Thailand Seeks Travel Bubble Pact With China to Spur Tourism

[Sheryl]

47 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

The WHO estimates the IFR for covid is 0.14% so it's not much of a problem, well not more than the flu anyway.Don't bubbles have a tendency to burst?Perhaps they should call it a "travel corridor" or something.

 

The WHO has NOT estimated this.

 

An article published in the WHO newsletter (not the same thing as a n official WHO pronouncement) which reviewed data from various studies found wide variation in IFR across locations and an average IFR of about 0.23% in those specific locations and made no claims as to an overall worldwide figure.

 

A study recently published in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases concludes:

 

• Published estimates vary, with a ‘true’ fatality rate hard to calculate.
• •Systematically reviewing the literature and meta-analyzing the results shows an IFR of 0.68% (0.53-0.82%).
• •This rate was variable from place to place, with a lower range of 0.17% and a highest estimate of 1.7%.
• •Serology studies with a lower risk of bias appeared to demonstrate a higher IFR than those at a higher risk of bias."
• https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)32180-9/fulltext

[Pattaya Spotter]

3 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

The WHO has NOT estimated this.

 

An article published in the WHO newsletter (not the same thing as a n official WHO pronouncement) which reviewed data from various studies found wide variation in IFR across locations and an average IFR of about 0.23% in those specific locations and made no claims as to an overall worldwide figure.

 

A study recently published in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases concludes:

 

• Published estimates vary, with a ‘true’ fatality rate hard to calculate.
• •Systematically reviewing the literature and meta-analyzing the results shows an IFR of 0.68% (0.53-0.82%).
• •This rate was variable from place to place, with a lower range of 0.17% and a highest estimate of 1.7%.
• •Serology studies with a lower risk of bias appeared to demonstrate a higher IFR than those at a higher risk of bias."
• https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)32180-9/fulltext

Why the range...underlying age profile and pre-existing disease profile of different countries and quality and availability of healthcare?

[spoon1967]

Well that sorts out the Travel guides with Chinese connections, the all you can eat buffets, the duty free shops, a few shopping malls and some boat excursion companies.

 

No help to 99% of the bars, restaurants etc of Pattaya and other farang reliant businesses and locations.

 

[ianezy0]

3 hours ago, Spock said:

I am surprised Australia does not get a mention. New Zealand has just opened a one way travel bubble with Australia, and the government also seems to be loosening reasons for travel exemption - they are apparently entertaining applications from people who will leave the country longer than three months. These two countries would provide a very safe tourist source for Thailand.

Why, too few tourist numbers from both Countries.

More Chinese tourist used to visit Thailand than the total population of both OZ and NZ......chicken feed ???? 

[DUNROAMIN]

5 hours ago, Grumpy John said:

"Thailand is in talks with China to establish a quarantine-free travel corridor by January to rescue its ailing tourism industry"  

 

This maybe a risky move!  I have been following a Vlogger called serpentza on Youtube for a few years who lived in China for 13 years and has a lot of contacts there and he is saying the Wuhan China virus is still a huge problem in China.  The CCP are not telling the truth about it!

When has the CCP told the truth about anything.

[Sheryl]

1 minute ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Why the range...underlying age profile and pre-existing disease profile of different countries and quality and availability of healthcare?

The range in parentheses is the Confidence Interval of the estimate, which is just that -- an estimate.

 

The range by location would obviously reflect many things, of which the age distribution of the infected population and the quality and accessibility of health services would be the most important.

 

It should be noted that there is no reliable data available for India which accounts for a very high number of infections. Even in normal times, only about one fourth of states even report cause of death to the central government. Even overall death numbers (not by cause) are not reliable.

 

Should also note that IFR is looking only at deaths due to COVID and not including deaths from other causes due to the overall effects of the pandemic on health services, which in many countries is substantial. Indeed, in some places where the health system badly collapsed there were likely more deaths due to that than to COVID per se.

[cjinchiangrai]

5 hours ago, Grumpy John said:

"Thailand is in talks with China to establish a quarantine-free travel corridor by January to rescue its ailing tourism industry"  

 

This maybe a risky move!  I have been following a Vlogger called serpentza on Youtube for a few years who lived in China for 13 years and has a lot of contacts there and he is saying the Wuhan China virus is still a huge problem in China.  The CCP are not telling the truth about it!

Nope, There is no covid. Everything is open again.

[Grumpy John]

1 hour ago, steven100 said:

agree .... provided they are carrying no virus then that's the objective here.

Maybe I didn't Make myself clear.  Will the test provide a 100% accuracy in determining whether the people being tested are Positive or Negative in regard to the Wuhan China virus so those carrying the virus can be isolated.

[Pattaya Spotter]

The Chinese need a break from their labours...have money to spend...a Thai holiday may be just the ticket  ???? (or millions).

 

With Covid-19 Under Control, China’s Economy Surges Ahead https://nyti.ms/2T8bkMG

[DUNROAMIN]

Get ready for the second wave of Covid.

[Jeffr2]

3 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

The Chinese need a break from their labours...have money to spend...a Thai holiday may be just the ticket  ???? (or millions).

 

With Covid-19 Under Control, China’s Economy Surges Ahead https://nyti.ms/2T8bkMG

I read that.  Get the virus under control and life can get back to "normal".  Sadly, politicians are running this rather than scientists and health care experts.

 

From that article:

The Chinese economy surged 4.9 percent in the July-to-September quarter compared with the same months last year, the country’s National Bureau of Statistics announced on Monday. The robust performance brings China almost back up to the roughly 6 percent pace of growth that it was reporting before the pandemic.

[cjinchiangrai]

4 minutes ago, Grumpy John said:

Maybe I didn't Make myself clear.  Will the test provide a 100% accuracy in determining whether the people being tested are Positive or Negative in regard to the Wuhan China virus so those carrying the virus can be isolated.

Of course not, that is why they want multiple tests and quarantine. There is a lag time of several days between infection and positive tests but patients can still spread the virus. The short visitor program is more like mobile isolation but they are only looking at low risk countries for that.

[Dialemco]

Presently China has 14 day quarantine requirement for all arrivals provided you have negative tests before and upon arrival so good luck with any travel bubble requests. Best accept have to wait until next year before any foreign tourists arrivals from China or anywhere else.

[Pattaya Spotter]

17 minutes ago, cjinchiangrai said:

Nope, There is no covid. Everything is open again.

You're wrong...he gets his Covid information from the China hating YouTube duo of Winston Sterzel (Serpentza) and his sidekick LaoWhy 86, two failed former English teachers in China.

Edited October 19, 2020 by Pattaya Spotter

[Pattaya Spotter]

8 minutes ago, DUNROAMIN said:

Get ready for the second wave of Covid.

Thailand never had a first wave...more like a ripple.

[tomauasia]

56 minutes ago, lazj58 said:

 

 

Prayut gov beg to China 

[connda]

6 hours ago, ezzra said:

So when all other cockamamie ideas ran aground they finally came up with the bubble solution, let's see how this will fare...

 

Someone with an ounce of sense finally figured out that a handful of "well-heeled" uber-wealthy jet-setters aren't going to do diddly for the economy and what is needed are bus-loads of zero-baht tourist comprised of middle-class commoners who collectively have average amounts of disposable income that when combined equals ฿฿฿Cha-Ching฿฿฿.  In the tourism game quantity will outperform quality any day of the week.  So some Somchai who's taken a economics class or two finally figures out the obvious. 
Now - to see if they implement it over the screams of protest from the virus-adverse average Thais?   Silly governments create a breast they can't put down.  <laughs>

[Pattaya Spotter]

4 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

I read that.  Get the virus under control and life can get back to "normal".  Sadly, politicians are running this rather than scientists and health care experts.

 

From that article:

The Chinese economy surged 4.9 percent in the July-to-September quarter compared with the same months last year, the country’s National Bureau of Statistics announced on Monday. The robust performance brings China almost back up to the roughly 6 percent pace of growth that it was reporting before the pandemic.

Record imports and exports for September too...easy to see why all the "China envy" posts from so many Westerners here.

[tomauasia]

55 minutes ago, Traubert said:

Fanciful to say the least and completely without proof.

No true and correct. You know nothing about the intense mind manipulation of the CCP. 

[Marco100]

4 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Makes sense...virus levels are at undetectable levels in both countries. Well done Asia.

???????????????????? LOL pin pointed .

[Jeffr2]

6 minutes ago, Dialemco said:

Presently China has 14 day quarantine requirement for all arrivals provided you have negative tests before and upon arrival so good luck with any travel bubble requests. Best accept have to wait until next year before any foreign tourists arrivals from China or anywhere else.

China is locked down.  You can't go there unless approved, have a work visa, etc.  No tourists allowed.

[Cake Monster]

3 hours ago, Spock said:

I am surprised Australia does not get a mention. New Zealand has just opened a one way travel bubble with Australia, and the government also seems to be loosening reasons for travel exemption - they are apparently entertaining applications from people who will leave the country longer than three months. These two countries would provide a very safe tourist source for Thailand.

IMHO, Thailand will be playing Russian Roulette with Chinese Tourists.

We all know how economical the CCP is with the truth, and there are for sure  more outbreaks of Covid in China than the rest of the World knows about.

There are also outbreaks of H1N1, and Bubonic Plague, which have been widely reported recently.

Also memories seem extremely short in this part of the World

It was in late December of 2019 - Just One year ago, that China informed the WHO of the Virus outbreak. And for sure the Virus was rampant in China well before that date.

With the onset of Colder Weather in both China and Thailand, it seems the perfect storm for the Virus to become more contagious.

At the very least, this is extremely poor timing for this " Bubble " to begin, and a " Bubble " should have been made many Months ago.

Not with China, but with Nations that are open and Honest over reporting their cases of Covid. That way Thailand knows what to expect, and would not be surprised by any sudden spike.

If 10,000 people from Europe, America and other Nations such as Australia were allowed in to start with, this would be a manageable number ( or should be ) if there were problems, as well as a decent injection of Money into the Economy.

If there were no problems, slowly increase the numbers, and then, maybe include China

Just saying

[ThailandRyan]

15 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Record imports and exports for September too...easy to see why all the "China envy" posts from so many Westerners here.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-decline-after-china-economic-data-disappoints-2020-10-19

Better do some more reading

 

The Chinese data showed growth in goods and services is softening while the data on crude processing and industrial metals output, given a lifeline from fiscal stimulus, were "disappointing", said Howie Lee, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC).

Edited October 19, 2020 by ThailandRyan

[Jeffr2]

Just now, ThailandRyan said:

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-decline-after-china-economic-data-disappoints-2020-10-19

Better do some more reading

That article doesn't contradict what was previously posted.  4.9% growth.  Perhaps not what was expected, but still, not bad.

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, Jeffr2 said:

Stop saying CV19 is like the flu.  It's NOT!  Stop trolling.

If you have flu like symptoms please get tested for Covid.This is what most governments and health advices recommend.

[Pattaya Spotter]

2 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

That article doesn't contradict what was previously posted.  4.9% growth.  Perhaps not what was expected, but still, not bad.

The China bashers will grasp at any straws they find...maybe they think posting negative China stories on T-V will help their battered western currencies ????????????

Edited October 19, 2020 by Pattaya Spotter

[Jeffr2]

1 minute ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

The China bathers will grasp at any straws they find...maybe they think posting negative China stories on T-V will help their battered western currencies ????????????

No doubt China is to blame for this.  But politicians are trying to deflect their mistakes by trying to deflect blame to China.  Ala Trump.  We're in a global pandemic.  Life's going to be changed forever, just like after 9/11.

[Pattaya Spotter]

5 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-decline-after-china-economic-data-disappoints-2020-10-19

Better do some more reading

 

I'll stick by my news diet...

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/13/china-says-exports-and-imports-rose-in-the-third-quarter-in-yuan-terms.html

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-trade-idUSKBN25Y08Z

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

That article doesn't contradict what was previously posted.  4.9% growth.  Perhaps not what was expected, but still, not bad.

It is not all roses, looking at a projected downturn as exports could peak soon as the demand for Chinese-made protective gear recedes and the base effect of this year’s massive declines wears off.  Additionally, The worst risk is the ticking time bomb within the nation's financial system. Banks are state-funded and owned. This means the government sets interest rates and approves loans. They pay low-interest rates on deposits so they can lend cheaply to state-owned businesses. As a result, banks have channeled government funds into an unknown number of projects that may not be profitable.

 

https://www.thebalance.com/china-s-economic-growth-cause-pros-cons-future-3305478

 

Not bad, but a narrow growth band and the future is not looking completely up.

[Jeffr2]

Just now, ThailandRyan said:

It is not all roses, looking at a projected downturn as exports could peak soon as the demand for Chinese-made protective gear recedes and the base effect of this year’s massive declines wears off.  Additionally, The worst risk is the ticking time bomb within the nation's financial system. Banks are state-funded and owned. This means the government sets interest rates and approves loans. They pay low-interest rates on deposits so they can lend cheaply to state-owned businesses. As a result, banks have channeled government funds into an unknown number of projects that may not be profitable.

 

https://www.thebalance.com/china-s-economic-growth-cause-pros-cons-future-3305478

 

Not bad, but a narrow growth band and the future is not looking completely up.

There's no clarity on the future right now.  Nobody can predict what's going to happen, other than in the short term, it's not going to get better in the Western countries.

 

Lots of risk looking down the road unless politicians get it together.  With respect to their banking system, they've got lots of levers to pull.  Ones not available to governments in the West.  One of the benefits of being communist!  As you know, we've been hearing about a financial bubble for a very long time.  No blood bath so far.  So far....but who knows. 

 

Got a crystal Ball? ????