US has reported its highest one-day Covid-19 death tally: Over 2,800--CNN

[teacherclaire]

Congratulations! Special thanks to him. 

[teacherclaire]

The Virus Task Force in the White House Explained.

(71) Trump: Coronavirus is Democrats' 'new hoax' - YouTube

  

[gunderhill]

7 hours ago, Natai Beach said:

The Thais are smart, they listened to medical/scientific advice and realized that covid is a virus. To stop the spread of a contagious virus it is very simple, you socially isolate as much as possible, you wear masks when that is impractical. The Thais controlled covid in under two months.

 

Farangs harped on about wearing masks, socially isolating, tracing etc because they have “rights”. Karen’s etc. They carried on like babies when asked to wear a mask, etc. They protested which actually took more effort than simply putting on a mask. They spread conspiracy theories, it was Bill Gates, 5G, a government plot, the Freemasons, the Illuminati etc etc 

They listened to politicians concerned only with getting re-elected. 

 

Covid 19 does not care about human rights. Covid 19 is not human. 
 

unfortunately now the farangs are spreading covid. The top 30 countries are 90% of infections and most of them are farang.
South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan etc etc covid is a minor problem health wise.  

 

But the farangs with 90% of the  daily infections are ruining the entire world economy. The sensible countries who reacted responsibly are now paying a massive price, waiting it out for the USA, UK, the South American counties and Europe to get their act together. 
 

it is a long and frustrating wait. 
 

So smart that they  kept the Chinese  coming in for  months,  still can't  secure their borders with obviously thousands  crossing  daily from Myanmar and  have been  since this fiasco started and failed to invent a  vaccine that those stupid westerners have done.

[Natai Beach]

16 minutes ago, gunderhill said:

So smart that they  kept the Chinese  coming in for  months,  still can't  secure their borders with obviously thousands  crossing  daily from Myanmar and  have been  since this fiasco started and failed to invent a  vaccine that those stupid westerners have done.

Numbers speak for themselves, 60 deaths versus over a million and getting worse, not better. 

 

more westerners will die this hour than the total for Thailand over the last 11 months. And the next hour, and the hour after that, today, tomorrow, next week, next month, next year. Thailand hasn’t had a single death for months.
 

Work on the Thai vaccine is going well, human trials started. Doesn’t contain any bleach.

[NorthernRyland]

33 minutes ago, gunderhill said:

So smart that they  kept the Chinese  coming in for  months,  still can't  secure their borders with obviously thousands  crossing  daily from Myanmar and  have been  since this fiasco started and failed to invent a  vaccine that those stupid westerners have done.

My question for Thailand is, what changed between then and now? The border was always wide open and COVID was present. I don't believe for second Thailand somehow escaped the pandemic. What I think is more likely is that the Thai medical system was not able to test and record deaths associated with COVID, or they are hiding them from the public.

[placeholder]

44 minutes ago, NorthernRyland said:

My question for Thailand is, what changed between then and now? The border was always wide open and COVID was present. I don't believe for second Thailand somehow escaped the pandemic. What I think is more likely is that the Thai medical system was not able to test and record deaths associated with COVID, or they are hiding them from the public.

You think hospitals wouldn't be overflowing by now if your suspicions were correct? 

[NorthernRyland]

50 minutes ago, placeholder said:

You think hospitals wouldn't be overflowing by now if your suspicions were correct? 

All of Asia had low numbers. I think they're less vulnerable than Europeans.

 

Thailands hospitals are crowded and chaotic. There's no knowing what they may have been missing or not reporting (when does Thailands government organizations ever communicate together?)

 

Look at the numbers in the US https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-19-hospitalizations-us/. These are not huge numbers. They could go unnoticed in Thailands public hospital system.

[mtls2005]

2,918 on Thu (or maybe Wed?).

 

And most public health experts say it will get much, much, much worse.

 

I think that when fairly common health issues, unrelated to COVID, and which are treatable, start to result in premature deaths impacting thousands of families, people will finally put politics aside, pitch in and work to save the community.

 

 

[gunderhill]

2 hours ago, Natai Beach said:

Numbers speak for themselves

I would not trust a single  number coming out  of Thailand to do with anything.

[gunderhill]

2 hours ago, Natai Beach said:

Numbers speak for themselves, 60 deaths versus over a million and getting worse, not better. 

 

more westerners will die this hour than the total for Thailand over the last 11 months. And the next hour, and the hour after that, today, tomorrow, next week, next month, next year. Thailand hasn’t had a single death for months.
 

Work on the Thai vaccine is going well, human trials started. Doesn’t contain any bleach.

Do you want to add roadkill also into your figures? you know those official 14000 deaths  unofficial double  that +, can't  trust anything here.

[Natai Beach]

2 minutes ago, gunderhill said:

Do you want to add roadkill also into your figures? you know those official 14000 deaths  unofficial double  that +, can't  trust anything here.

Nice whataboutism. The discrepancy in the road kill figures is because they only include die at the scene, not because of a cover up. 
 

14,000 deaths all year. Or 28,000 if you include died after leaving the scene. 
A lot right, 28,000. 
More died of Covid in the last three days. 
Perspective. 
 

And it is getting worse, not better. 

[gunderhill]

8 minutes ago, Natai Beach said:

Nice whataboutism. The discrepancy in the road kill figures is because they only include die at the scene, not because of a cover up. 
 

14,000 deaths all year. Or 28,000 if you include died after leaving the scene. 
A lot right, 28,000. 
More died of Covid in the last three days. 
Perspective. 
 

And it is getting worse, not better. 

its about trusting the numbers, and I don't, it's  not  about the amount do you really think the border  hoppers of the last 6  months between Myanmar and Thailand have not brought in hundreds if  not way more  cases? And  only  now this surfaces, in time to introduce a lockdown to quell those evil self  thinking  students.

Edited December 4, 2020 by gunderhill

[Walker88]

Given the trend in deaths, the US is likely to be suffering a 9-11 death rate each day sometime toward the middle of this month. 45 stated back in April that Covid would 'probably be gone in the fall', when EVERY expert said fall would be a problem. The experts were 100% right, 45 100% wrong. No surprise, I guess, as the clown is willfully ignorant and couldn't care less about the people he ostensibly governs.

 

Instead of discussing the virus rationally or mandating masks (see an odd Fox&Friends comment where the host compared deaths in mask-mandated counties in Kansas vs non-mandated...masks work, even Fox admits it), pumping up PPE production or leading in any way, 45 instead makes some whackjob 46 minute vid where he rants on about different conspiracies and nonsense re the election he lost badly.

 

He exhibits a total and complete failure of leadership and concern for anything other than his own ego.

 

And the people suffer for his self-centeredness and woeful insecurity. The CDC head now estimates the US will have 450,000 dead by February. (in comparison, the US lost around 420,000 total in WWII, from Dec '41 to August '45)

[Natai Beach]

10 minutes ago, gunderhill said:

its about trusting the numbers, and I don't, it's  not  about the amount do you really think the border  hoppers of the last 6  months between Myanmar and Thailand have not brought in hundreds if  not way more  cases? And  only  now this surfaces, in time to introduce a lockdown to quell those evil self  thinking  students.

 

So these “hundreds if not way more” cases were all asymptomatic? 
 

If you actually follow the real Thai news you will know they are all over and hyper about covid reporting.

I suspect your main/only news source is Thaivisa and reading the comments section where people just make stuff up with no proof and then others believe it as fact.

If you follow real thai news you will know that Prayut does not and can not control the press, although he does try. Thaivisa and the Nation tread very carefully, others don’t. It would be impossible to control covid reporting.
I was at a large Phuket hospital last week, and asked the doctor who informed me there were zero cases there. A more reliable source than your imagination. Thais love to gossip, if someone had covid everyone would know. 
 

Most of the border hoppers would be Burmese workers coming to Thailand. They dont mix socially much with Thais. Not high risk. 
The hooker bar workers who went to Burma because their work in Pattaya dried up are high risk as  they are in close physical contact with many slobbering all over them.
 

But anyway, instead of harping on about zero known deaths in Thailand, why not concentrate on the real issue, which is the nearly 3,000 deaths per day now in the USA and 150,000+ daily infections. 
 

In Thailand, no dead bodies piling up, no covid cases overwhelming the hospitals. Sorry to disappoint you. 

 

 

[impulse]

5 hours ago, placeholder said:

Sure. A highly scrutinized database has actually been falsified to promote a false narrative of the Covid-19 pandemic. What doesn't pass the sniff test are your suspicions.

 

So explain why the variation from one year to the next was actually higher in the years before Covid even arrived on the scene.  If the variation in the numbers are that high without Covid, how can you draw any conclusions from the year with Covid?

 

 

[placeholder]

18 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

So explain why the variation from one year to the next was actually higher in the years before Covid even arrived on the scene.  If the variation in the numbers are that high without Covid, how can you draw any conclusions from the year with Covid?

 

 

Link please to a reliable source.

Edited December 4, 2020 by placeholder

[impulse]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

19 minutes ago, impulse said:

So explain why the variation from one year to the next was actually higher in the years before Covid even arrived on the scene.  If the variation in the numbers are that high without Covid, how can you draw any conclusions from the year with Covid?

Link please to a relianle source.

 

We're discussing the data that's already been presented here.  

 

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, impulse said:

 

We're discussing the data that's already been presented here.  

 

So you're basing your criticism of cdc reporting based on the private non peer reviewed data of an anonymous person posting on Thaivisa.com. It is to laugh.

[impulse]

4 hours ago, placeholder said:

So you're basing your criticism of cdc reporting based on the private non peer reviewed data of an anonymous person posting on Thaivisa.com. It is to laugh.

 

The guy posted data put out by the CDC.  He didn't make it up. 

 

And yes, I challenge the veracity of the data based on the probability that year on year, deaths in a particular month rise and fall by over 20% in a population of 330 million people with 200-260K deaths in a month.  That kind of variation is not statistically reasonable without some explanation (like a really bad flu year)

 

And if the deaths vary that much year to year on normal years, the fact that they may vary some in a Covid year makes it impossible to draw Covid conclusions based on the overall death statistics.  The variations in 2020 are no greater than the variation of the years leading up to 2020.

 

Especially without accounting for the people who died during Covid because they didn't get treated for other health conditions, whether that's because the hospitals were closed to them, or they lost their health care insurance, they were afraid to go to hospital, or other factors.  And the people who have died because of conditions brought on by the lockdowns, like depression, poor diet, increased alcohol consumption, etc.

[NorthernRyland]

8 hours ago, placeholder said:

So you're basing your criticism of cdc reporting based on the private non peer reviewed data of an anonymous person posting on Thaivisa.com. It is to laugh.

I made software to count the raw numbers provided by the CDC. Is that a valid method? I don't know.  I merely did this because I was curious about how previous years compare and to see if I could reconstruct their graphs from their own data (I could not).

 

[NorthernRyland]

3 hours ago, impulse said:

And if the deaths vary that much year to year on normal years, the fact that they may vary some in a Covid year makes it impossible to draw Covid conclusions based on the overall death statistics.  The variations in 2020 are no greater than the variation of the years leading up to 2020.

 

COVID pushed people past the edge that were going to die in the coming few years. I'll bet good money that deaths trend 10-20% lower than average next year.

 

Hardly anyone died "of COVID" but rather due to complications from COVID due to being in an already weakened state. 550 people under 25 died in the US so far. That's basically nothing in a country of 330 million.

[NorthernRyland]

3 hours ago, impulse said:

And yes, I challenge the veracity of the data based on the probability that year on year, deaths in a particular month rise and fall by over 20% in a population of 330 million people with 200-260K deaths in a month.  That kind of variation is not statistically reasonable without some explanation (like a really bad flu year)

 

I really wish CDC had a better explanation for this instead of underreporting. Maybe they just wanted their graphs to look smooth? Seems silly but maybe.

 

Back to the OP of this post here is the graph from CNN. See what they did? Their data is from single days and it looks like data is dumped at intervals so they gather at certain days and create spikes.

 

 

Compare that to the CDC data (per WEEK data) which I show WITH weighting to account for data lag. CNN has presented their "data" to appear like deaths are nearing where they were in March-April. This is totally false unless the CDC is an unreliable source.

 

 

 

 

[simon43]

On 12/3/2020 at 10:37 PM, Natai Beach said:

The Thais are smart, they listened to medical/scientific advice and realized that covid is a virus. To stop the spread of a contagious virus it is very simple, you socially isolate as much as possible, you wear masks when that is impractical. The Thais controlled covid in under two months.

 

Farangs harped on about wearing masks, socially isolating, tracing etc because they have “rights”. Karen’s etc. They carried on like babies when asked to wear a mask, etc. They protested which actually took more effort than simply putting on a mask. They spread conspiracy theories, it was Bill Gates, 5G, a government plot, the Freemasons, the Illuminati etc etc 

They listened to politicians concerned only with getting re-elected. 

 

Covid 19 does not care about human rights. Covid 19 is not human. 
 

unfortunately now the farangs are spreading covid. The top 30 countries are 90% of infections and most of them are farang.
South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan etc etc covid is a minor problem health wise.  

 

But the farangs with 90% of the  daily infections are ruining the entire world economy. The sensible countries who reacted responsibly are now paying a massive price, waiting it out for the USA, UK, the South American counties and Europe to get their act together. 
 

it is a long and frustrating wait. 
 

Agree with this.  Look at Laos where I live.  Not a single Covid death and only a few dozen cases.  Laos had a very strict lockdown in the early days and the regulations were generally adhered to.  The lack of westerners also probably helped because it meant that the number of idiots who refused to follow the rules was small.

 

Now many of these foreigners have left the country, and while it's sad for local hospitality businesses that there are no international tourists, it means that the chances of new Covid cases triggered by people who don't follow health recommendations is lowered.

 

 

[sscc]

3 hours ago, simon43 said:

Agree with this.  Look at Laos where I live.  Not a single Covid death and only a few dozen cases.  Laos had a very strict lockdown in the early days and the regulations were generally adhered to.  The lack of westerners also probably helped because it meant that the number of idiots who refused to follow the rules was small.

 

Now many of these foreigners have left the country, and while it's sad for local hospitality businesses that there are no international tourists, it means that the chances of new Covid cases triggered by people who don't follow health recommendations is lowered.

 

 

 

Well done Laos 

[mtls2005]

The daily new case figures are staggering, to me anyway as I thought these were in the 100,000 range. Boy was I off.

 

Last two days

 

235,272   (deaths: 2,718)

220,643   (deaths: 2,921)

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

 

And given the record number of people who traveled during Thanksgiving, it seems like there will be a continued shift upwards?

 

The current president could save tens of thousands of lives were he to provide some leadership on this. And it would mollify history's view on him, casting him in a much more positive light.

 

 

 

 

[Sophon]

12 hours ago, NorthernRyland said:

 

I really wish CDC had a better explanation for this instead of underreporting. Maybe they just wanted their graphs to look smooth? Seems silly but maybe.

 

Back to the OP of this post here is the graph from CNN. See what they did? Their data is from single days and it looks like data is dumped at intervals so they gather at certain days and create spikes.

 

 

Compare that to the CDC data (per WEEK data) which I show WITH weighting to account for data lag. CNN has presented their "data" to appear like deaths are nearing where they were in March-April. This is totally false unless the CDC is an unreliable source.

 

 

 

 

 

Deaths in the U.S. from Corona are near where they were in April and will very soon be worse. The reporting is just catching up after the Thanksgiving holidays, which temporarily made the numbers look better than they really were.

 

From worldometers.info:

[XBroker]

All lies. The ER's are empty.

[XBroker]

Quote

The lack of westerners also probably helped because it meant that the number of idiots who refused to follow the rules was small.

 

Odd how if you're on the 'proper'  (gov. approved) side of the argument, you can hurl all kinds of insults at people on this forum..  ????

So, basically you're a conformist who does what they are told & beLIEves the gov. propaganda..? 

Got it..  I see a microchip in your future. ????

[Meat Pie 47]

On 12/4/2020 at 12:40 PM, impulse said:

 

We're discussing the data that's already been presented here.  

 

Here is a link for you

Coronavirus US: COVID named number one killer of Americans

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/coronavirus-us-covid-named-number-one-killer-of-americans/news-story/23348684ea16fc8c4761744bdfe6e174

[impulse]

On 12/4/2020 at 9:15 AM, NorthernRyland said:

I made software to count the raw numbers provided by the CDC. Is that a valid method? I don't know.  I merely did this because I was curious about how previous years compare and to see if I could reconstruct their graphs from their own data (I could not).

 

Kudos for trying and posting the results.  I salute what you did, but I'm afraid you started with flawed data.  You can tell it's flawed when you go back to the daily death counts.  You'll see that they have very few deaths on weekends.  If you read the fine print, you'll see that they compile the deaths by the date they're reported as opposed to the date they occurred.  Since fewer people are working on weekends, fewer reports are turned in.  That's why some graphs smooth the data with 7 day running averages.

 

Some months have 4 weekends.  Some have 4-1/2 weekends.  Some have 5 weekends.  That could easily account for the 25% variation from year to year for a given month.  (Except February, what's up with that?)  It would be interesting to see the monthly data smoothed out with a 3 month or a 6 month running average, and then maybe corrected for the number of days in the different months. 

 

But that's the kind of thing I used to do for money.  So I'm not curious enough to do it for free...