39 minutes ago, Banana7 said:

Big problems are coming.

 

Bank and finance company NPLs are rising because BOT's debt suspension scheme ends Oct. 22. This scheme avoided classifying true NPLs as a NPL. One bank reported loans 1-3 months behind in payment are now at 7-8 per cent, normally at 3%. This bank foresees lots more NPLs, and needs to more tier 1 capital so it is issuing USD$500 million in perpetual bonds on Oct. 14, yield 5-6%. One of the conditions on the bonds is that they cannot be repaid within 5 years. Other banks will be following this pattern. Another way banks could increase tier 1, is to issue shares, but their prices are depressed because of the NPLs, and forecast of reduced profits.

 

Estimates are as high as 40% of loans will become non-performing, which equates to about 2 trillion baht. 40% of all loans were registered in BOT's debt suspension scheme! Lots of banks and finance companies will be looking for capital/cash to stay alive. They will have to go to foreign currencies/markets to get that enormous amount of capital.

 

So what's your point? I wouldn't worry about it unless I was a shareholder in the banks and my dividend was in danger of being cut.

If I where running Thailand I personally wouldnt want anyone visiting right now, and this policy essentially prevents anyone visiting for at least 6 months, so job done of appearing open but remaining closed

26 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

So what's your point? I wouldn't worry about it unless I was a shareholder in the banks and my dividend was in danger of being cut.

Dividends have been suspended. BOT has forbidden Thai banks paying a dividend and share buybacks.

 

My points are:

1. There will be lots of borrowing in foreign currency denominated instruments by banks and finance companies, and some may not be able to obtain the necessary capital to avoid bankruptcy.

2. NPL foreclosure rate should accelerate, at least double, in the next few months. Lots of assets will be sold, depressing market prices.

3. The 3 million baht deposit scheme, mentioned in the first post, seems to be a way to enhance bank and government liquid capital, to help reduce borrowing.

1 hour ago, Banana7 said:

Big problems are coming.

 

Bank and finance company NPLs are rising because BOT's debt suspension scheme ends Oct. 22. This scheme avoided classifying true NPLs as a NPL. One bank reported loans 1-3 months behind in payment are now at 7-8 per cent, normally at 3%. This bank foresees lots more NPLs, and needs to more tier 1 capital so it is issuing USD$500 million in perpetual bonds on Oct. 14, yield 5-6%. One of the conditions on the bonds is that they cannot be repaid within 5 years. Other banks will be following this pattern. Another way banks could increase tier 1, is to issue shares, but their prices are depressed because of the NPLs, and forecast of reduced profits.

 

Estimates are as high as 40% of loans will become non-performing, which equates to about 2 trillion baht. 40% of all loans were registered in BOT's debt suspension scheme! Lots of banks and finance companies will be looking for capital/cash to stay alive. They will have to go to foreign currencies/markets to get that enormous amount of capital.

 

It is actually 20% of the 40%, which will add up to 2 trillion baht when including the current level of NPL.

 

"Further, an estimation previously pointed out that 20 per cent of registered debt would become NPL in the future. This will increase the total NPL from Bt500 billion to Bt2 trillion, which will be like the total NPL in 1997."

5 hours ago, A512 said:

perhaps they want use the money without the person'$ cob$ent 

In a sense they do, it's invested by the bank to make money while giving the depositor almost zero.

3 million baht that the person cannot use.

46 minutes ago, Banana7 said:

Dividends have been suspended. BOT has forbidden Thai banks paying a dividend and share buybacks.

 

My points are:

1. There will be lots of borrowing in foreign currency denominated instruments by banks and finance companies, and some may not be able to obtain the necessary capital to avoid bankruptcy.

2. NPL foreclosure rate should accelerate, at least double, in the next few months. Lots of assets will be sold, depressing market prices.

3. The 3 million baht deposit scheme, mentioned in the first post, seems to be a way to enhance bank and government liquid capital, to help reduce borrowing.

1. The Bank of Thailand will provide whatever baht liquidity banks require to shore up their capital if necessary. (Thailand has its own currency so can easily do this.) As I have also explained, even when banks go "bankrupt," it's the shareholders, not depositors, who bear the loss. The banking authorities merge weak banks into stronger ones and depositors notice no change. 

 

2. Good...there will be lots of cheap businesses, houses, and condos for those with capital to invest.

 

3. I doubt the deposits of a few hundred (thousand) property owners who take advantage of this scheme will enhance Thai bank or government capital levels. (Certainly not the government’s because (1) its not going to them and (2) they can just print more baht if they need it.) And anyone who thinks this is the purpose of the 3M requirement is a bit daft in my opinion.

4 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

As I have also explained, even when banks go "bankrupt," it's the shareholders, not depositors, who bear the loss

The banks are only good for 1 million Baht.......aren't they?

 

Deposits are not fully covered....no bank would do that.

5 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

The banks are only good for 1 million Baht.......aren't they?

 

Deposits are not fully covered....no bank would do that.

I don't know the current Thai bank deposit insurance amounts...but whatever they are, I'm way over it and don't loose any sleep. And yes, I know of no banking system where any deposit amount is fully insured.

On 10/10/2020 at 10:30 AM, Airalee said:

Only a complete financial illiterate would put 3 million baht into a Thai bank when the deposit protection drops to ONE million baht next year.  

i am sure i have read somewher on the Bangkok Bank website that foreigners get NO deposit protection

correct me if i am wrong,i will try to dig it out.

5 minutes ago, Hindy said:

i am sure i have read somewher on the Bangkok Bank website that foreigners get NO deposit protection

correct me if i am wrong,i will try to dig it out.

From what I can find....

 

“For protection, deposits need to be in Thai baht (foreign currency accounts are not covered), held in an account in Thailand, and reportedly also deposits in baht by depositors residing outside Thailand are excluded.“
 

https://www.thaiwebsites.com/deposits-insurance.asp
 

Nothing I can find says foreigners are excluded.  I believe you may have been thinking about “foreign currency accounts”.  If you find something to the contrary, please post it here with a link.  Thanks.

9 minutes ago, Hindy said:

i am sure i have read somewher on the Bangkok Bank website that foreigners get NO deposit protection

correct me if i am wrong,i will try to dig it out.

From Bangkok Banks website...

 

 

When do you think the prices of houses and condos will start going down and how far? How much did prices go down in 97 and how long did they stay down?

2 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

I don't know the current Thai bank deposit insurance amounts...but whatever they are, I'm way over it and don't loose any sleep. And yes, I know of no banking system where any deposit amount is fully insured.

Current limit is 5Million THB across all accounts with a single bank, it was supposed to drop to 1Million last August but this was pushed back to August 2021. 

 

 

58 minutes ago, Mike Teavee said:

Current limit is 5Million THB across all accounts with a single bank, it was supposed to drop to 1Million last August but this was pushed back to August 2021. 

 

 

I've got to do some account spreading ????????????

Edited October 12, 20205 yr by Pattaya Spotter

3 hours ago, Airalee said:

From what I can find....

 

“For protection, deposits need to be in Thai baht (foreign currency accounts are not covered), held in an account in Thailand, and reportedly also deposits in baht by depositors residing outside Thailand are excluded.“
 

https://www.thaiwebsites.com/deposits-insurance.asp
 

Nothing I can find says foreigners are excluded.  I believe you may have been thinking about “foreign currency accounts”.  If you find something to the contrary, please post it here with a link.  Thanks.

yes you are right ,it is my foreign currency account i am not protected for

Thank GOD we did not buy property in Thailand, this country is NOT what we thought it was!!!   Vietnam, here we come, (as soon as they open anyway lol)

On 10/10/2020 at 6:51 AM, Oldie said:

You need to be rich AND clever to be able to travel to Thailand...

If you are rich and clever, surely you would put your time and money into more welcoming countries??

I have spent the past 45 minutes skim reading the 32 pages of submissions. It is apparent that many of us (myself included) are grieving about the abrupt and unpleasant change in circumstances as regards travel to Thailand etc. This made me think of the Kubler Ross model of grieving (you can google it) - the 5 stages starting with denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. Different people on this thread are at different stages - evidently there is quite a lot of anger and bargaining. One of the essential qualities of being human is compassion for fellow humans who are suffering, and at its best, TV can be a real pillar of support. A lot of people come here for help, even if sometimes that plea is disguised as anger etc. I have found reading the submissions helpful in coming to terms with my own situation.

 

I suspect there are some important truths here in the various submissions. Thai Government is not as deranged or aggressively racist as some people think; in a crisis you look after "your own". However it is clear that farang travel is a low priority so we should not expect that to get sorted anytime soon imo. There is a real issue as regards the possibility of a severe prolonged recession continuing into 2021 and beyond, and the way that plays out is quite uncertain.

 

My own view is that the economic situation would have to get considerably worse (and thats not inevitable) before the Government is forced to pivot towards a mass farang reopening - currently the pain is manageable and majority opinion supports staying closed. 

 

I have been through the first 4 stages. I think I am approaching stage 5, acceptance. I do not expect to be able to return, on a sensible basis, to my holiday home until this time next year, 1 year away, at the earliest. I have stopped trying to rationalise the Thai Government decision making. I have stopped trying to look for rays of hope from each new compromised "re-opening" initiative. Essentially, I have stopped worrying about this, accepted it and am trying to focus on other destinations that are open. 

 

Everyone's circumstances are different and my approach may not work for many. One of the good things about social media, and TV, is that it allows all of us to share our grieving experiences, and learn from others. Thank you all. 

24 minutes ago, perry21 said:

Thai Government is not as deranged or aggressively racist as some people think; in a crisis you look after "your own". However it is clear that farang travel is a low priority so we should not expect that to get sorted anytime soon imo.

I do like your post, nicely written.

 

But I will disagree with this part.

 

The writing has been on the wall with this administration since 2014.

 

Should I remind you about tracking sim cards for foreigners ideas? Or wristbands more recently. To keep the nation safe of covid?

 

Or how foreigners were given a form at Immigration to detail the bars they go to, the malls they visit and so on, a few years ago?

 

Should I remind you of the TM30 video, in which the foreigner was the bomber that will blow up your residence, and Thais were advised to "be safe" and report the foreigner?

 

What does half a million baht have to do with tourism, for 6 months in an account?

 

And you think they are not being racists and xenophobic?

 

In Europe, Anutin would have been sacked, and other members of the government would start apologising on his behalf.

 

Did you see that happening in Thailand?

 

So yeah, nice post, but I feel it missed the big picture.

So...people with property already and living in Thailand are they required to have 3mil in the bank now and 500k sitting in a bank account not to be used??

 

 

6 minutes ago, Teee said:

So...people with property already and living in Thailand are they required to have 3mil in the bank now and 500k sitting in a bank account not to be used??

 

 

If their visas or permissions of stay are about to run out, then yes - some people renewed or went the agent way, but buddha forbid you exit the country - there are them requirements to get back

On 10/9/2020 at 11:34 PM, Brunolem said:

First they destroy their tourism industry by creating, then suspending for no clear reason, a new 9 month tourist visa.

 

(Note that the Chinese who were ready to embark on the first flight to Thailand, cancelled at the last minute, may not be reimbursed for their fully prepaid voyage).

 

Now they are up to destroying their real estate industry by telling foreign buyers that their investments in Thailand's condos don't matter...what really matter is the cash they deposit in Thai banks.

 

What's next?

there is a newer story in which Thai immigration admits that no Chinese actually applied for a STV, all that had were "inquiries".   

 

No doubt all ambassadors were consulted   for what that would be worth

Post #469 by perry21: EXCELLENT POST!

20 hours ago, sdweller said:

Thank GOD we did not buy property in Thailand, this country is NOT what we thought it was!!!   Vietnam, here we come, (as soon as they open anyway lol)

And neither is Vietnam ???????? 

On 10/10/2020 at 3:35 PM, AlfHuy said:

I will send you a PM with my private bank account details.

And prove that I am an idiot.

On 10/13/2020 at 5:45 AM, jabis said:

If their visas or permissions of stay are about to run out, then yes - some people renewed or went the agent way, but buddha forbid you exit the country - there are them requirements to get back

Source?

On 10/13/2020 at 2:19 AM, lkv said:

I do like your post, nicely written.

 

But I will disagree with this part.

 

The writing has been on the wall with this administration since 2014.

 

Should I remind you about tracking sim cards for foreigners ideas? Or wristbands more recently. To keep the nation safe of covid?

 

Or how foreigners were given a form at Immigration to detail the bars they go to, the malls they visit and so on, a few years ago?

 

Should I remind you of the TM30 video, in which the foreigner was the bomber that will blow up your residence, and Thais were advised to "be safe" and report the foreigner?

 

What does half a million baht have to do with tourism, for 6 months in an account?

 

And you think they are not being racists and xenophobic?

 

In Europe, Anutin would have been sacked, and other members of the government would start apologising on his behalf.

 

Did you see that happening in Thailand?

 

So yeah, nice post, but I feel it missed the big picture.

None of this except the obligation to show my passport when buying a new sim card (like I would have to do in Europe, too) ever happened to me. 

And it's my life that counts. 

4 minutes ago, micmichd said:

None of this except the obligation to show my passport when buying a new sim card (like I would have to do in Europe, too) ever happened to me. 

And it's my life that counts. 

I have never bought a sim in Thailand. My wife buys them for me........in her name. Officially I own nothing and subscribe to nothing in Thailand.

3 minutes ago, polpott said:

I have never bought a sim in Thailand. My wife buys them for me........in her name. Officially I own nothing and subscribe to nothing in Thailand.

Good idea. My wife would do the same if I'd ask her to.