Bangkok Under Water

[soundman]

Bangkok gets that sinking feeling

BangkokPost.com from Reuters reports Thailand's best known disaster prognosticator said on Wednesday global warming will put Bangkok a metre under water in less than 20 years, adding: "You will need a motorboat instead of a car."

Smith Dharmasaroja, head of Thailand's National Disaster Warning Centre, told the Reuters news agency that rising seas and natural sinking will put Bangkok under water by 2025 - unless work starts now on a huge dyke to protect the capital.

"If nothing is done, Bangkok will be at least 50 centimetres to one metre under water," Reuters quoted Mr Smith as saying during an interview in Bangkok.

Mr Smith gained notoriety 12 years ago when he predicted Thailand was in danger of being hit by a tsunami. Largely dismissed as a crackpot and retired from government service with the Meteorological Department, he was brought back as a disaster expert after the 2004 tsunami, which killed more than 5,000 people in Thailand alone.

The problem, he says, is two-fold.

The city is subsiding at a rate of 10cm per year, partly due to excessive pumping of underground water.

Global warming is causing seas to rise and there is evidence of severe coastal erosion just downstream from Bangkok.

To avert disaster, Smith said, the city needed to construct a massive dyke to protect it from rising seas and increasingly violent storms.

"The system has to be started right now. Otherwise it will be too late to protect our capital city," he said.

Mr Smith, as usual, was scathing when asked about how authorities are facing the threat.

"The government does not pay any attention at all."

Soundman.:

So we have one thread which says the water level won't rise at all because Thailand is too far away from the melting ice caps.

And this one predicting Bkk under 1m of water in 15 years time.

What do you think?

Soundman.

[kmart]

He wouldn't be at the forefront of of a consortium of "huge dyke" constructors, would he?

[dumspero]

I don't buy it. Possible, yes. Likely, no.

A global disaster on a scale like that much of a rise in sea level is always possible. In any given period of time, such as the blink in time that is 20 years, such a disaster is extremely improbable.

The planet is widely believed to be billions of years old, and yet major, major changes happen very rarely, i.e. thousands of years or more apart. What are the chances that we're living in such a time, that mankind's impact on the planet is just now reaching its tipping point?

A few decades ago it was global nuclear war or a coming ice age. Now it's warming. In ten years it will be something else. (With that said, I agree we should still take steps now to reduce our pollution of the planet, but that's a different topic.)

[brahmburgers]

I've said the same in letters to BKK Post and Nation for some time now. A dyke might have to built all around the city, not just the side that faces the sea. Then there's the Chao Praya river. ...perhaps do a major engineering feat as was done on the Thames - downriver from London.

Bye bye SUV airport also. The alternative would be to cut bait and relocate to build a few other cities on higher ground. Currently 98% of government and businesses HQ's are in Bangkok - the result of a 'herd mentality' as much as anything else.

The most culturally significant and impressive monuments could be relocated somewhat like they did to make way for the reservoir at Aswan dam in Egypt.

If there are any turtles left in the clogged polluted canals of BKK, they'll surely be happy, though.

[lannarebirth]

I'd guess his predictions are not far off the mark. My prediction is that when it comes to pass he will be sought out for winning lottery numbers, soothsaying, and that idols of his likeness will be incorporated into Thai Buddhist ritual.

[Jimjim]

After seeing New Orleans, it's certainly possible, especially with a big storm. This will be a gradual change, however, and things could change. What are the chances? This whole subject just needs more study.

[jeebusjones]

I think this is very, very possible. I live near the Chao Praya, and nearly everyday the river overflows its banks a little and pours onto the streets.

[soundman]

The "Venice" of SE asia?

The point made about pumping all the ground water out of Bkk area seems to have some credibility when you compare the gound subsistence in Holland for example.

Cheers,

Soundman.

[Soju]

I don't buy it. Possible, yes. Likely, no.

A global disaster on a scale like that much of a rise in sea level is always possible. In any given period of time, such as the blink in time that is 20 years, such a disaster is extremely improbable.

The planet is widely believed to be billions of years old, and yet major, major changes happen very rarely, i.e. thousands of years or more apart. What are the chances that we're living in such a time, that mankind's impact on the planet is just now reaching its tipping point?

A few decades ago it was global nuclear war or a coming ice age. Now it's warming. In ten years it will be something else. (With that said, I agree we should still take steps now to reduce our pollution of the planet, but that's a different topic.)

The key is that it's the combination of rising seas and the sinking of the ground that makes this feasible, with probably the sinking being the most significant of the two factors. Venice has seen significant sinking in modern times and has had a dramatic effect there, so why not in Bangkok also?

[astral]

Bangkok has been underwater many times since 1980.

I remember the floods in 1985 with Silom road under 30cm of water.

Nothing new here.

[torito]

Gulf of Thailand won't rise with global warming, expert claims

Apr 23, 2007, 3:03 GMT

Bangkok - Global warming is not likely to cause the sea level in the Gulf of Thailand to rise because the body of water is too far from melting glaciers, a leading Thai hydrologist claimed on Monday.

Recent forecasts by the United Nations' Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which predict a 40 centimetre rise in sea levels by the end of the century will cause flooding for up to 94 million Asians living in coastal areas, may not apply to the Gulf of Thailand, according to Suphat Vongvisessomjai, a former professor in water resources engineering at Bangkok's Asia Institute of Technology.

'The climate change panel's projection was wrongly accepted to apply to the Gulf of Thailand,' Suphat told The Nation newspaper. 'We are too far from melting glaciers or ice sheets.'

Suphat added that, in fact, recent research shows that the average sea levels along some coastal provinces on the gulf have declined 0.3 to 0.6 centrimetres over the past eight years.

The hydrologist, now an employee of Team Consulting Engineering, called on the public not to panic over the IPCC findings.

'The climate change panel did not deceive us or exaggerate. Its scientific findings are just based on the environment of their scientists, most of whom live in Europe,' he told the English-language daily.

Asia-Pacific news

LaoPo

Everything is speculation....

Edited May 4, 2007 by torito

[astral]

A few decades ago it was global nuclear war or a coming ice age. Now it's warming. In ten years it will be something else. (With that said, I agree we should still take steps now to reduce our pollution of the planet, but that's a different topic.)

You hit the nail on the head here.

Governments need to control people and there is no better motivator than FEAR.

Until 1990 it was the Red Menace of Russia, but that went away when then Berlin Wall came down.

They needed something new for us to fear:

Global warming

Paedophiles

Terrorism etc

Just look at the way GW Bush jumped on the terrorism band wagon after 9-11.

A whole new government dept of Homeland Security - jobs for the boys.

I am not saying these areas do not need attention, but I do believe that they are being

blown up out of all proportion to reality.

[mrt273nva]

A few decades ago it was global nuclear war or a coming ice age. Now it's warming. In ten years it will be something else. (With that said, I agree we should still take steps now to reduce our pollution of the planet, but that's a different topic.)

not to stray off topic, but global warming will cause an ice age. warming will cause glaciers to melt making the oceans rise, changing the currents. england is at a very high latitude but remains fairly warm due to warm water currents in the pacific. when glacier water is added those currents will change creating a reallocation of temperature around the world. so global warming and ice age go hand-in-hand. the world will get hotter before it becomes drastically cold.

[GuestHouse]

This is a bit like the warnings on the consequences of a Tsunami that the Thai government chose to ignore...

Tsunami, Flooding, Earthquage, Terrorist attack... nah it won't happen.

Well unfortunately these things do happen and while a measured amount of skepticism is a good thing, don't mistake it for clear thought.

The issue is Bangkok is at risk from flooding. Global warming and land sinking increases the chances and severity of flooding.

Once that is understood we, or at least the Thai government, needs to understand the consequences of large scale flooding in Bangkok.

As has been mentioned above, goverment and commerce is concentrated in Bangkok - How will that be impacted in a flood? (or frequent floods).

Other countries will face these same or very similar challenges. Some will do something practical about it, some will not.

... Long term planning .... Thailand..... erm....

My advice is move to the hills.

[uptou]

The "Venice" of SE asia?

imagine the smell,if it does happen. not to mention possible diseases.

as much as like being in thailand i'm not sure its a trait of theirs,to worry about something like this happening in the near or distant future.i think the people are thinking more of survival on a day to day basis,without the luxury of welfare,or national health.

[peter991]

I don't think it would take much to cause flooding in Bangkok. Every time there is a decent amount of rain the BMA is trying to figure out HOW to move the water out to sea.

Peter

[chownah]

Motorcycle taxis on jet skis....sanoooook deeeeee!!!!!