BANGKOK (NNT) - The Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC) expects a new state-private vaccination plan and good export prospects may help Thailand secure 1.5-3% GDP growth this year despite economic uncertainties caused by the third wave of Covid-19.

 

TCC chairman Sanan Angubolkul said if vaccine procurement and distribution go as planned, along with better tourism in the fourth quarter, GDP will go up. Under this assumption, GDP growth may be as high as 3% in the third quarter and rise to 4% during the last three months of this year.

 

He said if the third outbreak lasts for 2-3 months, business groups predict it will cause damage worth 100-150 billion baht a month. However, the industrial sector will not be directly affected as the government is trying to avoid a broad lockdown.

 

Mr. Sanan also based his prediction on exports, which are expected to grow more than 4% this year because of a global economic recovery and vaccinations, and believed the economic impact will be smaller than last year.

 

 

 

 

 

-- © Copyright NNT 2021-05-02

 

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19 minutes ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

a new state-private vaccination plan and good export prospects

the only way out of this is to vaccinate everyone in Thailand ASAP

 

the west and Countries that account for 90% of your foreign tourism are already months ahead of Thailand on vaccine rollout, you are being left behind through incompetent leadership corruption and greed.

Smoking some crazy weed I think.  These guys never miss a chance to toot the horn of Money, Money, Money.  Give it a rest boys.   

I read as the government acquires the vaccines having stopped the private sector doing so, this means the appropriate commissions are paid to those with a seat at the trough. Government then mandates all expats to get vaccinated by private hospitals. Private hospitals buy vaccines from government, topping up the trough as they do so. Then the private hospitals realising they have a captive market charge 10,000baht per shot. Government then mandates follow up shots every year, thus keeping GDP moving. I hope I am wrong, but TIT.

 

Cheers

India has just been shut off. There's some reports that India produces about 70% of entire global vaccines supply. If that's the case, you can order whatever you want, you aren't getting it anytime soon... As such, whether government allows private companies import vaccines or not, doesn't make any difference now. Not them nor the government can get any except possibly some that are made in China, and locally produced ones in a month or 2 from now.

59 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Smoking some crazy weed I think.  These guys never miss a chance to toot the horn of Money, Money, Money.  Give it a rest boys.   

That is their job, to give positive forecasts hoping that enough people believe in them, and. if nothing goes wrong, it may well work.

 

OTOH I don't believe it will work if the government keeps stinking its oar in and changing things on a day by day, week by week basis.

 

I doubt if many Thais will take that much notice anyway. They are more interested in keeping/getting a job, putting food on the table, keeping the roof over their heads and their kids in school when it re-opens.

"Vaccination Plan to Drive Growth"

 

With at least 15% of its GDP missing, thanks to the death of tourism, one wonders how the Thai economy could actually grow? (unless they compare it to the second half of 2020)

 

Vaccination is not going to change anything to that, since it won't add anything to the GDP.

Edited May 2, 20215 yr by Brunolem