Judgement Day - May 30

[Jai Dee]

Like it or not, the political Big Bang is set for May 30

It's been variously dubbed "Thailand's Political D-Day", "The Day of Reckoning" - even "Judgement Day".

Whatever the Constitution Tribunal decides, May 30 has become the centre of speculation upon which the country's political future hinges.

You could get academic and debate the implications of the 15-member judicial tribunal's verdict on the future of Thai politics - if the over 100 executives of the country's two largest political parties are found guilty and banned from running in elections for the next five years.

If the story at times sounds to be mired in technical legalities deliberately aimed at confusing the public at large, the issue boils down to one burning question: will Thaksin Shinawatra, ex-prime minister and former leader of the Thai Rak Thai Party, be allowed to run in the next general election?

The other related, but no less controversial question is: will the Democrat Party be dissolved along with the Thai Rak Thai Party? If so, will that mean that the leadership of both parties, including Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, will be barred from politics for the next five years?

Based on that "worst-case scenario", political pundits have had a field day over the past few weeks publicly dissecting the scenario whereby we are forced to choose between Chuan Leekpai (former premier from the Democrat Party) or Banharn Silapa-archa (former prime minister from the Chat Thai Party) to be our new political leader. And to turn that paradox into a "perfect (political) storm" scenario, what about General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh (former premier from the New Aspiration Party) as another possible candidate for the next premiership?

It would be amusing if it weren't so depressingly surreal.

The main charge is simple and clear-cut: the two parties paid smaller political groups to run in the last elections with ulterior motives to undermine the other side. Both Thai Rak Thai and the Democrats have denied the allegations.

What isn't as clear-cut is whether the Constitution Tribunal judges will consider the additional punitive measure imposed by the coup-makers after September 19, last year (Article No 3 of Announcement No 27 to amend the original 1998 Political Parties Act), which made it compulsory for all executive members of a party found guilty in this regard to be prohibited from politics for five years, applicable in this case.

The original penalty was merely to ban executive members from forming a new party or assuming an executive post within a party for a five-year period from the day a guilty verdict is handed down.

It was been argued by some constitutional law experts that if judicial precedent were any guide, the courts would not apply an amendment carrying a more severe punishment to an offence that had taken place before that amendment came into effect.

In other words, if the party's executive members had committed the offence before the clause stipulating a more severe penalty had come into effect, they would be subject to the penalty specified in the original act, and not the coup-makers' subsequent amendment. And that in practice means that Thaksin, barring any other barriers, which are numerous, along the way, may still be able to play an active role in politics in the next election.

But legality certainly won't be the only factor to be taken into consideration. Besides, the current panel of judges may not necessarily subscribe to that particular line of thought - which means the much-speculated and controversial political "Big Bang" may still come about.

With the threat of a violent confrontation from pro-Thaksin elements promising a massive protest movement against any negative verdict against Thai Rak Thai and the Democrat Party's vigorous defence against dissolution, the Surayud government and the Council of National Security (CNS) will have to step in to ensure social order no matter how the verdicts turn out.

At this very important juncture in Thailand's political development, it is vital that due judicial process must not be allowed to be subject to threats and counter-threats from the parties concerned.

This is no time to allow political pressure, no matter where it comes from, to subvert the professional judgement of the panel of judges charged with the unenviable crucial responsibility to hand down a verdict on one of the country's most contentious political issues.

Editorial Opinion by Suthichai Yoon - The Nation - 17 May 2007

[Mid]

This is no time to allow political pressure, no matter where it comes from, to subvert the professional judgement of the panel of judges charged with the unenviable crucial responsibility to hand down a verdict on one of the country's most contentious political issues.

I believe HM covered this in his birthday speach to the Judges last year .

[Jai Dee]

Tribunal's ruling set to change the face of Thai politics

What will the face of Thai politics look like after the general election?

Will political stability be restored? To answer these two questions, you have to anticipate what will happen on May 30 when the Constitution Tribunal rules over the fate of the Democrat Party and the Thai Rak Thai Party. Both have been accused of allegedly being involved in election fraud last year. If they are found guilty, both parties will be dissolved and their executive members will be barred from politics for five years.

If you talk to members of the Democrat Party, you get the impression that none of them believe that there is adequate justification for the Constitution Tribunal to dissolve Thailand's oldest party. They say that the charges against their party are not credible at all.

If you talk to Thai Rak Thai members, you get a quick answer that the final curtain will inevitably fall on their heads. Most members have already jumped ship to new parties. If you talk to members of the Council for National Security (CNS), you have to read between the lines, but eventually, you'll get the impression that the coup leaders - to be fair for everybody, as they would argue - would like both the Democrat and the Thai Rak Thai parties to be dissolved.

The political landscape will change dramatically if the country's two largest political parties are dissolved. You have to put yourself in the shoes of the coup leaders in order to understand their dilemma. The military strongmen will eventually have to cede power and allow the country to return to the path of democracy.

When that happens, the military leaders will have had to make three things certain. First, they must survive in the new Thai-style democratic order with a sort of protection from the new government that they back from behind the scenes. Second, they must get rid of Thaksin Shinawatra, who is their number one enemy, once and for all. Thaksin's return is out of the question. And third, just in case, they might continue to have their hands in the cookie jar.

The Thai Rak Thai Party will have to be dissolved for sure because the coup was staged to uproot the political influence of Thaksin in the first place. But why is there a need to dissolve the Democrat Party as well?

As we have witnessed throughout this episode, the Democrat Party has been up in arms against Thaksin and his Thai Rak Thai. Thaksin is the enemy of the Democrat Party as much as he is the enemy of the CNS. In short, the Democrats and the CNS share a common enemy, who, with a huge amount of money in his war chest, is still waging a highly sophisticated war from the outside. So why don't the two get together to go after Thaksin?

Things do not work out so easily. The CNS does not trust the Democrat Party. They are not sure that they can control the Democrats if Abhisit Vejjajiva were elected prime minister in the next general election. The Democrats also do not have a tradition of cutting political deals with the military in power.

If the Democrat Party is destroyed, then the military may hope to properl either Somkid Jatusripitak of the Thammathipatai Party or Somsak Thepsuthin of the Matchima Party into power. Somkid and Somsak used to be Thaksin's top lieutenants. They have now broken away from the remnants of the Thai Rak Thai Party in order to chart out new political fortunes of their own.

The field of candidates for the position of the next prime minister of the Kingdom of Thailand remains wide open. Abhisit appears to have a strong chance if the Democrat Party escapes a harsh verdict. The public still has a perception that he is young and inexperienced or that he does not have a strong performance record. But he is the only legitimate choice that the Democrat Party has in its drawer. Many have discounted the chances of Chuan Leekpai making a comeback for a third term, however he was earlier seen as a possible dark horse.

Thaksin desperately wants to return to Thailand to reclaim his political power. If he were to be allowed to run in the election, he would certainly win. He and Abhisit are theoretically strong contenders for the premiership.

But you have to rule out any possibility of a Thaksin comeback.

Criminal charges are pending against him. Before the general election is held, the military leaders have to make sure 100 per cent that they have Thaksin on the hook.

If both the Democrat and Thai Rak Thai parties are dissolved, there will be a huge political vacuum in Thai politics. But then you'll witness Somkid emerging from the turmoil to become Thailand's prime minister via the backing of ex-Thai Rak Thai Party members and most importantly the military rulers.

If that were to be the case, the military rulers will be happy that they have finally completed their jigsaw puzzle in order to remain in power. But the big question is: can the military trust Somkid and Somsak, who have been strong allies of Thaksin from the outset, or can they be certain that Thaksin will not make a comeback to repay them in kind for all of the inconvenience they have caused him?

Editorial Opinion by Thanong Khanthong - The Nation - 18 May 2007

[Jai Dee]

Judges must make no compromises on 'Judgement Day'

His Majesty the King's televised remarks to judges of the Supreme Administrative Court last week essentially drove home the political fragility that the country faces.

Not since the verdict was pending in the assets concealment case against then prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has the country been in such a state of political suspense.

It shouldn't come as any surprise if some overly concerned families are beginning to stock up on food or if panicky investors are offloading shares in their portfolios ahead of the so-called "Judgement Day" tomorrow. For these people, signs of trouble are too obvious to ignore.

Despite all the assurances from the government and the military to the contrary, the spectre of street violence hanging over the ruling by the Constitutional Tribunal on the fate of the Thai Rak Thai and Democrat parties cannot be underestimated. Intelligence reports have all pointed to the possibility of coordinated agitation by Thaksin's supporters, who want nothing short of a total vindication for the former prime minister and his party.

Thaksin may be in exile thousands of miles away, but there is no denying what the political machine he left behind is capable of doing at the snap of his fingers. Thaksin definitely has not been funnelling in huge amounts of money to remnants of his Thai Rak Thai Party and its grassroots network for charitable purposes. The former leader has too much at stake both in terms of his wealth and his political survival to watch events unfold from afar without trying to interfere.

Thaksin made it clear in his recent interview with a community radio station with avowed loyalty to the former prime minister that he was not going to give up without a fight. Of course, despite all the bitter feelings he generated under his five-year authoritarian rule, the businessman-turned-politician had no regrets to offer. It's no surprise then that he chooses to see all the charges of abuse of power and conflicts of interest made against him and his family as nothing more than political retribution. And he has fervently urged his supporters back home to see it that way too.

While the potential of political backlash shouldn't in any way influence the verdict of the nine judges on the Constitution Tribunal, His Majesty has, nevertheless, reminded the panel to be mindful of its consequences. There is a general consensus that whatever ruling is handed down by the Constitution Tribunal, it will have a far-reaching impact on this country's political future.

The worst-case scenario is that both the Democrat and Thai Rak Thai parties are dissolved and all party executives banned from politics for five years in accordance with Decree No 27 introduced by the Council for National Security (CNS) in the aftermath of the September 19 coup. Not only would the whole lot of political veterans who were instrumental in shaping Thailand's politics for the past several years be denied any political role, but it would also set the stage for potential street violence.

It's an open secret that some generals in the CNS are praying for exactly that to happen. In one stroke, they would be able to get rid of Thaksin and his Thai Rak Thai Party once and for all and at the same time assure the military a dominant role in the subsequent political realignment. In other words, political fragmentation would allow the military to hold sway over future politics.

There have been talks lately about a possible compromise whereby selective punishment would be meted out to the leaders of the two parties. Only those directly implicated would be targeted. While a handful of party executives (most likely the party's leaders, secretaries-general and a few others) would be banned from politics, those who survive could immediately found and register new parties for the promised election.

Though this proposed compromise would be less painful and shocking than a wholesale purge of the two parties, there is no guarantee that it would end the ongoing agitation efforts by Thaksin supporters. There is also a big question mark as to whether the Constitution Tribunal can be selective in its judgement and whether its ruling should be influenced by political considerations.

Despite all the threats of violence and the unpalatable political consequences, there is the rule of law that needs to be upheld. His Majesty's caution that whatever the ruling there would be damaging fallout shouldn't in any way be interpreted as a hint toward compromise. His emphasis on "correctness" should also not be lost on anyone.

More often than not, Thailand has seen the rule of law bent to accommodate political expediency. We have tended to tackle problems or deal with crises the "Thai way" and have lost the opportunity to set legal or political benchmarks that would help us become better prepared for new challenges.

The nine judges of the Constitution Tribunal have Thailand's political future in their hands. And this definitely is no time for political expediency or compromise. Whatever their verdict is, it must be based on facts. At this very crucial political junction, we have no other choice but to the let the rule of law prevail.

Source: The Nation - 29 May 2007