-20-years-ago-that-the-Thai-central-bank-panicked

 

I recall too that two-thirds of finance companies went bust, by some measures all. I was working for one at the time.

On 10/10/2020 at 1:30 PM, Airalee said:

Only a complete financial illiterate would put 3 million baht into a Thai bank when the deposit protection drops to ONE million baht next year.  

Wonder if deposits could be spread across three + banks?  I thought bonds were also included?  

Even so, 3 Million Baht is a big amount for most people to have sitting in a bank losing value due to CPI annual adjustments, negligible interest rates, etc.  Unless you are a property developer/tycoon then 3 Million Baht is spare change.  Plenty of very wealthy Chinese would do it as property market would be looking attractive for long term investors.  Multi millionaire and billionaires being targeted for this visa type.  

Not the average retiree with a condo or even a couple of condos unless you are insanely desperate.

2 hours ago, Banana7 said:

But during the Asian Financial crisis in 1997, lots of Thai banks went bust because they loaned money for real estate which resulted in thousands of NPLs.

And they learned their lesson...thus no problems in 2008/09. In addition, the 1997 crisis was a currency crash, when the artificially pegged Thai baht/US dollar exchange rate could no longer be sustained by the Bank of Thailand and foreign  currency denominated loans take out by Thai businesses and property developers couldnt be paid back. That’s not the case today. 

3 hours ago, Airalee said:

Risk tolerance refers to investing...not putting money in the bank.  I put my money in a bank because I don’t want risk.  I’m not looking for return on capital but rather return of capital.

 

“Risk tolerance is the degree of variability in investment returns that an investor is willing to withstand in their financial planning.“

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/risktolerance.asp

 

Didn't you say the depositors in WaMu with balances over FDIC limits lost their money when it went bust...now you're saying banks are risk free. Which is it?

2 hours ago, lkv said:

It's gradually falling I would say, with great success from the current administration.

 

If Kasikorn estimated 80K "retirees" in 2018, I estimate probably 160K in 2014 and as of today, 20-40K.

 

Many are gone already.

 

So now, the challenge is to thin this 20-40K further, and that will be easily achieved over the next 2 years.

 

Don't tell me you reckon any fresh retirees are coming with current scammy requirements, do you?

The most recent figures I have seen for foreign retirees in Thailand is on the order of 75-80k (2017/18). I seriously doubt the figure has halved since then. Whether any more come or not is no concern of mine but if it makes for less congestion at the immigration office, I'm all for them not coming.

10 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Didn't you say the depositors in WaMu with balances over FDIC limits lost their money when it went bust...now you're saying banks are risk free. Which is it?

Try to keep up.  Choosing to have deposits over the insured limit is one thing.  Being forced to is another.

 

You’re starting to sound like a shill.

7 minutes ago, Airalee said:

Try to keep up.  Choosing to have deposits over the insured limit is one thing.  Being forced to is another.

 

You’re starting to sound like a shill.

Nobody is being forced to do anything.

3 hours ago, aussiexpat said:

Meanwhile, I'm enjoying reality on the Covid free Gold Coast...no need to jump through any hoops

   I'll give the usual Pattaya Beach slam.  They've cut down all the trees!!! There's no shade!!!

11 minutes ago, newnative said:

   I'll give the usual Pattaya Beach slam.  They've cut down all the trees!!! There's no shade!!!

And he forgot to mention the sharks! 

57 minutes ago, newnative said:

   I'll give the usual Pattaya Beach slam.  They've cut down all the trees!!! There's no shade!!!

It's so you will rent an umbrella from those "saints".  

sell it all, find a better country to move or just stay home. I never bought anything here and will never do. this people are so greedy!!!

On 10/10/2020 at 10:22 AM, PST said:

None of the Non B's listed on the Embassy website mentions Foreign house owners, so why do they need to apply for a NON B visa to enter Thailand?

 

    Foreign house owners . In Thailand ?.

    Please , keep me informed .

   A Thai  Government link ,  would be much appreciated ..

 

 

Edited October 11, 20205 yr by elliss

5 hours ago, lkv said:

 

 

Don't tell me you reckon any fresh retirees are coming with current scammy requirements, do you?

 

    However that said . 

    We are often referred to as Stupid farlangs.

    If the cap fits , wear it ...

 

7 hours ago, newnative said:

   I'll give the usual Pattaya Beach slam.  They've cut down all the trees!!! There's no shade!!!

>>you can check out any time you like but you can never leave ( Australia ) <<

Held to ransom as usual, why should people  have to hold 3 million in a Thai bank ?

1 hour ago, hotchilli said:

Held to ransom as usual, why should people  have to hold 3 million in a Thai bank ?

perhaps they want use the money without the person'$ cob$ent 

2 hours ago, hotchilli said:

Held to ransom as usual, why should people  have to hold 3 million in a Thai bank ?

Probably to shore up the NPL's ????

 

OMG these clowns are actually setting government policy on Thailand travel.

 

it's just a continuous circle of comedy musical chairs, 

 

You can not make this stuff up or should I say stuff-ups.

 

You really would like to be a fly on the wall when these brain surgeons sit down and dream up these ongoing changing policies.

12 hours ago, elliss said:

 

    Foreign house owners . In Thailand ?.

    Please , keep me informed .

   A Thai  Government link ,  would be much appreciated ..

 

 

farangs can only OWN condos....

14 hours ago, Blumpie said:

It's so you will rent an umbrella from those "saints".  

Guess I should have made it clear that there are plenty of trees on Pattaya Beach.  As I type this I'm looking at people sitting in the shade under them--long holiday weekend and the big north Pattaya hotels are doing ok. 

8 minutes ago, newnative said:

long holiday weekend

Its a long holiday weekend again ?

 

https://www.pattayamail.com/news/pattaya-beach-vendors-bemoan-parking-but-other-factors-sending-thais-to-jomtien-328598

On 10/10/2020 at 5:04 PM, Pattaya Spotter said:

I agree they do seem to be chasing their tails...but don't think it has anything to do with race. 

I'm accepted here although I'm not Thai. 

18 minutes ago, johng said:

Its a long holiday weekend again ?

 

https://www.pattayamail.com/news/pattaya-beach-vendors-bemoan-parking-but-other-factors-sending-thais-to-jomtien-328598

You make it sound like a bad thing!  All the hard working government employees are entitled to some R and R too! 

18 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

And they learned their lesson...thus no problems in 2008/09. In addition, the 1997 crisis was a currency crash, when the artificially pegged Thai baht/US dollar exchange rate could no longer be sustained by the Bank of Thailand and foreign  currency denominated loans take out by Thai businesses and property developers couldnt be paid back. That’s not the case today. 

Big problems are coming.

 

Bank and finance company NPLs are rising because BOT's debt suspension scheme ends Oct. 22. This scheme avoided classifying true NPLs as a NPL. One bank reported loans 1-3 months behind in payment are now at 7-8 per cent, normally at 3%. This bank foresees lots more NPLs, and needs to more tier 1 capital so it is issuing USD$500 million in perpetual bonds on Oct. 14, yield 5-6%. One of the conditions on the bonds is that they cannot be repaid within 5 years. Other banks will be following this pattern. Another way banks could increase tier 1, is to issue shares, but their prices are depressed because of the NPLs, and forecast of reduced profits.

 

Estimates are as high as 40% of loans will become non-performing, which equates to about 2 trillion baht. 40% of all loans were registered in BOT's debt suspension scheme! Lots of banks and finance companies will be looking for capital/cash to stay alive. They will have to go to foreign currencies/markets to get that enormous amount of capital.

 

Edited October 12, 20205 yr by Banana7

1 hour ago, johng said:

Its a long holiday weekend again ?

 

https://www.pattayamail.com/news/pattaya-beach-vendors-bemoan-parking-but-other-factors-sending-thais-to-jomtien-328598

Tuesday, Oct. 13 is a holiday so some Thais have taken today off to make a long weekend.  I noticed lots of lights on last night at Centre Point, Holiday Inn, Mytt, Cape Dara, etc.