Worst case scenario: Thailand faces 28,000 new COVID-19 cases PER DAY

[Bobydog]

6 hours ago, ezzra said:

The day the government will finally pull their finger out and take this Covid business seriously and take decisive and painful measures to eradicate this Covid thingy once and for all we all be hearing of it for many months  if not years to come...  

I fear that is goin to be too late. Say, has anyone checked the till to see if there is any money to buy vaccine, check what happened to Thai Airways...

[Ploddo1111]

I'm just happy I got out of there one year ago

My kids at school and loving a normal life down here in New Zealand.

Lost the wife the car my house my career but my kids have a normal life well worth it

Good luck to the white boys left there to deal with the Thai way when dealing with COVID.

 

[Dart12]

Are they really forcing people that test positive, but are in no need of actual care, into these "hospitals" ?  Looks a lot like prison to me.
 

 

[Bkk Brian]

8 minutes ago, TheGeniusFarang said:

Suuuuuuure. Reminds me of the blokes that said:

-We will have 2M deaths in 2020!!!
- The mortality rate is over 4%!!
- Hospitals will be overrun
- People will fall dead in the streets!

None of which happened, leave it up to the sickly and fearful to fantasize that the sky is falling, while everyone else with a brain is enjoying life. 

-We will have 2M deaths in 2020!!! - Check (nearly 3 million currently) 
- The mortality rate is over 4%!! ? Who said that?
- Hospitals will be overrun - Check (many countries this was the case)
- People will fall dead in the streets! Who said that?

 

[Bkk Brian]

55 minutes ago, Joinaman said:

 

if we have these large increase in infections, why do we not have a corresponding increase in ICU admissions and in deaths ?

Maybe there is an increase in ICU how can you say there is not?

 

Deaths always have a lag in time surely you know that? Its only been a week since this new wave started

[pixelaoffy]

25 minutes ago, Dart12 said:

Are they really forcing people that test positive, but are in no need of actual care, into these "hospitals" ?  Looks a lot like prison to me.
 

 

Yup. Don't take a test... Only if you are really ill and have to go hospital ..steer clear of the places

[ukrules]

2 hours ago, natway09 said:

I estimated 2,000 cases a day by end by the 20th. 

May need to ahve a reassessment now ?........I hope not !!!

 

What you will see depends entirely on the amount of testing being done, there's no chance at all that it's not already well over 2000 cases per day.

 

[Elkski]

31 minutes ago, Dart12 said:

Are they really forcing people that test positive, but are in no need of actual care, into these "hospitals" ?  Looks a lot like prison to me.
 

 

Now this sort of group resort could attract tourists.   

I hope for the best in Thailand.  Some of you guys just don't understand how this virus works.   I've seen the numbers in my own state population of  under 3 million.  4000 cases/day was the peak.  Now down to 500ish.  Last July we were starting to breaking the 1000/ day numbers.  I worry that this strain of the virus may deal a big blow, songkran timing was the worst imaginable. 

How would anyone needing a covid test for a flight out of Thailand get one now?

This Dr who's #1 bullet point is to stop provincial travel.  This seems like he maybe called before the higher ups for a behind the shed talk.   

[hotchilli]

9 hours ago, webfact said:

Dr Sophon said that in order to reduce the number of new infections, four measures are needed:

 

1. Reduce social gatherings and stop all but essential inter-provincial travel
2. Pro-active screening and vaccination distribution
3. Social distancing, mask wearing, hand washing and use of ThaiChana and MorChana apps under the DMHTTA guidelines.
4. Work from home for employees

Expect the worst then.... 4 things that aren't going to happen.

[Rocking Robert]

Thailand has about the same population as the UK.The UK has 127,000 deaths Thailand has 97 I think they’re doing a pretty damn good job handling this thing

[DLock]

2 hours ago, todlad said:

Would you care to share your copy of the DDC model with the rest of us?

 

It's a guess Sizzlechest, based on run rates over the last week.

 

Why, what is your prediction?

 

 

[kwilco]

I hear there is a confirmed case on Ko Samui, but I can't find any official conformation in English Language.

Anyone know about this?

[hugocnx]

It's yo-yoing isn't it? When finally there are decreasing numbers of Cov cases, there is another wave coming with this time again large numbers which I call fear mongering.

In this way there will never come an end to this Peyton Place drama. Please inform yourselves what is going on.

[Rocking Robert]

3 hours ago, Dogmatix said:

This could get out of hand this time.  Despite utterly incompetent management and various corrupt behaviours that exacerbated or even caused the previous waves, they have been extremely lucky to avoid a much worse epidemic so far.  It is very possible that their luck will run out this time and the Thai people will be forced to reap the malignant harvest their leaders have sown for them.  It is utterly pathetic to see them talking about pie in the sky plans for tourists to come back to be ripped off once again when they have made no plans to achieve herd immunity through vaccination and are only going through the motions in the hope that other countries will so the heavy lifting to eliminate the pandemic for them. Why would anyone want to visit such a lackadaisical country where a severe outbreak could occur at any moment?  The news that the 250 man military appointed Senate has jumped the vaccination queue says it all. 

I sure hope you don’t live in Thailand

[karunasup]

where is the sharp tongued Health Minister? Too scared to criticize his own kind? Chicken-hearted man.

[elliss]

7 hours ago, shady86 said:

Worst case scenario, just stop all testing and there will be no cases, manipulate all the numbers so everything looks normal. 

 

     That was the procedure  for Covid , last year ...

     That was a trial run ..

     This time ,  Thai Goverment allows .

       Unlimited travel restrictions  on Songkran Festival .

      Thais are , jam packed on the buses from BKK , to Issan .

        I fear , the worse ...

[schvonsky1]

9 hours ago, Orac said:

So:

 

Wave 2  Samut Songkran mainly migrant workers - fence them in dormitories with barbed wire to stop spread.

 

Wave 3 Bangkok Hi/So middle class entertainment venues - send them to the islands to party....

Just get the nation vaccinated stop been numbskulls it’s that simple 

[placeholder]

9 hours ago, tingtong said:

The "worse case" scenario is grossly underestimated.

Right now still too far from that it may seem crazy...

 

For example I take my native Hungary.

3rd wave peak nearly 10000 new infected found daily, 9.5 million population.

 

If Thailand at " worse case" about to match that, for population size, equal to about 70000 new infected daily.

 

Given that testing is slow here, the chance is even higher many can spread the virus, undetected for longer.

 

But I don't fear such worse case. The new censoring will kick in well before.

 

If all countries that had roughly the same number of people experienced the same rate of infections your comment comment would make some sense. Not even countries of disparate size experience the same rate of infections .So clearly there are other factors that affect infection rates.

[MrJ2U]

Bad news about Sinovac:

 

 

Home  International

• NEWS
• INTERNATIONAL

CHINESE OFFICIALS SAY CHINESE VACCINES’ EFFECTIVENESS LOW

By

 Associated Press

 -

April 11, 2021 1:00 pm

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PM Prayut Chan-o-cha holds a vial during the welcoming ceremony for Sinovac vaccines at Suvarnabhumi Airport on Feb. 24, 2021.

BEIJING (AP) — In a rare admission of the weakness of Chinese coronavirus vaccines, the country’s top disease control official says their effectiveness is low and the government is considering mixing them to give them a boost.

Chinese vaccines “don’t have very high protection rates,” said the director of the China Centers for Disease Control, Gao <deleted>, at a conference Saturday in the southwestern city of Chengdu.

Beijing has distributed hundreds of millions of doses in other countries while also trying to promote doubt about the effectiveness of Western vaccines.

“It’s now under formal consideration whether we should use different vaccines from different technical lines for the immunization process,” Gao said.

 

The effectiveness rate of a coronavirus vaccine from Sinovac, a Chinese developer, at preventing symptomatic infections has been found to be as low as 50.4% by researchers in Brazil. By comparison, the vaccine made by Pfizer has been found to be 97% effective.

 

[Caldera]

I think a problem with such a projection is that the current figures seem to be grossly understated.

 

Also, just reiterating the measures from the first lockdown (like a travel ban), while failing to impose them this time around, just means that the virus is given a head start that will be difficult to recover from. 

[Miami007]

A'll of the models generated throughout the pandemic have not worked out. We have been told many times that hospitals will run out of beds "within days" - really never came to fruition on a grand scale. Germany even reduced the number of hospital beds in 2020 (closed hospitals) and still doesn't see a shortage.

 

These models have the same chance to predict the winning Lotto numbers.

 

[MrJ2U]

7 hours ago, internationalism said:

that high figures infected means around 150 deaths daily.

already the last week in bangkok hospitals beds were full and shortage of tests.

those field hospitals will take time to arrange. It's not only beds, but personel and basic equipment and supplies of ppe

 

Most importantly make sure there's enough oxygen tanks.  

[Raphael Hythlodaeus]

7 hours ago, Smilermike said:

They have to start acting positively to rid this from Thailand

An impossibility to both act positively but even if they did, impossible to eliminate the virus due to mutations. 

Edited April 12, 2021 by Raphael Hythlodaeus

[TheFishman1]

What the hell is the government doing TIT

[todlad]

59 minutes ago, DLock said:

 

It's a guess Sizzlechest, based on run rates over the last week.

 

Why, what is your prediction?

 

 

And you recommend we all vote for your guess based on run rates that might or might not be appropriate.

 

I have no prediction and neither have you.

 

Every country in the world learned very quickly that no one has a clue. Remember Gold Standard Singapore? They fell apart spectacularly when their appalling treatment of their migrant worker community smacked them in the face.

 

You and I have no idea of the detail of the DDC model so we really cannot assess it. I don't wish to be seen as an apologist for anyone but madcap pronouncements help no one.

[thailand49]

9 hours ago, Ventenio said:

when i read "worst," i think about it like "always" and "never".....  it is the worst.

 

the worst case scenario, to me, is everyone dies, the Earth explodes, the Universe is eaten by a black hole, and 711 stops selling beer!!!!

 

28,000......28,001 is impossible?  lol

The end is coming let me go out with a bang, where is that club Krystal and get it open quick again!  ????

[Donga]

Let's see if this turns out be the huge wave Thailand was "lucky" enough to avoid previously, or whether they can bring it under control in a reasonable time frame say 2 months. Which is my projection, why:

1. Govt is not so ineffectual as some portray as they have the contact tracing capabilities, strong quarantine processes and health volunteers to assist, particularly in the provinces.
2. Thai society (apart from HiSos, a distinct minority) are community conscious and will don the masks, social distance more effectively than the Europeans and most other countries.

Be personally responsible, like most Thais, and by June it will be like it was for most of the time, compared to the rest of the world. The numbers are still controllable and well below what many countries have endured.
 

Edited April 12, 2021 by Donga

[ThailandRyan]

11 minutes ago, TheFishman1 said:

What the hell is the government doing TIT

Twiddling their thumbs it appears.  No word from the quarantined Minister of Health, nor from Prawit, which is very strange.

[robsamui]

[spidermike007]

Sophon Iamsirithaworn, the deputy director-general of the Department of Disease Control (DDC) is guilty of panic mongering. Take away his medical license, and imprison him. The sooner the better. The population is already in a frenzy. He is just whipping them up, to a fever pitch. Lock him up. 

 

Likely too little, too late. Prayuth blew it back in December. 

 

We will never forget Samut. Out with the Prayuth regime.

 

That should become the national mantra. 

Edited April 12, 2021 by spidermike007