Thailand expects 40 million international tourists by 2024

[spidermike007]

I expect my business to grow by 500%, in the next few years. And I expect to inherit millions from distant relatives, that I don't even know. 

 

Dreams, hopes, expectations and ridiculous projections, do not make it so. Real work is required, by real men and women, with talent, experience and competency. Woops. 

 

Major changes need to be made, if Thailand wants to continue to enjoy the cash cow of tourism. Travelers these days simply have too many choices. Creativity is required. Progress needs to be made. Thailand cannot continue to be one of the least progressive nations on earth, and expect foreigners to tolerate that degree of ignorance. These seeds were planted over a decade ago. The hapless army has accelerated the process dramatically. If Thailand had a qualified health minister, and a slightly intelligent tourism minister, they would realize, that when a nation shuts down for 18 months, then announces, we are open again, it is a complicated process. And after a high percentage of Thailand's target market is devastated by a long, drawn out pandemic, nothing is simple. 

 

Expect 2 million tourists in 2022. With no restrictions. Maybe up to 5 million in 2023 and 2024. It is unlikely Thailand will see even close to 40 million within 20 years from now. 
 
The Thai army. Moving Thailand backwards, and inflicting untold pain on it's people. Time to go, guys. The people need competency, and they are speaking loudly now. 

No sacrifices are being made or contemplated. No luxury or wine taxes are being reduced. Nothing is being done to address prior problems, or elevate the experience. Combined with a bloated baht, inconsistent and draconian immigration policy, major international egg on the face from recent decisions pertaining to the youth and opposition protestors, no way forward politically, horrendous air quality and environmental policies (or lack thereof), and a truly regressive dinosaur government, Thailand is losing its appeal for many. 

And the longer they wait, the more Thailand WILL be forgotten. 

[metisdead]

Some posts using trolling images have been removed.

 

Inflammatory posts and the replies have been removed.

 

A post using ALL CAPS has been removed, please turn off your Caps Lock when posting as there is no need to shout. 

[digibum]

7 hours ago, newnative said:

Nevertheless, remarks on Thailand's tourism on T-V almost always have a western slant, as if only western tourism somehow counted.

Most of it is even more self-serving than that.  
 

It’s like the people that complain that not allowing unlimited back-to-back tourist visas will kill tourism.  Given that the average stay is 11 days, it’s quite obvious that such a policy will have little impact on actual tourism.  It might prevent some people from living in Thailand illegally, but it won’t hurt tourism.  
 

Dual pricing has been going on for, well, forever.  But the people who complain the loudest and shout about how it will destroy tourism are often those that live here.  They just don’t want to pay the higher fees so they attempt to scare Thailand into claiming it’s going to kill tourism.  
 

They’re like someone who goes to a Vegas casino and insists on speaking to the pit boss to tell them that the double zero on the roulette wheel is a ripoff and will keep tourists from playing.  LOL.  

[digibum]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

Dreams, hopes, expectations and ridiculous projections, do not make it so.

Spends the first part of the post ridiculing the Thai government’s forecasts for being unrealistic.  
 

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

Expect 2 million tourists in 2022. With no restrictions. Maybe up to 5 million in 2023 and 2024. It is unlikely Thailand will see even close to 40 million within 20 years from now. 

Spends the rest of post making forecasts based off no data and obviously flawed logic.  
 

China and ASEAN nations can easily send more than 2 million visitors in 2022 if there are no restrictions and that’s still a 90% decline from what they sent in 2019.  
 

While I think 2024 is aggressive in getting back to 2019 levels, not being able to get 2 million in 2022 is blatantly misguided.  

[connda]

On 3/25/2021 at 3:17 PM, webfact said:

Speaking on Wednesday, Arkhom Termpittayapaisith said that he expects 40 million international tourists to arrive in Thailand in 2024

That's ambiguous enough to be plausible.  Khun FinMin must have studied TAT's public affairs announcements well enough not to make a total fool of himself by presenting a date welllll out into the future.  But 40 million?  There weren't 40 million tourists pre-Covid. 
Just wonderin' if Khun FinMin has made a recent visit to Anutin's wacky-tobaccy farms as he obviously doesn't have a firm grasp on the current realities of what "New Normal" means for future travel no less future tourism. Maybe they can build a super highway and a bullet-train to China by 2024 otherwise?  Just a pipe-dream.

[Fex Bluse]

Finally a more realistic hope. Seems the Thai government has been learning from Thai Visa News. 

 

They might still be too optimistic, particularly with the possibility of military conflict in the region becoming very real. 

[Stargeezr]

I wish Thailand good luck in their future, but here in Canada, it seems that the younger crowd of people are 

being affected worse by the new variants of the corona virus.  There are also more deaths from this virus and I am

so concerned that the younger people still do not think that they will be badly affected.  I am glad that people are getting

vaccinated now, but it will take until next year for all of our country to be vaccinated, and that is if there are no big

delays in the vaccines arriving to Canada.  I really have my doubts that anywhere in the world will get the same amount of tourists

that were travelling around, even for the next 5 years.  I am happy that you will need to be vaccinated in order to travel internationally.

   There are still restrictions for local domestic travel in a lot of Canada, and that will continue until the number of people getting

infected is a lot less.  Today the numbers are surging, and it does not look great.  I do hope to travel this coming Winter, but only if

the number of people both in Canada and at my destination are mostly vaccinated, and the virus is not continually mutating

and affecting us as it is doing today.  Good luck to  all.

Geezer

[dbrenn]

Heaven forbid. Mass tourism is a scourge that ruins all the places the tourists comes to see.

[Nsp64]

On 3/26/2021 at 7:14 AM, Kerryd said:

Agreed.
Keep  in mind that pre-pandemic they were almost at the 40 mil arrivals mark.
IF the vaccinations work (iffy as they never really had a chance to properly research and test them before they went into mass production) they will start letting people back in. And around the world, life will return to a semblance of normalcy and people who've been cooped up at home will be itching to travel.

(A lot of people have this weird notion that the entire planet has been out of work since the crisis began and therefore have no money. Which is really dumb. Even in Thailand, the vast majority of people are still working. Just not as many in the touristy spots, which some seem to think is the only thing people do in this country even though International Tourism only accounts for 12-16% of the total GDP. Gee, I wonder what makes up the other 84-88% of the GDP if tourism is the only thing keeping the country running ?) 

3 years to get back to where they were at the end of 2019 basically. Once the virus has been contained (more or less) and things start getting back to normal, people will start travelling again.

And 99.9999% won't even know about "random" lockdowns (which is BS to begin with as there were NO "random" lockdowns), which wouldn't be an issue anyways. If the vaccinations and containment have been effective.
Just like 99.9999% won't have a clue about the racism present. (Most of the tourists that come here have no clue about things like double pricing because they never see it. It's the expats and "genuine tourists" living here on multiple tourist visas that see the things like foreigners being charged 5-10 times more than the locals to see the same trees and waterfalls or whatever.)

THINK about it. Tourism numbers dropped the year after the Tsunami in the Andaman Sea (which devastated Phuket amongst other places). Up to 2004 the numbers had been steadily increasing. They dropped in 2005 (because of the Tsunami) and then reached a new high in 2006. One year was all it took before they started getting even more tourists than before the Tsunami.

Even when all the problems were happening with the "red" and "yellow" shirts, with shootings and grenades being thrown, the airport being taken over, the (former) PM fleeing to escape a prison sentence and military coups - the number of arrivals kept climbing !! (Apparently the tourists didn't pay any attention to the TVF members who back then claimed that all those things would kill tourism.)

In fact, the numbers were climbing so fast that within a couple years of opening the new Suvarnabhumi airport, they had already reached it's maximum capacity and they had to start the first expansion years earlier than originally planned. Phase 2 was also started early and they just announced approval for another major upgrade.
(One of the reasons U-Tapao was expanded and the road networks improved in Rayong/Chon Buri was to try and divert some of the air traffic from Suvarnabhumi to U-Tapao to reduce the strain.)

They won't get 40 mil arrivals overnight. If they are able to let people in this year, they might get a couple million by the end of the year. Next year would be more. 2023 might, if things are going well, be around half of the pre-pandemic level and maybe by the end of 2024 they could be close to the 40 mil mark again.

Here's a clue. A couple months ago it was announced that China had already passed the amount of exports (monthly) it had been doing before the pandemic. Which means two things.
Most of China is still working (and probably dying to go on holiday somewhere).
Most of the world is still buying whatever China is exporting (meaning most of the world is still working and making money).

But it all hinges on the vaccinations and containment of the virus. If those are effective, tourists will start returning to Thailand and they will - easily - pass the numbers they were receiving before pandemic.

And all the "doom and gloomers" who think everything is the "straw that will break the back" of tourism in Thailand will have to find a new straw to whine about. Just like they do whenever there is an alcohol ban and they chime up that it will (yawn) be that "straw" then have to watch as even more tourists arrive despite their claims.

 

I dislike this post probably because its so damned accurate.

You've hit the nail squarely on the head even though I am one of those nay sayers you mention.

Sometimes it takes a voice of reason to open the eyes and see another perspective...........cheers.

[Bangkocker]

On 3/26/2021 at 5:11 PM, newnative said:

     So true; I chuckle, too.  Throw in India and some other Asian countries and it's closer to 25 million.  Meanwhile, Europe and North America is a fraction of that.   Nevertheless, remarks on Thailand's tourism on T-V almost always have a western slant, as if only western tourism somehow counted.

      Earlier in this thread someone remarked that tourism will remain dead in Thailand in part because of the cost of long-distance travel.  Never mind that many of those 25 million tourists in 2019 had flights of 6 hours or less.  Bangkok to Tokyo, 6 hours.  Beijing, 5.2 hours.  Mumbai, 4.2 hours.  Shanghai, 3.2 hours.  Seoul, 5.3 hours.  Etc.

    In addition to long flights being a supposed tourism killer, often air pollution, the political situation, over-run facilities, dual-pricing, strength of the baht, and better bargains elsewhere will be thrown out, as well.  None of this, as you say, had put the brakes on Asian tourism to Thailand, pre-covid, and none of it will likely do so in the future once things open up again.  I spent a drearily smoggy, drizzly, cold winter week in China a couple years ago and when I got on the plane back to warm, sunny Thailand I could see why the jet was filled with Chinese making a short escape.

Oh look - get real folks - Westerners, Indians, Chinese and Asians, Europeans - Who Cares !! Fact is - everyone that used to go to Thailand for some respite and 'tenderness' will go en huge mass.

[Bangkocker]

On 3/26/2021 at 5:50 PM, fa lang 66 said:

You could get a job with the TAT with that BS.

The prime destination and by the end of 2022 comment tells everyone that maybe your the boofhead.

Thailand has been on the decline since 2016 and unless they rain in the Baht. People will just stay away.

Hahhah - Like I said - if the shoe fits wear it. And your crystal ball was purchased where?? Why are you making these outrageous predictions, which you seemingly feel are more meritorious than mine?? Fact is: Most have been imprisoned in their homelands, and are dying to spend their savings in Thailand. Once the green light is given - millions upon millions will go to Thailand to spend, spend, spend and seek soft comforting arms and night time activities (and temple visits). Thailand, in spite of all the misers wailing that BKK and Thailand is too expensive - moaning  about exchange rates bla bla  are in error. It's a great value place (now and  in the foreseeable future) will continue to be (whilst the daily pay of the average Thai is 300 - 500 thb a day). No question about oh cynical one.