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Realistic or pie in the sky? AoT forecasts 330,000 flights and 31 million passengers this year


webfact

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4 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Is it realistic to assume they can find 30,998,000 domestic passengers ?

Half of that if you assume round trips within the country.  When I lived upcountry I'd fly BFV-DMK and back three times a year so that would be six  trips.  The flights were always full pre-Covid.

 

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Totally not realistic. If Thailand opened today completely, maybe five million tourists this year and most of them in Q4. Thailand holidays are usually booked many months in advance, not some weekend trip on short notice. Also not so many visitors during the summer months.  

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10 hours ago, webfact said:

 

Predictions for the longer term are 547,226 flights and 73.17 million passengers in 2022, 824,915 flights and 128.85 million passengers in 2023 and 923,925 flights in 2024 with 146.40 million passengers. 

 

 

Are they sure about these numbers? My calculations indicate they missed two or three flights.

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22 hours ago, webfact said:

Realistic or pie in the sky? AoT forecasts 330,000 flights and 31 million passengers this year

 

Very unrealistic. The full economic fallout is not even in effect yet. Many knock on effects will hit this year, particularly after they realize nearly no tourists are coming this year, and very few next year again. Property market will tank, many jobs will not return, there will likely be conflict in the region with China. 

 

They better start getting real and stop playing childish games. 

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If at the passing of one year, and their forecast is totally off, will AOT and TAT

people still have their jobs?   Will they come up with new and desperate slogans

to plead for some return of any tourists, from anywhere?  I thank a poster who 

told of how even  Bangkok has many closed businesses and boarded up areas,

as that is what my Thai relatives have said to me already.  They are surviving okay

as none of them work in the tourist business.  The locals still have to eat, and the computers

still have to be maintained, lots of businesses are still working okay. They are like 

us in Canada, still waiting for their first vaccine jab, and hopeful to get it before next year.

  Geezer

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There must be something in the Thai psyche that craves, or sees a use for, these predictions.

 

As some have said: maybe it's just government departments justifying their budget allocations.

 

I suspect it's governments giving hope, to prevent a total and immediate collapse of large sections of the economy - worse than has occured thus far.

 

The virus, with vaxing or the passage of time, may soon die off, like short-lived SARS and MERS. OR it might hang around, and seriously impact all areas of life, for years (or decades) to come - just no way of telling, as I see it.

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